Early Top 5 Craig's List for the 2019 Draft

[Sens of Anarchy]

Thing is, Boqvist didnt have a bad year per say. Sure, he had a hard time making the Brynäs A team, but no one really thought he would either. He just "fell out of taste" for Button and slipped the rankings in the end. Prior to this years draft, he said that Boqvists disappears when the games get tougher, right after Boqvist had 2 goals vs Canada in the U18 in a 2-3 loss. I mean, Button's pretty random, and it's obvious if you look back on things he said as well. Hes not Don Cherry, aka "Ryan Murphy will go number 1, I guarantee it!", but hes close

I don't disagree

 

[Juxtaposer]

I think the criticism of Button is overdone.

Judging by the end of the scouting season, non-conventional opinions of his that I remember:

2011: High on Huberdeau and Kucherov. #8 for Couturier where posters had him much higher.
2012: High on Filip Forsberg and Matthew Dumba.
2014: Low on Jake Virtanen (2nd round)
2017: Lower on Owen Tippett than most.

I hear the Poehling example. But, that was his early read and he didn't rank him that high by the end of the season.

For the 2017 draft, he was really high on Eeli Tolvanen then by end of the year dropped him closer to where he was drafted. But, his early take may have been right. We'll see.

I look at all these examples and I think he has a fairly valuable opinion to listen to.

Bryan

He also had Zach Fucale, Matt Finn, and Nathan Beaulieu top-10. He had Ryan Murphy 4th overall in 2011. He ranked Travis Sandheim over Will Nylander, and has Barzal at 15th overall in his draft year.

When you make outrageous rankings, you’re bound to be right a couple times. But for every good call he’s made, he’s made an equally outrageous bad call.

 

[bossram]

He also had Zach Fucale, Matt Finn, and Nathan Beaulieu top-10. He had Ryan Murphy 4th overall in 2011. He ranked Travis Sandheim over Will Nylander, and has Barzal at 15th overall in his draft year.

When you make outrageous rankings, you’re bound to be right a couple times. But for every good call he’s made, he’s made an equally outrageous bad call.

Exactly. Button's schtick is to make out-there, way-off consensus predictions. It gets people talking.

And actually, I do like that. I like that he has an individual list with some real opinions, not just going by whatever Bobby Mac puts out (no disrespect to him).

But you're right. Button is not a savant. He makes wild calls knowing sometimes he'll be right, and he'll look good. But the opposite is true too. There's a lot of cases with egg on his face.

 

[Blade Paradigm]

Cozens is a freaking stud.

Button is ridiculous. Turcotte and Newhook are very clearly a top5 pick but they aren't @ Hlinka so they're completely ignored. Whether he believes it or just hypes up whoever is on the broadcast he consistenly evaluates talent terribly.

I'm not sure any is really notable when we are talking about a top 5. I think Turcotte is the 2nd best in the draft, but 2-10 is pretty debatable.

Having watched last year's U18s, the WJC Summer Showcase, all of the televised Hlinka tournament games, as well as quite a bit of archived shift-by-shift footage of Hughes, Turcotte, Newhook, Kakko, Podkolzin, Krebs, Dach, Cozens, Lavoie, and a few others, I have the following tiers based on the players I have studied:

A. Elite offensive potential:

1. Hughes

2. Turcotte, Podkolzin, Kakko

------------

B. Top six potential:

3. Cozens

4. Krebs, Newhook, Dach

5. Lavoie

------------

The vision, puck skills and anticipation of Group A are above that of any of the Group B players I have seen. As of right now, I see the Group A players as the cream of the crop -- exceptional thinkers who are always around the puck, who can anticipate where the play will go next and put themselves in a position to intercept the puck or involve themselves in the play.

Kakko is a puck control monster with his size and reach; Podkolzin's shooting skills, meanwhile, are the best of the bunch. Turcotte is a takeaway magnet with a keen sense of where to be, great lower body strength to push through obstacles, in addition to great wheels and shiftiness to move the puck up the ice. I like the two-way awareness of the Group A2 players (Turcotte, Kakko, Podkolzin). Hughes is the sneakiest and quickest, but perhaps the lightest and most pass-first of the group. He doesn't have the same power as the others, but possesses the most finesse -- he's something of a McDavid-Gaudreau hybrid.

The rest have some significant faults and, I find, lesser puck skills than the top four.

I came away unimpressed with Newhook's overall game and do not consider him among the elite four. He is quick, but even at the BCHL level does not dictate the pace of the game enough when he is on the ice. While Hughes, Turcotte, Kakko and Podkolzin anticipate plays and think ahead of the opposition's next move, Newhook is a very reactive player -- not proactive. As a result, he spends a lot of time away from the puck and doesn't dominate plays. He moves the puck well when he has it due to his great speed and can distribute the puck fairly accurately, but he doesn't drive the offense enough. He doesn't separate the opposition from the puck enough, nor does he put himself in a position to get in their way. Turcotte, Podkolzin, and Kakko actively disrupt their opponents. Newhook isn't the type of player who has the puck on his stick all the time; even at the BCHL level, I've so far only seen a player who one needs to watch patiently for something interesting to happen. I don't place as much value on the types of players who have great wheels but don't touch the puck enough and spend a lot of time chasing. He is more of a speedy opportunist than an active, dominant line driver.

Newhook's influence on the ice seems to contradict his statistical record. I don't think he reads the game as quickly as Group A. I think he would have looked a lot more like Krebs and Dach last year if he had played in the WHL. Krebs is another high-speed player.

Podkolzin impresses me for reasons besides his goal-scoring prowess. He has a very strong defensive mindset without the puck, and is quick to support his defense, getting in lanes on the backcheck to cause his opponent problems and blocking shots. He is a 200-ft player. He also has exhibited puck skills beyond anything I've seen from any player so far outside of Hughes, Turcotte, and Kakko. He is always engaged in the play, has a physical edge to his game, and is strong on the puck despite being only 165 lbs. He plays with determination and is quick on his skates -- agile, and capable of jumping up into the play quickly with an explosive step. His ability to anticipate and put himself in good defensive position to turn the play around is a lot like Turcotte's. His shot release really only adds to his strengths. He's intelligent. There is so much to like about his overall game.

For the record, Hockey Prospect ranked Podkolzin #9 in June. Their rankings are generally among the best. I see him jumping further up their list by the time of their next publication. Button isn't the first to have Podkolzin ranked in the Top 10.

I like the overall two-way package that Cozens provides, with his size, speed, and power. I don't see enough finesse from him to categorize him among the top players, though. He plays a very conventional power center type of game that could definitely make him a two-way, first-line center in the NHL one day. From an offensive perspective, though, he hasn't shown elite offensive abilities. He has a good shot, moves the puck quite well, is dangerous around the net, can make power moves around opponents and rag the puck around, but I don't see the same offensive skill from him that I see from my Top 4. I have him as the fifth-best forward right now because of his complete game.

Dach leaves me wanting more sometimes. He has a better offensive skill set than Cozens but doesn't have anywhere near the same motor or determination. He is another player who, like Newhook, hovers around a lot without touching the puck. When he has it, he can reach a fairly good top speed, and he is very dangerous around the net. He is a pass-first type of player who can hold possession of the puck along the boards and feather skilled passes to teammates. However, he doesn't have the exceptional mind of the Group A players to be able to anticipate, intercept plays and turn the game around on a consistent basis. He is another reactive player whose offensive instincts seem a little more pedestrian than the top group. His defensive game isn't better than the top players on my list either, nor are his puck skills. He is a big man with good puck control, but not the dynamic puck skills of the top group.

I agree with Broberg being the best-looking 2019-eligible defenceman at the Hlinka. I thought he outshone Byram to quite a significant degree; I thought 2020-eligible defenceman Justin Barron looked better than Byram as well. However, above I've only ranked the forwards I'm very familiar with at this time.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Exactly. Button's schtick is to make out-there, way-off consensus predictions. It gets people talking.

And actually, I do like that. I like that he has an individual list with some real opinions, not just going by whatever Bobby Mac puts out (no disrespect to him).

But you're right. Button is not a savant. He makes wild calls knowing sometimes he'll be right, and he'll look good. But the opposite is true too. There's a lot of cases with egg on his face.

Right, exactly. I don’t mind Button at all, even if his rankings can be wacky. But declaring him some prospect genius is silly.

 

[Daximus]

Button is a very reactionary ranker. He see's a kid play well and they get a boost instantly, kid plays bad and they get knocked down. Loves international tournaments which seems to be where he forms the bulk of his opinion. Then tends to ride that into CHL playoffs and Mem Cup. He's a tournament ranker mostly it seems.