I think Washington takes a step back. Like others have mentioned, they haven't replaced Ribeiro and don't have the luxury of playing Tampa, Florida, Carolina and Winnipeg for most of the season. The last two seasons they have scraped into the playoffs and now have a much harder schedule...
Their schedule isn't that much harder, although it is.
They may have lost Ribeiro, but they did add Erat who they'll have all year next year. Not an insignificant addition. Plus, they didn't have Ribeiro two years ago, although they did have Semin. I don't think the loss is as big as people are making it out to be.
I'm skeptical of the Caps, but not as skeptical as I am about the Leafs, Blue Jackets, Flyers, and especially the Canadiens. After 35 games, the Habs were falling fast (6-7-0). The only reason they won the division was because the season ended. They then got embarassed by the Senators in the first round in 5 games, being outscored 20-9.