Blue Jays Discussion: Estrada nearly unhittable. Our bullpen? Not so much. Also, CB Bucknor sucks.

[LaCarriere]

Something spectacular eh.

Sounds to me like we are going to try another dickeyesque trade.

**** that.

Tampa has had outstanding pitching the last handful of years. Can't say I remember them trading their young high upside arms to try and make the playoffs. Seems to me they would rather their young arms step in and be the ones to help out and its been working. I know its just one example but I'm sure there are plenty more...

Well the flipside to that is the Jays haven't had a ton of success with developing their drafted pitchers into MLB level talent. We're starting to see some of AAs draft class breaking into the majors and how they are doing, but it's still even way to early to tell if it will be a success or not - and even if they are we're looking at least a few more years of development. They aren't all going to be superstars in their first or second year.

It's funny, with all this talk about trading for Hamels -- he was drafted 17th in 2002. With the 14th pick the Jays took Russ freaking Adams, and the 15th/16th picks were Kazmir and Swisher respectively. Matt Cain dropped to 25th overall. Looking back I can't believe how bad the Jays drafting in the upper rounds was thru that era. For how average this team has been for so long you'd think we'd have at least 1 all-star level player acquired thru the draft, but we don't. Every good player we have has come from another org.

In 2005 instead of taking Romero we could have taken Tulo, McCutchen, or Jay Bruce. I know baseball drafting is probably the biggest crapshoot in all of major sport drafts, but this team has been so unbelievably bad at it that I honestly don't have a problem with trading our prospects to improve our team. Load up on pitching in the draft since everyone always wants it, and trade it before it turns to crap in our system.

 

[Longshot]

Well the flipside to that is the Jays haven't had a ton of success with developing their drafted pitchers into MLB level talent. We're starting to see some of AAs draft class breaking into the majors and how they are doing, but it's still even way to early to tell if it will be a success or not - and even if they are we're looking at least a few more years of development. They aren't all going to be superstars in their first or second year.

It's funny, with all this talk about trading for Hamels -- he was drafted 17th in 2002. With the 14th pick the Jays took Russ freaking Adams, and the next two picks were Kazmir and Swisher. Matt Cain dropped to 25th overall. Looking back I can't believe how bad the Jays drafting in the upper rounds was thru that era. For how average this team has been for so long you'd think we'd have at least 1 all-star level player acquired thru the draft, but we don't.

In 2005 instead of taking Romero we could have taken Tulo, McCutchen, or Jay Bruce. I know baseball drafting is probably the biggest crapshoot in all of major sport drafts, but this team has been so unbelievably bad at it that I honestly don't have a problem with trading our prospects to improve our team.

To be fair, it's not like Adams was some longshot pick that nobody had ever heard of. He was coveted by a lot of teams. In the book Moneyball, he was on Billy Beane's list of players he wanted in that draft.

I do remember wondering why Adams was such a high pick when he made it to the majors. He didn't appear to do much of anything well.

Also, Romero looked every bit like a potential front of the rotation, stud pitcher after his first three seasons in the majors. He fell apart completely in the 4th season and that's something that nobody can predict. It's not like he crapped out in A ball or something.

 

[Eyedea]

Well the flipside to that is the Jays haven't had a ton of success with developing their drafted pitchers into MLB level talent. We're starting to see some of AAs draft class breaking into the majors and how they are doing, but it's still even way to early to tell if it will be a success or not - and even if they are we're looking at least a few more years of development. They aren't all going to be superstars in their first or second year.

It's funny, with all this talk about trading for Hamels -- he was drafted 17th in 2002. With the 14th pick the Jays took Russ freaking Adams, and the 15th/16th picks were Kazmir and Swisher respectively. Matt Cain dropped to 25th overall. Looking back I can't believe how bad the Jays drafting in the upper rounds was thru that era. For how average this team has been for so long you'd think we'd have at least 1 all-star level player acquired thru the draft, but we don't. Every good player we have has come from another org.

In 2005 instead of taking Romero we could have taken Tulo, McCutchen, or Jay Bruce. I know baseball drafting is probably the biggest crapshoot in all of major sport drafts, but this team has been so unbelievably bad at it that I honestly don't have a problem with trading our prospects to improve our team. Load up on pitching in the draft since everyone always wants it, and trade it before it turns to crap in our system.

That was a strategy employed by Ricciardi who learned it from Beane. It was more high floor than high potential out of the picks.

To be fair, it's not like Adams was some longshot pick that nobody had ever heard of. He was coveted by a lot of teams. In the book Moneyball, he was on Billy Beane's list of players he wanted in that draft.

I do remember wondering why Adams was such a high pick when he made it to the majors. He didn't appear to do much of anything well.

Also, Romero looked every bit like a potential front of the rotation, stud pitcher after his first three seasons in the majors. He fell apart completely in the 4th season and that's something that nobody can predict. It's not like he crapped out in A ball or something.

Actually Romero was pretty terrible in the minors. It's a miracle he ever managed to put together strong seasons in the majors.

 

[jcollins]

With the way things work in Toronto it wouldn't shock me if a trade such as that were to go down.

Quite honestly, Ive been on the fence about moving our young guys for Chapman and cueto but the more I think about it the more I'd rather just use the young arms ourselves. Especially if our pitching continues to be pretty good like it has been recently.

Me too!

 

[LaCarriere]

It's not so much that a Russ Adams, or a Romero turning out to be a bust on their own is the problem or the end of the world. It's the combined draft record from 2000+ that just turned out to be so collectively bad.

The best picks have been Romero who lasted 3 years in the majors and Aaron Hill, who's had two pretty good seasons and has otherwise mostly gone unnoticed. Their draft record has to be bottom 5 of the league, bottom third for sure.

 

[Eyedea]

It's not so much that a Russ Adams, or a Romero turning out to be a bust on their own is the problem or the end of the world. It's the combined draft record from 2000+ that just turned out to be so collectively bad.

The best picks have been Romero who lasted 3 years in the majors and Aaron Hill, who's had two pretty good seasons and has otherwise mostly gone unnoticed. Their draft record has to be bottom 5 of the league, bottom third for sure.

Hill over his career has put together a lot more than just two good seasons. But really with Ricciardi's tenure he produced 4 bats. Hill, Lind, Snider, and Arencibia. He acquired Hinske as like his first big trade and he had his elite first season then faded. Pitchers developed have been Romero, Marcum, Janssen, Cecil, Hutchison, Litsch, and Alvarez (IFA). I wouldn't say he was the worst drafter ever, and he did find some small value guys, but just never got the home run picks. Doesn't help that Marcum, Janssen, and Litsch suffered serious injuries during their careers.

Russ Adams was the guy that ruined a lot of potential possibilities though. Would JP have drafted Tulo if Adams wasn't the young prospect currently entrenched at SS?

 

[KapG]

Well the flipside to that is the Jays haven't had a ton of success with developing their drafted pitchers into MLB level talent. We're starting to see some of AAs draft class breaking into the majors and how they are doing, but it's still even way to early to tell if it will be a success or not - and even if they are we're looking at least a few more years of development. They aren't all going to be superstars in their first or second year.

It's funny, with all this talk about trading for Hamels -- he was drafted 17th in 2002. With the 14th pick the Jays took Russ freaking Adams, and the 15th/16th picks were Kazmir and Swisher respectively. Matt Cain dropped to 25th overall. Looking back I can't believe how bad the Jays drafting in the upper rounds was thru that era. For how average this team has been for so long you'd think we'd have at least 1 all-star level player acquired thru the draft, but we don't. Every good player we have has come from another org.

In 2005 instead of taking Romero we could have taken Tulo, McCutchen, or Jay Bruce. I know baseball drafting is probably the biggest crapshoot in all of major sport drafts, but this team has been so unbelievably bad at it that I honestly don't have a problem with trading our prospects to improve our team. Load up on pitching in the draft since everyone always wants it, and trade it before it turns to crap in our system.

Agreed that the jays havent really had the best drafting success until recently (looks good so far atleast)

Now that we finally.have some high upside young arms already in the majors and a bunch more knocking on the door I would much rather keep them and use them as opposed to shipping them out for players who may only be rentals.

 

[Mach85]

Hill over his career has put together a lot more than just two good seasons. But really with Ricciardi's tenure he produced 4 bats. Hill, Lind, Snider, and Arencibia. He acquired Hinske as like his first big trade and he had his elite first season then faded. Pitchers developed have been Romero, Marcum, Janssen, Cecil, Hutchison, Litsch, and Alvarez (IFA). I wouldn't say he was the worst drafter ever, and he did find some small value guys, but just never got the home run picks. Doesn't help that Marcum, Janssen, and Litsch suffered serious injuries during their careers.

Russ Adams was the guy that ruined a lot of potential possibilities though. Would JP have drafted Tulo if Adams wasn't the young prospect currently entrenched at SS?

I read recently in one of Keith Law's columns that the Jays' draft room was dead split on whether to draft Romero or Tulo. I didn't know it had actually been that close.

 

[LaCarriere]

Hill over his career has put together a lot more than just two good seasons. But really with Ricciardi's tenure he produced 4 bats. Hill, Lind, Snider, and Arencibia. He acquired Hinske as like his first big trade and he had his elite first season then faded. Pitchers developed have been Romero, Marcum, Janssen, Cecil, Hutchison, Litsch, and Alvarez (IFA). I wouldn't say he was the worst drafter ever, and he did find some small value guys, but just never got the home run picks. Doesn't help that Marcum, Janssen, and Litsch suffered serious injuries during their careers.

Russ Adams was the guy that ruined a lot of potential possibilities though. Would JP have drafted Tulo if Adams wasn't the young prospect currently entrenched at SS?

Some of those guys aren't even worth mentioning though.

Snider isn't anything to write home about and Arencibia is even worse.

Cecil is about to be run out of town if you read the sportsnet forums, and we basically got 2 years out of Litsch. All in all, between the busts and injuries, I have a tough time believing there are a whole lot of teams that have done worse than the Jays over that era. Obviously you can't predict injuries and busts, but in the end results are what matter.

It didn't help that Jays scouts wanted Tulo but JP went against them to take Romero. He actually had a choice there and made the wrong one.

 

[Longshot]

I don't think it's fair to look at a couple of picks in a couple of years in isolation and say the Jays were or have been terrible overall at drafting.

As I pointed out with Adams, if the Jays hadn't taken him, somebody else would have soon after. Same with Romero.

Where one really needs to look is at the drafting (and development) philosophies of the various regimes in team history.

Other posters might have more in depth knowledge but here's how it has looked to me:

AA: focus on impact starting pitchers
JP: focused on college players with longer track records that would make it to the big leagues quicker
Ash: Kind of carried over the Gillick years. Athletic guys, etc
Gillick: Had a focus on drafting and development throughout the organization. Tapped the Latin market, liked athletes.

The era being criticized in the thread today was JP's time and I think where he really fell down as a GM was not carrying on the Blue Jays tradition of investing in Latin America, signing those kinds of players almost amounts to a second draft for teams (I look back and remember Shawn Green and Carlos Delgado coming up together, one signed, one drafted - both became impact players).

 

[Eyedea]

I'm not saying his drafting was good. I'll never say that. He was just operating a different way from other GMs. He put little money into the draft/scouting and tried to find value picks. AA's philosophy has been a complete 180.

Despite not being a great drafter however he was far from the worst, as seen in this FG article.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/building-through-the-draft-worst-of-the-worst/

 

[Longshot]

It didn't help that Jays scouts wanted Tulo but JP went against them to take Romero. He actually had a choice there and made the wrong one.

But that choice was working out just fine until the player himself dropped off the radar in his 4th season in the majors.

Like it or not, after three years in the majors, Romero was looking like a front of the rotation starter capable of pitching in the AL East.

Romero the draft pick was not a bust, Romero the player turned into a bust. Most wouldn't see a difference, but there is.

 

[hockeywiz542]

Toronto Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos talks to Baseball Central @ Noon about how the season is shaping up for the team, how he’s evolving in his position, the possibility of Roberto Osuna taking up the closing role, the plan for Aaron Sanchez, his impression of Matt Boyd’s debut, the value of retaining Dioner Navarro, the character of the trade market, the health status of Marcus Stroman, the AL East not being as weak as initially thought, and the impact Josh Donaldson has made.

Alex Anthopoulos tells Baseball Central that trade talks are coming out of a deep freeze, expecting talks to accelerate in the coming week and that the Jays will be active in trying to make the club better.

http://pmd.fan590.com/audio_on_dema...ir-and-Kevin-Barker-bc-20150629-Interview.mp3

 

[Canada4Gold]

Navarro not in the lineup today. But neither is Smoak lol. Bello at 1st, Goins in LF

 

[BertCorbeau]

Navarro not in the lineup today. But neither is Smoak lol. Bello at 1st, Goins in LF

Wat?

Someone injured???

This isn't comforting

 

[Canada4Gold]

I figure they just want to get Goins in there again, but he hasn't been good defensively in the OF, and Carrera hits better, so Carrera should be there imo.

 

[LaCarriere]

I really wish they would just start playing their best lineup every day instead of platooning 1st, LF, DH, C.

Navarro has played way more than I'd like and I'd assume it's to get him some ABs after the injury as well as to try and generate interest, but I just hope this daily lineup tinkering doesn't cost them.

 

[LaCarriere]

In other news, Donaldson now leading 3B voting.

I'm guessing the MLB is just going to make up 300k votes for Altuve if he doesn't get them, I'd be shocked if they let Infante start at 2B. That's just ridiculous that he would even go to this allstar game, never mind start.

Bautista about 1.5M votes out from the 3rd starter, Royals now down to 5 starting fielders.

https://twitter.com/MLB_PR/status/615603723864272897

 

[Bad News Benning]

Wat?

Someone injured???

This isn't comforting

Goins is 9 for 19 against Buchholz. Might help explain it

The fact Goins is hitting almost .500 against any pitcher over 20 AB's is an impressive feat.

 

[Bad News Benning]

In other news, Donaldson now leading 3B voting.

I'm guessing the MLB is just going to make up 300k votes for Altuve if he doesn't get them, I'd be shocked if they let Infante start at 2B. That's just ridiculous that he would even go to this allstar game, never mind start.

Bautista about 1.5M votes out from the 3rd starter, Royals now down to 5 starting fielders.

https://twitter.com/MLB_PR/status/615603723864272897

They better not let Infante play or I refuse to watch. Someone with 0 HR's, and 3 walks is embarrassing. There is pitchers that hit better than that. Can the AL use the DH on the 2nd baseman?

 

[Canada4Gold]

They better not let Infante play or I refuse to watch. Someone with 0 HR's, and 3 walks is embarrassing. There is pitchers that hit better than that. Can the AL use the DH on the 2nd baseman?

It's a pretty good idea actually. Since in the AS game each pitcher pitches like 1 inning except the starter who might get 2. You'd replace pitcher every inning anyway, might as well pinch hit for him, and have the DH for Infante

 

[LaCarriere]

They better not let Infante play or I refuse to watch. Someone with 0 HR's, and 3 walks is embarrassing. There is pitchers that hit better than that. Can the AL use the DH on the 2nd baseman?

I only say the MLB should make up 300k votes for Altuve, because Kipnis is getting screwed big time. He's got the best WAR for a 2B by far (4.4) but he's way to far behind in votes. Altuve sitting at 1.7, Kinsler at 1.4 and the Jays Devon Travis at 1.3 despite only playing in 39 games. Meanwhile Infante is exactly a 0.0 player. Exactly a replacement level player all-star -- wonderful.

Showing Infante's stat line at an allstar game would be just humiliating, the MLB has got to be wondering what they can do to fix this -- and there's not much time left.

 

[The Nemesis]

I only say the MLB should make up 300k votes for Altuve, because Kipnis is getting screwed big time. He's got the best WAR for a 2B by far (4.4) but he's way to far behind in votes. Altuve sitting at 1.7, Kinsler at 1.4 and the Jays Devon Travis at 1.3 despite only playing in 39 games. Meanwhile Infante is exactly a 0.0 player. Exactly a replacement level player all-star -- wonderful.

Showing Infante's stat line at an allstar game would be just humiliating, the MLB has got to be wondering what they can do to fix this -- and there's not much time left.

they could probably fake-stuff the ballot box in the late going just like everyone alleges they did with Vote for Rory

 

[LaCarriere]

they could probably fake-stuff the ballot box in the late going just like everyone alleges they did with Vote for Rory

That's what I'm assuming/hoping will happen. It's not like we actually know if the votes are real.

Infante is just going to magically have 20k less votes than Altuve and then Kipnis / Kinsler can't really be denied as backups.

 

[TootooTrain]

Showing Infante's stat line at an allstar game would be just humiliating, the MLB has got to be wondering what they can do to fix this -- and there's not much time left.

The commentary for his introduction would be hilarious. He's leading his team in-...I mean he's top 5 in the league for-.....damnit. He's....a good clubhouse guy.