draft lottery proposal by Gary B

[Chaos]

If that was his choice I would support him 100%.

Freedom of choice .. Can't beat it ...

Here everyone is fighting over him and local Canadian papers are already saying that he may not go to a team that drafts him if it is not his choice and force that team to trade his rights or he may sit out two seasons play in the AHL and then become an UFA ... You can lead horse water but you can't make him drink as the saying goes ..

So you essentially want Crosby to be able to dictate where he goes. Thats just a big bag of ********. He's just like every other NHL player who enters the draft. You go where you are picked.

 

[ResidentAlien*]

But the New York sports market has fundamentally changed since 1994. There is now year round frenzy for the Yanks (and to a lesser extent he Mets) - there is no longer an MLB offseason. New York has become an oversaturated sports market. Even if the Rangers did miraculously become good again, they would still rank behind: Yankees, Yankees, Yankees, Mets, Knicks, Giants, Jets, and Yankees, Yankees, Yankees. And god help them if the Knicks ever get good again and when the Nets move to Brooklyn.

No. New York is about the worst place for the league for Crosby could end up. A major US city, yes - NYC - no. Crosby in Chicago, LA, Philly, Boston, Atlanta, Detroit, hell even San Jose, would be better for the league than NYC.

Now that makes sense, and i wasnt trying to say NYC or nowhere, but a major US hockey market rather then a small one. Anyone of those teams you mentioned would be better then one of the poor kids sister teams

 

[Mess]

Alright smart guy, here we go. You tell me the Leafs won't be gutted.

Under contract for 2005-06:

Mats Sundin $9,000,000
Owen Nolan $7,404,009
Ed Belfour $6,000,000 (+ at least 1/3 of his $2MM signing bonus)
Bryan McCabe $4,550,000
Tomas Kaverle $3,000,000
Ken Klee $2,500,000
Darcy Tucker $2,100,000
Matt Stajan $1,060,000
TOTAL = $35,614,009

That's 8 players. Count 'em, eight. Already at $35.6 million, which is MORE than the NHL's last salary cap proposal already. You need to fill 23 roster spots, so 15 more to go.

RFA's: Mostly fill-ins, Berg, Antropov, Belak, Kilger, Pilar, Perrott made a combined $5.5 million in 04-05.

UFA's: Leetch, Mogilny, Roberts, Nieuwendyk, Domi were under contract for a combined $21 million for 2005-06.

You seem to be smarter than me, how do they fit the $35.6 million already committed plus about $5.5 million on RFA's and approx $21 million on their UFA's under a $35 million salary cap? Even a $40 million salary cap? Completely impossible. Even if you factor in a 24% rollback, which may not happen.

This means the Leafs are gonna lose a lot more than 2 or 3 players. The Leafs are about to be gutted.

In fact the leafs might even have to do more of its own gutting .. After losing all those UFA they might also need to set Nolan lose (buy him out ) and use that money to pay the RFA their money ..

Still leaves them 15 players .. Still need to find more ways to gut the team to make room for 7 more to get to the 22 man roster .. That will likly include the cheapest possible players and promote , Colaiacovo, Tellqvist, Steen, Ponikarovsky, Wellwood, Wilm ..

Even that still puts them 2-5 mil over the last NHL offer ..

If your team BEST CASE SCENARIO is letting Roberts, Nieuwendyk, Mogilny, Leetch, Nolan, Domi along with the already departed Renberg, Reichel, Francis, and filling them all with AHL players ... is not considered gutting then what is ??

Zero chance at any UFA on the Market as a result of the Cap ..

Now you have a team like Washington for example with very few players under contract and lots of Cap room .. Give them Crosby and Ovechkin and then let them go and sign the Prongers and Kovalev and Palffy's of the world ..

 

[codswallop]

Absolutely correct!
Look, Crosby is either going to do great things for an already strong market or potentially save a fledgling market. Either way, he's just going to do great things for whatever market he lands in.

It's up to the NHL and hockey in general to lift this kid to greater and greater things from a league-wide standpoint. I don't think the NHL is going to go out of its way to place him in a specific market. They should simply be happy that Crosby will definitely help one of its 30 markets much in the same way Mario saved Pittsburgh.

I think the league would be inviting a firestorm if there was even a hint that they were trying to place him in a specific market. With all their current troubles and the backlash that will inevitably come when and if a new CBA is signed, the last thing they need is to purposely create another problem. I agree they won't go out of their way to do so.

Not surprised that my original thought went relatively unnoticed. Guess it didn't have enough outrage or biased rambling in it. That's what I get for trying to speak rationally about a subject

 

[DARKSIDE]

Seriously, not using cap space or purghing of a team, only using the team's current roster and prospect rating. The team that should have the first pick wouldn't be the Rangers, Pittsburgh, Toronto or the Devils...It would be the:
Carolina Hurricanes.

 

[AM]

well....

If I have to run around explaining the humour intent of my post then what good would that do ??

I figured the simple man simple plan thing was a dead give away at a shot at Bettman.

But for the life of me I never realized so many people would take me seriously here on this when they seem to want to disregard everything else I so eloquently say otherwise ..

On the other hand how many posters do you believe have already typed up their suggestions and hit send ??

its not like your reasoning has been crystal clear at the best of times!

(well at least when you're in the NHLPA corner)

 

[CGG]

Can you keep everyone? Unlikely. But Gutted as some claim? Not even close. The teams who were stanley cup contenders 2003-4 will be so still, the new CBA is not going to have a huge effect on that. It will however mean that when age does catch up with these teams in a couple of years they can not simply buy and reload, and yes eventually all will have rebuilding years. But to claim that it will be some dramatic cataclysm next year is disengenuous at best, usually (wrongly as I have shown above) used to justify a grab for Crosby in threads like this.

Toronto was hanging by a thread as is. Cut a few guys and deplete the already thin supporting cast and they had a recipe for disaster, IMO. Especially since two of the highest paid and completely untradable players are seriously injury prone (Belfour and Nolan). So Eddie gets hurt, Tellqvist falters, Leafs have zero secondary scoring at all because they couldn't afford Roberts and Niewy, Leafs trade Sundin for prospects, etc etc. They could have ended up with a lottery pick for 2005. Likely to happen? No. Definitely possible? Absolutely.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not arguing the Leafs should get Crosby, but they should get a shot at him, just like every other team.

To determine only a bottom few teams should have a chance at Crosby is to say that you can predict how 2004-05 would have panned out had they played, and you simply can't do that. As unlikely as it seems, Detroit could have finished 27th overall and won the draft lottery, you just don't know.

Conversely, bottom feeders wouldn't necessarily have finished last either. There's no way Atlanta would have been far out of the playoffs with their talent. Columbus would have (most likely) been vastly improved. Again, we don't know for certain, so how can we give one of them Crosby?

Your luck can change just that quickly:

Boston 1995-96: 91 pts
Boston 1996-97: 61 pts (#1 pick Joe Thornton)

Carolina 2001-02: 91 pts (Stanley Cup finalist)
Carolina 2002-03: 61 pts (#2 pick Eric Staal)

San Jose 2002-03: 73 pts (#6 pick)
San Jose 2003-04: 104 pts, 3rd overall in the leage

Quebec 1991-92: 52 pts
Quebec 1992-93: 104 pts, 3rd overall in the league

What if 92-93 was wiped out because of a lockout? Quebec sucked for so many years before that, they would have been the obvious 1st choice for the #1 pick at the 1993 draft.

 

[NYIsles1*]

You just aren't getting it. You really just aren't. You think that's an accident? You think that's because the Yankees are sooooo good? No, it's because the Rangers suck. NO ONE IS DENYING THAT THERE ISN'T GREAT HOCKEY COVERAGE IN NYC TODAY. What you don't seem to understand is that can change. And all it takes in the Rangers success.

Disagree. Your going to find out what the Devils found out. It's a limited hockey market. You act as if the Rangers went into the last seven years expecting to be a lottery team. Many years they went in with high expectations, marquee stars and could not generate attention when the season began. And your correct, it was 2001 the Rangers were in first, nine games over five-hundred with the same attention they received in March 2004.

Because except for the obligatory coverage, NY media doesn't give a rat's ass about the Islanders..

They have four beat writers and the exact same obligatory coverage the Rangers receive in the city media each game day.

Oh, and the Garden in the playoffs in April? Somehow, I believe that it will knock the Yankees-Mets or Yankees-Sox off the back pages. Why do I believe that? BECAUSE IT HAPPENED WITH THE KNICKS LAST SEASON.

The Rangers are not in the same media universe as the Knicks. Even the Nets get the back pages in Manhattan. You cannot compare basketball with hockey.

 

[not quite yoda]

5 bucks says the Blues get Crosby. I don't care for the Blues. I just think that's what'll happen. Wealthy team, successfull recently, fans that don't particularly deserve him (not anymore than any other fans at least), not a big media market. It'll happen.

 

[Tawnos]

First year after Messier left? The Rangers had good coverage then. In fact, the Rangers have had good coverage in NY at the beginning of the season every year. There were daily articles in the sports section everyday during training camp in 2003. Obviously not enough to push past the Yankees... but then again, the Yanks are in or nearing the playoffs at that point. The beginning of a long season shouldn't supplant the end of another sport's long season. The coverage has cooled off at different points depending on their success or lack thereof, often by November. I can't speak of 2001's coverage when they were in first into December because I was living in Boston at the time.

The Rangers are not in the same media universe as the Knicks? I can't believe someone in the city can even say that. The Knicks and Rangers have both been ignored equally by the NY media for years.

EDIT: I was just looking in the local archives for the Journal News, which is the biggest paper in Westchester county. There's at least one Rangers article in there EVERY SINGLE DAY in December 2001. Gee, that sounds like EXACTLY the coverage the Yankees and Mets get in the same paper right now. HMMMMM.

 

[DARKSIDE]

Disagree. Your going to find out what the Devils found out. It's a limited hockey market. You act as if the Rangers went into the last seven years expecting to be a lottery team. Many years they went in with high expectations, marquee stars and could not generate attention when the season began. And your correct, it was 2001 the Rangers were in first, nine games over five-hundred with the same attention they received in March 2004.


They have four beat writers and the exact same obligatory coverage the Rangers receive in the city media each game day.


The Rangers are not in the same media universe as the Knicks. Even the Nets get the back pages in Manhattan. You cannot
compare basketball with hockey.

So, if that's the case, why don't the Islanders considering moving. Really, not trying to be sarcastic, but maybe it would be better for them to leave Long Island.

 

[WC Handy*]

5 bucks says the Blues get Crosby. I don't care for the Blues. I just think that's what'll happen. Wealthy team, successfull recently, fans that don't particularly deserve him (not anymore than any other fans at least), not a big media market. It'll happen.

What fans do deserve him more than any other?

 

[PecaFan]

Just horrible systems being talked about here. If they end up going with anything close to what's being proposed, its' going to be a frickin' disaster. The odds are way too close, and it's almost guaranteed that some great team is going to end up with the first pick.

There are about 15 teams that deserve *zero* shot at the #1 pick. Cup winners like Tampa, Detroit, Colorado, New Jersey, top teams like Ottawa, Philly, my own Canucks, etc.

Yes, we don't know how the standings would have turned out last year. But there's no way in hell any of those teams would have been worst in the league. Here are the last few 30th overall teams, and where they were the previous season:

'04 - Pittsburgh. Previously 29th
'03 - Carolina. 16th
'02 - Atlanta. 28th
'01 - Islanders. 26th

The closest was Carolina, but they were still a bottom half team. Frankly, only these teams should have a shot at the #1 pick:

Nashville Predators
Edmonton Oilers
Buffalo Sabres
Minnesota Wild
Los-Angeles Kings
Atlanta Thrashers
Anaheim Mighty Ducks
Carolina Hurricanes
Florida Panthers
New-York Rangers
Phoenix Coyotes
Columbus Bluejackets
Washington Capitals
Chicago Blackhawks
Pittsburgh Penguins

The league essentially has two possible outcomes here. They either give the pick to a team that was previously bad, or a team that was previously good. Since the whole point of the draft is to give high picks to bad teams, in what possible way can you justify giving it to a good team, that didn't have even a single season of bad play?

"Well, OK, sure they won the Cup and made the playoffs in the three years preceding the lockout, have one of the highest payrolls in the league, and have won the Cup again since the lockout, and haven't missed the playoffs for 10 years, but gosh golly gee, we really think that in that one year, they would have been the worst team in the league".

 

[Jaded-Fan]

Toronto was hanging by a thread as is. Cut a few guys and deplete the already thin supporting cast and they had a recipe for disaster, IMO. Especially since two of the highest paid and completely untradable players are seriously injury prone (Belfour and Nolan). So Eddie gets hurt, Tellqvist falters, Leafs have zero secondary scoring at all because they couldn't afford Roberts and Niewy, Leafs trade Sundin for prospects, etc etc. They could have ended up with a lottery pick for 2005. Likely to happen? No. Definitely possible? Absolutely.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not arguing the Leafs should get Crosby, but they should get a shot at him, just like every other team.

To determine only a bottom few teams should have a chance at Crosby is to say that you can predict how 2004-05 would have panned out had they played, and you simply can't do that. As unlikely as it seems, Detroit could have finished 27th overall and won the draft lottery, you just don't know.

Conversely, bottom feeders wouldn't necessarily have finished last either. There's no way Atlanta would have been far out of the playoffs with their talent. Columbus would have (most likely) been vastly improved. Again, we don't know for certain, so how can we give one of them Crosby?

Your luck can change just that quickly:

Boston 1995-96: 91 pts
Boston 1996-97: 61 pts (#1 pick Joe Thornton)

Carolina 2001-02: 91 pts (Stanley Cup finalist)
Carolina 2002-03: 61 pts (#2 pick Eric Staal)

San Jose 2002-03: 73 pts (#6 pick)
San Jose 2003-04: 104 pts, 3rd overall in the leage

Quebec 1991-92: 52 pts
Quebec 1992-93: 104 pts, 3rd overall in the league

What if 92-93 was wiped out because of a lockout? Quebec sucked for so many years before that, they would have been the obvious 1st choice for the #1 pick at the 1993 draft.

Predict with 100% accuracy? No, I could not do that. A pretty close educated guess? Now that I could do and would be a hell of a lot fairer than basing your whole system on the fact that there may have been a slight anonmoly regarding one or two teams in the actual order that would have happened rather than what most would predict. Hell, do not even take my educated guess, take the guess of the experts. The odds for the 2004-5 season that never happened are still out there to see from various Vegas booking sites, I have posted them in the past.

 

[mooseOAK*]

Alright smart guy, here we go. You tell me the Leafs won't be gutted.

Under contract for 2005-06:

Mats Sundin $9,000,000
Owen Nolan $7,404,009
Ed Belfour $6,000,000 (+ at least 1/3 of his $2MM signing bonus)
Bryan McCabe $4,550,000
Tomas Kaverle $3,000,000
Ken Klee $2,500,000
Darcy Tucker $2,100,000
Matt Stajan $1,060,000
TOTAL = $35,614,009

That's 8 players. Count 'em, eight. Already at $35.6 million, which is MORE than the NHL's last salary cap proposal already. You need to fill 23 roster spots, so 15 more to go.

RFA's: Mostly fill-ins, Berg, Antropov, Belak, Kilger, Pilar, Perrott made a combined $5.5 million in 04-05.

UFA's: Leetch, Mogilny, Roberts, Nieuwendyk, Domi were under contract for a combined $21 million for 2005-06.

You seem to be smarter than me, how do they fit the $35.6 million already committed plus about $5.5 million on RFA's and approx $21 million on their UFA's under a $35 million salary cap? Even a $40 million salary cap? Completely impossible. Even if you factor in a 24% rollback, which may not happen.

This means the Leafs are gonna lose a lot more than 2 or 3 players. The Leafs are about to be gutted.

That's a heck of a lot of work to do without even knowing what the rules under the new CBA will be. A luxury tax and/or grandfathering will mean no changes at all.

 

[CGG]

The closest was Carolina, but they were still a bottom half team. Frankly, only these teams should have a shot at the #1 pick:

Nashville Predators
Edmonton Oilers
Buffalo Sabres
Minnesota Wild
Los-Angeles Kings
Atlanta Thrashers
Anaheim Mighty Ducks
Carolina Hurricanes
Florida Panthers
New-York Rangers
Phoenix Coyotes
Columbus Bluejackets
Washington Capitals
Chicago Blackhawks
Pittsburgh Penguins

So why do you cut it off at 15 teams? Why should playoff team Nashville get a shot while the equally mediocre Islanders get no shot? Who of these teams gets the #1 pick? Or is it evenly weighted amongst the 15 teams? Carolina or Anaheim, both recent Stanley Cup finalists, could end up with Crosby, how do you explain that to Columbus? Or Calgary, who didn't even have a chance?

IMO, you can't arbitrarily cut off a bunch of teams, whether you use 5 or 25, and claim the rest get zero chance. The only thing you have to decide is completely even amongst 30 teams or somewhat slanted towards the "lesser" teams, but you still need to give everyone at least a chance. If a season was played, every single team had a chance to finish in the bottom 5, win the lottery and pick Crosby. Not all teams had an equal chance, but they all had a chance.

 

[CGG]

That's a heck of a lot of work to do without even knowing what the rules under the new CBA will be. A luxury tax and/or grandfathering will mean no changes at all.

I admire your optimism, but seeing as the PA already agreed to a salary cap, and even their own proposals involve salary caps now, do you really think there's gonna be a CBA with no salary cap?

And with a salary cap in place and the future looking horribly bleak for the leage, you can't possibly think that the Leafs will be allowed to keep all their current players, their RFA's and their UFA's by spending $60 million. Of all the interviews I have seen, even with JFJ himself, there has been nary a mention of grandfathering. Why would 29 other owners agree to the Leaf Salary Cap Exemption?

I don't know what the CBA will look like, but face facts, the Leafs will be gutted as soon as it's signed.

 

[WC Handy*]

IMO, you can't arbitrarily cut off a bunch of teams, whether you use 5 or 25, and claim the rest get zero chance.

Because you say so? Every single year an arbitrary number is used to determine which teams have a shot at the #1 pick.

 

[NYIsles1*]

So, if that's the case, why don't the Islanders considering moving. Really, not trying to be sarcastic, but maybe it would be better for them to leave Long Island.

Why? Hockey would be better off in the suburbs than trying to compete in baseball's spotlight. Why do you think the Rangers claimed 40.9 million in losses operating.

Without the city giving the Garden tax ememptions in the early 80's the Rangers were moving to New Jersey. Hockey would be better served outside baseball's largest market.

The Rangers are not in the same media universe as the Knicks? I can't believe someone in the city can even say that. The Knicks and Rangers have both been ignored equally by the NY media for years.

All due respect, nothing can be further from the truth. The Knicks play to a much larger demographic of people and unlike hockey stars coming to play games at Msg for road games bring attention in of itself. The Nets generate interest well above hockey here.

Both the Knicks and Nets get two articles (or more on gamedays) in the Post from Marc Berman and Fred Kerber. Peter Vecsey does articles on the NBA (well beyond Brooks lazy updates on Sunday) where folks read about other players and markets.

 

[Lanny MacDonald*]

If that was his choice I would support him 100%.

Freedom of choice .. Can't beat it ...

Here everyone is fighting over him and local Canadian papers are already saying that he may not go to a team that drafts him if it is not his choice and force that team to trade his rights or he may sit out two seasons play in the AHL and then become an UFA ... You can lead horse water but you can't make him drink as the saying goes ..

Since we had not season and there really isn't any fair method to please everyone .. Make this year only just like US College recruitment ..

Set the whole draft class free and then set a limit as to the number of players you can sign per team .. Nine NHL draft rounds .. Nine or 10 contracts to obtain players rights throughout NA and Europe ..

Let the players make the choice .. and the scouts and agents and gm's earn their money in recruitment decisions ..

What is wrong with that ??

Not a damn thing. Are the players going to pay for their own development costs then? What you suggest means that the minor leagues should be dismantled as with no draft why bother developing players when you can just buy them? I guess you can also get rid of the NHLPA all together as they are no longer needed, its every man for himself? Makes all the sense in the world. I'm actually all for that as it would mean the teams could set an industry wide entry level cap themselves and have collusion rights just like the players have had and not have to worry about the other BS. Now if we can only get the PA to go along with that things would be golden.

 

[trahans99]

Anyone have a clue when they will do this lottery...

They dont need to have a cba done before they determine the draft order, but they do need the cba before they can actually have a draft.

I CANT WAIT TO SEE WHERE CROSBY LANDS.... I hope Columbus, Atlanta or a Canadian team gets him!!!

 

[WC Handy*]

I hope an American team gets him.

 

[mooseOAK*]

I admire your optimism, but seeing as the PA already agreed to a salary cap, and even their own proposals involve salary caps now, do you really think there's gonna be a CBA with no salary cap?

And with a salary cap in place and the future looking horribly bleak for the leage, you can't possibly think that the Leafs will be allowed to keep all their current players, their RFA's and their UFA's by spending $60 million. Of all the interviews I have seen, even with JFJ himself, there has been nary a mention of grandfathering. Why would 29 other owners agree to the Leaf Salary Cap Exemption?

I don't know what the CBA will look like, but face facts, the Leafs will be gutted as soon as it's signed.

Who's going to take on those contracts?

If you could get rid of your myopia for just a second you will see that the Leafs are but one of a number of teams that wouldn't be able to get under your theoretical $35 million hard cap with a full roster next season. In adition to those teams the NHLPA would love grandfathering also.

The only cap that the NHLPA agreed to was a $49 million one where for two years they could go up to $54 million. Ample room to keep those players until their contracts are up.

 

[Roger's Pancreas*]

With all honesty I hope Chicago gets him. Chicago just has a great history and really needs a Stanley Cup in order for that franchise to take flight again.

 

[Matty]

Just horrible systems being talked about here. If they end up going with anything close to what's being proposed, its' going to be a frickin' disaster. The odds are way too close, and it's almost guaranteed that some great team is going to end up with the first pick.

There are about 15 teams that deserve *zero* shot at the #1 pick. Cup winners like Tampa, Detroit, Colorado, New Jersey, top teams like Ottawa, Philly, my own Canucks, etc.

Yes, we don't know how the standings would have turned out last year. But there's no way in hell any of those teams would have been worst in the league. Here are the last few 30th overall teams, and where they were the previous season:

'04 - Pittsburgh. Previously 29th
'03 - Carolina. 16th
'02 - Atlanta. 28th
'01 - Islanders. 26th

The closest was Carolina, but they were still a bottom half team. Frankly, only these teams should have a shot at the #1 pick:

Nashville Predators
Edmonton Oilers
Buffalo Sabres
Minnesota Wild
Los-Angeles Kings
Atlanta Thrashers
Anaheim Mighty Ducks
Carolina Hurricanes
Florida Panthers
New-York Rangers
Phoenix Coyotes
Columbus Bluejackets
Washington Capitals
Chicago Blackhawks
Pittsburgh Penguins

The league essentially has two possible outcomes here. They either give the pick to a team that was previously bad, or a team that was previously good. Since the whole point of the draft is to give high picks to bad teams, in what possible way can you justify giving it to a good team, that didn't have even a single season of bad play?

"Well, OK, sure they won the Cup and made the playoffs in the three years preceding the lockout, have one of the highest payrolls in the league, and have won the Cup again since the lockout, and haven't missed the playoffs for 10 years, but gosh golly gee, we really think that in that one year, they would have been the worst team in the league".

If the league holds the draft on the premise of 'deserving' the pick, IMO that will be a frickin disaster.

No team, none, zippo, nadda, 'deserves' Crosby. Hell, even if a season were played no team would really 'deserve' him. But the reality is, the league still has to distribute this draft class (eventually) and they seem to want to do it sooner rather than later.

And it's not like the league can really go to TB, Ottawa, San Jose, NJ, Colorado (and whatever other teams you randomly deem undeserving)...etc, etc and say, 'we've decided that you guys are in a good position for the upcoming season so therefore, you will get the bottom picks.'

And I agree that Van is in a good position but hey, lady luck has thrown enough crap our way over the years that I wouldn't complain if we landed a 'freebie' top 5 pick.

And make no mistake about it, this draft is a freebie no matter how you look at it...for all teams...crappy and good.

Personally, I think this system is pretty fair (or as fair as you're gonna get in a weighted system).

Perhaps some tweaking along the lines of...

All teams get one ball for each year. One ball is taken away from the Stanley Cup Champs of each year. One extra ball is given to any team that didn't make the post season and didn't receive the top pick in that draft year (or a lottery pick in that draft year). And the system goes back for two seasons.