Because Jenks backed out, they expect Duchene to back out? Quality stuff there. Humorous reading for those who missed this from this Scouting News article:
'14 and 15 year old kids are not dumb like they make themselves out to be -- they know the game inside and out and they know all their options.
If they don't, they have agents, advisors and coaches who do.
Parents also know the game.
We never met a parent of a high end kid who doesn't love to ask questions.
Everyone is informed today.
Parents of high end players learn the ropes very quickly.
If they don't then they are just stupid.
Most are not stupid.
They have invested to much time and money to be stupid.
Misguided?
Yes some parents are misguided, but not stupid.'
I stand by my opinion of that article.
Regarding Mueller...there's lots of stuff on Mueller...from local friends, family and inside the NTDP. All said it was about school. It was nothing about a burning desire to play hockey in a small town in Washington.
As I said, there's a big difference in maturity between '84er players who are 9 of the top 10 performers in the NCAAs and CHL '86ers (which are the oldest players found in abundance).
The elite NCAA players rarely stay four years, they're signed and in the NHL after a season or two as a rule. The really elite junior players play two and three seasons in juniors, sometimes four. The reason you see so many seniors being nominated for the Hobey Baker is because the truly elite players leave early, almost always in their first two seasons.
As for a 17-year-old being better served playing against 22-year-olds...I guess in rare exceptions like Toews, that would be the case, but if Toews had decided to go to Tri Cities two or three seasons ago and developed into a WHL star (as was likely the case given his talent) he would have been a high pick this season as well. If he could be a dominant player in the "mighty" NCAA at 17 then he probably would have done the same in the WHL.
Fact is though, many 18-year-olds, and even more 17-year-olds are not often prime-time players on their college squads because of the maturity factor you speak about. It's not that many of the older players are any better, they're just more physically and mentally mature. It is indeed a gamble to go to a NCAA team in your draft eligible year because you may not get much exposure. Adam Pineault is but one example of this; that year in Boston College really stunted his growth after playing in tons of games on the international front and being highly regarded entering his draft year. If he'd have gone to the Q in his draft year who know where he gets picked in a less than stellar 2004 draft.
Look at the 2006 draft - only three of the top 60 picks were from the NCAA (Kessel, Toews, Mitera) - yet all three played in international tournaments over the past couple of years and had notable performances at those tournaments. Toews and Kessel were ranked 1-2 by many scouting services and experts such as Bob Mckenzie at the start of last season - they ended up being picked 3rd and fifth overall after playing in the NCAA. I'm not so certain it's the best option for a prospect in his draft year.
The fourth NCAA pick was Denis-Pepin, who was hurt most of the year in the rankings because he wasn't playing...do you not think he was starting to wonder if he shouldn't have stayed in Quebec? One of the reasons he still went in the top 65 was because he had a great performance in the Air Canada Cup the previous season.
If anything the scouts are spending more time at Canadian junior A, US high school and US junior leagues than they are at the NCAA level, looking for the kids who are getting lots of playing time and seeing how they perform. Let's not forget that there are lots of 20 and 21-year-olds playing in those leagues if you're looking for maturity, but 17-year-olds are more likely to get ice time in those leagues than at the NCAA level. Okposo was physically and productively dominant in his league, and that impressed the scouts moreso than Danis-Pepin sitting on the end of the Maine bench.