Yeah, all we Avs fans were told from well before the trade deadline until the draft from Sabres fans was that there was zero chance Murray would ever move Zadorov for O'Reilly. it was always going to be Pysyk instead of Zadorov. Then we saw how that went down. And now we've heard from multiple insiders that the asking price on Duchene is extremely high, and that Sakic wants defense. I doubt he'll somehow decide to cave and accept Juulsen. The Avs were high on Sergachev at the draft, I am very confident that will be the ask. Montreal fans want their cake, and they want to get to eat it too. Acquire a top line 26 year old who is signed with zero character issues, keep coveted top prospect, trade away a couple of B prospects and a late 1st. I say that is dreamland.
Not denying Sergachev for Duchene is a fair basis for a deal, but Bergevin is pretty stingy. If it were for Sergachev it'd probably just be him and a cap dump then. I think people will be very surprised what the Avs get from this trade.
As for Zadorov, we're talking about the 7th picked d-man ranked 16th in his draft versus the 2nd picked d-man ranked 9th. Obviously they aren't even the same tier of 1st round pick in their respective drafts. Not saying Zadorov can't end up being the best D of his draft btw, just putting it into context, but at the same time I do value Duchene more than O'Reilly.
I think personally that Avs wanted Sergachev in the 2016 draft and we pulled him out right before they had their chance. So I think you're probably right and it will require Sergachev in order to get the deal done otherwise Avs just keep Duchene. But if people are expecting Sergachev + 1st + roster player + 2nd + cap dump or something it IMO isn't going to happen. More than likely Sergachev + pick + cap dump, and wouldn't even be shocked if that pick is a 2nd.
Habs fans value Sergachev high and believe bare minimum he's a high end 2nd pairing guy with offensive skill and size, at the top end he's a 1st pairing guy with the same skill set. Obviously anything can happen, maybe the guys a bust but the fan base doesn't believe he will be.
If that turns out being the case, at the bare minimum Avs get a top notch 2nd pairing guy + pick for a guy they obviously are trying to move. With the potential to be more, but like I said with a prospect of course anything can happen. I expect that Sakic has similar faith in Sergachev that our fanbase does or he wouldn't be trying to swing a deal with us.