GDT: Draft Position Thread.

[Lunatik]

Well, I think we all know we're falling faster than a love addict on molly.

I am still cheering for us to win, but I'm not expecting much after trading Tanev and Hanifin, and I am also hoping the teams behind us win because I understand there is value in picking higher.

After being curb stomped by the Avs tonight we have 17 games left and the 11th worst record in the league, or as you know the 11th overall pick going into the draft lottery.


____________________________________________________________________________________
I will update the following section as needed:

So this chart is kind of like a magic/tragic number chart except it shows how many wins/losses are needed to make it impossible for the Flames to catch/fall to them.

For teams ahead of us, a Flames loss, or a win for that specific team will lower the number by 0.5. For teams behind us, a Flames win, or a loss for that specific team will lower the number by 0.5.

Tie-breakers are not factored in.

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Click to read more...

 

[Mobiandi]

Watch us go like 5-3-1 in our last nine, just to get back into the 12 range where we're most comfortable.

Our remaining games are against the dregs of the league. Very real possibility that we go 7-1-1

 

[Anglesmith]

That was their second rebuild. Their first when they traded Smyth. The original "core" was supposed to be Nilsson, Gagner, Shremp, Paajarvi, Eberle or something like that.

Point though is that it's not rebuilding as a concept that's flawed, it's poor ownership with shoddy management that leads to perpetually rebuilding clubs. Rebuilding is part of the natural cycle of sports of peaks and valleys.

By the same token it isn't trying to remain competitive as a concept that is flawed, it's poor asset management that leads to perennial bubble teams.

And you're right about rebuilding being a natural part of the cycle. My understanding of the nature of this discussion is that it's about whether it is a situation that should be forced. Should the objective of a team that doesn't have its core in place always be to make the team as bad as possible? Or should it just be to manage assets and trust that talent will emerge over time?

 

[Some Other Flame]

By the same token it isn't trying to remain competitive as a concept that is flawed, it's poor asset management that leads to perennial bubble teams.

And you're right about rebuilding being a natural part of the cycle. My understanding of the nature of this discussion is that it's about whether it is a situation that should be forced. Should the objective of a team that doesn't have its core in place always be to make the team as bad as possible? Or should it just be to manage assets and trust that talent will emerge over time?

I mean, yeah sure in the absolute ideal sense.

The most often used example of not rebuilding used to be the Wings while they were in the midst of their 25 year playoff streak featuring multiple cup wins. But no one brings them up anymore because eventually even their wheels fell off - the introduction of the cap eliminating their financial advantage, talented executives (Nill, Yzerman, etc) leaving for more opportunity elsewhere, amateur scouts no longer finding franchise players with late round picks, and so on. Nothing lasts forever.

But to speak of mediocre, consider the quality and quantity of picks Treliving not only moved trying to rush the rebuild, but who he moved them for. The 2nd rounder he traded to the Blues for a stop gap in Brian Elliott become Jordan Kyrou. The 1st he moved for Hamonic became Dobson. A 1st for Hamilton when they could have taken Barzal. And it's the same or very similar story for all the various perpetually mediocre to outright bad teams like Senators, or Blue Jackets, or Sabres.

With regards to the Flames rebuilding now, I'd say any discussion over whether it's appropriate is irrelevant. The team literally forced management's hands - the mostly veteran roster was a bottom 10 team most of the season. And despite repeated attempts by Conroy, the UFA's wouldn't re-sign. At that point, basic common has to kick in and thankfully it did.

And the idea of being as bad as possible is dumb and I've said as much several times. It's one thing to purposely lose games for a generational talent like Bedard or Crosby or Lemieux; that at least make sense on multiple levels - not only do those guys almost always win multiple cups, but they're an absolute slam dunk financially. Look the millions in season ticket sales and jersey's sold the Hawks generated hours after it was revealed they were getting the 1st overall pick last year. But when you strip it all down and don't land that generational player and you're run by hopelessly inept ownership/management, then you end up as as the Sabres under Pegula or the Oilers pre McDavid.

But that being said, there's practical realities that can't be ignored. In a sport where nothing is guaranteed, it's simply about playing the percentages. Like the simple and undeniable fact that there's a better chance of landing a franchise talent with a top 10 pick than a mid rounder.

Honestly, the Flames need to look to the Canucks for what to emulate, while hopefully learning from their many, many mistakes. They started their rebuild in 2013, picking 9th, 6th, 23rd, 5th, 5th, 7th, and 10th in a 7 year span. Never fully bottomed out or got the lottery luck but they made it work. Horvat's no longer with the team, but was at least flipped for another key piece in Hronek. Virtanen and Juolevi busted but Boeser's a solid supporting player while Pettersson, and Hughes are their franchise. And then supplemented that with a good trade for JT Miller and a good draft find in Demko.

The Flames don't need to trade away all the still useful vets in order to rebuild and anyone claiming so is being a disingenuous twat. All they have to do is not rush things by throwing away picks for quick fixes or wasting precious cap space on post-apex vets just because they can. Because when it comes down to "managing assets" of which cap space and draft picks are two of the most valuable, that's just about the worst way of going about it.

 

[Ace Rimmer]

I still like Yakemchuk, Lindstrom, Iggy jr or Helenius if we don't move up.
Catton & Demidov I doubt drop to our pick.

Demidov maybe drops a spot or two because Russian, but really doubt he'd fall as far as the Flames' (current) pick.

It would be nice tho

 

[Anglesmith]

I mean, yeah sure in the absolute ideal sense.

The most often used example of not rebuilding used to be the Wings while they were in the midst of their 25 year playoff streak featuring multiple cup wins. But no one brings them up anymore because eventually even their wheels fell off - the introduction of the cap eliminating their financial advantage, talented executives (Nill, Yzerman, etc) leaving for more opportunity elsewhere, amateur scouts no longer finding franchise players with late round picks, and so on. Nothing lasts forever.

But to speak of mediocre, consider the quality and quantity of picks Treliving not only moved trying to rush the rebuild, but who he moved them for. The 2nd rounder he traded to the Blues for a stop gap in Brian Elliott become Jordan Kyrou. The 1st he moved for Hamonic became Dobson. A 1st for Hamilton when they could have taken Barzal. And it's the same or very similar story for all the various perpetually mediocre to outright bad teams like Senators, or Blue Jackets, or Sabres.

With regards to the Flames rebuilding now, I'd say any discussion over whether it's appropriate is irrelevant. The team literally forced management's hands - the mostly veteran roster was a bottom 10 team most of the season. And despite repeated attempts by Conroy, the UFA's wouldn't re-sign. At that point, basic common has to kick in and thankfully it did.

And the idea of being as bad as possible is dumb and I've said as much several times. It's one thing to purposely lose games for a generational talent like Bedard or Crosby or Lemieux; that at least make sense on multiple levels - not only do those guys almost always win multiple cups, but they're an absolute slam dunk financially. Look the millions in season ticket sales and jersey's sold the Hawks generated hours after it was revealed they were getting the 1st overall pick last year. But when you strip it all down and don't land that generational player and you're run by hopelessly inept ownership/management, then you end up as as the Sabres under Pegula or the Oilers pre McDavid.

But that being said, there's practical realities that can't be ignored. In a sport where nothing is guaranteed, it's simply about playing the percentages. Like the simple and undeniable fact that there's a better chance of landing a franchise talent with a top 10 pick than a mid rounder.

Honestly, the Flames need to look to the Canucks for what to emulate, while hopefully learning from their many, many mistakes. They started their rebuild in 2013, picking 9th, 6th, 23rd, 5th, 5th, 7th, and 10th in a 7 year span. Never fully bottomed out or got the lottery luck but they made it work. Horvat's no longer with the team, but was at least flipped for another key piece in Hronek. Virtanen and Juolevi busted but Boeser's a solid supporting player while Pettersson, and Hughes are their franchise. And then supplemented that with a good trade for JT Miller and a good draft find in Demko.

The Flames don't need to trade away all the still useful vets in order to rebuild and anyone claiming so is being a disingenuous twat. All they have to do is not rush things by throwing away picks for quick fixes or wasting precious cap space on post-apex vets just because they can. Because when it comes down to "managing assets" of which cap space and draft picks are two of the most valuable, that's just about the worst way of going about it.

I feel like it's more that Vancouver emulated what the Flames did in their rebuild, but the ponies they backed seem to be better and they haven't ended up with their two best players demanding out (although it looked like they were heading that way at one point).

When the Flames felt like they could afford to spend a first to augment the core, they went out and got Hamilton, then doubled down later with Hamonic. The Canucks, on the other hand, got Miller. Both teams busted on a highly touted prospect defenceman, but the Flames also busted on their highest pick and additionally had one of their successful high picks absolutely fall apart physically.

The Canucks did their rebuild just a few years after the Flames and even the verbiage was similar.

It remains to be seen if their rebuild is actually better. This season has been similar to the Flames' season a couple years ago.

 

[Volica]

Our remaining games are against the dregs of the league. Very real possibility that we go 7-1-1

You and I both didn't factor in Calgary plays down to everyone.
There's a chance we go 0-9-0 here baby.

 

[InfinityIggy]

Could see Ottawa and Montreal passing us but that's about it. I suppose we play teams like the Yotes so those are technically "4 point games". I suppose if we lose those we have a chance to sneak a little lower.

 

[User1996]

4-10 since the Tanev trade. Pretty good pace to at least stay at 8th spot, if not get a bit higher of a pick.

 

[Lunatik]

After tonight's games

 

[Lunatik]

Remaining Schedules...

DATE​	​	​	​	​	​	​
​	7 Games Left​	7 Games Left​	7 Games Left​	7 Games Left​	6 Games Left​	6 Games Left​
APR 5​	​	​	​	Kraken Win​	​	Sabres Win​
APR 6​	Habs Lose​	Sens Lose​	Flames Lose​	​	Devils Win​	​
APR 7​	Habs Lose​	Sens Win​	​	​	Devils Lose OT​	Sabres Lose​
APR 8​	​	​	​	​	​	​
APR 9​	vs ​	at ​	at ​	vs ​	vs ​	at ​
APR 10​	​	​	​	​	​	​
APR 11​	at ​	at ​	at ​	vs ​	at ​	vs ​
APR 12​	​	​	at ​	​	​	​
APR 13​	at ​	vs ​	​	at ​	at ​	at ​
APR 14​	​	​	vs ​	at ​	​	​
APR 15​	at​	at ​	​	​	vs ​	at ​
APR 16​	vs ​	at ​	at ​	at ​	​	​
APR 17​	​	​	​	​	​	​
APR 18​	​	​	vs ​	at ​	​	​

 

[Lunatik]

Buffalo and Seattle both won Friday. They're both now sitting at 91 points with 5 (BUF) and 6 (SEA) games remaining.

 

[User1996]

Arizona has SJ tonight - a win puts them just two points back of the Flames (albeit with a game in hand).

Although unlikely with our remaining schedule, it would be nice for at least one of Arizona, Montreal, or Ottawa to catch up.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

I want to see the nucks keep losing. Get that second first up to 23ish.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

Looks like 9th is about as low as we will pick. Should get one of these players.

1. Celebrini (true #1C-Mackinnon type talent)
2. Demidov (hold onto your butts type skill)

D
Levshunov (highly skilled, big, rough around the edges)
Yakemchuk (adventure in his own zone, but he could be a top 5 skilled defensman in the league. His skating, size and skill is ridiculous)
Dickinson (steady eddy, shut down D. Our fan base will probably hate him because we’re delusional but he plays against the best, 25 min a night and still chips in 40ish points a year. Much like a Hanifin)
Silayev (we definitely need a skilled D that can shutdown the other teams best. Extremely rare to see a guy his size who can skate and is physical. Could be Chara so we will have to do our homework on him)

Forward
Lindstrom (big C with hands and skating)
Iginla (I think he projects as a top line winger. So smart. Such good skill. I keep getting Matt Tkachuk vibes.)
Catton (skilled forward but I don’t know if he has the pace or physicality to play C at the NHL level but maybe he can be the next Point.)
Helenius (people are raving about him but I just don’t love him, if he’s the next Aho then sure. Mostly biased against him because I didn’t see a true star at the WJC).
Eiserman (might be getting over scouted. Probably one of the easiest picks in the draft but I find you can get scoring wingers in the mid first most years. He’d help the PP but this team needs to swing at Cs and D. Could score 35-40 regularly)

Buium and Parekh, I just don’t see how we can pick those guys unless they project as 1D.

 

[IharRB]

Looks like 9th is about as low as we will pick. Should get one of these players.

1. Celebrini (true #1C-Mackinnon type talent)
2. Demidov (hold onto your butts type skill)

D
Levshunov (highly skilled, big, rough around the edges)
Yakemchuk (adventure in his own zone, but he could be a top 5 skilled defensman in the league. His skating, size and skill is ridiculous)
Dickinson (steady eddy, shut down D. Our fan base will probably hate him because we’re delusional but he plays against the best, 25 min a night and still chips in 40ish points a year. Much like a Hanifin)
Silayev (we definitely need a skilled D that can shutdown the other teams best. Extremely rare to see a guy his size who can skate and is physical. Could be Chara so we will have to do our homework on him)

Forward
Lindstrom (big C with hands and skating)
Iginla (I think he projects as a top line winger. So smart. Such good skill. I keep getting Matt Tkachuk vibes.)
Catton (skilled forward but I don’t know if he has the pace or physicality to play C at the NHL level but maybe he can be the next Point.)
Helenius (people are raving about him but I just don’t love him, if he’s the next Aho then sure. Mostly biased against him because I didn’t see a true star at the WJC).
Eiserman (might be getting over scouted. Probably one of the easiest picks in the draft but I find you can get scoring wingers in the mid first most years. He’d help the PP but this team needs to swing at Cs and D. Could score 35-40 regularly)

Buium and Parekh, I just don’t see how we can pick those guys unless they project as 1D.

I like.
However, I would not put Yakemchuk in the top five

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

I like.
However, I would not put Yakemchuk in the top five

I don’t really have them ranked. Those are more teirs.

I see Celebrini alone. Then Demidov in another tier. Than the rest of those players as all very similar. I’d probably have Dickinson 1, Levshunov 2, and Yak 3 among D.

 

[IharRB]

I don’t really have them ranked. Those are more teirs.

I see Celebrini alone. Then Demidov in another tier. Than the rest of those players as all very similar. I’d probably have Dickinson 1, Levshunov 2, and Yak 3 among D.

Dickinson is the guy who is able to adapt to the NHL faster than other defensemen. However, I see Levshunov’s potential a little higher, but he has a lot of work to do. Yakemchuk reminds me more of a powerforward than a defender

 

[JPeeper]

Fairly decent OOT today, Ottawa and Arizona won while Montreal lost.

Ottawa can pass us with 1 more win, Arizona needs 1 win + beat us in the head to head and they'd also pass us. Montreal ain't winning another game this year, they suck.

 

[Lunatik]

Remaining Schedules... updated

DATE​	​	​	​	​	​	​
​	7 Games Left​	7 Games Left​	7 Games Left​	7 Games Left​	6 Games Left​	6 Games Left​
APR 5​	​	​	​	Kraken Win​	​	Sabres Win​
APR 6​	Habs Lose​	Sens Lose​	Flames Lose​	​	Devils Win​	​
APR 7​	Habs Lose​	Sens Win​	​	​	Devils Lose OT​	Sabres Lose​
APR 8​	​	​	​	​	​	​
APR 9​	vs ​	at ​	at ​	vs ​	vs ​	at ​
APR 10​	​	​	​	​	​	​
APR 11​	at ​	at ​	at ​	vs ​	at ​	vs ​
APR 12​	​	​	at ​	​	​	​
APR 13​	at ​	vs ​	​	at ​	at ​	at ​
APR 14​	​	​	vs ​	at ​	​	​
APR 15​	at​	at ​	​	​	vs ​	at ​
APR 16​	vs ​	at ​	at ​	at ​	​	​
APR 17​	​	​	​	​	​	​
APR 18​	​	​	vs ​	at ​	​	​

 

[Lunatik]

 

[Flames Fanatic]

Gonna be a spicy ride to the end for us. Arizona beating us would be extra interesting. I hope Ottawa and Montreal win a few meaningless games.

 

[IharRB]

Artyom Levshunov 2024 NHL Draft Profile - The Win Column

2024 NHL Draft profile for top prospect Ivan Demidov, a top defender available in this year's draft class based on his progression.

thewincolumn.ca

 

[Lunatik]

Gonna be a spicy ride to the end for us. Arizona beating us would be extra interesting. I hope Ottawa and Montreal win a few meaningless games.

Never gonna stop cheering for the Sens huh

 

[Qubax]

Conroy on After Hours almost sounded like he was open to a tank for the remainder of the season.

I mean he has to be very politically correct and careful what he says, but if you listen to it and ready between the lines.

I think we only have about 40-50% chance of Tij being there at 8, but if we can get to pick 7 or 6 I'd feel a lot better about it.

If we stop getting points almost altogether we could get passed by Mon, Ott and Arz and would get us to 5.

 

[Flames Fanatic]

Never gonna stop cheering for the Sens huh

It's a bitter relationship, with a bit of stockholm and stubborness to keep things fresh.