Evaluate Chevy - Part II

[puck stoppa]

I don't think Dallas really over-achieved. They had a quality roster last year. They finished the season with the 9th best Fenwick percentage in the league. Add in two quality scorers and remove nothing significant - they should be pretty damn good. Colorado, Nashville and Minnesota are the teams that scare me the least.

I think we will compete with all four of them but anything can happen, lots of surprises last year.

 

[Grind]

I think we will compete with all four of them but anything can happen, lots of surprises last year.

What do you classify as a surprise? If team does well in The standings, does well in Fenwick, and doesn't lose significant assets, you're banking on "an act of god" to reduce their performance.

Colorado should come back to earth. Who knows with Nashville.

I think Minnie's better then us but within range of a growth season/lucky season getting us above them.


My biggest concern is having a "Colorado" season and causing us to make some poor decisions

 

[puck stoppa]

What do you classify as a surprise? If team does well in The standings, does well in Fenwick, and doesn't lose significant assets, you're banking on "an act of god" to reduce their performance.

Colorado should come back to earth. Who knows with Nashville.

I think Minnie's better then us but within range of a growth season/lucky season getting us above them.


My biggest concern is having a "Colorado" season and causing us to make some poor decisions

Teams like TB, MTL, CLB, DAL, COL, were surprises, I mean that not many people had them so high in the standings before the season started. If we dig up predictions from last year I bet many of us would be surprised that we were way off with what we had before the year and what actually transpired. Trying to predict what will happen is a crapshoot, and what Im saying is we can surprise this year, a new coach with a new attitude can go a long way.
Look at the Bombers, we all thought they would suck and that they have no depth, etc, and they have surprised us.
I am optimistic that the Central will not go as we all think. CHI will slip to wildcard, I just have this feeling that the Central will be unpredictable.
Just cause a team had good Fenwick and did well in the standings one year doesn't mean they will repeat that the next. VAN, NSH, WSH, PHX were all looking very good in the standings a few years back but have slipped dramatically while MTL and ANA have gone the other way, things change year in year out, adding players does not mean success either, it could ruin chemistry.

 

[tbcwpg]

I personally think that Dallas and Colorado overachieved last year and will take a step back this year. I think we will take a step forward. We had many one goal games last year where we threw away points and we finished only 7 points behind Dallas. We will need Hutch to push Pavs and I really think Maurice will have an influence this year, winning the four point games will be key. We need many things to go our way but don't think for a second that Dallas and Colorado will have all things go their way this year, standings are hard to predict and I see us as being right there competing with those teams. (Oh, and I didn't see your reasonings cause I don't read many of your posts, find them too negative)

I agree with you for Colorado; they had some overachieving players last season and will probably regress a bit. Dallas improved heavily though, they may have shot a bit high last season but they are better now, and I don't see many Pacific teams giving them a run for a wild card spot. They're better than Calgary and Edmonton, and arguably better than Vancouver and Phoenix. I'd put them alongside Minnesota in ability.

 

[Hunter368]

I personally think that Dallas and Colorado overachieved last year and will take a step back this year. I think we will take a step forward. We had many one goal games last year where we threw away points and we finished only 7 points behind Dallas. We will need Hutch to push Pavs and I really think Maurice will have an influence this year, winning the four point games will be key. We need many things to go our way but don't think for a second that Dallas and Colorado will have all things go their way this year, standings are hard to predict and I see us as being right there competing with those teams. (Oh, and I didn't see your reasonings cause I don't read many of your posts, find them too negative)

You may find them negative, but at least I explain my reasoning. But using your reasoning...oh wait you haven't given any reasoning for your POV. Simply saying a new coach and new attitude and saying a few teams over achieved last year so you HOPE they will slip in the standings means nothing. That's like saying I'll win the 649 this year b/c I never won it last year. Sorry your over simplification and lack of reasoning or explanation doesn't not help your argument.

I explained all my points (regarding why they'll end with 80-90 points) using a balanced POV, not negative or dreamy eyed POV.

 

[puck stoppa]

You may find them negative, but at least I explain my reasoning. But using your reasoning...oh wait you haven't given any reasoning for your POV. Simply saying a new coach and new attitude and saying a few teams over achieved last year so you HOPE they will slip in the standings means nothing. That's like saying I'll win the 649 this year b/c I never won it last year. Sorry your over simplification and lack of reasoning or explanation doesn't not help your argument.

I explained all my points (regarding why they'll end with 80-90 points) using a balanced POV, not negative or dreamy eyed POV.

My reasonings are similar to what's been discussed, see Joe Hallenback's post a while back I feel he nailed it and my thougts are the same, Trouba Schief improving, Hutch pushing Pavs, Maurice, etc. It's all there and I think we have a chance if things from his list fall into place. No use repeating what's been stated many times already but when I find a computer Ill list my reasons.

 

[Gm0ney]

I agree with you for Colorado; they had some overachieving players last season and will probably regress a bit. Dallas improved heavily though, they may have shot a bit high last season but they are better now, and I don't see many Pacific teams giving them a run for a wild card spot. They're better than Calgary and Edmonton, and arguably better than Vancouver and Phoenix. I'd put them alongside Minnesota in ability.

The overachieving was mostly Varlamov having a career year: .927 vs his career average of .917 - actually previous to last year his average was .912. But even with .912 goaltending, an improving MacKinnon along with Iginla will probably make them not so much worse that they fall out of playoff contention.

 

[truck]

The overachieving was mostly Varlamov having a career year: .927 vs his career average of .917 - actually previous to last year his average was .912. But even with .912 goaltending, an improving MacKinnon along with Iginla will probably make them not so much worse that they fall out of playoff contention.

Statsny > Iginla
PA > Danny B

I am firmly convinced they have gotten worse this offseason and that they will fall hard.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

@Gm0ney: and minus Stastny and PA

Edit: truck beat me to it. I think of any of the teams in the Central that might go for a bit of a tumble, it's the Avalanche. They played way over their heads last year, and arguably got worse. If Varlarmov doesn't play out of his mind again, there's a few more losses to add to the pile.

Personally, I don't think the Jets are in any way shape or form a 'contender', but I think there's going to be an honest fight for the final wildcard spot: I see Nashville, Winnipeg, Colorado battling for it.

 

[Hunter368]

@Gm0ney: and minus Stastny and PA

Edit: truck beat me to it. I think of any of the teams in the Central that might go for a bit of a tumble, it's the Avalanche. They played way over their heads last year, and arguably got worse. If Varlarmov doesn't play out of his mind again, there's a few more losses to add to the pile.

Personally, I don't think the Jets are in any way shape or form a 'contender', but I think there's going to be an honest fight for the final wildcard spot: I see Nashville, Winnipeg, Colorado battling for it.

For those who read my posts above explain my POV, this is the Cole's note version of it.

To sum up my long post on the subject, I said we'll end 9-11 in our conference and 6-7 within our division (missing out on the playoffs again). My reasoning is all in my long post above. The Jets will fight all year long but they just don't have enough in the tank to win a playoff spot.

Plus I said 2015 Jets will be much improved b/c of the growth of our current rookies (& younger players) and the new ones joining the team this year and next. Hopefully we can then get rid of some of the dead weight in the bottom half of our team (forwards and defence and Pav's).

 

[Hunter368]

My reasonings are similar to what's been discussed, see Joe Hallenback's post a while back I feel he nailed it and my thougts are the same, Trouba Schief improving, Hutch pushing Pavs, Maurice, etc. It's all there and I think we have a chance if things from his list fall into place. No use repeating what's been stated many times already but when I find a computer Ill list my reasons.

I'll watch for your post once you reach a computer. Specifically the post I questioned of yours was when you stated how we were going to beat all those teams within our division (Dallas, Col & Minny plus I assume you meant to include the Preds but I'm not sure).

I would appreciate it if you could explain your reasoning how you think that will happen. Thx

PS: I looked back 4 pages for the post by Joe you mentioned and I couldn't find it. Not sure what post your referencing. Sorry

 

[puck stoppa]

Here is how I think the Jets will be better this year.
Kane will have a breakthrough year if he stays healthy. He will have Scheif or Perrault as his centre which should help him this year.
Wheeler needs a fast start out of the gate, he has taken a while to get going every year and I think he needs the confidence right from the get go which will only help him and Scheif.
Scheif will continue to progress and will put up better numbers this year.
Perrault is a better third line centre than Oli, he will add speed to our lineup and him and TJ have good possession numbers and will only give us more depth in the bottom six and make us harder to play against. I think TJ will start on the fourth line with Slater and Thorburn which is the best fourth line we've ever iced. Odell will be a regular which Im good with as he is ready for the next step.
The one player I don't know what to expect from up front is Buff, he could be real good or a bust up front so Im not sure about him yet

On the blue line Enstrom and Bogo will have their best year as Jets if they can stay healthy. Its time for Bogo to take the next step and Toby can get 50 points if paired with him. Trouba will progress and adding Clitsome to the top 4 is an improvement over Stuart.
In goal, I really think one, if not both of our goalies can have .911-9.14 SP. Hutch will push Pavs and may even overtake him as the starter. This improvement will help us win those one goal games that we couldn't win last year. I really think those one goal games are important to note as we were close in most games and just couldn't pull some of them out. Hiring a new strength coach will hopefully help us out in that area.
Maurice is the biggest factor for me, he will run a man's training camp and will get the team's attention early, no spot in the lineup will be safe and he will hold all players accountable. He will bring a different attitude to the room and the players will not give up on him as they did Noel.
To think we only finished 7 points back last year and that's with players giving up on the coach.
That's my quick ramble as Im short on time, but these are my thoughts on why we can compete with COL, NSH, MIN and DAL for a playoff spot.

 

[truck]

Here is how I think the Jets will be better this year.
Kane will have a breakthrough year if he stays healthy. He will have Scheif or Perrault as his centre which should help him this year.
Wheeler needs a fast start out of the gate, he has taken a while to get going every year and I think he needs the confidence right from the get go which will only help him and Scheif.
Scheif will continue to progress and will put up better numbers this year.
Perrault is a better third line centre than Oli, he will add speed to our lineup and him and TJ have good possession numbers and will only give us more depth in the bottom six and make us harder to play against. I think TJ will start on the fourth line with Slater and Thorburn which is the best fourth line we've ever iced. Odell will be a regular which Im good with as he is ready for the next step.
The one player I don't know what to expect from up front is Buff, he could be real good or a bust up front so Im not sure about him yet

On the blue line Enstrom and Bogo will have their best year as Jets if they can stay healthy. Its time for Bogo to take the next step and Toby can get 50 points if paired with him. Trouba will progress and adding Clitsome to the top 4 is an improvement over Stuart.
In goal, I really think one, if not both of our goalies can have .911-9.14 SP. Hutch will push Pavs and may even overtake him as the starter. This improvement will help us win those one goal games that we couldn't win last year. I really think those one goal games are important to note as we were close in most games and just couldn't pull some of them out. Hiring a new strength coach will hopefully help us out in that area.
Maurice is the biggest factor for me, he will run a man's training camp and will get the team's attention early, no spot in the lineup will be safe and he will hold all players accountable. He will bring a different attitude to the room and the players will not give up on him as they did Noel.
To think we only finished 7 points back last year and that's with players giving up on the coach.
That's my quick ramble as Im short on time, but these are my thoughts on why we can compete with COL, NSH, MIN and DAL for a playoff spot.

So basically... career years from Kane, Scheif, Trouba, Bogo, Wheeler, Enstrom, Clitsome and Pav / Hutch with no notable fall off elsewhere

 

[Hunter368]

So basically... career years from Kane, Scheif, Trouba, Bogo, Wheeler, Enstrom, Clitsome and Pav / Hutch with no notable fall off elsewhere

Puck Stoppa,

I have to agree with Truck's comments above, I think you are being completely one sided in your POV. Sure some of things you stated may turn out to be true, but not all of them, not a chance. This is my whole point people have to look at our future with a balanced POV, not through rose colored glasses. No offence meant.

Plus you never mentioned a thing about how several of the teams above us in the division (who you think we'll pass in the standings) improved dramatically while we did basically nothing (Perr & TJ added, are small upgrades) and yet you expect us to pass several of them within our division and make the playoffs.

I'm not saying the playoffs are impossible this year, it could happen just very unlikely. But no way do we pass all of Col, Dal, Preds, and Minny this year. I'll do a siggy bet on that one gladly (for one entire year), with anyone who take that bet.

 

[puck stoppa]

So basically... career years from Kane, Scheif, Trouba, Bogo, Wheeler, Enstrom, Clitsome and Pav / Hutch with no notable fall off elsewhere

No, just Kane and Bogo. Trouba and Scheif will have a natural progression and improve on their totals from last year as injuries slowed them both. Enstrom has hit 50 pts twice and Pavs hit .914 once in his career so he can reach .911 and if not I think Hutch can attain the range I stated. And I think Clitty is a better option than Stu, never said career year.

 

[NBjet]

No, just Kane and Bogo. Trouba and Scheif will have a natural progression and improve on their totals from last year as injuries slowed them both. Enstrom has hit 50 pts twice and Pavs hit .914 once in his career so he can reach .911 and if not I think Hutch can attain the range I stated. And I think Clitty is a better option than Stu, never said career year.

I don't think that this is that much of a stretch...

 

[puck stoppa]

So basically... career years from Kane, Scheif, Trouba, Bogo, Wheeler, Enstrom, Clitsome and Pav / Hutch with no notable fall off elsewhere

Just had a quick glance at COL's stats last year, Duchene, Landeskog, Oreilly, Mackinnon, Johnson, McGinn, Varlamov, Barrie all had career years just to name a few. Anything is possible, call me delusional but Im feeling optimistic these days.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I guess the hope for some is that we are way back at the TD so we can unload, let's say Buff and maybe Frolik if he's not signed and then hope to tank ala TB when they took Drouin and then hope to pick up one of the studs in the top 5, and finally turn the corner.

The TD is too late to tank to a top 5 pick level even if we get rid of more than Buff and Frolik.

I think we can beat out Dallas, Colorado and Minny if everything falls into place. I for one, don't believe that all teams in the Central will have rosy seasons, it never happens that way, they're all getting their tires pumped for improving on paper but that doesn't always translate on the ice and anything can happen (injuries, lose top goalie, poor chemsitry). I think we'll compete hard with those teams as they won't all be awesome. And Chicago has had two long seasons so they may fall a bit, maybe even fall down to a wildcard, you just never know.

We could beat out Dallas OR Colorado OR Minny perhaps but it is not realistic to say we could beat out all 3 even if we have a lot of things fall into place. Dallas HAS improved and will be a little out of site for us unless they have terrible luck with injuries or something similar. Colorado overachieved last year and have not gotten better so there is a chance. Minny is better than us on paper but if their goaltending doesn't come through it is not impossible for us to compete. We should be able to beat Nashville but that will be close too. To beat any more than 1 of those will require a lot of luck and a lot of things working out for us. We can't rely on ALL of our close competitors suffering an unusual rate of injury to their top players.

 

[truck]

Just had a quick glance at COL's stats last year, Duchene, Landeskog, Oreilly, Mackinnon, Johnson, McGinn, Varlamov, Barrie all had career years just to name a few. Anything is possible, call me delusional but Im feeling optimist these days.

Anything is possible. This is surely true, but what is possible and what I think will happen are usually quite different.

 

[puck stoppa]

Anything is possible. This is surely true, but what is possible and what I think will happen are usually quite different.

So you don't think any of these will happen?:

No, just Kane and Bogo. Trouba and Scheif will have a natural progression and improve on their totals from last year as injuries slowed them both. Enstrom has hit 50 pts twice and Pavs hit .914 once in his career so he can reach .911 and if not I think Hutch can attain the range I stated. And I think Clitty is a better option than Stu, never said career year.

 

[arby18]

So you don't think any of these will happen?:

No, just Kane and Bogo. Trouba and Scheif will have a natural progression and improve on their totals from last year as injuries slowed them both. Enstrom has hit 50 pts twice and Pavs hit .914 once in his career so he can reach .911 and if not I think Hutch can attain the range I stated. And I think Clitty is a better option than Stu, never said career year.

There's a very good chance that the sophomore slump derails one or both of these players. Bogo had a heck of a rookie year himself but has seen a decline due to injuries, something both 8 and 55 have suffered through already. Natural progression is hard to bank on, especially in such important roles.

Any of these things could happen. But the chances of all of them happening are about as likely as none of them happening. And if only a few of these possibilities pan out than the Jets are likely out of the mix.

 

[Hunter368]

The TD is too late to tank to a top 5 pick level even if we get rid of more than Buff and Frolik.



We could beat out Dallas OR Colorado OR Minny perhaps but it is not realistic to say we could beat out all 3 even if we have a lot of things fall into place. Dallas HAS improved and will be a little out of site for us unless they have terrible luck with injuries or something similar. Colorado overachieved last year and have not gotten better so there is a chance. Minny is better than us on paper but if their goaltending doesn't come through it is not impossible for us to compete. We should be able to beat Nashville but that will be close too. To beat any more than 1 of those will require a lot of luck and a lot of things working out for us. We can't rely on ALL of our close competitors suffering an unusual rate of injury to their top players.

Exactly my point.

 

[Hunter368]

There's a very good chance that the sophomore slump derails one or both of these players. Bogo had a heck of a rookie year himself but has seen a decline due to injuries, something both 8 and 55 have suffered through already. Natural progression is hard to bank on, especially in such important roles.

Any of these things could happen. But the chances of all of them happening are about as likely as none of them happening. And if only a few of these possibilities pan out than the Jets are likely out of the mix.

Your are correct sir!

 

[truck]

So you don't think any of these will happen?:

No, just Kane and Bogo. Trouba and Scheif will have a natural progression and improve on their totals from last year as injuries slowed them both. Enstrom has hit 50 pts twice and Pavs hit .914 once in his career so he can reach .911 and if not I think Hutch can attain the range I stated. And I think Clitty is a better option than Stu, never said career year.

I don't think Toby will hit 50 ever again, especially not with Bogo as his partner. I also a firm non believer in Pav. He his .914 once. He has hit .906 or lover every other year. I wouldn't bet over on .906.

 

[puck stoppa]

There's a very good chance that the sophomore slump derails one or both of these players. Bogo had a heck of a rookie year himself but has seen a decline due to injuries, something both 8 and 55 have suffered through already. Natural progression is hard to bank on, especially in such important roles.

Any of these things could happen. But the chances of all of them happening are about as likely as none of them happening. And if only a few of these possibilities pan out than the Jets are likely out of the mix.

Then just wait till Morrissey breaks down the door on his 9 game look