Evaluate Chevy - Part II

[Guerzy]

And the evaluation continues!

Part 1 can be found here.

Click to read more...

 

[koth]

My evaluation: he's doing okay.

 

[Jet]

That's true, Vancouver's I suppose isn't great for them. But I still think, as Jet said, the journey through it all is something that cannot really be topped, besides winning. That's my opinion anyway, it would also be fair to think some may take it so poorly that it's a bad memory. Not me, though.

The Canes did win the cup, but I was a fan and also experienced losing in 2002 and losing in the conference finals in 2009, so I've experienced all sorts of runs right from Conference Finals, Stanley Cup Finals (losing) and Stanley Cup Finals (winning). It's a miracle ride of memories that as a hockey fan I wouldn't trade for anything, win or lose. The feelings and emotions are indescribable for me, regardless of the outcome, and I will always remember them. One is obviously better than the other, being winning it all, but the journey of it all for me as a fan is something I will always remember. It's just an awesome, awesome, awesome ride.

As someone who has felt the emotions of winning it all, I still believe even had I not experienced that, the 2002 Finals run (losing) and Eastern Conference Finals run (also, losing) are some of my greatest, most precious moments and memories as a hockey fan. Just a wild and amazing experience for me going through it. I remember the small things, the weather, the celebrating of a goal I fondly remember, the natural excitement the day of a game, an overtime win, the excitement of knowing you're in the playoffs, you win one round, feels amazing, you win a second round, feels even better, etc.... just amazing memories for me regardless of the final outcome. I can go back in my mind through all of those journeys and remember different little things about them, where I was when they happened, everything. I love having those memories and think of them quite often, be it losing in the '02 finals, winning it all in '06 or getting swept in the '09 conference finals.

As someone who has never witnessed a team I love win the cup, I can say that I treasure that cup run by the Oilers in 06. I still think of it fondly and I doubt today that it would be any better of a memory for me if they would have won game 7

OK, maybe a bit, but it was still one hell of a ride. I want to watch the Jets in the playoffs EVERY year. I have not seen any Jets team in the playoffs nearly enough in my life.

 

[jetkarma*]

Just in regards to the 2015 draft, the projected 6th pick right now is Oliver Kylington, the 16 year old playing in the Swedish elite league. I believe no one has ever done that before.

So yeah, the 2015 draft is looking pretty special. Would you pass up a pick to get a d-man better than Trouba? Beause Trouba never did the things Kylinton or Hanifan has done thus far. These are franchise players and some.

One of these guys are much more likely to get us the Stanley Cup than Ladd, Byfuglien or Wheeler....I would happily trade Buff or even Wheeler for an extra 2015 first. It would be wise going forward.

I don't think a draft like this one is coming again anytime soon.

You make a lot of assumptions. Some are dangerous to take as gospel. Look at draft lists a year prior to any draft , the actual order is not carved in stone , nor is the future ability of said picks. No one is saying it wouldn't be better to have more or higher picks of course , but at what cost.

If it is so easy ,list the bottom 8 teams in order now , they way they will finish next season . Of those guaranteed teams , name the teams that will trade with the Jets in the fashion you want and think is prudent for Winnipeg and at what cost. Things are always fluid and what you are saying as easy trades , feasible ones , imo aren't . Look at this year with the Florida talk for trading their top pick . They didn't end up doing it , it takes a lot and would take a lot to get a very very high pick . Realistically what would you trade from Winnipeg , a Jacob Trouba?

Not to say Winnipeg can't do things better , or shouldn't , but like all the moaning this year about winning a few games at the end of the year and ending up with the 9th pick as opposed to the 6th , the end result was the same I would dare say . The key is drafting well , getting at least if not better draft value to the draft slot , which is what we are doing . Doing very well imo . As opposed to what the previous management did , looks to be a very dramatic difference to me . Get good second and third tier players from non premium picks , and hopefully have a couple of them be big wins relative to their draft position . Still waiting to confirm that , but it appears we have a pretty solid chance to have done that ( Hellebycuk , Copp for example )

What I sense some people want is to trade virtually all players older than 25 for picks , and either have an unrealistic expectation for their value or think their is some saviour we must acquire in order to build a team that can be a winner. Get plus players at as many positions as possible , develop the right culture , have very good coaching and build with a clear vision. I see we are doing that. Unfortunately it takes time and some aren't prepared to let that plan unfold. I am , some aren't . I see the players we are adding and feel very confident, others don't .

 

[hockeyarena]

Is Poile not completely dancing circles around Chevy and some other GM's right now?
Signs Ribeiro, Roy, and Volchenkov for next to nothing, no risk.
Signs Jokinen on a very safe deal.
Completely fleeces Pittsburgh and gets James Neal.
Dumps Erat for future star Forsberg.
Fisher goes down with injury and imagine that their GM picks up the phone and does something.

Meanwhile Chevy knows we have the worst goalie in the league, and are generally mediocre in all areas, yet he makes no effort to try and improve our team.

 

[VictoriaJetsFan]

You make a lot of assumptions. Some are dangerous to take as gospel. Look at draft lists a year prior to any draft , the actual order is not carved in stone , nor is the future ability of said picks. No one is saying it wouldn't be better to have more or higher picks of course , but at what cost.

If it is so easy ,list the bottom 8 teams in order now , they way they will finish next season . Of those guaranteed teams , name the teams that will trade with the Jets in the fashion you want and think is prudent for Winnipeg and at what cost. Things are always fluid and what you are saying as easy trades , feasible ones , imo aren't . Look at this year with the Florida talk for trading their top pick . They didn't end up doing it , it takes a lot and would take a lot to get a very very high pick . Realistically what would you trade from Winnipeg , a Jacob Trouba?

Not to say Winnipeg can't do things better , or shouldn't , but like all the moaning this year about winning a few games at the end of the year and ending up with the 9th pick as opposed to the 6th , the end result was the same I would dare say . The key is drafting well , getting at least if not better draft value to the draft slot , which is what we are doing . Doing very well imo . As opposed to what the previous management did , looks to be a very dramatic difference to me . Get good second and third tier players from non premium picks , and hopefully have a couple of them be big wins relative to their draft position . Still waiting to confirm that , but it appears we have a pretty solid chance to have done that ( Hellebycuk , Copp for example )

What I sense some people want is to trade virtually all players older than 25 for picks , and either have an unrealistic expectation for their value or think their is some saviour we must acquire in order to build a team that can be a winner. Get plus players at as many positions as possible , develop the right culture , have very good coaching and build with a clear vision. I see we are doing that. Unfortunately it takes time and some aren't prepared to let that plan unfold. I am , some aren't . I see the players we are adding and feel very confident, others don't .

Strong rebuttal, really interesting stuff this morning all around.


In regards to the draft, 2 first-rounders is better than one regardless of pretty much any other circumstances, I get that there is risk in the draft, even in a great one like 2015, but at the end of the day everything entails some sort of risk, one cannot be scared off by that.

Of the issue regarding over 25 players, they cannot all be dealt very true. An Edmonton Oiler style rush the kids can hurt badly as well.

So to answer the question about vets, which ones would I prefer to keep:

Enstrom
Ladd
Stuart
Frolik
Little

That would be my preferred group. I think Wheeler, Kane and Buff could return a massive amount of talent that would set us up for 10 years. I think the remaining group would provide enough leadership and would age well enough to contribute significantly in the years to come.

 

[VictoriaJetsFan]

As someone who has never witnessed a team I love win the cup, I can say that I treasure that cup run by the Oilers in 06. I still think of it fondly and I doubt today that it would be any better of a memory for me if they would have won game 7

OK, maybe a bit, but it was still one hell of a ride. I want to watch the Jets in the playoffs EVERY year. I have not seen any Jets team in the playoffs nearly enough in my life.

I do not want to diminish anyone's positive memories. There is reward in the journey for sure. I attended game 2 of the finals in 2011 and it was spectacular. From game 7 in the first round when they beat Chicago to game 2 of the finals it was a glorious ride. Right at the end of it the Jets returned to Winnipeg. An amazing two months or so.

But it would have been so so much better if the ending had been different.

When Jets 1.0 made the playoffs it was great too, but short first round knockouts grew old quite fast. I hope when we make it in we are strong with a chance to go deep every year, but not like Philly who sort of hang around the edges year after year.

 

[jamiebez]

My issue is goes back to "who". Who made the call?

To me... if Chevy didn't even consider the buyout option that's a concern because the GM should consider all options, and he's not doing his job, and he's not very good at evaluating goalies. If Chevy did want to buyout Pavs, but was told no by TNSE, that's a concern because the owner is getting involved in the GM's job. Chevy is either not up to the task or he's being interfered with IMO.....Either is a problem....

I've been dwelling on the question of "who?" a lot and I think it's got to be ownership.

This isn't a bad thing to me, and I wouldn't construe it as "meddling". I think they basically set a budget for Chevy for the season, just like any literally any other organization (sports or otherwise).

A buyout means $1,416,667 taken out of his budget for the next 6 years, plus the cost of a goalie to replace him. Anyone with a demonstrably better track record (i.e. not a career backup) is way too expensive, and blows his budget all to hell.

In light of all that, he keeps Pavelec for another season, and lets him sink or swim with Hutchinson and Hellebuyck waiting in the wings.


tl;dr: Management gives him a fixed budget, Chevy doesn't want to spend it all on goalies when he has 2-3 guys in the pipeline.

 

[Gm0ney]

Is Poile not completely dancing circles around Chevy and some other GM's right now?
Signs Ribeiro, Roy, and Volchenkov for next to nothing, no risk.
Signs Jokinen on a very safe deal.
Completely fleeces Pittsburgh and gets James Neal.
Dumps Erat for future star Forsberg.
Fisher goes down with injury and imagine that their GM picks up the phone and does something.

Meanwhile Chevy knows we have the worst goalie in the league, and are generally mediocre in all areas, yet he makes no effort to try and improve our team.

As long as you don't compare Chevy to other GMs in our division, he looks alright. I'd say one more year of evaluation and then we'll see something.

But hey, the off-season isn't over and I guess we can dress up "doing-almost-nothing" as a virtue until something happens and then that will also be a virtue. If Hutch steals the starting job from Pavelec early in the year, it'll all be part of Chevy's brilliant plan that we were fools to doubt...

 

[pucka lucka]

I've been dwelling on the question of "who?" a lot and I think it's got to be ownership.

This isn't a bad thing to me, and I wouldn't construe it as "meddling". I think they basically set a budget for Chevy for the season, just like any literally any other organization (sports or otherwise).

A buyout means $1,416,667 taken out of his budget for the next 6 years, plus the cost of a goalie to replace him. Anyone with a demonstrably better track record (i.e. not a career backup) is way too expensive, and blows his budget all to hell.

In light of all that, he keeps Pavelec for another season, and lets him sink or swim with Hutchinson and Hellebuyck waiting in the wings.


tl;dr: Management gives him a fixed budget, Chevy doesn't want to spend it all on goalies when he has 2-3 guys in the pipeline.

It is meddling. Buying out Pavelec means the owners would pay less money for him. They could sign a younger goalie and platoon with Hutch and it's a financial wash. So if ownership is involved they are meddling. Keeping Pavelec was a hockey decision.

 

[pucka lucka]

As long as you don't compare Chevy to other GMs in our division, he looks alright. I'd say one more year of evaluation and then we'll see something.

But hey, the off-season isn't over and I guess we can dress up "doing-almost-nothing" as a virtue until something happens and then that will also be a virtue. If Hutch steals the starting job from Pavelec early in the year, it'll all be part of Chevy's brilliant plan that we were fools to doubt...

You have the gift.

 

[ps241]

You make a lot of assumptions. Some are dangerous to take as gospel. Look at draft lists a year prior to any draft , the actual order is not carved in stone , nor is the future ability of said picks. No one is saying it wouldn't be better to have more or higher picks of course , but at what cost.

If it is so easy ,list the bottom 8 teams in order now , they way they will finish next season . Of those guaranteed teams , name the teams that will trade with the Jets in the fashion you want and think is prudent for Winnipeg and at what cost. Things are always fluid and what you are saying as easy trades , feasible ones , imo aren't . Look at this year with the Florida talk for trading their top pick . They didn't end up doing it , it takes a lot and would take a lot to get a very very high pick . Realistically what would you trade from Winnipeg , a Jacob Trouba?

Not to say Winnipeg can't do things better , or shouldn't , but like all the moaning this year about winning a few games at the end of the year and ending up with the 9th pick as opposed to the 6th , the end result was the same I would dare say . The key is drafting well , getting at least if not better draft value to the draft slot , which is what we are doing . Doing very well imo . As opposed to what the previous management did , looks to be a very dramatic difference to me . Get good second and third tier players from non premium picks , and hopefully have a couple of them be big wins relative to their draft position . Still waiting to confirm that , but it appears we have a pretty solid chance to have done that ( Hellebycuk , Copp for example )

What I sense some people want is to trade virtually all players older than 25 for picks , and either have an unrealistic expectation for their value or think their is some saviour we must acquire in order to build a team that can be a winner. Get plus players at as many positions as possible , develop the right culture , have very good coaching and build with a clear vision. I see we are doing that. Unfortunately it takes time and some aren't prepared to let that plan unfold. I am , some aren't . I see the players we are adding and feel very confident, others don't .

As one of the posters who would like us to begin transitioning older assets I can say vehemently the bolded would be a massive mistake IMO. Anyone who wants to trade all of LLWEB at once is nuts.

 

[surixon]

Is Poile not completely dancing circles around Chevy and some other GM's right now?
Signs Ribeiro, Roy, and Volchenkov for next to nothing, no risk.
Signs Jokinen on a very safe deal.
Completely fleeces Pittsburgh and gets James Neal.
Dumps Erat for future star Forsberg.
Fisher goes down with injury and imagine that their GM picks up the phone and does something.

Meanwhile Chevy knows we have the worst goalie in the league, and are generally mediocre in all areas, yet he makes no effort to try and improve our team.

Another case of not looking indepth at the actual moves and just pointing at a GM for just doing something.

Volchenkov is a third pairing dmen on the decline.. Hardly a steller acquisition.

Ribero just got punted by a quality management team in Phoneix, for conduct so detrimental that a very poor team elected to eat his buyout. There are huge red flags with this player and I for one am happy that Chevy didn't bring this cancer here.

Roy is an OK pickup.

 

[koth]

Yeah, I don't think anyone can actually complain that we didn't sign Ribeiro.

 

[jetkarma*]

Strong rebuttal, really interesting stuff this morning all around.


In regards to the draft, 2 first-rounders is better than one regardless of pretty much any other circumstances, I get that there is risk in the draft, even in a great one like 2015, but at the end of the day everything entails some sort of risk, one cannot be scared off by that.

Of the issue regarding over 25 players, they cannot all be dealt very true. An Edmonton Oiler style rush the kids can hurt badly as well.

So to answer the question about vets, which ones would I prefer to keep:

Enstrom
Ladd
Stuart
Frolik
Little

That would be my preferred group. I think Wheeler, Kane and Buff could return a massive amount of talent that would set us up for 10 years. I think the remaining group would provide enough leadership and would age well enough to contribute significantly in the years to come.

Going by the given that anyone can be traded , just for what return , then sure Wheeler , Kane and Buff are options to trade. What return can be had , and what would you ( or anyone ) expect for said players?

Wheeler up until the end of last year was a still improving top line RW with size and speed . He's from Minnesota , so that is a plus , one we have to logically take into account for players for Winnipeg. It matters . He is young enough , and good enough to be a key component for this team going forward , very valuable . What is the return he gets? From what team? Are you prepared to get just futures for a prime time player? Again , anyone can be traded but I'd need a huge return to move him with all factors taken into consideration.

We all know Kanes' situation. I wouldn't take less than full value , no discounts , no frustrated panic move , big elite talent , I want big elite return. If that isn't there , no deal . People wanting to get premium picks do so to get a chance for premium talent , well here it is , this is it. He has blemishes but he's the shiny , sparkly big time bonafide dynamic winger all teams covet. Oh , and he's still just 22 . He has no leverage unless it is deciding to mope and be petulant or flat out be a bad presence on and to the team. He hasn't been that nor done that , yet. He could / should have reacted better or differently one can say , but he hasn't gone past "that" point for me at least. Kane has the innate inner drive , self pride , internal motivation to not float or not try to be as dominant as he can be . If that changes , then how to proceed also changes , till then Winnipeg has virtually all the cards . Bowl me over with a trade offer , tempt me with an offer I can't turn down , otherwise I certainly am more than ok to see if Kane Scheifele and Wheeler can't become an elite NHL line . Much much more than ok to roll those three and see if we have the magic that those three look to have.

Buff for a coach offers a lot to like imo . Mans the PP , elite point producer from the back end , can dominate when motivated and in shape , can be an effective forward at either RW or LW . I prefer him at D , but can see the reasons why the hybrid role is appealing for any team. Is he going to go down hill physically quickly , age suddenly , become less effective , maybe. maybe not , it isn't a given . How does he react to Maurice , does he decide to make enough effort to eat better , work out more , mange his weight and conditioning? If so he has the sheer talent to be among the leagues premier talents imo. So , again what is a fair return for him? If we can get talent for now , futures well then evaluate that when the offer(s) is there. Buff isn't in his mid thirties , no taking what you can get , it would need to be fair value at the least. . Again he is from Minnesota , likes the outdoors , seems to be fine with living here , that matters , again. What is a realistic offer you would take for him? What is one another team would offer?

Bottom line , don't lose any trade , especially for elite , premier talent. You list three of those , get three winning trade offers and I'll make those trades , If not , then an easy no , very easy no. Winnipeg can't deplete the talent base , we simply can't. The option to sign a Suter , Parise , Stastny isn't realistically there , although we made legitimate inquiries and offers. Maybe , just maybe , when we have built the roster , have become a winning team , a serious playoff factor we can add a FA or two of that caliber . We get to that point by having better players , not by trading them for less of a return . I am more than ok to make some trades , some big trades , but I'm mot making a trade because I feel some pressure to react , I'm staying with the plan. The one where I see positives , maybe not as immediate as wanted , but where I see the top end , the middle portion and the bottom of the roster and farm system being improved. This team was so depleted when it arrived here , not moaning about it ,just a fact , there really was only one way to impact long term change/success . and that is what we are doing. Sure some mistakes have been made , every team does make them . It also doesn't mean you can't build by other ways , but the core direction is this way and the only way Winnipeg could make a substantive change of direction.

 

[pucka lucka]

Another case of not looking indepth at the actual moves and just pointing at a GM for just doing something.

Volchenkov is a third pairing dmen on the decline.. Hardly a steller acquisition.

Ribero just got punted by a quality management team in Phoneix, for conduct so detrimental that a very poor team elected to eat his buyout. There are huge red flags with this player and I for one am happy that Chevy didn't bring this cancer here.

Roy is an OK pickup.

He signed all 3 of those guys for a little over 1 Mark Stuart.

All 3 have better possession numbers than Stuart as well.

 

[Analyst365]

We have a divide forming between those who have repeated the (re)build through the draft mantra so many times they now accept it as gospel, and rate Chevy's highly based on his drafting record, and those who remember him trumpeting the existing core inherited from Atlanta and wishing to build a winner around it, and rate Chevy lowly based on his track record of doing this.

As a result we're stuck in the middle of neither.

 

[surixon]

He signed all 3 of those guys for a little over 1 Mark Stuart.

All 3 have better possession numbers than Stuart as well.

It tells me that those players aren't wanted by other teams.

I also could care less about Ribero's stats if he'll poison the room.

 

[jamiebez]

It is meddling. Buying out Pavelec means the owners would pay less money for him. They could sign a younger goalie and platoon with Hutch and it's a financial wash. So if ownership is involved they are meddling. Keeping Pavelec was a hockey decision.

It is a hockey decision, but there's financial reasons for hockey decisions too

As far as signing a younger guy: as much as we all pushed for this, in was never really in the cards. GMs don't operate that way. They wouldn't jettison a starter - even a BAD one - for an unproven guy. That gets you fired if the new guy isn't ready for prime-time.

I hope he would have improved on Pavelec if there was a better, more proven guy out there in UFA, but look at what Hiller signed for in Calgary.

Financially speaking, you don't see teams buy out a guy unless he's completely redundant (think 3rd on the depth chart), not capable of playing in the NHL anymore, or they are free-spending lunatics (Paul Holmgren, come on down!!!). None of these is true with Pavelec and the Jets... yet.

 

[sipowicz]

We have a divide forming between those who have repeated the (re)build through the draft mantra so many times they now accept it as gospel, and rate Chevy's highly based on his drafting record, and those who remember him trumpeting the existing core inherited from Atlanta and wishing to build a winner around it, and rate Chevy lowly based on his track record of doing this.

As a result we're stuck in the middle of neither.

Nothing wrong with building through the draft and to Chevy's credit he has drafted pretty well, the problem with Chevy's plan is that he is trying to build exclusively through the draft which just can't be done.

 

[pucka lucka]

It is a hockey decision, but there's financial reasons for hockey decisions too

As far as signing a younger guy: as much as we all pushed for this, in was never really in the cards. GMs don't operate that way. They wouldn't jettison a starter - even a BAD one - for an unproven guy. That gets you fired if the new guy isn't ready for prime-time.

I hope he would have improved on Pavelec if there was a better, more proven guy out there in UFA, but look at what Hiller signed for in Calgary.

Financially speaking, you don't see teams buy out a guy unless he's completely redundant (think 3rd on the depth chart), not capable of playing in the NHL anymore, or they are free-spending lunatics (Paul Holmgren, come on down!!!). None of these is true with Pavelec and the Jets... yet.

People keep saying things like this. What does it matter if a bad goalie has played a lot? They are still bad goalies. It's trivial to find a .906 goalie. Keep cycling through minor leaguers until we find one if we have to.

Pavelec isn't just an imperfect goalie, he's the WORST starter in the league. He's worse than many backups. We know Montoya could have at least given us 30 games at .906 or better. .906 is a pretty low bar. Hutch is 24. He's not 18.

Your bit about buyouts is not true: Grabovski, Richards, Erhoff. Even if it is true how does Pavelec not fit?

 

[ps241]

Nothing wrong with building through the draft and to Chevy's credit he has drafted pretty well, the problem with Chevy's plan is that he is trying to build exclusively through the draft which just can't be done.

That is one of the more cheery posts I have seen you make in a while Sip

I agree by the way and my hope is that he has learned from Pavs and has waited to build a bit of a pipeline before getting more active in the trading market. I like patience with prospect development but past that guys have short primes....use them or lose them.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

My evaluation: he's doing okay.

My evaluation: He was doing OK until this off-season. There were a number of things he needed to do. Some of them were of the either or variety. So far he has clearly blown at least 2 things. He did OK at the draft again (can't rate any better than OK until someone who was not drafted in the 1st round starts to contribute). He has done a half job of signing FAs. There is still time to recover a bit but it looks like an F coming up on his report card.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

You make a lot of assumptions. Some are dangerous to take as gospel. Look at draft lists a year prior to any draft , the actual order is not carved in stone , nor is the future ability of said picks. No one is saying it wouldn't be better to have more or higher picks of course , but at what cost.

If it is so easy ,list the bottom 8 teams in order now , they way they will finish next season . Of those guaranteed teams , name the teams that will trade with the Jets in the fashion you want and think is prudent for Winnipeg and at what cost. Things are always fluid and what you are saying as easy trades , feasible ones , imo aren't . Look at this year with the Florida talk for trading their top pick . They didn't end up doing it , it takes a lot and would take a lot to get a very very high pick . Realistically what would you trade from Winnipeg , a Jacob Trouba?

Not to say Winnipeg can't do things better , or shouldn't , but like all the moaning this year about winning a few games at the end of the year and ending up with the 9th pick as opposed to the 6th , the end result was the same I would dare say . The key is drafting well , getting at least if not better draft value to the draft slot , which is what we are doing . Doing very well imo . As opposed to what the previous management did , looks to be a very dramatic difference to me . Get good second and third tier players from non premium picks , and hopefully have a couple of them be big wins relative to their draft position . Still waiting to confirm that , but it appears we have a pretty solid chance to have done that ( Hellebycuk , Copp for example )

What I sense some people want is to trade virtually all players older than 25 for picks , and either have an unrealistic expectation for their value or think their is some saviour we must acquire in order to build a team that can be a winner. Get plus players at as many positions as possible , develop the right culture , have very good coaching and build with a clear vision. I see we are doing that. Unfortunately it takes time and some aren't prepared to let that plan unfold. I am , some aren't . I see the players we are adding and feel very confident, others don't .

I'm not advocating it but a strong argument can be made for, I won't call it tanking but converting assets for futures. Trade everyone over 25. Most would get back a 1st, some only a 2nd or 3rd. Some would get a premium like a 1st and a prospect or a 1st + a 2nd. Most of those picks would be mid to late in the round. We would be trading with already strong teams and making them stronger. What's left would finish low and get a good ticket in the lottery with a good chance at one or the other of the 2 premium players plus all the other picks. Instant rebuild. The thing is that the Jets aren't nearly bad enough to justify that.

I can't be as patient as you are advocating though. I'm a lot older than most here. I can actually remember the Leafs winning the cup. I want to see the Jets contending in my lifetime and the current pace doesn't appear to have much chance of that. Just a little more aggressive pursuit of the goal could get there.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I've been dwelling on the question of "who?" a lot and I think it's got to be ownership.

This isn't a bad thing to me, and I wouldn't construe it as "meddling". I think they basically set a budget for Chevy for the season, just like any literally any other organization (sports or otherwise).

A buyout means $1,416,667 taken out of his budget for the next 6 years, plus the cost of a goalie to replace him. Anyone with a demonstrably better track record (i.e. not a career backup) is way too expensive, and blows his budget all to hell.

In light of all that, he keeps Pavelec for another season, and lets him sink or swim with Hutchinson and Hellebuyck waiting in the wings.


tl;dr: Management gives him a fixed budget, Chevy doesn't want to spend it all on goalies when he has 2-3 guys in the pipeline.

There it is again. The fallacy IMO that the buyout would cost money. The 3.9 mil/yr is sunk costs. It is money already spent. A third of it could have been recovered. There are plenty of goalies who can play better than Pav for less than that including a number of career backups. Having been career backups doesn't mean they can't play 60 games a year. They mostly all did that before they got this far. They are career backups because their sv% is less than that of the starters. Pavs sv% is less than ANY of the starters and most of the backups as well. They could have replaced Pav for less money and got goaltending that might very well get us into the playoffs and get all that extra income as well. But never mind the career backups there were other goalies available as well. Some of them might have cost a little more but still within the current budget for goaltenders. There is also value to spreading out the payment to Pav over twice the time period. Inflation makes it worth less each year so the cost is actually less.

I'm not going to go into the whole calculation again. Its been done and probably much better than I would do it. But the current budget for goaltending is ~ 4.5 mil/yr, minus 1.5 for Pav, minus .6 for a backup = 2.4 mil. That's plenty to get the job done without any extra expenditure. Keep Monty for 1 mil (yes as the starter until Hutch is ready. He is a better one than Pav). Leaves 1.4 mil to set aside to pay Pav those last 3 years.

I'm sure Chevy has the services of a smart accountant who can make it work better than that and I'm sure Chipman has another one to check the figures.