Starting in 2016, here is the full table of odds for where a team finishes vs. the selection they will be awarded in the draft, based on the new odds and the fact that the top 3 draft selections are assigned by lottery:
A couple things of note:
-the worst finishing team will only be awarded a top 3 pick a smidge over 50% of the time. That means, 50% of the time, the worst team will slide to the 4th overall pick.
-99.4% of the time, the draft order will be different than the standings. So, pretty much always.
-In fact, of the 7 draft selections the 4th worst team may be awarded, they would be LEAST likely to actually end up with the 4th overall pick than any other pick they could end up with. At just over 3% odds, effectively the team that finishes 4th worst should never actually own the 4th overall pick. WTF is up with that NHL?