GDT: Draft lottery thread

[Bondurant]

I was just looking at old drafts out of curiosity for what happens at 4.

2013 NHL Draft Prospect Rankings
Based on this, every year from 13-19, someone "dropped" to 4. For most years this was because the #3 was not unanimous. For '13, the top 3 unanimously included Seth Jones who dropped to 4. In '16, the top 3 unanimously included Puljujarvi who dropped to 4.

I'm not looking earlier than '13 because this site doesn't seem to show the various rankings for earlier years.

So based on historical precedent (only 7-yr history so far from perfect), Byfield or Stuetzle will fall to 4.

I'm not trying to blow anyone's minds here, just found it mildly interesting.

Pick 4 in '83 turned out okay.

 

[funky]

What is Detroit’s draft philosophy or is it known. In LA Blake and Yanetti both states they will take the best player available.

As a Kings fans I spent a lot of time looking at drafting at 4. It made a ton of sense for us to look hard at a Drysdale at that spot.

Detroit made a wicked pick last year in Seider which some considered a bit off the board. Turned out to be a very nice addition. Could Detroit be a team that snags Askarov? Drysdale would be a nice add but you guys seem to have a plethora of right shot young defensemen. NHL radio thinks Perfetti may be your guy? I know Stutzle falling would be ideal but I don’t see that happening.

is there a prospect or pick that you fans want to see if the draft goes as suspected and Lafreniere, Byfield and Stützle are off the board.

I know what it’s like to be a fan of a team screwed by the draft. Last year we fell 2 to 5 and our dreams of Kakko or Byram were crushed. We ended up with a great piece in Turcotte who will be healthy this year. With your management I am sure you guys will also land a great piece for your rebuild.

 

[Henkka]

I was just looking at old drafts out of curiosity for what happens at 4.

2013 NHL Draft Prospect Rankings
Based on this, every year from 13-19, someone "dropped" to 4. For most years this was because the #3 was not unanimous. For '13, the top 3 unanimously included Seth Jones who dropped to 4. In '16, the top 3 unanimously included Puljujarvi who dropped to 4.

I'm not looking earlier than '13 because this site doesn't seem to show the various rankings for earlier years.

So based on historical precedent (only 7-yr history so far from perfect), Byfield or Stuetzle will fall to 4.

I'm not trying to blow anyone's minds here, just found it mildly interesting.

What I remember of these:

2019:
1. C Jack Hughes
2. RW Kaapo Kakko
3. C Kirby Dach (raised from 6th)
4. LD Bowen Byram
Turcotte dropped from consensus 3rd to 5th
Newhook dropped from consensus 5th to 16th

2018:
1. LD Rasmus Dahlin
2. RW Andrei Svechnikov
3. C Jesperi Kotkaniemi (raised to 3rd from ~10th)
4. LW Brady Tkachuk
5. C Barret Hayton (raised to 5th from ~15th)
6. RW Filip Zadina (dropped from 3rd)
7. LD Quinn Hughes (dropped from 6th)
8. RD Adam Boqvist (dropped from 5th)
9. W Vitali Kravtsov
10. RD Evan Bouchard (dropped from 5th)

2017:

1. C Nico Hischier
2. C Nolan Patrick
3. LD Miro Heiskanen (raised from 4th)
4. RD Cale Makar (raised from 5th)
5. C Elias Pettersson (raised from 9th to 5th)

Gabriel Vilardi dropped from 3rd to 11th, because of injuries.

2016:
1. C Auston Matthews
2. LW Patrik Laine
3. C/LW Pierre-Luc Dubois (raised from consensus 4th)
4. RW Jesse Puljujärvi (dropped from consensus 3rd)
5. LD Olli Juolevi (has struggled with injuries)

This is interesting draft, versus this becoming 2020 draft. Columbus saw that Center potential in Dubois (even though he was playing as a winger at juniors, but succeeds now as NHL center), and Puljujärvi was natural winger. That was pretty much the season why did Puljujärvi drop, then the worst possible developmental environment happened and started his negative spiral.

2015:
1. C Connor McDavid
2. C Jack Eichel
3. Dylan Strome (raised from consensus 4th to 3rd)
4. RW Mitchell Marner (raised from consensus 5th to 4th)
5. LD Noah Hanifin (dropped from consensus 3rd to 5th)

When watching some old data, Strome and Marner were very equal on production. Getting a center was as right pick as anyone. Strome has a little bit busted, but I don't know was that anyhow obvious or easy to see at draft time. That's also damn strong draft, last 2-season Strome is ahead of Mantha production pace at same age. Hanifin dropping has seemed justified.

2014:
1. RD Aaron Ekblad
2. C Sam Reinhart (raised from 3rd to 2nd)
3. C Leon Draisaitl (raised from 4th to 3rd)
4. C Sam Bennett (dropped from 2nd to 4th)
5. LW Michael Dal Colle (raised to 5th)
Remember also LD Hayden Fleury being consensus 5th and dropping to 7th.
Larkin going as low as 15th after all those wingers is very weird.
Both Reinhart and Bennett have busted their center positions and will be career wingers.

2013:

1. C Nathan MacKinnon (raised from 2nd or was already consensus 1st)
2. C Alexander Barkov (raised from 4th)
3. LW Jonathan Drouin
4. RD Seth Jones (dropped from 1st or 2nd)

This could have been that MacKinnon was past Jones earlier, on many final draft lists. Don't remember clearly. Barkov was all the time behind Drouin, but again, natural center, skilled and most defensively responsible prospect ever passed a winger. Very odd that Drouin was picked before Jones.

2012 - The Crazy Draft
1. RW Nail Yakupov (raised from 2nd ?)
2. LD Ryan Murray (raised from 3rd)
3. C/LW Alex Galchenyuk (dropped from 1st-2nd ?)
4. LD Griffin Reinhart
5. LD Morgan Rielly
6. LD Hampus Lindholm (raise from 25th ?)

I'll remember this being Yakupov vs. Galchenyuk fight all the time. And thought personally that Galchenyuk with center potential would go 1st.

Then started this defencemen random lottery. Hampus Lindholm was said the to be biggest and stupidest reach ever at 6th, now he seems like the best of the class vs. Rielly. Very Seider-like wibes, I think. Both 6th overall reaches.

Best career forward taken seems to be Filip Forsberg at 11th. Best Center seems to be #17 overall Tomas Hertl, who did a positional change not until 2 seasons ago, as 26-year old.

2011 - Another Crazy draft where 6-7-8-9 picked be 1-2-3-4 and everybody agrees.
1. C Ryan-Nugent Hopkins
2. LW Gabriel Landeskog
3. LW Jonathan Huberdeau
4. RD Adam Larsson (was kept consensus 2nd at some point if I remember right)
5. C Ryan Strome
------------------ don't remember what the all consensus was, but this is superb group next
6. C Mika Zibanejad
7. C Mark Scheifele
8. C Sean Couturier
9. RD Dougie Hamilton
-----------------------one good example of how much important these guys have become, thanks to their position. Landeskog and Huberdeau are nice natural wingers, but I wouldn't take either before Zibanejad and Scheifele to my team.
10. LD Jonas Brodin

Things can go many ways.

But don't expect Byfield dropping versus Stutzle. More proable would be Byfield being taken before Lafreniere. Don't expect that to happen, but it has been the latest trend. Natural centers will rise, if anyone. Wingers will fall, and more of, nobody reaches for a winger.

 

[Mlotek]

Yzerman did tank, but not this bad. Combine his nonchalant 2019 offseason with the variables below and you get one of the worst teams assembled in the cap era.

We didn't have our best goal scorer for 1/3 of the season due to injury
DeKeyser is arguably the best defender on the team and he played 8 games
You already mentioned Howard's implosion
Bernier was also terrible for the first couple of months of the season, and then he played great down the stretch
Nielsen took a huge step back as well, which is saying a lot considering his previous seasons here.

Don't forget Daley literally forgot how to play D. Or gave up. Kinda hard to tell at this point.

 

[Marky9er]

NHL players don't "have to" play, they can opt out penalty free. How's about if a player opts out their team loses it's chance at 1OA, because I can't watch this shit show no more!

No play, no Lafreniere.