GDT: Ducks at Canes...

[tarheelhockey]

Vegas and NJ are top-4 in the league right now for Goals Scored. Arguably two of the least talented squads in the NHL. Meanwhile Edmonton is dead last and Pittsburgh is scoring at the same rate as the Canes.

It's frustrating but I want to give it another 10 games. Aho can't hit the net to save his life (despite generating a lot of chances) and the entire team seems to be mired in an "Over-Engineer the play" mindset. The only guys playing consistent, simple games are the 4th line and Skinner (who - surprise surprise has 7 goals).

Edmonton at least makes sense because their PP has been atrocious (50% worse than ours even) so you'd expect them to be missing a lot of goals right now. Whereas Jersey's inexplicably running the 5th best PP in the league so you'd expect them to be overrepresented in the goals department.

Vegas and Pittsburgh are basically just mirror images of each other. Nobody seriously thinks Vegas is going to continue to have half a dozen players at 30-goal pace, just like nobody expects Crosby to finish the season with like 70 points. The broad consensus is that those teams aren't what they appear to be at the moment, and will return to form soon enough.

Carolina... we don't exactly have a shining history of offensive production to back up the idea that this team is going to springboard to a different level sometime soon. We are carrying three (3) forwards who have scored more than 50 points in a season at some point in their career. Two of those are Skinner and Williams, who are already operating at max capacity. The third is Stempniak, who's mysteriously absent and may not be coming back any time soon (or in game shape).

So beyond that, it's entirely a matter of hoping and praying that the middle-range young guys (Aho, Teravainen, Lindholm, Rask) turn out to be what we thought they were. And replicating their past stats won't cut it. We need Lindhom to build on his career-high 45 points. We need more than 49 from Aho, more than 42 from Turbo, more than 48 from Rask. Otherwise there's little chance we build on that 17th-19th scoring range that we've held for the past 4 years running.

I'm willing to give them more time, too, but there's also a harsh possibility that these guys don't get much better than what we've seen already. For example, watching Aho cut through the defense once or twice a game doesn't excuse the 10 times he fumbles with the puck on what should have been a clean zone entry. Watching Lindholm bang around in the corners is nice, but does nothing if he can't drive the puck to the net. Those things NEED to get better, and in fairly short order, or we're totally screwed because we're not squeezing any more juice from Skinner and Williams.

 

[tarheelhockey]

And this is where that subjectivity fails: it's easy to notice when the bounces don't go your way, but when they do, it's hard to discern.

The problem is that it's becoming less a matter of bounces, and more a matter of guys missing shots that a better player would bury with ease. At that point, a distinction starts to develop between two different calibers of player.

 

[Tryamw]

Yeah getting more juice from Skinner Williams isn't happening could trade for the Juice for the juice need though. (/s) Please Don't do this 'Canes This is a terribull idea.We need another natural goal scorer.

 

[GoldiFox]

Edmonton at least makes sense because their PP has been atrocious (50% worse than ours even) so you'd expect them to be missing a lot of goals right now. Whereas Jersey's inexplicably running the 5th best PP in the league so you'd expect them to be overrepresented in the goals department.

Vegas and Pittsburgh are basically just mirror images of each other. Nobody seriously thinks Vegas is going to continue to have half a dozen players at 30-goal pace, just like nobody expects Crosby to finish the season with like 70 points. The broad consensus is that those teams aren't what they appear to be at the moment, and will return to form soon enough.

Carolina... we don't exactly have a shining history of offensive production to back up the idea that this team is going to springboard to a different level sometime soon. We are carrying three (3) forwards who have scored more than 50 points in a season at some point in their career. Two of those are Skinner and Williams, who are already operating at max capacity. The third is Stempniak, who's mysteriously absent and may not be coming back any time soon (or in game shape).

So beyond that, it's entirely a matter of hoping and praying that the middle-range young guys (Aho, Teravainen, Lindholm, Rask) turn out to be what we thought they were. And replicating their past stats won't cut it. We need Lindhom to build on his career-high 45 points. We need more than 49 from Aho, more than 42 from Turbo, more than 48 from Rask. Otherwise there's little chance we build on that 17th-19th scoring range that we've held for the past 4 years running.

I'm willing to give them more time, too, but there's also a harsh possibility that these guys don't get much better than what we've seen already. For example, watching Aho cut through the defense once or twice a game doesn't excuse the 10 times he fumbles with the puck on what should have been a clean zone entry. Watching Lindholm bang around in the corners is nice, but does nothing if he can't drive the puck to the net. Those things NEED to get better, and in fairly short order, or we're totally screwed because we're not squeezing any more juice from Skinner and Williams.

I totally agree with all of that. Nearly the entirety of the roster is one or two tiers below where they need to be for the team to be an actual contender. The roster is full of complimentary pieces.

At the core of the "meh" for me is the Centers. Most Cup hopefuls have Centers that bump up those complimentary pieces to a higher level. The Canes have Jordan Staal, Victor Rask, and Derek Ryan.

Rask and Ryan should be complimentary wingers themselves. They do absolutely nothing to make those around them better and it has been painfullly apparent. Terrible centermen from an offensive standpoint. Both guys masqueraded as decent Centers last year on the backs of Skinner and Aho.

Jordan Staal is what he is. He makes a ton of space for his wingers to operate which is great. That helps produce offense. Unfortunately when those wingers try to involve Jordan in that offense, he is hit or miss due to a blatant lack of skill. For the rest of his career Staal is going to have a ~50% hit rate on open nets and golden scoring chances.

If it wasn't apparent that the Canes need a Center with some hint of skill before it should be now. Until they trade for one, Aho adds 20+ lbs, or Necas comes through the Canes will be a bottom-10 scoring team. They don't have the horses (preaching to the choir here, I know).

Despite the lack of offensive talent I think the Playoffs are still in the cards. The Canes just need some lightning in a bottle with a couple of Lindholm, Aho, and TT.

 

[Joe McGrath]

Having Aho score more than zero goals would improve the scoring. When you have a top 9 player score zero goals in 10 games it’s not usually a winning formula, unless you have an all powerful top 3, which the Canes ofcourse do not.

 

[MinJaBen]

What worries me about this is that the longer it continues, the more evidence it is that we’re just fundamentally lacking in the skill department.

Vegas and NJ are top-4 in the league right now for Goals Scored/GP. Arguably two of the least talented squads in the NHL. Meanwhile Edmonton is dead last and Pittsburgh is scoring at the same rate as the Canes.

It's frustrating but I want to give it another 10 games. Aho can't hit the net to save his life (despite generating a lot of chances) and the entire team seems to be mired in an "Over-Engineer the play" mindset. The only guys playing consistent, simple games are the 4th line and Skinner (who - surprise surprise has 7 goals).

I'm starting to think we are seeing this wrong. As time goes by, I'm less and less inclined to believe that the players are the problem and more inclined to believe that it is the coaching. Not that Peters is a bad coach, but that his system/philosophy is doing something that just doesn't work well on the offensive side. I don't know what it is, but it's like with our goalie acquisitions over the last several years, it doesn't seem to matter how they've played elsewhere, when they get here, they perform the same...bad. Maybe the offensive issues are similar. I look at the Wild and the Kings as examples of how much difference a coaching philosophy change can have on the offensive production. The Kings over the last several years were very controlled in their offense and were seen to be struggling and in decline. Then Sutter is let go and Stevens takes over with his less restrictive offensive style...now they are looking like one of the best in the West. Essentially the same players, but better production from top to bottom. A similar change occurred when the Wild went from Yeo to Boudreau, they look much better on the offensive side of the puck now, too.

 

[tarheelhockey]

I'm starting to think we are seeing this wrong. As time goes by, I'm less and less inclined to believe that the players are the problem and more inclined to believe that it is the coaching. Not that Peters is a bad coach, but that his system/philosophy is doing something that just doesn't work well on the offensive side.

The problem is, this directly contradicts the idea that the players are regularly getting chances to score and just not burying them.

 

[Joe McGrath]

I'm starting to think we are seeing this wrong. As time goes by, I'm less and less inclined to believe that the players are the problem and more inclined to believe that it is the coaching. Not that Peters is a bad coach, but that his system/philosophy is doing something that just doesn't work well on the offensive side. I don't know what it is, but it's like with our goalie acquisitions over the last several years, it doesn't seem to matter how they've played elsewhere, when they get here, they perform the same...bad. Maybe the offensive issues are similar. I look at the Wild and the Kings as examples of how much difference a coaching philosophy change can have on the offensive production. The Kings over the last several years were very controlled in their offense and were seen to be struggling and in decline. Then Sutter is let go and Stevens takes over with his less restrictive offensive style...now they are looking like one of the best in the West. Essentially the same players, but better production from top to bottom. A similar change occurred when the Wild went from Yeo to Boudreau, they look much better on the offensive side of the puck now, too.

That approach works when you get Vezina caliber goaltending. When you get replacement level goaltending you end up losing 4-3 instead of 2-1. See Stars, Dallas.

 

[bluedevil58]

So we should have gone with Bishop. Is that what you're getting at?

 

[MinJaBen]

The problem is, this directly contradicts the idea that the players are regularly getting chances to score and just not burying them.

I don't believe all chances are created equal and I don't believe we want all players getting the same chances. Yes, of course there are glaring recent examples where guys had grade A chances that we want to get those chances and failed to convert (I'm looking at you Mr. Aho). What I'm talking about more generally is the disparity between our corsi numbers and our shooting percentage numbers. Maybe the system we have is not encouraging the right type of shots to be made (in general) which is limiting their success rate, and not the skill that is limiting the success rate.

 

[MinJaBen]

That approach works when you get Vezina caliber goaltending. When you get replacement level goaltending you end up losing 4-3 instead of 2-1. See Stars, Dallas.

All things considered, I think you can probably sell more tickets to watch us lose 4-3 than the number of tickets you can sell to watch us lose 2-1. Wining a game is the goal, but a loss can be entertaining, too, if it is the right kind of loss.