Draft and UDFA Thread 2018-19: Part VI (Lottery 04/09 8PM EST)

[eco's bones]

Brian Leetch is a pretty poor example to use when referencing Byram. Leetch was not at all the consensus best dman going into the 1986 entry draft. I in fact have the 1986 Hockey News draft review and there were a lot of concerns about him. For instance in that draft article he was considered small, weak and having played against inferior competition. The Hockey News synopsis wondered if he had enough physical size and strength to handle playing defense in the NHL and suggested 'if' he did make it to the NHL it might be as a center. The Rangers took him at 9 and though minds began to change on him within the next couple months after that draft---he was considered a bit of a reach being taken that early. He played for Avon Old Farms his draft year and went on to play one year at Boston College and then on to the US Olympic team which back then consisted of prospects and not NHL pros. This is 1986 and you can throw away internet accessability and all the other draft analysis that we're used to now---there wasn't a lot back then and the Hockey News was an extremely important--arguably the most important--source of hockey information back then.

So really what we can say about Leetch is he surprised people. No one really expected he was going to become an elite player. As odd as it may sound to say his story isn't that far away from Henrik's. Yeah, Brian was a first rounder but.....

 

[Edge]

Brian Leetch is a pretty poor example to use when referencing Byram. Leetch was not at all the consensus best dman going into the 1986 entry draft. I in fact have the 1986 Hockey News draft review and there were a lot of concerns about him. For instance in that draft article he was considered small, weak and having played against inferior competition. The Hockey News synopsis wondered if he had enough physical size and strength to handle playing defense in the NHL and suggested 'if' he did make it to the NHL it might be as a center. The Rangers took him at 9 and though minds began to change on him within the next couple months after that draft---he was considered a bit of a reach being taken that early. He played for Avon Old Farms his draft year and went on to play one year at Boston College and then on to the US Olympic team which back then consisted of prospects and not NHL pros. This is 1986 and you can throw away internet accessability and all the other draft analysis that we're used to now---there wasn't a lot back then and the Hockey News was an extremely important--arguably the most important--source of hockey information back then.

So really what we can say about Leetch is he surprised people. No one expected really expected he was going to be an elite player.

It's funny you mention the Center thing.

I remember chatting with Craig Patrick at a media event early in my career where I was serving as a wrangler. We briefly chatted about the Brian Leetch draft debate and while the Rangers loved his skill, they were apparently 50/50 as to whether he would end up at center. Patrick himself thought he'd make it a defenseman, but it wasn't a given by any stretch.

 

[Edge]

Yeah this team isn’t strong enough at any position to consider passing on a guy because he’s a D/C/W.

The only position I’m 100% comfortable with moving forward is goalie.

If Byram is deemed the BPA where we’re picking (and IMO he’s BPA from 3 down)...he should be taken.

And that's really what it comes down to for me.

I think we need help in a lot of areas and I don't consider LD to be a position that has the kind of remarkable talent that we wouldn't at least consider a guy like Byram in the right spot.

I like what we have at LD, I don't like it to the point that I wouldn't consider Byram.

 

[effen]

If Byram was on Leetch/Zubov level he'd be going first overall. Let's not get carried away just because he's the best D in the draft

Literally everything said about Byram was said about Cam Barker.

Food for thought.

 

[effen]

Looking at that 2004 Draft is great in retrospect.
Ovechkin/Malkin 1/2. Sick.
Barker head and shoulders best D at 3, busts. Can't process the game fast enough.
Ladd was a reach at 4. Late riser that was supposed to go to NYR at 6 iirc.
Wheeler at 5 was supposed to go like 30th. Heads exploded.
Olesz fell to 7, turns out he couldn't play hockey well.
Tukonen falls at 11, LA is the toast of the draft, plays 5 NHL games.
Radulov was a top 5 talent but a headcase. Scouting proven right.
Rob Schremp sunk to 25, GMs r so DUM omg, busts.
Korpikoski wasn't a 1st round talent but had insane grit in like situp workouts that so impressed everyone he went 19th to NYR LOL.

Rangers draft Darin Olver despite him not being good because their old assistant coach did his kid a solid overselling him LOL.

What a time to be alive.

 

[Edge]

Talking top 2? No wouldn't take Byram there.

Talking 3-7 range? Yeah, definitely in play.

As I've said, I love Byram and have him third. But as I've also said, there's not a ton of difference between 3 and 7 for me. So when we talk about Byram, Cozens, Turcotte, Zegras and Dach, I can't really argue against any of them.

I do think that Byram has the potential to rank higher among defensemen than those guys do among their fellow centers, but I wouldn't say it was like comparing fresh cut filets to beef jerky either.

 

[Riche16]

Looking at that 2004 Draft is great in retrospect.
Ovechkin/Malkin 1/2. Sick.
Barker head and shoulders best D at 3, busts. Can't process the game fast enough.
Ladd was a reach at 4. Late riser that was supposed to go to NYR at 6 iirc.
Wheeler at 5 was supposed to go like 30th. Heads exploded.
Olesz fell to 7, turns out he couldn't play hockey well.
Tukonen falls at 11, LA is the toast of the draft, plays 5 NHL games.
Radulov was a top 5 talent but a headcase. Scouting proven right.
Rob Schremp sunk to 25, GMs r so DUM omg, busts.
Korpikoski wasn't a 1st round talent but had insane grit in like situp workouts that so impressed everyone he went 19th to NYR LOL.

Rangers draft Darin Olver despite him not being good because their old assistant coach did his kid a solid overselling him LOL.

What a time to be alive.

(Pulls car over to puke)

 

[Lays]

Talking top 2? No wouldn't take Byram there.

Talking 3-7 range? Yeah, definitely in play.

As I've said, I love Byram and have him third. But as I've also said, there's not a ton of difference between 3 and 7 for me. So when we talk about Byram, Cozens, Turcotte, Zegras and Dach, I can't really argue against any of them.

I do think that Byram has the potential to rank higher among defensemen than those guys do among their fellow centers, but I wouldn't say it was like comparing fresh cut filets to beef jerky either.

I wouldn’t mind Byram at all with the pick, 2020 is even more stacked on forwards than this draft and we should be worse in 2020. A chance at any of LaF, Lundell, Byfield, Perfetti, Gunler, Raymond, Holtz etc has me salivating. Get the defense issue out of the way with Byram and then focus only on forwards with the Jets pick and our own pick next year. I’d prefer to trade up from the Jets pick using Kreider though to try and grab Zegras/Dach/Boldy if any fall out of the top 10. Draft Ryder Donovan who I think is the next Alex Tuch with our own 2nd and then move up to draft Samuel Poulin (having a monster playoffs and is a captain for his team already). Sign Panarin+Fox as FA

Realistically we can come away with Byram+Boldy in this draft and then grab someone like Perfetti next year. Then sign Fox

Panarin-Perfetti-Kravtsov
Boldy-Zib-Chytil
Lias-Howden-Donovan
Poulin-Barron-Lemieux

Byram-Fox
Miller-Lundkvist
Hajek/Lindgren/Rykov/Reunanen/ADA/Keane

Shestyorkin
Georgiev

In a few years. Use other assets like Buch/Skjei to improve lineup even further. This lineup has speed, skill, character, and grit

 

[Bluenote13]

Byram going into the 2nd round of playoffs tonight vs Victoria.

He has 27 points in his last 21, 8 points in 6 playoff games.

 

[Cag29]

Let’s just take the BPA no matter where we pick.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Let’s just take the BPA no matter where we pick.

They always do. Every team drafts their BPA

 

[Cag29]

They always do. Every team drafts their BPA

Hopefully we get it right. We are overdue for some luck. LGR!

 

[Tawnos]

Let’s just take the BPA no matter where we pick.

BPA is a myth.

 

[Edge]

Let’s just take the BPA no matter where we pick.

The challenge is that BPA isn’t a tangible constant that everyone agrees on. That’s why there’s almost always debate.

It’s one thing to say BPA, it’s another to arrive at the same conclusion as to who that is.

 

[Edge]

BPA is a myth.

I wouldn’t say myth, so much as I’d say it’s an opinion.

 

[Tawnos]

I wouldn’t say myth, so much as I’d say it’s an opinion.

Same thing, really.

 

[Tawnos]

@Edge or anyone else whose been around this stuff.

Do teams often take a player who isn’t at the top of their draft board when their pick comes up in order to fill an organizational need?

 

[Edge]

Same thing, really.

I guess, somewhat.

An opinion can indeed be right or correct, even if it doesn’t receive universal acceptance. It can be a real thing, even if it’s somewhat unpopular. Sometimes it just takes time. A myth, by its very nature is false.

You’re not wrong though. And I am wondering why I am even giving this much thought to this silly thing. I need the lottery to get here.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

I wouldn’t mind Byram at all with the pick, 2020 is even more stacked on forwards than this draft and we should be worse in 2020. A chance at any of LaF, Lundell, Byfield, Perfetti, Gunler, Raymond, Holtz etc has me salivating. Get the defense issue out of the way with Byram and then focus only on forwards with the Jets pick and our own pick next year. I’d prefer to trade up from the Jets pick using Kreider though to try and grab Zegras/Dach/Boldy if any fall out of the top 10. Draft Ryder Donovan who I think is the next Alex Tuch with our own 2nd and then move up to draft Samuel Poulin (having a monster playoffs and is a captain for his team already). Sign Panarin+Fox as FA

Realistically we can come away with Byram+Boldy in this draft and then grab someone like Perfetti next year. Then sign Fox

Panarin-Perfetti-Kravtsov
Boldy-Zib-Chytil
Lias-Howden-Donovan
Poulin-Barron-Lemieux

Byram-Fox
Miller-Lundkvist
Hajek/Lindgren/Rykov/Reunanen/ADA/Keane

Shestyorkin
Georgiev

In a few years. Use other assets like Buch/Skjei to improve lineup even further. This lineup has speed, skill, character, and grit

My pie in the sky dream for 2020 is to get a top 5 pick, then if they also have Dallas’ pick from Zuccarello resigning, if it’s in the teens grab Justin Barron

 

[Tawnos]

I guess, somewhat.

An opinion can indeed be right or correct, even if it doesn’t receive universal acceptance. It can be a real thing, even if it’s somewhat unpopular. Sometimes it just takes time. A myth, by its very nature is false.

I don’t want to get too much in the weeds here, but... Myths are almost universally rooted in truth. Historically, they were ways to explain things that were unexplainable with the tools that were available at the time.

In the case of BPA, I call it a myth, because the concept was essentially invented to explain why a team shouldn’t have taken the guy that a fan didn’t agree with. In other words, to argue against an action the person found unexplainable.

 

[Lays]

My pie in the sky dream for 2020 is to get a top 5 pick, then if they also have Dallas’ pick from Zuccarello resigning, if it’s in the teens grab Justin Barron

Jamie Drysdale>>

Don’t think he’ll be there in the mid teens anymore though

 

[Edge]

@Edge or anyone else whose been around this stuff.

Do teams often take a player who isn’t at the top of their draft board when their pick comes up in order to fill an organizational need?

I can only speak to what I’ve seen/heard, so it doesn’t necessarily apply across the board.

But from my experience, most teams legit go with the guy at the top of their list. However, there is a caveat to that.

Not unlike competition scores, a player’s final cumulative grade might be equal to that of other players.

So let’s just use this draft as an example. Let’s say the Rangers give both Cozens and Byram a final grade of 93.5. Depending on how the Rangers feel about their depth, they may then use position as a deciding factor.

I’ve also heard of teams giving bonus points to how they rate the importance of each position - not unlike what some MLB teams do. So while they aren’t drafting for position per se, position might be a factor in how they rate a player. If that makes sense.

It’s also worth noting that how a team arrives at the score can be very subjective.

For example, a team might have Hughes and Kakko very close. However, they may feel that a more physically mature Hughes rates higher than a closer to the finished product Kakko.

 

[Tawnos]

I can only speak to what I’ve seen/heard, so it doesn’t necessarily apply across the board.

But from my experience, most teams legit go with the guy at the top of their list. However, there is a caveat to that.

Not unlike competition scores, a player’s final cumulative grade might be equal to that of other players.

So let’s just use this draft as an example. Let’s say the Rangers give both Cozens and Byram a final grade of 93.5. Depending on how the Rangers feel about their depth, they may then use position as a deciding factor.

I’ve also heard of teams giving bonus points to how they rate the importance of each position - not unlike what some MLB teams do. So while they aren’t drafting for position per se, position might be a factor in how they rate a player. If that makes sense.

It’s also worth noting that how a team arrives at the score can be very subjective.

For example, a team might have Hughes and Kakko very close. However, they may feel that a more physically mature Hughes rates higher than a closer to the finished product Kakko.

Gotcha. When you say teams have given bonus points based on position, do you know if those bonus points changed based on organizational depth? Or is it more purely “we believe centers are more valuable than wingers”...

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

Jamie Drysdale>>

Don’t think he’ll be there in the mid teens anymore though

I won’t argue that, and I haven’t even really started looking too hard at 2020 yet to be able to, J Barron has just become a personal favorite of mine

 

[Edge]

Gotcha. When you say teams have given bonus points based on position, do you know if those bonus points changed based on organizational depth? Or is it more purely “we believe centers are more valuable than wingers”...

Personally, I’ve never heard of it for the former, except when there’s a tie.

For the latter, I know a west coast team a few years back gave 4 points for centers, 3 points for RD, 2 points for LD and wings, and 1 point for goalies.