Draft lottery changes coming: 2015 odds tweaked, 2016 top three spots drawn

[Selanne00008]

This actually works good for us. We should be better in 2016. What if we finish 10th-15th and get a top 3 pick.

Just listened to interview with Murray. In 2016 the last place team can end up moving all the way to 4th. Thank god that is not for next season. That is harsh!!!

Yeah this is the biggest thing I care about. I wanted finishing last to mean at the very least pikcing 2nd overall, and that still holds true for 2015. Going from 25 to 20% I can live with, especially with other 1st rounders we can add to the chances.

 

[haseoke39]

Count me among the people who absolutely do not expect the Sabres to be winning any lotteries in 2016. The day they conduct their lottery live will be the day I assume it's fair.

 

[drew5580]

interesting how long it takes this league to act when it comes to things like removing red lines, larger goals ect. And how everyone dragged their feet to get to the bargaining table for two lockouts. but they can hurt our odds at #1 next draft overnight.

 

[joshjull]

The discussion about the Kesler trade and impact on #1 pick has been moved to the Draft Day GDT

 

[Jim Bob]

Given that 2015 still has 30th place having the 2nd overall pick as the worst case scenario, I don't really care about this at all.

 

[Ron C.]

I would be very happy with Eichel and some bonus pick with the Isles #1.

 

[Bps21*]

This could have gone a lot worse. If they were to have pushed for the number of picks increasing in the lottery...it would have been a disaster. But the way it is...We finish last we are still guaranteed picking 2? Cool. You lowered our odds to keep 1? Oh well. I still get Eichel guaranteed though right? Cool. I always looked at this season as playing for eichel with the chance of McDavid anyway. So...cool.

 

[internet toughguy]

on the bright side: if we finish 2nd, our odds of winning the lottery just increased.

edit: assuming the flattening is dispersed among the rest of the teams in an uptick-fashion, of course.

 

[Selanne00008]

You know, it would be kinda funny if it still worked out for us. A lot of other fans would tell us Buffalo fans to "**** are you happy now? It's not rigged, league is not out to get buffalo, etc.."




ya right lol

 

[haseoke39]

You know, it would be kinda funny if it still worked out for us. A lot of other fans would tell us Buffalo fans to "**** are you happy now? It's not rigged, league is not out to get buffalo, etc.."




ya right lol

But it won't, so we just carry on.

 

[haseoke39]

on the bright side: if we finish 2nd, our odds of winning the lottery just increased.

edit: assuming the flattening is dispersed among the rest of the teams in an uptick-fashion, of course.

This doesn't make any sense. They can't increase the odds of 13 other teams JUST by taking odds away from #1. You'd cut our odds in half just to increase everyone else 1%.

No, they have to be decreasing the odds for all the top teams. Which is right and fair, I'm sure, because all of the worst 5 or so teams got there by trying to tank, right?

 

[brian_griffin]

It's hard to think the math through when no one knows the percentages.

In all likelihood, it lowers the chance for us winning the #1 overall pick, but raises the (still admittedly fairly long) odds of drafting both McDavid and Eichel.

You're very much overthinking what I said.

The only way for the Sabres to get the top two picks is for the Sabres/Islanders to win the lottery and the other to finish last. This likely increase the chances of that happening based on the teams rosters.

Yes, you're right for that specific 2015 outcome of obtaining BOTH the 1st and 2nd pick, I agree the chances for the combined outcome are increased slightly, but ONLY BECAUSE the 30th team can pick no worse than 2nd.** Also, that slight increase in the combined outcome comes with a MUCH LARGER DECREASE in the probability of picking 1st and nth (but not 2nd), and therefore a correspondingly large INCREASE in the probability of picking 2nd and nth (but not 1st).

For 2015, I'd vastly prefer the much larger probability under the old rules of picking 1st the worse BUF finishes as against the much smaller increase in probability of picking both 1st and 2nd under the new rules.

**in 2016 (and I assume beyond), with top 3 picks in play, the guarantee of no worse than 2nd pick to the bottom finisher goes away. Then, scenarios for 1st & 2nd picks (i.e., combination events) become MUCH smaller, because they become the products of the individual probabilities. We'll figure that one out later...

 

[Sabre Dance]

Probably already answered, but can you still only drop 1 spot if you lose the lottery or can you drop further down the draft?

 

[joshjull]

Probably already answered, but can you still only drop 1 spot if you lose the lottery or can you drop further down the draft?

Next year 2015 you can only drop one spot. After that, 2016 and beyond, you can drop as far as the 4th pick if you in last place. 2016 will be the first year that the first 3 picks are chosen by lottery.

 

[Sabre Dance]

Next year 2015 you can only drop one spot. After that, 2016 and beyond, you can drop as far as the 4th pick if you in last place. 2016 will be the first year that the first 3 picks are chosen by lottery.

Thanks.

 

[Woodhouse]

Lottery odd changes: http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=728795

In 2015, 30th = 20% odds and worst they draft is 2nd overall, but by 2016 they could be picking fourth, as first three spots are lottery-drawn.

 

[haseoke39]

Lottery odd changes: http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=728795

In 2015, 30th = 20% odds and worst they draft is 2nd overall, but by 2016 they could be picking fourth, as first three spots are lottery-drawn.

Just coming to post this. Finally.

I don't particularly care one way or the other, because I never planned on winning the 2015 lottery, and I don't plan on them being bad enough for it to matter in 2016.

 

[Jacob582]

Dan Rosen ‏@drosennhl · 7m
NHL officially announces changes to the draft lottery format, to be phased-in over 2 yr period, starting in 2015. http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=728795&navid=nhl:topheads

The odds of winning the first overall selection in the NHL Draft for the 14 non-Playoff teams will be adjusted to more appropriately reflect the current state of competitive balance in the League. This will result in a more evenly-balanced allocation of odds, with the 10 highest-finishing non-Playoff qualifying teams receiving higher (better) Draft Lottery odds than they received previously and the four lowest-finishing teams receiving lower (worse) odds.

 

[Jim Bob]

Just coming to post this. Finally.

I don't particularly care one way or the other, because I never planned on winning the 2015 lottery, and I don't plan on them being bad enough for it to matter in 2016.

This is what was rumored all along and why I didn't see why people were reacting to Campbell's hint on Monday.

As long as the 2015 Lottery is just for the 1st overall, all is well with me and any "the NHL is trying to screw Buffalo again!!!" talk is pure rubbish.

 

[haseoke39]

This is what was rumored all along and why I didn't see why people were reacting to Campbell's hint on Monday.

As long as the 2015 Lottery is just for the 1st overall, all is well with me and any "the NHL is trying to screw Buffalo again!!!" talk is pure rubbish.

Well, to be fair, Campbell was pretty misleading. He said the change was not the one previously speculated and that it was a minor tweak. Changing the lottery from one pick to three is not a minor tweak. Makes me think he just wanted to say whatever he needed to so he didn't look like the villain in Buffalo.

 

[26CornerBlitz]

NHL announces changes to Draft Lottery format

Under phase-in plan, odds will be adjusted to reflect increasing competitive balance in 2015; Lottery will be expanded to determine first three selections in 2016

The National Hockey League announced today changes to its Draft Lottery, a weighted system implemented and utilized to determine the order of selection in the first round of the NHL Draft for the 14 Clubs not qualifying for the Stanley Cup Playoffs (or the Clubs that have acquired the first-round drafting positions of those non-playoff teams).



These changes will be phased in over a two-year period, beginning with the Draft Lottery in 2015.

Team|New Odds|Former
1|20.0%|25.0%
2|13.5%|18.8%
3|11.5%|14.2%
4|9.5%|10.7%
5|8.5%|8.1%
6|7.5%|6.2%
7|6.5%|4.7%
8|6.0%|3.6%
9|5.0%|2.7%
10|3.5%|2.1%
11|3.0%|1.5%
12|2.5%|1.1%
13|2.0%|0.8%
14|1.0%|0.5%

 

[Woodhouse]

For the TL;DR crowd, here are the odds:

Team|New Odds|Former
1|20.0%|25.0%
2|13.5%|18.8%
3|11.5%|14.2%
4|9.5%|10.7%
5|8.5%|8.1%
6|7.5%|6.2%
7|6.5%|4.7%
8|6.0%|3.6%
9|5.0%|2.7%
10|3.5%|2.1%
11|3.0%|1.5%
12|2.5%|1.1%
13|2.0%|0.8%
14|1.0%|0.5%

 

[Jim Bob]

Well, to be fair, Campbell was pretty misleading. He said the change was not the one previously speculated and that it was a minor tweak. Changing the lottery from one pick to three is not a minor tweak. Makes me think he just wanted to say whatever he needed to so he didn't look like the villain in Buffalo.

I doubt anyone in Buffalo really cares about Lottery changes post-2015 as many think that the Sabres won't be in the mix for 1st Overall in 2016.

 

[haseoke39]

I doubt anyone in Buffalo really cares about Lottery changes post-2015 as many think that the Sabres won't be in the mix for 1st Overall in 2016.

He didn't say they were changes that would have a minor impact on Buffalo. He said they were minor changes. I think he was misleading.

 

[Bps21*]

So it's what we thought it was. Fine with it since last gets you Eichel guaranteed this year. Hell it going to three lottery spots in 2016 probably does us a favor.