OT: Everything COVID19 - PART 6

[Micklebot]

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[YouGotAStuGoing]

What’s the alternative to living and working through this virus like we are doing now?

@Sensmileletsgo I don't think there is a clean and easy one. It's certainly NOT re-opening high traffic areas like sit-down restaurants. I think this is as good as we're going to get, but it doesn't work nearly as effectively without public buy-in. As long as people make the conscious choice to be selfish and not care about the people around them, we'll be stuck in a holding pattern until a reliable vaccine hits the market. And even then, anti-vaxxers will slow the process.

 

[JD1]

@Sensmileletsgo I don't think there is a clean and easy one. It's certainly NOT re-opening high traffic areas like sit-down restaurants. I think this is as good as we're going to get, but it doesn't work nearly as effectively without public buy-in. As long as people make the conscious choice to be selfish and not care about the people around them, we'll be stuck in a holding pattern until a reliable vaccine hits the market. And even then, anti-vaxxers will slow the process.

Conscious choice to be selfish?

What is it you are referring to here?

 

[Karl Eriksson]

Are people taking OC transpo through all this? Ridership must have fallen massively.

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

Conscious choice to be selfish?

What is it you are referring to here?

I’m referring to the choice to walk around unmasked, to spread conspiracy theories like “The virus is lab-made” and the choice to downplay the severity of this virus when it’s killing people indiscriminately. These choices are all selfish and actively harm community efforts to prevent the spread.

 

[NHL Dude 120]

In hockey concerns at least I don’t want rookies making their debut during covid.

I also wonder how long this second wave will last?

 

[Sens]

At least the next decade... the economy is shattered..

Social Services are going to get wrecked
People in poverty will have no help

Covid ended small business so big corporations like Walmart and Amazon control the entire market

I’m just happy I did not open by own restaurant like I had planned... would have wrecked me... Covid ended the entire thing I’ve been working towards the last decade.

 

[maclean]

At least the next decade... the economy is shattered..

Social Services are going to get wrecked
People in poverty will have no help

Covid ended small business so big corporations like Walmart and Amazon control the entire market

I’m just happy I did not open by own restaurant like I had planned... would have wrecked me... Covid ended the entire thing I’ve been working towards the last decade.

What I have seen is some quite heart-warming support for local businesses. Of course it has its limits - you have so many places that are close to your heart and money is tight for everyone. But at least so far one of my friends' restaurants is being kept afloat (with only take-away allowed) by some regulars getting people at their work to order lunches. "Afloat" meaning they can at least keep their staff employed...

But yeah, we just went back into "lockdown" here and if business dries up like it did in the spring, I'm pretty royally effed. In the spring the government distributed money to every self-employed person and that got me through it, but that's definitely not happening again.

 

[JD1]

I’m referring to the choice to walk around unmasked, to spread conspiracy theories like “The virus is lab-made” and the choice to downplay the severity of this virus when it’s killing people indiscriminately. These choices are all selfish and actively harm community efforts to prevent the spread.

Well, the whole virus is man made theory is for extreme wingnuts

There's not a lot of walking around without masks that i see in my day to day life, in fact there's none of it. There are problematic gatherings and that will get addressed, but day to day there's none of it

This virus can kill people, there's no doubt about that. Recently I have seen you post about being a journalism prof and about teaching statistics. As a stats guy, you should be able to do your own math. A week or so ago, the WHO said possibly 800M globally have got the virus. Pro rate that to Canada and we're talking 4M. So if that's true, this virus really is not very deadly to people without preexisting conditons. Or is my math wrong?

This situation is not going to change until there is clear, unequivocal guidelines from the government on what is safe and what is not safe. The headlines change every day. People are getting this virus every day doing allowable things like for example playing hockey which they are now studying. Heavy breathing and cold air....whoda thunk that could be a problem

As much as you want to place this on society it isn't going anywhere until the people running this shit show actually get their shit together

 

[maclean]

A week or so ago, the WHO said possibly 800M globally have got the virus. Pro rate that to Canada and we're talking 4M. So if that's true, this virus really is not very deadly to people without preexisting conditons. Or is my math wrong?

Without having seen the WHO statement in question, I would imagine they are attributing a large part of the unregistered cases to areas with high-population slums that do not have access to reliable healthcare or testing - India, Brazil, South Africa, for example. Despite shortcomings in testing, a place like Canada will have accounted for a lot higher percentage of cases, so yes, your math is quite likely wrong.

That aside, I do agree with you. Blaming society is a pointless endeavour. Looking at this as a long-term problem, I think it is imperative for authorities to find sustainable solutions and not to punish people that are trying to follow guidelines in good faith that it will keep them in business. A cycle of shutting down and opening up is like binge drinking and then swearing off alcohol until the next time - it's not good for the heart.

 

[maclean]

To expand on that idea, the LLBO seems to have little trouble finding out about every little liquor licence violation. Why not put them on the job of monitoring COVID violations

 

[Stylizer1]

I’m referring to the choice to walk around unmasked, to spread conspiracy theories like “The virus is lab-made” and the choice to downplay the severity of this virus when it’s killing people indiscriminately. These choices are all selfish and actively harm community efforts to prevent the spread.

Where did the virus come from?

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDoo]

Where did the virus come from?

The bigger question is: "What difference does it make?"

Wrt our path forward in trying to cope with it, the origin of the virus is irrelevant.

 

[Stylizer1]

The bigger question is: "What difference does it make?"

Wrt our path forward in trying to cope with it, the origin of the virus is irrelevant.

That wasn't the question

 

[JD1]

Without having seen the WHO statement in question, I would imagine they are attributing a large part of the unregistered cases to areas with high-population slums that do not have access to reliable healthcare or testing - India, Brazil, South Africa, for example. Despite shortcomings in testing, a place like Canada will have accounted for a lot higher percentage of cases, so yes, your math is quite likely wrong.

That aside, I do agree with you. Blaming society is a pointless endeavour. Looking at this as a long-term problem, I think it is imperative for authorities to find sustainable solutions and not to punish people that are trying to follow guidelines in good faith that it will keep them in business. A cycle of shutting down and opening up is like binge drinking and then swearing off alcohol until the next time - it's not good for the heart.

Here's an article with the who number

Covid-19 updates: One in 10 worldwide may have had virus, WHO says

My point is twofold

1. There's just been zero consistency from governments on this
2. If there is a shred of validity to the who number, then with 800M infected and 1.15 M deaths globally, the death rate on this isn't very significant

I'm not expressing any opinion here other than the view that governments don't exactly have it together

The 800M is a who estimate that i linked
The 1.15 M deaths comes from the world o meters site

 

[Knave]

So you're fine using an estimate of infections but a deliberate count of deaths where for example the US reports 228,000 deaths but there have been 300,000 estimated deaths above an expected mortality rate despite significant changes - less driving, less strenuous activity, etc...

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

Are you attributing the increase of deaths primarily due to people succumbing to Covid?

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Where did the virus come from?

 

[Dingle]

try and remember folks. The 1930 economic collapse was at a time when governments were so much smaller, taxes were way less, the roaring 20's had created a fair amount of wealth. Schools, hospitals, etc. were all private and not government run. So FDR's "New Deal" had untapped tax dollars to draw from. It had only minor government expenses to add to. And even then, the USA was about to sink into a second depression in 1939...Many theorized that that led FDR to turn a blind eye to Japanese aggression and European nations to Hitler's aggression. WWII became the great government action plan to re-ignite the economy....25 million deaths though.

Considering that we have no New Deal to try and reach for...no Hoover Dam to build...no untapped tax dollars (Babe Ruth made something like 100 K in 1931...paid 15% taxes)...where will the money come from?

We all know fear and we all have loved ones. And we all want to save them and those of us in the vulnerable group, have our own necks to worry about.

This subject matter has no answer.

Since we are heading down this road, all we can do is sit and watch. Let's hope we have not traded the life of an 85 year old, for the life of a 25 year old.

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDoo]

That wasn't the question

Which is why I prefaced my question with the "The bigger question is:"

There are (obviously) important reasons to investigate and understand the origin of the virus... primarily so that preventative measures can be put in place so that we aren't as likely for it to happen again.

But that's pretty far outside the scope of our current conversation about whether we are doing the right things, or whether our elected leaders are handling the situation well, etc...

And any attempt to link the "it was created in a lab" theory to how we should be handling it is just outright silly.

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDoo]

Are you attributing the increase of deaths primarily due to people succumbing to Covid?

There'd have to be quite a bit of analysis into the increase before you could draw any firm conclusions.

But wouldn't Covid be the logical starting point? Is there another phenomenon that would explain the increase?

 

[Xspyrit]

Which is why I prefaced my question with the "The bigger question is:"

There are (obviously) important reasons to investigate and understand the origin of the virus... primarily so that preventative measures can be put in place so that we aren't as likely for it to happen again.

But that's pretty far outside the scope of our current conversation about whether we are doing the right things, or whether our elected leaders are handling the situation well, etc...

And any attempt to link the "it was created in a lab" theory to how we should be handling it is just outright silly.

But the vast majority of the scientific world has debunked that idea

So unless they all lie and are on Bill Gates/China payroll, the virus WAS NOT created in a lab. Why is it still discussed?

Man, these disinformation campains are really something. You end up wondering who really has agenda. Looks like the conspiracy theorists are the ones fabricating a conspiracy

 

[Senscore]

I sort of understand why people might think it was lab created but as usual, conspiracy theorists push things to ridiculous extremes.

I absolutely believe the Chinese work with infectious diseases for the purpose of exploring the potential of bioweapons. As a government they clearly don't have many scruples and are ramping up their military capabilities.

However what is a fact is that their massive wet markets have little regulation, and in the necessity of feeding massive populations, they probably won't look too hard at where the food is actually coming from. Naturally this can be a breeding ground for disease, which we've seen many times over. It just so happens that this virus was just a bit too difficult for the state mechanisms to lock down before it was too late.

I think Hanlon's razor appropriately describes the situation:

"Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.'

 

[Sens]

Trudeau was saying a spring vaccine is the dream today

if that busts. Looking at doing this for years

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

There'd have to be quite a bit of analysis into the increase before you could draw any firm conclusions.

But wouldn't Covid be the logical starting point? Is there another phenomenon that would explain the increase?

Exactly my point. So to throw around "300,000 estimated deaths above an expected mortality rate" and attributing it to Covid would be misleading