Eichel vs Matthews

[Master P]

something something lopsided result

 

[Snippit]

The operative word.

I've said all along this is a nice hot streak for Eichel.

His numbers will come down, but he is producing at a way higher rate than Matthews rate now, both 5v5, ES and in all situations. The question isn't whether it will come down (I don't think he maintains a freaking 115 point pace) but will it come down enough for Matthews to come out ahead by season's end? If Eichel regresses, it's more likely it points him on a level of offensive production close to Matthews because right now he's well ahead.

Matthews oISH% is also above his career average too (not as much as Eichel's, but still almost 3% above).

Also let's not forget Matthews for the first time in his career is getting more favourable offensive deployment than Eichel in terms of zone starts. Also it's REALLY freaking important I think that Eichel always draws the other teams top lines and defenceman, while it looks like Tavares draws those match-ups for Toronto more often than Matthews.

You keep saying "a couple of weeks don't change anything", but remember using a sample size of 31 games, Eichel comes out ahead in 5v5 p/60, ES p/60 (aka the stats Tronna fans used to use to compare Matthews to McDavid), not to mention general points p/60 and raw point production.

 

[lauraP]

To be fair I think he might be talking throughout the duration of said contracts and believes matthews next step puts him higher than eichel while eichel is putting up absurd numbers on a mediocre team that he never has before while matthews consistently produced top point production numbers, while I'll say eichel is making a huge jump and playing his best hockey in all zones he has always improved yearly this year seems to be his big jump he has to repeat this though in order to get his recognition league wide. Eichel always showed glimpses of being a dynamic offensive force and ability to play a sound and effective two-way game and was heavily underated in previous years.
As a buffalo fan it was a bitter treat to watch him undress entire teams and make an insane play for a teammate only for them to fan on it or miss the net, he has improved tremendously in doing the little things since his rookie season. He has to keep improving his shot selection and stop second guessing himself/ over thinking which will lead to more goals/less overpassing and quicker decisions when he does pass, needs to add more deceptiveness too. Matthews has at least this year stagnated and possibly regressed in his effort level he is still a very good player he can have a huge spike in his play and suddenly look like a selke and hart candidate but eichel so far has done absolutely done everything he can to make the sabres look competitive. I believe both have another gear to reach with eichel being ahead slightly but clearly for the time being.

5 year x 11.6 million vs 8 year x 10 million i don't care which way you spin it Eichel contract is better hands down.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The question isn't whether it will come down (I don't think he maintains a freaking 115 point pace) but will it come down enough for Matthews to come out ahead by season's end?

I don't know. There might not be enough time in the one season to fully normalize; we'll have to see. Very possible though.

If Eichel regresses, it's more likely it points him on a level of offensive production close to Matthews because right now he's well ahead.

Yeah, given their respective starts, it is likely that they will fall around similar production this year.

Matthews oISH% is also above his career average too (not as much as Eichel's, but still almost 3% above).

No it's not.

Eichel's career average ES OISH% coming into the season was about 8.7%. His previous career high is 9.76%. He is currently at 14.04%, or 161% of his average.
Matthews' career average ES OISH% coming into the season was about 10.1%. He is currently at 9.61%, or 95% of his average.

Also let's not forget Matthews for the first time in his career is getting more favourable offensive deployment than Eichel in terms of zone starts.

This is a negligible difference. People always forget the massive number of shifts that are started on the fly.

Eichel starts 17.1% of the time in the offensive zone this year.
Matthews starts 18.3% of the time in the offensive zone this year.

Also it's REALLY freaking important I think that Eichel always draws the other teams top lines and defenceman, while it looks like Tavares draws those match-ups for Toronto more often than Matthews.

QOC has much less of an impact than QOT and is also overblown on here, but regardless, Matthews has faced the top match-ups this year. The Tavares line has been fully healthy and together for like 1 game this year...

You keep saying "a couple of weeks don't change anything"

Because literally a couple weeks ago (not to mention the rest of their careers), before Eichel started the biggest point streak of his career, and before Matthews went through a big cold streak that coincided with a coaching change, Matthews was ahead in everything. We are still at a small sample, just like we were at around this point last year when Matthews looked unstoppable.

 

[Orange Fanta]

5 year x 11.6 million vs 8 year x 10 million i don't care which way you spin it Eichel contract is better hands down.

I believe eichel's contract is better I'm just saying the other poster believes eichel is over performing vs mattbews under performing/stagnating and being a perennial rocket/hart/selke contender but I think of eichel being all of that during his prime but except for a rocket contender he'll contend for the ross.

 

[MattMartin]

1:39 mark...

 

[koyvoo]

Last three seasons -

Matthews 161 GP 169P = 1.049PPG
Eichel 175GP 188P = 1.074PPG

I do agree that Eichel is on a hot streak right now, but they’ve virtually produced at the exact same clip going back 3 years now. Factoring in that Matthews has no insides and competes like kitten so often, it really isn’t close at this point.

 

[Navx94]

Eichel has always been the better player. Matthews is a Aho/Barzal tier player that gets compared to mcdavid/eichel only because of the logo on his jersey.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Stats wise until this year, where it is Eichel 42-33 over Matthews, it has been close. But when you watch them head to head, this is where you can see Eichel always looks better than Matthews. When you add both contracts to the equation. 10 x 8 or 11.634 x 5. The gap widens even more.

 

[Orange Fanta]

Stats wise until this year, where it is Eichel 42-33 over Matthews, it has been close. But when you watch them head to head, this is where you can see Eichel always looks better than Matthews. When you add both contracts to the equation. 10 x 8 or 11.634 x 5. The gap widens even more.

That's the problem though until eichel consistently produces theses numbers people won't tune in to see him play regularly and see his dominance even if he doesn't get a point. I'm of the belief, since he entered the league, has been on of the most talented players (top 5) in terms of raw skills like shooting,stickhandling, skating etc... Even though he would not always play a complete 200 ft game (his bad defensive play was over exaggerated) you saw what could be and he's just starting to realize it. As for the contract it it only looked bad at the time to people who looked at stats and not his on ice play its a fair contract that will gain value as the cap goes up.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Last three seasons -

Matthews 161 GP 169P = 1.049PPG
Eichel 175GP 188P = 1.074PPG

I do agree that Eichel is on a hot streak right now, but they’ve virtually produced at the exact same clip going back 3 years now.

Except not.

Since 2017-2018:

ES P/60:

Matthews: 2.91
Eichel: 2.68

PP P/60:

Matthews: 6.44
Eichel: 5.44

Eichel has just been gifted a bunch more PP time.

Factoring in that Matthews has no insides and competes like kitten so often, it really isn’t close at this point.

Well, at least you're making your intentions clear with this nonsense.

 

[koyvoo]

Lol. It’s not nonsense for anyone who can watch him him without an emotional bond clouding their logic.

Do you think I say this vs every leaf player? This year has been tough but if you look at my posts from most of last season, you’ll see that I constantly praised the effort and compete of Tavares, Marner, Kapanen, Rielly (even argued for his ability in his own end being top rate) and Andersen.

The only leafs I ragged on, not because I have some agenda against them, but because of what they show on the ice for a majority of the time were Matthews and Nylander. They’re just baby poo soft.

You’re gonna sit there and say you see no difference between the compete Matthews had shown in his first season compared to what he’s shown since and expect to be taken seriously?

I said it before. If he had to play to save his mother’s life, you’d see a completely different player.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

I think if Eichel played for the Leafs he’d be getting a lot more hype. The two players are about equal in their careers for points but Eichel is more of a team leader who brings a physical component to his game and draws the tougher matchups as he doesn’t have another elite center like Tavares for other teams to focus on. Both great players but even ignoring contracts you take Eichel here without hesitation.

 

[BCNate]

Very close, both great players. I'm going with Eichel at this point. I like his game all around game a little bit better. Could really go either way though

 

[KlefDown]

Except not.

Since 2017-2018:

ES P/60:

Matthews: 2.91
Eichel: 2.68

PP P/60:

Matthews: 6.44
Eichel: 5.44

Eichel has just been gifted a bunch more PP time.


Well, at least you're making your intentions clear with this nonsense.

sorry that your coach didn't trust Matthews to play more than 18 mins a game. this is more of a knock on Matthews than Eichel

real production >

 

[lauraP]

That's the problem though until eichel consistently produces theses numbers people won't tune in to see him play regularly and see his dominance even if he doesn't get a point. I'm of the belief, since he entered the league, has been on of the most talented players (top 5) in terms of raw skills like shooting,stickhandling, skating etc... Even though he would not always play a complete 200 ft game (his bad defensive play was over exaggerated) you saw what could be and he's just starting to realize it. As for the contract it it only looked bad at the time to people who looked at stats and not his on ice play its a fair contract that will gain value as the cap goes up.

Eichels contract never looked bad. 82 points in 77 games first year of contract. eichel heading towards anywhere in between 80-100 points this season. only people who said it looked bad were leafs fans but once matthews marner and nylander got their contracts they change their tune... hmmm isn't that interesting

 

[Tad Mikowsky]

Auston Matthews gets looked at exclusively at p/60 to bump him up.

Shocking I tell you.

 

[Albi34]

Auston Matthews gets looked at exclusively at p/60 to bump him up.

Shocking I tell you.

And then you look at the massive discrepancy in minutes played over the course of a season and it makes more sense

 

[Snippit]

@Dekes For Days I'm getting my stats for HockeyReference

Auston Matthews Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

oISH%: 12.9 Career: 10.3

Tavares quite often draws the top match-ups. In fact, in the back to back against Buffalo, Tavares line was matched up with Eichel pretty much the whole time.

 

[lauraP]

Eichel produces more with a worse supporting cast, plays the harder match ups and makes less money.

 

[Menzinger]

Eichel is having a great seaosn, but anyone who thinks hes goingt continue to shoot at 6% above his previous career high is in for a rude awakening sooner rather than later

 

[Dekes For Days]

@Dekes For Days I'm getting my stats for HockeyReference

I have no idea what eggnog they got into, but their numbers seems to be inflated for everybody this year (they have Eichel at 17.2%), even though their previous year's numbers seem to be consistent with other sites. I'm using NaturalStatTrick, and it's a much more accurate site. Matthews is having average or slightly below average luck, despite dominating controllable metrics, while Eichel is having mind-blowing, out-of-this-world luck.

Tavares quite often draws the top match-ups.

Except he hasn't this year, not that it matters all that much anyway.

 

[Regal]

Eichel is having a great seaosn, but anyone who thinks hes goingt continue to shoot at 6% above his previous career high is in for a rude awakening sooner rather than later

Eichel's shooting percentage has always been very low for how good of a shooter he is and the quality of forward in general. It's possible he's improved in terms of picking his spots. His shot attempts are down from the past. 16% is high but it's not the 20+ you'll see from guys who end up with large regressions.

In fact, MacKinnon has a similar increase since he's broken out. His first 4 seasons he had a low 8.1% shooting percentage that has since increased 4.4% to 12.5% over the last three years combined.

 

[Emerz]

When I watch the 2 play vs my Bruins it's Eichel, he just has that "game controlling 1C" vibe that I don't get from Matthews. Matthews will get his goals no doubt, and is a great player, just see more in Eichel.

 

[34]

Both Matthews and Eichel are insanely Underrated!

As far as this season goes, I give the nod to Eichel as he has been the better player. Still lots of hockey to be played, so lets see after the 50 odd games.