Prospect Info: Draft Thread | Oilers Select 4th Overall

[snipes]

Way, way, way off. Barrie for 5th straight up is FV

Yeah wasn't sure that's why I asked. I like Barrie's game

 

[GMofOilers]

Like Davidson, Marincin, reider?

No like Benn, Marchand, Subban, Josi, Brodie

 

[snipes]

Like Davidson, Marincin, reider?

Only one still with us in how many drafts? Davidson has been a phoenix from the ashes but it's been slim.

I'm high on Bear and Jones, we'll just have to wait and see on them though. Maybe Paigin comes over and becomes a steal

 

[snipes]

No like Benn, Marchand, Subban, Josi, Brodie

More what I meant.

 

[Raab]

looking at the Blue Bullet Report article on drafting defencemen suggests that d-man picked #1-2 (in average draft years) have a pretty good chance of being a top paring d-man.
however d-man picked #3-8 are 64% likely to be a top 4 d-man, although almost all won't achieve the level of a top pairing d-man

so, beware of expecting too much from a LD Chychrun, LD Juolevi, or RD Sergachev, and note that the first two are LD which Oilers already have a plethora of such prospects, and, a dearth of RD prospects

Two guys I can think of right off the top are Pietrangelo and Suter. Both picked between 3-8. This may be the last time we can pick a dman high, and we absolutely need to find a stud. IMO Sergachev could be one of the best offensive dmen in the NHL with his potential. Chychrun reminds me a lot of a guy like Seth Jones. We've never had a prospect like either of these guys in our system before and if one of these guys hits they're the type of dmen that don't get traded.

 

[Aequitas]

No like Benn, Marchand, Subban, Josi, Brodie

This is a joke. You can't expect mid round picks to become superstars. It's so incredibly rare. If you take the players the oilers have drafted with the % that play 200 nhl games (that is the line in the sand for a nhl player generally) the oilers have been average since about 2009. I guess you can say you expect above average results but I don't.

Other than top 10 picks any player that plays 200 games is considered a success. It doesn't matter position or how high on the depth chart. The averages iirc are near 1/5 of mid round picks playing 200 games. So if you have say 3 mid round picks per year (rounds 2-4) on average you should get 1-2 nhl player once every 2 years about. Sitting here saying Montreal got a superstar defenseman in the 2nd round makes them better at drafting is ridiculous. If scouts thought subban would win a Norris he would have been a top 3 pick. People need to lower their expectations of the draft after the 1st round.

 

[AvOiL]

Tappara (Patrik Laine's team) lost 4-0 in Game 1 of the Liiga Final today.

Karpat (Jesse Puljujarvi's team) won the third place consolation match 3-2. Puljujarvi had 1 goal and 1 assist.

 

[40oz]

Puljujärvi will play in the u18's for Finland if you're looking for a chance to see him play.

 

[Aequitas]

Only one still with us in how many drafts? Davidson has been a phoenix from the ashes but it's been slim.

I'm high on Bear and Jones, we'll just have to wait and see on them though. Maybe Paigin comes over and becomes a steal

Its not the scouts fault the oilers trade successful draft picks away. Davidson made the nhl 5 years after his draft year which is usually how long you should wait to determine if a draft pick is a bust or not. So this next year if 2011 picks aren't in the nhl they probably won't be. 2012-2015 are still undecided.

 

[HeavyHitter99]

Adam Fox is looking very good for team USA and solidifying my thoughts on him from my viewings during the season. Smallish dman with high end offensive ability that is supposed to go to Harvard but Kitchener has his rights.

Currently ranked 64th by central and would be a great late 2nd- early 3rd round pick.

 

[HeavyHitter99]

Its not the scouts fault the oilers trade successful draft picks away. Davidson made the nhl 5 years after his draft year which is usually how long you should wait to determine if a draft pick is a bust or not. So this next year if 2011 picks aren't in the nhl they probably won't be. 2012-2015 are still undecided.

It's the scouts and managements fault that they don't make better picks though. Drafting a 20 year old BCHL in the 3rd round who couldn't even dominate that league is just brutal and the last bunch of years so many of their picks have been off the board. This is coming from someone who scouts and has many friends in the scouting community. There's a reason all their scouts got fired.

People like to crap on the Musil pick but the fact is it that he was ranked for that area of the draft and yes I was one of those people who wanted Jenner instead but can't get completely mad at the pick. It's the off the board picks in the 2nd/3rd round that upset fans.

 

[Aequitas]

It's the scouts and managements fault that they don't make better picks though. Drafting a 20 year old BCHL in the 3rd round who couldn't even dominate that league is just brutal. The last bunch of years so many of their picks have been off the board. This is coming from someone who scouts and has many friends in the scouting community. There's a reason al their scouts got fired.

Read my other post. If you want to hold them to above average expectations that's on you but you are more likely to be dissapointed

Edit: they may have been fired for off the board picks that didn't turn out and that is management's decision but if you go by mathematical success they are average. Not great not terrible. Again it's on you to decide where your expectations are. I find it hilarious that people expect impact players/superstars on a consistent basis from mid round picks

 

[HeavyHitter99]

Read my other post. If you want to hold them to above average expectations that's on you but you are more likely to be dissapointed

Edit: they may have been fired for off the board picks that didn't turn out and that is management's decision but if you go by mathematical success they are average. Not great not terrible. Again it's on you to decide where your expectations are. I find it hilarious that people expect impact players/superstars on a consistent basis from mid round picks

Nobody said anything about consistently expecting superstars from mid rounds picks but I think most fans would like if they could get one every 10 or 20 years, that's the point that Poster was trying to make. If the Oilers could draft a top 6 forward in a middle round every 10 years then that would be a huge improvement.

I don't expect the Oilers to be the best drafting team but they would benefit from making the obvious choice sometimes and that's all I'm saying.

 

[McDNicks17]

Adam Fox is looking very good for team USA and solidifying my thoughts on him from my viewings during the season. Smallish dman with high end offensive ability that is supposed to go to Harvard but Kitchener has his rights.

Currently ranked 64th by central and would be a great late 2nd- early 3rd round pick.

The USNTDP has a good track record producing D prospects lately.

James Greenway seems like another interesting later round pick from that program.

 

[HeavyHitter99]

The USNTDP has a good track record producing D prospects lately.

James Greenway seems like another interesting later round pick from that program.

Greenway would be a decent 4th rounder in my opinion. I've liked his steady play all season but question his upside at times.

 

[Aequitas]

Nobody said anything about consistently expecting superstars from mid rounds picks but I think most fans would like if they could get one every 10 or 20 years, that's the point that Poster was trying to make. If the Oilers could draft a top 6 forward in a middle round every 10 years then that would be a huge improvement.

I don't expect the Oilers to be the best drafting team but they would benefit from making the obvious choice sometimes and that's all I'm saying.

Actually there was a post that listed subban Marchand Benn etc and he said that is what he meant. That was the post I was referring to originally and you took my final post out of context.

If you would like to them to get 1 every 10-20 years yet MacGregor was fired after 6 how is that fair. He still had 14 years to get one of these home runs. Also if you look at the oilers drafting they got enough of them in the 80s to keep pace with the nhl for decades. Averages don't just automatically work. If every 20 years you should get a superstar you could get one year 1 then not for 38 years until year 40 and still be average.

 

[HeavyHitter99]

Actually there was a post that listed subban Marchand Benn etc and he said that is what he meant. That was the post I was referring to originally and you took my final post out of context.

If you would like to them to get 1 every 10-20 years yet MacGregor was fired after 6 how is that fair. He still had 14 years to get one of these home runs. Also if you look at the oilers drafting they got enough of them in the 80s to keep pace with the nhl for decades. Averages don't just automatically work. If every 20 years you should get a superstar you could get one year 1 then not for 38 years until year 40 and still be average.

I'm missing the part when he said that we should be consistently drafting guys like that... Because he didn't say we should consistently getting players like that. You said "people expect impact players consistently with mid round picks"... Nobody said that.

10-20 years was just an example don't take it so literally. The Oilers as a whole haven't drafted any impact players past round 1 or maybe 2 in the last 10 years and all they want is to maybe get an occasional gem and that's something you aren't grasping.

I don't care how they did in the 80s anymore and if you have to bring up that time period to try and make a point then you've failed. Also no that's not what 1 in every 20 years would mean. It's means that if you draft a star in year 1 then you should have another within 20 years not 38 because that would be a completely stupid way of looking at things and I hope you realize that.

If you draft a impact 5th rounder in year 5 then it's 20 years from that point because that's how people will look at it and say, "The Oilers haven't drafted a quality 5th rounder since (player name) 20 years ago". They aren't going to say, "The Oilers haven't drafted a quality 5th rounder since (player name) 20 years ago but that's ok because that was only year 5 of a 20 year cycle so they still have 15 years left before the end of the next 20 year cycle." Sounds pretty stupid.

But I don't think we are honestly getting anywhere with this and you seem very happy with the Oilers drafting so I'm happy for you. For me personally I see room for improvement and I see potential for wiser draft picks but that's just me. We all have our opinion.

 

[vincent1999]

Two guys I can think of right off the top are Pietrangelo and Suter. Both picked between 3-8. This may be the last time we can pick a dman high, and we absolutely need to find a stud. IMO Sergachev could be one of the best offensive dmen in the NHL with his potential. Chychrun reminds me a lot of a guy like Seth Jones. We've never had a prospect like either of these guys in our system before and if one of these guys hits they're the type of dmen that don't get traded.

from Blue Bullet Report:

# of 1st round picks top two overall between 1998 and 2010: 3 (Doughty, Hedman, E. Johnson), and in the last 5 years: 2 (Ekblad, Ryan Murray). “One must remember when evaluating Ryan Murray that he was selected in the 2012 draft, which is one of the weakest drafts in the last 20 years.†… “a strong argument can be made that Ryan Murray is not a true 2nd overall selection and that his likelihood of success is closer to that of a Group 2 defenseman, which is selected between 3rd and 8th overall.â€

# of 1st round picks #3- 8 overall between 1998 and 2010: 18 (Bouwmeester, Bogosian, B. Stuart, Barker, Gudbranson, J. Johnson, Pietrangelo, Klesla, Hickey, Bryan Allen, Pitkanen, Alzner, Vishnevsky, Ekman-Larsson, Lars Jonsson, Suter, Coburn). “While a team is not guaranteed to select a top four defenseman, the odds are in that favour, as 61% of the defensemen have averaged over 20 minutes per game in their career.â€

 

[PBandJ]

I've been a vocal proponent of either trading the pick or praying to god it falls to five, but after seeing the abuse and bullying of Oiler fans on the mains, I want to win this year so badly. I want this forum to burn.

Hopefully Matthews is an Oiler and Chia makes some deals and we scorch everyone.

 

[vincent1999]

defenseman prospects

from Blue Bullet Report (cont.):

# of 1st round picks #3- 8 overall between 1998 and 2010: 18 (include L. Schenn)

# of 1st round picks #3- 8 overall last years: 13 (Larsson, G. Reinhart, Rielly, Lindholm, Dumba, D. Pouliot, S. Jones, Nurse, Ristolainen, H. Fleury, Hanifin, Provorov, Werenski

 

[snipes]

Chychrun playing tonight in the U18s

 

[Raab]

from Blue Bullet Report:

# of 1st round picks top two overall between 1998 and 2010: 3 (Doughty, Hedman, E. Johnson), and in the last 5 years: 2 (Ekblad, Ryan Murray). “One must remember when evaluating Ryan Murray that he was selected in the 2012 draft, which is one of the weakest drafts in the last 20 years.†… “a strong argument can be made that Ryan Murray is not a true 2nd overall selection and that his likelihood of success is closer to that of a Group 2 defenseman, which is selected between 3rd and 8th overall.â€

# of 1st round picks #3- 8 overall between 1998 and 2010: 18 (Bouwmeester, Bogosian, B. Stuart, Barker, Gudbranson, J. Johnson, Pietrangelo, Klesla, Hickey, Bryan Allen, Pitkanen, Alzner, Vishnevsky, Ekman-Larsson, Lars Jonsson, Suter, Coburn). “While a team is not guaranteed to select a top four defenseman, the odds are in that favour, as 61% of the defensemen have averaged over 20 minutes per game in their career.â€

Two of the guys on the 3-8 list should never be traded in Pietrangelo and OEL. Suter left as a UFA but is arguably a top 10 dman in the league. Bouwmeester, Alzner, Johnson, Coburn, Pitkanen all were/are considered top pairing guys in their prime. Hickey shouldn't even count because LA picked him way off the board. Thats not even including guys from recent drafts link Lindholm, Jones, Hanifin, Reilly, and Ristolainen.

IMO its worth taking the chance on a dman there because as BB stated theres at least a 64% chance they're top 4 when looking at the past. Of that 64% though theres close to 20% chance the guy is Franchise, or 45% chance they're top pairing dmen. To me its worth adding a guy like that to the fold, especially when they have the offensive upside of someone like Chychrun or Sergachev. For a team that wanted to be a run and gun style team the Oilers have been allergic to offensive dmen in the draft. Instead they always seem to go for two way dmen or defensive dmen.

My question to you is how good would this team look if we had the #3 pick from the 1991 draft? And do you think its worth taking a 20%(16.7 to be exact) to land a guy like that? Or do we say keep the status quo and keeping drafting useless wingers who have led us no where?

 

[GMofOilers]

This is a joke. You can't expect mid round picks to become superstars. It's so incredibly rare. If you take the players the oilers have drafted with the % that play 200 nhl games (that is the line in the sand for a nhl player generally) the oilers have been average since about 2009. I guess you can say you expect above average results but I don't.

Other than top 10 picks any player that plays 200 games is considered a success. It doesn't matter position or how high on the depth chart. The averages iirc are near 1/5 of mid round picks playing 200 games. So if you have say 3 mid round picks per year (rounds 2-4) on average you should get 1-2 nhl player once every 2 years about. Sitting here saying Montreal got a superstar defenseman in the 2nd round makes them better at drafting is ridiculous. If scouts thought subban would win a Norris he would have been a top 3 pick. People need to lower their expectations of the draft after the 1st round.

Your standards are way way way to low. Great teams draft good. Oilers have drafted so terrible its incredible.

I would bet most teams have a superstar drafted outside the first round. Look at Calgary Johnny, Brodie, Gio. Nashville, Weber, Josi

Should I keep going?

 

[Aerchon]

Your standards are way way way to low. Great teams draft good. Oilers have drafted so terrible its incredible.

I would bet most teams have a superstar drafted outside the first round. Look at Calgary Johnny, Brodie, Gio. Nashville, Weber, Josi

Should I keep going?

Those picks have as much skill in them as winning the lotto.

Pure luck. No one thought the players you mention would be as good as they ended being.

That's not to say the Oilers have not drafted terribly but the guys that are drafted deep and turn out stars are nothing but luck.

 

[Jumptheshark]

if the Fins follow with usual development of European players that were developed in Europe--we might not see them in the NHL next season. Also--have they done their military year yet? Fins take it very seriously.. with the fin hockey season being what it is--it is practical for them to stay one more year--play hockey and do their military time at the same time