Entry Draft Lottery results a big secret

[Off The Wire]

I was talking more along the lines of the actual draft lottery.

Deciding it behind closed doors and then coming out, saying team A has the #1 pick is booooooooring.

They have a chance to make this into a big production and I fear they are going to drop the ball on this one...again.

 

[KL*]

More importantly, it would help keeping down speculations about conspiracy and saving NHL left credibility if one of the suspicious teams will the draw.

Guess you've never heard about the "frozen envelope" in the eighties and the #1 pick to, conveniently enough, the team that had just been taken over two weeks earlier by the NBA's biggest superstar of all time...

Just because it's on TV doesn't mean the fix wouldn't be in. The NBA does it regularly. I wonder how Cleveland just happened to get the #1 pick when hometown hero Lebron was coming up, hmm?

 

[KL*]

No. It doesn't affect the odds at all. It just would make for boring TV.

If all balls for teams already selected are just ignored, tossed aside, and the pick repeated until an unselected team comes up, it has absolutely zero effect on the odds. Of course in the worst case you could be looking at 18 straight pick, look, opps, pick agains.

When a team wins, they take the team's remaining balls out before continuing.

 

[bcrt2000]

I was talking more along the lines of the actual draft lottery.

Deciding it behind closed doors and then coming out, saying team A has the #1 pick is booooooooring.

They have a chance to make this into a big production and I fear they are going to drop the ball on this one...again.

well just wait until you pass final judgement.. i have a feeling thursday will be one of the best days for the game of hockey since the heritage classic

 

[sabresfan65]

I don't see anyone calling it fixed if Buffalo gets it....

But I would enjoy it very much.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

I envisioned the draft lottery as being a half-hour telecast a la NCAA March Madness tournament selection show on CBS. That show doesn't reveal how the brackets were determined, the results are just are shown to us with a little analysis and a few commercials mixed in. I always love watching that show. And I was hoping to see something similar for the draft lottery next Thursday.

Now, as for the order of ping-pong ball selection, since math was never a strength for me ( ), I was wondering what would change if they began by selecting pick No. 30 and working their way up to No. 1 IF they placed ONLY ONE BALL in the bin for the four teams with three chances to get the top pick? Similarly, what would change, in terms of odds, if they placed 3 balls in the bin for the 16 teams who have only one chance to win the lottery? Wouldn't this be a way to actually stage the draft lottery live and not have to alter the odds?

This is how I would like to see this thing unfold: 30 minute show, start with No. 30 and go up to No. 1. Do 10 positions at a time before going to commercial (adds more drama). If there are still 48 balls in the bin, but only one apiece for Buf, CBJ, NYR and Pit, and three apiece for the 16 teams with the least chances, would that work?

Otherwise, I think they should just do it in the backrooms but still have the NBA-style envelopes revealed in reverse draft order. That would be cool. The LAST thing the league should go with is Bettman revealing the draft order in the middle of his re-launch speech. You know how many people would be clicking away when he was in the middle of his yada yada yada, and then come back to it a little later on...only to find that the draft order was already revealed! DOH!

 

[Traitor8]

Tsn should call Gary up and tell him that they are prepared to show the Lottery Draft on LIVE tv...good tv...good ratings....good publicity...

 

[BigE]

Tsn should call Gary up and tell him that they are prepared to show the Lottery Draft on LIVE tv...good tv...good ratings....good publicity...

This is something that Bettman probably already knows. I don't think the league is at all concerned with coverage in Canada. We're starving for hockey.

 

[GSC2k2*]

Guess you've never heard about the "frozen envelope" in the eighties and the #1 pick to, conveniently enough, the team that had just been taken over two weeks earlier by the NBA's biggest superstar of all time...

Just because it's on TV doesn't mean the fix wouldn't be in. The NBA does it regularly. I wonder how Cleveland just happened to get the #1 pick when hometown hero Lebron was coming up, hmm?

I know what you are talking about, but who are you referring to as the NBA's biggest superstar of alltime?

 

[helicecopter]

Guess you've never heard about the "frozen envelope" in the eighties and the #1 pick to, conveniently enough, the team that had just been taken over two weeks earlier by the NBA's biggest superstar of all time...

Just because it's on TV doesn't mean the fix wouldn't be in. The NBA does it regularly. I wonder how Cleveland just happened to get the #1 pick when hometown hero Lebron was coming up, hmm?

I don’t follow basketball so I don’t know that story, sorry.

As for lottery on TV being fixed, yes it‘s still possible but it’s not that easy and sure.
In this case on TV we could see that all the 48 balls had the right property.
We could also see if some teams’ balls come out all at first.
And if they wanted, they could make the lottery in a way that’s very difficult to think it’s fixed.
Just think about throwing 48 balls with the same colour in a big basket that can mechanically mix them. Then give someone a long shoveler, he mixes again with it and then picks up a ball. They are going to fix it? Good luck!

From a purely statistical standpoint, the chances would remain the same if you removed a “dead†ball if it were selected. However, the probability changes.

Same chances because of same (sum of) probability.

Insightfull. Please elaborate.
Yes they do have to remove them, as the sample, if you even understand statistics, would be invalid.

No, they don’t.

Let’s elaborate….

Suppose the Rangers with one of their 3 balls (3/48) are picked first.

Now consider another team, for example Columbus (3 balls as well).

-1st scenario-
For the second drawing, if you take out the two left NYR (dead)balls, Columbus has 3/45 to be picked second. 3/45=0.06666 --> 6,666%.


-2nd scenario-
Now reconsider the second drawing without taking away NYR dead balls: 47 balls are still in the basket. That gives Columbus a 3/47 probability to be picked straight away.

BUT that’s not all, you have to add Columbus’ chances resulting from the eventuality that one of the two dead balls is picked instead, so that the second drawing has to be repeated. There are 2/47 chances that a dead ball is the one picked in the second drawing. In the consequent repetition, 46 balls are left and Columbus has 3/46 chances to see one of their balls picked.
So that means Columbus has (2/47)X(3/46) more chances to be picked second.

Again, it’s not all. In the first repetition (2/47 to be taken) there is the remote eventuality (1/46) that the one NYR left ball is picked. If that’s the case, a second repetition is taken with 45 balls left and this time Columbus has 3/45 chances to see one of their balls picked.
That means Columbus has (2/47)X(1/46)X(3/45) more chances to be picked second.


Now add together all the possibilities Columbus has to be picked second:
3/47 + (2/47)X(3/46) + (2/47)X(1/46)X(3/45)=
= 0.06383 + 0.00277 + 0.00006 = 0.06666 --> 6.666%


Insight-full?

 

[The Mighty Duck Man]

Guess you've never heard about the "frozen envelope" in the eighties and the #1 pick to, conveniently enough, the team that had just been taken over two weeks earlier by the NBA's biggest superstar of all time...

Just because it's on TV doesn't mean the fix wouldn't be in. The NBA does it regularly. I wonder how Cleveland just happened to get the #1 pick when hometown hero Lebron was coming up, hmm?

I'm not sure if that was fixed, but I know that even the WWE had a lottery on live television. It's not hard to fake any lottery, even if it is on live TV.

 

[codswallop]

In one ear and out the other.

Seems that the reality TV audience type of viewer is alive and well; gullibility still has its foothold.

The fates will damn you if an explanation is required for many comments posted here and before (ie, doesn't take advanced knowledge to sift through the issues we know).

 

[not quite yoda]

I'm just as mad as you guys at the NHL for this. They're missing a golden opportunity.

If it were up to me, I'd air it live from the end zone in Giants Stadium, with a loop of the Zapruder film and McCarthy hearings playing behind the podium, Gary Bettman could repel from a black helicopter to draw the first ping pong ball, after which Sidney Crosby can fly down in an UFO, and then the next week of course hold the draft at the Denver International Airport. Either go all the way or don't go at all.

As takky and newsworthy and entertaining as that would be... they can not hold the draft live.

becausea problem could occur (a malfunction of the lottery machine for example, and 2 balls from 2 different teams gets sucked up by the machine simultaneously and then we have a tie for the no1 pick?) and then there would be controversy. and if thre lottery is live with thousands watching it... it could be a black eye for the NHL.

as unexciting as it is, better be safe than sorry. play the lottery behind closed doors. if there s a problem, settle it in secret away from big brother, and everyone comes out with a smile on their face.

and the results come out NBA style.

and think abouut it, if it was live, then only the 1 st ball out would besuper exciting. and then the avg fan would tune out at no2 or no3 or no4 as his favourite team' s ball gets drawn out.

NBA style: winner of the lottery gets anounced last, which ,maintains suspense and drama and interest throughout the 30 pick anouncement.

 

[bcrt2000]

As takky and newsworthy and entertaining as that would be... they can not hold the draft live.

becausea problem could occur (a malfunction of the lottery machine for example, and 2 balls from 2 different teams gets sucked up by the machine simultaneously and then we have a tie for the no1 pick?) and then there would be controversy. and if thre lottery is live with thousands watching it... it could be a black eye for the NHL.

as unexciting as it is, better be safe than sorry. play the lottery behind closed doors. if there s a problem, settle it in secret away from big brother, and everyone comes out with a smile on their face.

and the results come out NBA style.

and think abouut it, if it was live, then only the 1 st ball out would besuper exciting. and then the avg fan would tune out at no2 or no3 or no4 as his favourite team' s ball gets drawn out.

NBA style: winner of the lottery gets anounced last, which ,maintains suspense and drama and interest throughout the 30 pick anouncement.

I totally agree

 

[helicecopter]

they can not hold the draft live.

becausea problem could occur (a malfunction of the lottery machine for example, and 2 balls from 2 different teams gets sucked up by the machine simultaneously and then we have a tie for the no1 pick?) and then there would be controversy. and if thre lottery is live with thousands watching it... it could be a black eye for the NHL.

Draws are regularly televised in front of millions of people's eye in Europe for UEFA and FIFA competitions. That's a very weak argument to say the least.

 

[helicecopter]

Now, as for the order of ping-pong ball selection, since math was never a strength for me ( ), I was wondering what would change if they began by selecting pick No. 30 and working their way up to No. 1 IF they placed ONLY ONE BALL in the bin for the four teams with three chances to get the top pick? Similarly, what would change, in terms of odds, if they placed 3 balls in the bin for the 16 teams who have only one chance to win the lottery? Wouldn't this be a way to actually stage the draft lottery live and not have to alter the odds?
.. If there are still 48 balls in the bin, but only one apiece for Buf, CBJ, NYR and Pit, and three apiece for the 16 teams with the least chances, would that work?

No. You would have 72 balls ( long process) and you would indeed alter the odds. If they are going to keep 48 balls and want to start with pick #30 they have to complete the order (from 1 through 30) drawing out the 48 balls and than reverse it.

 

[KL*]

I know what you are talking about, but who are you referring to as the NBA's biggest superstar of alltime?

Michael Jordan, obviously.

 

[I am Jack's Fish]

I am telling you people, the balls dont have logos of the teams on them or anything. The balls are all individually numbered and they draw a certain amount out of the bin. They then match up the numbers to a chart which gives them the winner of the lottery draft.

 

[futurcorerock]

Uh yeah, because the press conference is going to be on tv for 2 hours while they sort out the draft order, right?

They have to draw 30 different balls, it's going to take a while. Who in the US will broadcast 2 hours of hot ball-on-ball action?

 

[Buffaloed]

Does the NHL have an accounting firm present to inspect the equipment, evaluate the process, and certify the results as accurate like the NBA does? I believe the NBA went to this after the big brouhaha that erupted when the Knicks won the 1985 lottery and picked Patrick Ewing. Given the process that was used in 1985, it's impossible to say whether that lottery was rigged or not.

 

[helicecopter]

I am telling you people, the balls dont have logos of the teams on them or anything. The balls are all individually numbered and they draw a certain amount out of the bin. They then match up the numbers to a chart which gives them the winner of the lottery draft.

But they should do it this way:

..just draw all 48 balls and only count the last ball drawn for a particular team. So if the Ranger's balls are drawn at positions 41, 27 and 12, then they get the 12th pick.

Unchanged odds to pick first (3/48 for the Rangers as each NYRball has 1/48 to be the one left in the end) and to pick in the other positions as well I think!
Zero dead balls and it’s PERFECT for suspence!

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

When they tell those picks they should start #30 would be fun

 

[hockeyfan42]

I get it!

You just come off a 301 day lockout.

Fans are hungry for anything new that is not the same old CBA run around.

You have the most anticipated prospect since a Gretzky/Lemieux.

For the first time in history, all 30 teams have a shot at the number 1 pick.

You are trying to re-market the game again and can easily make stars out of the first 5 picks before they even step on the ice.

You just spent a year crying about how we have no money, and pass on the tv deals this could generate.

Everyone will watch this thing even if it is only 5 minutes long.
What's the NHL's decision?.....Not to televise the draft? WTF!?! It makes no sense.

I get it. The guys running the show today are still the same guys who have been running the league into the ground for the past ten years. Literally, tens of millions of dollars have been wasted. Totally wasted! Don't think just because there's a salary cap that these idiots can't continue to squander their opportunities to repackage the NHL.

 

[GaryU]

Does the NHL even HAVE a Marketing Director/Dept??????????????? What a bunch of idiots..

 

[Phil333]

Uh yeah, because the press conference is going to be on tv for 2 hours while they sort out the draft order, right?

They have to draw 30 different balls, it's going to take a while. Who in the US will broadcast 2 hours of hot ball-on-ball action?

MTV has a new all gay channel (I forget what it's called). Maybe they will do it?