Erie Otters 2021-22 Season Thread

[Mata]

Do the US based teams also have their attendance capped at 1000? Thanks.

There were pretty much 0 restrictions at the Erie game the other day. The only difference was masks were recommended but not required.

 

[NOA]

I took some time to review the Western conference teams in terms of returning experience. I decided to review returning offensive production based solely on 2019-2020 numbers and then reviewed how many defenders that saw 10+ games in 2019-20 that each team returns

Offensively, here is the breakdown:
**Again this is based only on 2019-20 statistics

1. SSM (125g / 265pts among 8 forwards **assuming they keep their top 3 OAs which is unlikely)
2. WSR (91g / 211pts among 7 forwards **assuming Foudy returns which is up in the air)
3. KIT (90g / 204pts among 8 forwards)
4. FLT (60g / 149pts among 6 forwards **assuming Morgan returns though there are trade rumors)
5. ERI (62g / 143pts among 7 forwards)
6. SAG (48g / 115pts among 5 forwards)
7. LDN (45g / 113pts among 5 forwards)
8. SAR (41g / 107pts among 6 forwards)
9. OS (30g / 82pts among 6 forwards)
10. GUE (25g / 60pts among 6 forwards)

Flint would slide to 8th with 45g/91pts if Morgan is indeed demanding a trade. While Erie would move up to 4th.

All this to say, Erie is in decent shape to at least be an offense that has some depth/experience. I’ll assume that London adds and ends up putting up goals anyways. But Saginaw is not in a great position to add, while Guelph and Sarnia might be too young to even consider it.

Defensively, here is the breakdown:
**Again this is only based on returning defenders who played 10+ games in 2019-20

1. OS with 5 defensemen
2. WSR, LDN, GUE, FLT, SSM with 4 defensemen
3. SAR, ERI, SAG, KIT with 3 defensemen

Erie is one of the more inexperienced on the backend but the hope for them is that Kulakov playing last year in MHL, while many others didn’t, will help him and Sova is just a special player.
When you consider Erie plays 24 games against Flint/Saginaw, especially if Morgan is demanding a trade, it’s certainly possible those 2 teams are two of the most inexperienced teams in conference. Add in 20 games against Guelph/SAR/OS/NIA and that’s 44 games or over half their schedule against teams that are unlikely to be a top 3 conference team unless they make multiple trades.

Imo Erie should be able to win at least half those games, and ideally they get the development and growth from their young guys and can win 27/28 games out of those 44. And that’s being fair and reasonable. That means in your remaining 24 games, against tougher opponents in KIT, LDN, WSR, SOO, HAM) you need to win about 10 games. Given the schedule, I think it’s totally reasonable of an expectation to win 37/38 games and anything less is a major fail and should spell the end for Hartsburg and the change of direction with this team. Winning 37/38 games will historically put you in the 4-6 seed range.

My conference predictions:

1. KIT
2. SOO
3. WSR
4. LDN
5. ERI
6. SAR
7. SAG
8. OS
9. FLT
10. GUE

 

[HockeyPops]

Soo has a fourth returning defender not yet on the roster - Matt Halushak is out for 3 months after recent shoulder surgery.

 

[NOA]

Soo has a fourth returning defender not yet on the roster - Matt Halushak is out for 3 months after recent shoulder surgery.

Good call. Thanks. Will update my list above

 

[OHL Fan]

I said 5'9" or less, and just because they are LISTED doesnt mean they are correct heights.
Tie Domi was listed as 5'11" on some websites.

 

[OHL Fan]

Erie will contend this year for a playoff spot. Their offence will produce enough to win games, but their achilles heels are their d corp and goaltending that are young and unproven.

The same situation has existed in Erie the last 3-4 years. We cannot say that its a new situation they are in, and they had Drysdale the past 2 years.

Erie, unfortunately is in the middle. Not a full rebuild and not good enough to contend. Does this sound familiar?

 

[NOA]

I said 5'9" or less, and just because they are LISTED doesnt mean they are correct heights.
Tie Domi was listed as 5'11" on some websites.

Yeah but that goes on across the league. If Erie has a 5’8 guy who is listed at 5’9 then I’m sure we can find a Saginaw player listed at 5’11 who is actually 5’10.

I also should add that height/weights for Erie are the same as 2019-20 season. Hard to imagine that nobody gained weight or added an inch or 2 in the past 500+ days since hockey, or really more like 2 years since last measurements were done. Not sure why it’s not updated yet or when it will be but it certainly is not accurate or up to date for Erie

 

[OHL Fan]

The game of hockey is changing and smaller guys are able to compete and be very productive, so not a problem with smaller skilled guys. But when most of your producers are smaller, its always hard to win battles, and faceoffs and defend. Also, 2 of your biggest forwards will be gone next year, and maybe earlier.

Lockhart, Bresette, Ross, Saganiuk, Sedore, Cohen are your best forwards next year and all under 5'9", well maybe Cohen just above, but very slight. And all are skilled, but not physical, maybe Sedore a bit. Are we confident that this group will be able to compete for top spots in Western Conference next year? Dont think so, and thus you have 2 years in failed progress.

I like the dmen signings and they should be fine next few years, but this year they are unproven and young, and their oldest dman Mortan is so so, and Thompson just a big guy.

I just think they should concentrate on shoaring up their nucleus this year (6 fwds and 4 dmen) , and maybe be a bottom team again, and thus be confident going into next year. Thats why I recommend trading assets that will not be around next year. JMO

 

[NOA]

The game of hockey is changing and smaller guys are able to compete and be very productive, so not a problem with smaller skilled guys. But when most of your producers are smaller, its always hard to win battles, and faceoffs and defend. Also, 2 of your biggest forwards will be gone next year, and maybe earlier.
Lockhart, Bresette, Ross, Saganiuk, Sedore, Cohen are your best forwards next year and all under 5'9", well maybe Cohen just above, but very slight. And all are skilled, but not physical, maybe Sedore a bit. Are we confident that this group will be able to compete for top spots in Western Conference next year? Dont think so, and thus you have 2 years in failed progress.
I like the dmen signings and they should be fine next few years, but this year they are unproven and young, and their oldest dman Mortan is so so, and Thompson just a big guy.
I just think they should concentrate on shoaring up their nucleus this year (6 fwds and 4 dmen) , and maybe be a bottom team again, and thus be confident going into next year. Thats why I recommend trading assets that will not be around next year. JMO

While I don’t disagree and respect your thoughts, you are forgetting the fact that they haven’t even won since 2017. And I don’t mean haven’t won a title.. I mean haven’t won regular season games. The fans and revenue are at a low rate and COVID made matters 10x worse. They simply can’t afford, pun intended, to be a bottom tier team

Let me also continue to point out that even if they wanted to sell, who can they even trade? Their 3 OAs don’t hold significant value. Defensively speaking, they actually have size and upside there so not sure who you would move and short of Sova you would get a low ball offer. That leaves the idea of trading Lockhart/Saganiuk - two smaller forwards. But the problem with that is both have 2/3 years left. Their values are only likely to go up after this year, so why sell low?

Sedore/Bressette are options to move but at this stage you are getting nothing for them. Maybe by January they have value and again I already said I would be comfortable with them reevaluating in December/Jan in terms of development and team success. Sedore could be a real prime candidate since he might return something, is smaller, and creates OA log jam next year
But next year you return everyone but your 3 OAs and 2 of the Thomspson/ Morton and Campbell/Sedore/Cohen (2002s). The only one who fights into your size debate is Sedore.

The important thing imo is to have skill first. Teams value skill/speed. Who will hold more value in a trade come January? Smith or Ross? I guarantee Ross will because teams will see his skill, not his size.

Let me ask you this:
What route is better for the long term stability of the team, the fans, and is more realistic?

Option A: they play out this year making no major trades. Potentially move on from Sedore or Bressette in January if their young guys are developing. They win 37 games and finish 5th seed. Next year they add an import with size and trade/flip a player between one of Bressette/Artichuk for another forward with more size. They return most of their entire team, including all of their defensemen, and are set up to win 40-42 games.

Option B: they trade their only players worth value while still considering age. So they trade DAmato and Sedore. Maybe they even trade off Hoffmann or Sellan. They only get smaller as a result and lose one of their best forwards for the rest of the year. They win 27 games as result and finish 8th with record low attendance.

I mean these are the scenarios we are debating. Again, I’m all for selling off guys come January IF .. IF.. the team is still struggling to win. Which could certainly be the case because Hartsburg gives me no faith and Campbell is inconsistent at best. But right now we cannot have this debate. They might be able to win 35-37 games and be respectable. And that is 100% what they need to generate revenue/interest. We won’t know until December/January but.. With their returning roster next year, regardless of size, they would be able to maybe increase that to 40-42 wins off experience alone. Which this city/franchise needs or we can start up the talks about relocation again. Trust me, I’m with you on getting draft picks capital - hell I wanted to trade Drysdale more than anyone - but that was because he would get you 5/6 high picks and a young player. DAmato/Sedore can’t. Lockhart the only real value but he has 2 years left, is your likely captain/leader; and probably has his lowest trade value. His stock is more likely to rise, not decreas by next year.

The problem with selling players is that you risk your franchise crumbling further and future OHL players losing interest in you. Also it isn’t going to help to simply unload DAmato. It’s going to hurt in the win column short term and long term what do you even get? A second and forth round pick? I’m not sure that is worth it if you can even get that. So at that point, if you are going to sell then you need to trade more than just an OA to get back real picks and justify finishing 7/8th seed.

I get the size concern. I’m not thrilled with it either and they eventually need to address it. But why does it have to be now?
Lockhart - 2/3 years left
Saganiuk - 2/3 years left
Ross - 3/4 years left
Bressette - 3 years left
Sedore - 2 years left

They have plenty of time to player swap these guys to get bigger. Right now though? Let’s just focus on having skill to win. And also allowing these players to develop so they can create more trade value. Would be foolish to trade someone like Saganiuk/Ross now versus 1.5 years from now where you might double the return compensation..

 

[OHL Fan]

Sorry I asked

 

[Leo Minem]

While I don’t disagree and respect your thoughts, you are forgetting the fact that they haven’t even won since 2017. And I don’t mean haven’t won a title.. I mean haven’t won regular season games. The fans and revenue are at a low rate and COVID made matters 10x worse. They simply can’t afford, pun intended, to be a bottom tier team

Let me also continue to point out that even if they wanted to sell, who can they even trade? Their 3 OAs don’t hold significant value. Defensively speaking, they actually have size and upside there so not sure who you would move and short of Sova you would get a low ball offer. That leaves the idea of trading Lockhart/Saganiuk - two smaller forwards. But the problem with that is both have 2/3 years left. Their values are only likely to go up after this year, so why sell low?

Sedore/Bressette are options to move but at this stage you are getting nothing for them. Maybe by January they have value and again I already said I would be comfortable with them reevaluating in December/Jan in terms of development and team success. Sedore could be a real prime candidate since he might return something, is smaller, and creates OA log jam next year
But next year you return everyone but your 3 OAs and 2 of the Thomspson/ Morton and Campbell/Sedore/Cohen (2002s). The only one who fights into your size debate is Sedore.

The important thing imo is to have skill first. Teams value skill/speed. Who will hold more value in a trade come January? Smith or Ross? I guarantee Ross will because teams will see his skill, not his size.

Let me ask you this:
What route is better for the long term stability of the team, the fans, and is more realistic?

Option A: they play out this year making no major trades. Potentially move on from Sedore or Bressette in January if their young guys are developing. They win 37 games and finish 5th seed. Next year they add an import with size and trade/flip a player between one of Bressette/Artichuk for another forward with more size. They return most of their entire team, including all of their defensemen, and are set up to win 40-42 games.

Option B: they trade their only players worth value while still considering age. So they trade DAmato and Sedore. Maybe they even trade off Hoffmann or Sellan. They only get smaller as a result and lose one of their best forwards for the rest of the year. They win 27 games as result and finish 8th with record low attendance.

I mean these are the scenarios we are debating. Again, I’m all for selling off guys come January IF .. IF.. the team is still struggling to win. Which could certainly be the case because Hartsburg gives me no faith and Campbell is inconsistent at best. But right now we cannot have this debate. They might be able to win 35-37 games and be respectable. And that is 100% what they need to generate revenue/interest. We won’t know until December/January but.. With their returning roster next year, regardless of size, they would be able to maybe increase that to 40-42 wins off experience alone. Which this city/franchise needs or we can start up the talks about relocation again. Trust me, I’m with you on getting draft picks capital - hell I wanted to trade Drysdale more than anyone - but that was because he would get you 5/6 high picks and a young player. DAmato/Sedore can’t. Lockhart the only real value but he has 2 years left, is your likely captain/leader; and probably has his lowest trade value. His stock is more likely to rise, not decreas by next year.

The problem with selling players is that you risk your franchise crumbling further and future OHL players losing interest in you. Also it isn’t going to help to simply unload DAmato. It’s going to hurt in the win column short term and long term what do you even get? A second and forth round pick? I’m not sure that is worth it if you can even get that. So at that point, if you are going to sell then you need to trade more than just an OA to get back real picks and justify finishing 7/8th seed.

I get the size concern. I’m not thrilled with it either and they eventually need to address it. But why does it have to be now?
Lockhart - 2/3 years left
Saganiuk - 2/3 years left
Ross - 3/4 years left
Bressette - 3 years left
Sedore - 2 years left

They have plenty of time to player swap these guys to get bigger. Right now though? Let’s just focus on having skill to win. And also allowing these players to develop so they can create more trade value. Would be foolish to trade someone like Saganiuk/Ross now versus 1.5 years from now where you might double the return compensation..

in my opinion,

The league is wide open, and with that considered, I think we could be in for a surprise in terms of what Erie can bring.

Also, realistically, the PBHH website height and weight is likely th r most reliable source for height and weight.

I think I remember these ones:
Morton 6'3 215
Campbell 6'6 205
D'amato 6'2 180
Sellan 5'9 175
Saganiuk was around 5'4 i believe
Ross 5'5 160
Sova 6'1 180
Hoffmann 6'3-4 230ish
Lalonde 6'2 180-190 ish

With a more concentrated schedule I think these guys will get in shape really quick and begin to produce at an accelerated rate. Speed kills. Endurance and speed is at the top of the food chain...

 

[NOA]

in my opinion,

The league is wide open, and with that considered, I think we could be in for a surprise in terms of what Erie can bring.

Also, realistically, the PBHH website height and weight is likely th r most reliable source for height and weight.

I think I remember these ones:
Morton 6'3 215
Campbell 6'6 205
D'amato 6'2 180
Sellan 5'9 175
Saganiuk was around 5'4 i believe
Ross 5'5 160
Sova 6'1 180
Hoffmann 6'3-4 230ish
Lalonde 6'2 180-190 ish

With a more concentrated schedule I think these guys will get in shape really quick and begin to produce at an accelerated rate. Speed kills. Endurance and speed is at the top of the food chain...

Yes the PBHH did do height/weight for NHL scouts. This is what Erie had in June:

DAmato 6’1 180lbs
Sellan 5’9 177
Hoffmann 6’3 225
Sproule 5’11 170
Sova 6’1 174
Ross 5’6 152
Morton 6’3 211
Lalonde 6’3 184
Sedore 5’9 168
Bressette 5’10 157
Campbell 6’6 205
Saganiuk 5’4 140

Compared to 2019-20:
DAmato is up 18lbs
Sellan is up 11lbs
Sedore is up 12lbs and 1 inch taller
Bressette is 2 inches taller
Hoffmann is up 20lbs and 1 inch taller
Sproule is up 3lbs and 1 inch taller
Morton is up 19lbs and 2 inches taller

Lockhart didn’t play in PBHH but was all in on his off ice training to get bigger/stronger. Cohen was 5’11 but lighter.. he should have added some weight. Everyone appears heavier and some guys taller. The biggest difference is you add Saganiuk/Ross and they are undersized. But at the same time Saganiuk was a USNDT player and PSU commit while Ross was an OSU commit. Erie didn’t draft these guys for their height, they drafted for speed/skill which you can’t really trade for unless you are all in

Does Erie still win a championship in 2017 if they add another DeBrincat and lose Fellows? Yup. Probably a memorial cup too.

The size thing is overrated, at least for now. It would be a problem if they were trying to win a memorial cup but they aren’t. And if guys like Sellan/Sedore are 10lbs heavier/stronger, they should be able to handle battles better than last time they played and smaller guys like Ross/Saganiuk will win their battles speed and low center of gravity. All Erie needs to do is balance the lines to compensate for it. I’m sure there will come a point in time when Erie is going for a title run and Dave Brown recognizes they need to get bigger. So their 2/3 trade additions will be for those types of players. Much like he did in 2017 when he add size/strength.

 

[NOA]

For what it is worth, I heard Terrance signed a couple of days ago. Not sure why they haven’t announced it but they also waited like 3-4 days to announce Kaleb Smith and the other 5 signings

 

[OHL4Life]

For what it is worth, I heard Terrance signed a couple of days ago. Not sure why they haven’t announced it but they also waited like 3-4 days to announce Kaleb Smith and the other 5 signings

if hes listed on the preseason roster, which he is, hes signed. they dont register unsigned players on there. was he at camp?

 

[NOA]

if hes listed on the preseason roster, which he is, hes signed. they dont register unsigned players on there. was he at camp?

Yes he was at camp. But they haven’t announced it and from what I was told, he was only officially signed a few days ago. He didn’t play in preseason game 1, which might indicate he wasn’t signed at that point. But idk

 

[Antiillafire]

What is the forward group looking like for the season. Not saying Slafkovsky will come over, but he was just healthy scratched for the opening TPS game. If he only plays sporadically and in the bottom 6 for TPS, it won’t help his development. Potentially he could come over mid way through season.

 

[NOA]

What is the forward group looking like for the season. Not saying Slafkovsky will come over, but he was just healthy scratched for the opening TPS game. If he only plays sporadically and in the bottom 6 for TPS, it won’t help his development. Potentially he could come over mid way through season.

Appreciate the update.

Erie has plenty of depth but they either are young and unproven, small, or don’t have high end potential

Slafkovsky would easily slide into top 6 and Erie would guarantee that for him.

My assumption is they would do something like this:

Slafkovsky - Lockhart - Saganiuk
Sedore - Cohen - D’Amato
Ross - Bressette - Hoffmann
Lowe - Terrance - Smith/Artichuk

Slafkovskys size and ability immediately puts him with Lockhart imo. I think it would mean they trade Sellan or Sproule (their extra OA). I also think it means they become a real threat to be something legit next year. That above lineup would return everyone but the OAs/Sedore. The defense and Lalonde in net would all be back. And you would potentially have the star power with Slafkovsky, Lockhart, Saganiuk, Terrance and maybe Ross/Cohen/Bressette as solid role players.

 

[EON]

Appreciate the update.

Erie has plenty of depth but they either are young and unproven, small, or don’t have high end potential

Slafkovsky would easily slide into top 6 and Erie would guarantee that for him.

My assumption is they would do something like this:

Slafkovsky - Lockhart - Saganiuk
Sedore - Cohen - D’Amato
Ross - Bressette - Hoffmann
Lowe - Terrance - Smith/Artichuk

Slafkovskys size and ability immediately puts him with Lockhart imo. I think it would mean they trade Sellan or Sproule (their extra OA). I also think it means they become a real threat to be something legit next year. That above lineup would return everyone but the OAs/Sedore. The defense and Lalonde in net would all be back. And you would potentially have the star power with Slafkovsky, Lockhart, Saganiuk, Terrance and maybe Ross/Cohen/Bressette as solid role players.

Man that is an awesome looking lineup, Slafkovsky coming over would solve so many problems for Erie. Absolutely an instant top line player, both 5v5 and on the PP (perhaps PK time as well). He brings a combination of elite talent with good size that the roster just doesn't have right now.

Erie could perhaps try and work something out where they "loan" Slafkovsky from TPS, so he retains the ability to go back to TPS next season after getting drafted or perhaps try and go straight to the AHL (though I'd love for him to be on the roster in 22/23 as well).

 

[NOA]

Man that is an awesome looking lineup, Slafkovsky coming over would solve so many problems for Erie. Absolutely an instant top line player, both 5v5 and on the PP (perhaps PK time as well). He brings a combination of elite talent with good size that the roster just doesn't have right now.

Erie could perhaps try and work something out where they "loan" Slafkovsky from TPS, so he retains the ability to go back to TPS next season after getting drafted or perhaps try and go straight to the AHL (though I'd love for him to be on the roster in 22/23 as well).

For sure would give the team a really good amount of depth up front. I think right now they already have good offensive depth but this would push everyone back and open the possibility of trading someone like Sellan or Sedore/Bressette for picks.

In that scenario you could flip those picks and add a more stable defensive option which gives you a chance to compete more in the West

This Erie team is really missing 1/2 star players and some experience on the backend. Otherwise I think they have some nice young pieces. Look back to 2015/2016.. they were young with Maksimovich/Raddysh in year 2 and Lodnia/Neumann as rookies. Sambrook/Byrne rookies on the backend. Fergus in year 2 and Cernak new to the league. Sure helps when you have Strome and DeBrincat to carry the load though.. and imo this team has plenty of young talent when compared to 2015

Star players make it much easier. I look at a team like Oshawa and Flint. Imo both teams have awful depth up front. But when you have Tullio/Harrison or Othmann/Morgan, your job is easier as a coach and team.

 

[hellwar9]

I think his chances to coming to Erie are increasing. Today he starts "only" in TPS U20 and this is not the level where he wants to play this season. If he doesn't start playing among men soon, he will be looking for other options and OHL and Erie is probably the most logical.

 

[NOA]

Firebirds Acquire James Mayotte from North Bay – Flint Firebirds

Otters were able to pick up Thompson for a 9th rounder in 2024. Mayotte has worse stats in similar games played yet Flint traded a 5th in 2024. Great job, Dave Brown!

 

[dirty12]

Firebirds Acquire James Mayotte from North Bay – Flint Firebirds

Otters were able to pick up Thompson for a 9th rounder in 2024. Mayotte has worse stats in similar games played yet Flint traded a 5th in 2024. Great job, Dave Brown!

Mayotte is the better player. NB just needed room to sign 3rd round picks from the last two drafts and reward an 18 yr old camp surprise with an education package which is quite classy, imo. They are still at 9-signed D.
Teams acquiring players this summer are getting bargains, I think.

 

[OHL Fan]

Firebirds Acquire James Mayotte from North Bay – Flint Firebirds

Otters were able to pick up Thompson for a 9th rounder in 2024. Mayotte has worse stats in similar games played yet Flint traded a 5th in 2024. Great job, Dave Brown!

Flint used 6th round pick in 2025 for Mayotte who had 3 times more points than Thompson in similar games played.
Thompson has only played D for a few years and is very raw.
I think Flint got the better d.

 

[NOA]

Flint used 6th round pick in 2025 for Mayotte who had 3 times more points than Thompson in similar games played.
Thompson has only played D for a few years and is very raw.
I think Flint got the better d.

Both had little to no production. So saying 3x the amount of points for 9pts of production from Mayotte is a bit convenient way to stretch an argument. To stretch my argument I will say that Mayotte had 2.5x worse plus/minus numbers.

Based on 2019 season lineups, Mayotte appeared to play a bit more minutes but I don’t know if it’s significant time difference. Mayotte played 2/3 pairing. Thompson played 3rd. Neither of them played in 2018-19. So safe to say it’s a gamble either way on what they can give you and the consistency they show. I prefer the cheaper price for a similar gamble

 

[dirty12]

Both had little to no production. So saying 3x the amount of points for 9pts of production from Mayotte is a bit convenient way to stretch an argument. To stretch my argument I will say that Mayotte had 2.5x worse plus/minus numbers.

Based on 2019 season lineups, Mayotte appeared to play a bit more minutes but I don’t know if it’s significant time difference. Mayotte played 2/3 pairing. Thompson played 3rd. Neither of them played in 2018-19. So safe to say it’s a gamble either way on what they can give you and the consistency they show. I prefer the cheaper price for a similar gamble

Mayotte is no doubt the better player, ok at every aspect and has plenty of upside.