What are the chances the Rangers move up to get Dach? Would Kreider plus WPG hypothetical 18th OA and DAL 1st be enough? Or am I just crazy. His size and skill would be a nice addition.
If there's any chance at getting into the top 10, you're probably looking at a deal (or a 1-2 punch of deals) involving one of Kreider, Buch, Skjei, or Andersson, in some capacity.
I don't think you can trade right into the top 10, unless you have a team that really wants to go for it and feels motivated to add young veteran. In that sense, I think someone like Buch becomes more attractive to a team because of the age/upside combination. But I don't think the Rangers would be keen to that idea.
A more practical, but still difficult path would likely require two separate moves. You'd have to move to someone like Kreider to a team with a mid-first, aka the teams that want to have a chance to do what Dallas, Carolina, etc. are doing this year --- take that next step, get over the hump and into the playoffs, and maybe get into a situation where the matchup is favorable and the breaks go your way.
So that's why you see people spitballing about moving Kreider to a team like Arizona for 14, and then bundling that pick to move up.
The Rangers will have the assets to make a move. It's a question about cost. Having the Dallas pick would help, A LOT. And having that Jets pick slide down to 18 or 19 would help, A LOT. But I don't think those two bundled together get you into the top 10. I think those two picks, bundled with Kreider certainly would, but then you start getting into the realm of insane over-payments.
While the Rangers would love to get another top 10 pick, and are expected to be aggressive, I don't know if I see them going guano loco to make it happen either.
I think the best case scenario for the Rangers moving into the top 10 would be if they can move Kreider for 14, if the Jets pick ends up at 18, and if the Dallas pick comes in at 28.
In that scenario, I think there's at least a chance they can bundle 14 and 28 to maybe approach Edmonton, Anaheim or Vancouver. If they're close enough, and someone they love slips, Minnesota is also a potential trade partner --- especially if the Rangers are sitting just two spots back. Admittedly, that would probably be ideal because the cost to move up two slots might only be a second.
But let's assume 14 and 28 is the cost to get to 9, and is particularly appealing to Anaheim because they would now have three first round picks. Of course that all depends on whether they are confident they can get someone they love just as much at 14 as they do at 9. For all we know they have Zegras in a virtual tie with five other players, which means one of them will be there at 14.
The Rangers could also bundle 18 and 58 to get to 14, and then package 14 and 28 to get to 9 or 10. That would involve them keeping Kreider, having significantly less picks, but also getting a guy they love.
The Rangers could also go the Kreider route, pursue 9 or 10, and then package 18 and 58 to get to 15.
Or they could change their mind, drop the pursuit of a top 10 pick, and just focus on smaller moves. Bundling 18 and 58 to move up 3-4 slots; staying put at 28; and being perfectly content to pick at 2, 14, 28 and 37.
But having more assets is always helpful, because it does give you more leeway to "splurge" a little.
The Jets pick being at 21 vs. 26/28 is huge because the difference is worth a second. Similarly, a drop down to 18 would be huge, because that's the value of another second.
The Dallas pick being 28 instead of 50 would also be tremendous.
Admittedly, the Tampa pick being 31 and not 58, and Vegas winning the other night would've been great, but it is what it is. We do still have some interesting possibilities, but we won't know what we have to work with for a few weeks still.
