- Jul 24, 2005
- 12,485
- 4,816
This is completely wrong thread for this topic but I will post this and if you want we can continue else were!
At first I thought you were joking. Because I just mentioned that people are too results driven and you pretty much just looked the result. And I don't put any weight on goal differential when making my estimations. That was just weird fact and it is very unlikely that they have almost identical point%. But I would say that generally goal differential is closer to "truth" than points (there really isn't truth in these things. Just educated guesses, but I hope you understand what I was trying to explain).
In normal season I don't put any weight on h2h results. Teams play like 1-5/6 games against each other per year, such small sample sizes are pretty much useless. This year you could make some slight chances, or just simply don't make the bet if some team seems the others number. But it is better to ignore those things than make huge adjustments.
How I see things: Like I said earlier probabilities were around 62/63-37/38. This time the team with 37/38% chance of winning ended up winning the game. Simple as that, I don't make really any big conclusions from one game. If team X beats team Y it doesn't mean that they are better team. Detroit won b2b games against Carolina about week ago.
If I had a bet to that match, the most important for me is to check closing odds. Those odds are opinion of every dollar/euro that was invested to that game (in big leagues closing odds are considered to be very accurate). Then I check scoring chances and xG from the game. For example that aforementioned NYR-PHI game was pretty close, but Rangers had a slight edge.
Would I make any adjustments from that game? Only really marginal ones, but nothing significant. Rangers were the favourites, they had more scoring chances/xG, but they ended losing a one goal game.
3.4 Oilers vs Flames closing odds
1.71-2.27
11.4 Flames vs Oilers closing odds
2.03-1.88
23.4 Rangers vs Flyers closing odds
1.60-2.49
Betting market shared my view that there is bigger gap between Rangers vs Flyers than Oilers vs Flames. If you don't agree then there is money to be made for you.
This has absolutely no relevance to player comparisons, and certainly illustrates absolutely nothing to indicate you understand the numbers better than most people.
You do you all you want, but I would really stop with these assertions that the sport of hockey isn’t results driven. I’ve been watching the sport for probably longer than you’ve been alive and was a long time Oiler season ticket holder, so I’m comfortable in the assumption that I understand the game at the same level as you do.