Confirmed with Link: Douglas Murray signed 1 year deal ($1.5m)

[deandebean]

Posted this quote from the article because I like to whack the hornet's nest once in a while, too.

Questioning a gm's move is normal in any sport. What isn't is calling someone judgment 'flawed'. The author pretends to be more knowledgeable than the GM by asserting the GM's judgment is 'flawed'. And, to me, that is a ton pretentious. Not a tad. A TON.

What are the author's credentials, really? Has he ever worked within the confines of a pro hockey organisation? Does he know Marc Bergevin personally? Does he know how a pro hockey team works? Has he ever been in a pro hockey locker room in his life? Does he know how players interact with each other in a day-to-day basis? I see he's a student of business adminsitration (still not completed, far from it). He should learn to stay humble if he wants to succeed in business.

 

[overlords]

Questioning a gm's move is normal in any sport. What isn't is calling someone judgment 'flawed'. The author pretends to be more knowledgeable than the GM by asserting the GM's judgment is 'flawed'. And, to me, that is a ton pretentious. Not a tad. A TON.

What are the author's credentials, really?

I'm not sure what you mean. If a GM makes a bad move, doesn't that imply his judgement was flawed?

 

[deandebean]

I'm not sure what you mean. If a GM makes a bad move, doesn't that imply his judgement was flawed?

No it doesn't. As a business person, you will take good and bad decisions. Doesn't mean your judgement is flawed. It means that the probability of making a mistake is always there, regardless of judgement. See Steve Jobs. He had, I would say, pretty good judgement on what is a marketable product, wouldn't you say? But he had some duds in his life. Lots of them. Doesn't mean his judgement is 'flawed'. There's a lot going in the world that can influence the result of a decision, most of which isn't under your control.

 

[overlords]

There were no guarantees the Sharks were even making the playoffs, let alone do damage..in fact it looked like the opposite was going to happen. Let's not forget that they "dumped " Clowe as well at the trading deadline....many thought that they were simply obtaining assets for players they were soon going to lose for nothing, and not expecting to do much damage in the playoffs.

Doug Wilson isn't infallible when it comes to evaluating players either - he was also in charge when Rivet was picked up for Gorges, and what became Patch.

Alright, and if I grant you (haha, get it? :sarcasm) that, then it can be argued that a team that wasn't expecting to do much damage jettisoned two 'important' pieces of their roster, both having the worst seasons of their career, and got better as a result, finishing at a decent spot in the standings despite only getting futures back for both, iirc.

No, doug wilson isn't infallible. But neither is shero. I imagine that one day, people will be saying the same thing about that Murray trade Shero pulled the trigger on as you just said about Wilson and Rivet.

 

[deandebean]

by the way Overlords, are you Andrew? I may look stupid asking, but I don't follow all conversations on this forum. hehehe.

 

[deandebean]

Alright, and if I grant you (haha, get it? :sarcasm) that, then it can be argued that a team that wasn't expecting to do much damage jettisoned two 'important' pieces of their roster, both having the worst seasons of their career, and got better as a result, finishing at a decent spot in the standings despite only getting futures back for both, iirc.

No, doug wilson isn't infallible. But neither is shero. I imagine that one day, people will be saying the same thing about that Murray trade Shero pulled the trigger on as you just said about Wilson and Rivet.

No one ever is. I mean, Pollock DID draft guys like Cam Connor...

 

[25get]

Murray is dating Nordegren? Nice. Very nice Douglas.

Seems she is dating Cline.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/29/elin-nordegren_0_n_3179510.html

 

[vokiel]

You guys are overanalyzing Murray.

He's actually a fantastic defender in his own zone, a tremendous PKer as well.

He can be exposed on the rush, but that's easy coaching, just give give him defensive zone faceoffs, and switch him once the forwards get the puck up the ice. I could see something like:

Markov-Subban
Gorges-Diaz
Murray-Boullion

The picture some of you are painting (as opposed to over-analyzing) does not correspond to a 1.5$ million for 1 year, 33 years old defense man signed in August. Just saying, there's exaggeration on both sides.

 

[overlords]

No it doesn't. As a business person, you will take good and bad decisions. Doesn't mean your judgement is flawed. It means that the probability of making a mistake is always there, regardless of judgement. See Steve Jobs. He had, I would say, pretty good judgement on what is a marketable product, wouldn't you say? But he had some duds in his life. Lots of them. Doesn't mean his judgement is 'flawed'. There's a lot going in the world that can influence the result of a decision, most of which isn't under your control.

Yeah, I get you. Just didn't know what definition of the word judgement you were using.

If we talk about a judgement as being a conclusion someone came to, then I would believe it to have been flawed. But you're more referring to the evaluation that precedes the conclusion. Which is very fair. Onwards.


I'd agree with you more if the author didn't put forward what he believed to be Bergevin's judgement process. Which in itself, might be presumptious.

Reading the section What was Bergevin thinking?, I'm not many will dispute that it was, most probably, what bergevin was thinking. Don't you agree?

 

[Habs13]

This is the guy the Habs badly needed - I was so disappointment by the Briere signing, but this one is great. What is not to like? He brings what Emelin does, only he is able to fight and damn does he do that well. He is mean, too, and ain't nobody running Price this season.

I'd pair him with Subban, to let PK know he can play his game without having to worry about getting jumped.

 

[jedimyrmidon]

Solid point! Granted. Actually I thought it was pretty unclear what years he used for that article, but a safe assumption is that he only used last year's.

edit: No, I'm an idiot. It's clearly written 2012-2013 one year sample. My bad.

However, there is this one as well:

http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2013/8/24/4652676/can-douglas-murray-be-an-asset-shorthanded


Takes a few years into account when analyzing.


Cheers.

It would be nice to see where elite Dmen like Chara, Suter and Weber rank in these metrics, and heck, even Gorges.

Also, I'm not sure why they are analyzing goals for, Fenwick and Corsi for and against when special teams is far from the normal flow of a game. The PK can be extremely effective without possession (I mean, most of the time, the defending team is trying to dump the puck down the ice). As for goals for, it's interesting, I suppose.

Not sure how predictive GF on the PK is for a Dman though even if it's GF-while-he's-on-the-ice since it really depends more on the forwards that a team has at its disposal on the PK (like Pleks or Parise), I would think.

Edit: So numerically, if Murray is
1) on the ice for more goals against per 60 far more often than other Dmen playing on the PK unit on their respective teams
2) significantly worse when separated from his normal D partner on the PK and/or other teammates
All of this reasonably adjusted for the competition he faced (i.e. does Berkshire's article take into account 1st and 2nd PK units?) and PK schemes used (e.g. Habs were #2 in 2011-2012, but then stunk in 2013 - a function of system more than personnel in my opinion)

If the above can be shown, then Murray can indeed be pronounced a poor PKer. As it stands, I don't see how the analysis is so waterproof that one could conclude that Murray is bad on the PK.

 

[25get]

You are grossly underrating Gorges.....He is a lock in the top 4

You are right but I would love to see Subban play with Murray.

 

[Roulin]

This is the guy the Habs badly needed - I was so disappointment by the Briere signing, but this one is great. What is not to like? He brings what Emelin does, only he is able to fight and damn does he do that well. He is mean, too, and ain't nobody running Price this season.

I'd pair him with Subban, to let PK know he can play his game without having to worry about getting jumped.

Murray can't skate like Emelin.

I expect Subban to play almost twice as many minutes as Murray, so if that's a pairing, I'd expect it to be kind of a platoon situation with Murray splitting the job with Bouillon or Tinordi. I'd rather have Gorges in that spot (well I'd actually rather have Hainsey there, but that ship has sailed).

 

[Kenny Powders]

blablabla we need toughness, we need grit and big guys.

gets a big mean guy

blablablabla we need speed, he's slow as ****..



This board is worst than my GF ranting

 

[Roulin]

blablabla we need toughness, we need grit and big guys.

gets a big mean guy

blablablabla we need speed, he's slow as ****..


This board is worst than my GF ranting

I don't think the goal of a message board should be to create a coherent hive mind.

 

[25get]

With SJS, Murray was their top d-men SH if you look at TOI. Previous year he was second behind Vlasic.

With the Pens, he was in third (behind Orpik and Martin) at par with Letang.


So he does play PK but will probably be on our second pair.

 

[Habs13]

Murray can't skate like Emelin.

I expect Subban to play almost twice as many minutes as Murray, so if that's a pairing, I'd expect it to be kind of a platoon situation with Murray splitting the job with Bouillon or Tinordi. I'd rather have Gorges in that spot (well I'd actually rather have Hainsey there, but that ship has sailed).

Yeah, Subban should play twice Murray's minutes... so maybe this would work for mean teams that go after Subban, of just on nights where he is a target. Options! Love it!

 

[overlords]

by the way Overlords, are you Andrew? I may look stupid asking, but I don't follow all conversations on this forum. hehehe.

Haha. No. If he offered to pay me to write for his site, though...

No one ever is. I mean, Pollock DID draft guys like Cam Connor...

Yep. Which is why I don't like using a person's reputation in decision making as leverage in a debate. Everyone has made mistakes. Every argument on this forum could be shutdown by saying ' well, what do you know? He's a gm and you're typing on a keyboard'. Not conducive to healthy debate.

You are right but I would love to see Subban play with Murray.

As in it would be nice to see? Or something? Murray can't handle the opposition Subban faces.

 

[overlords]

It would be nice to see where elite Dmen like Chara, Suter and Weber rank in these metrics, and heck, even Gorges.

Also, I'm not sure why they are analyzing goals for, Fenwick and Corsi for and against when special teams is far from the normal flow of a game. The PK can be extremely effective without possession (I mean, most of the time, the defending team is trying to dump the puck down the ice). As for goals for, it's interesting, I suppose.

Not sure how predictive GF on the PK is for a Dman though even if it's GF-while-he's-on-the-ice since it really depends more on the forwards that a team has at its disposal on the PK (like Pleks or Parise), I would think.

Edit: So numerically, if Murray is
1) on the ice for more goals against per 60 far more often than other Dmen playing on the PK unit on their respective teams
2) significantly worse when separated from his normal D partner on the PK and/or other teammates
All of this reasonably adjusted for the competition he faced (i.e. does Berkshire's article take into account 1st and 2nd PK units?) and PK schemes used (e.g. Habs were #2 in 2011-2012, but then stunk in 2013 - a function of system more than personnel in my opinion)

If the above can be shown, then Murray can indeed be pronounced a poor PKer. As it stands, I don't see how the analysis is so waterproof that one could conclude that Murray is bad on the PK.

You should post that in the comments section. They often anwer back

 

[MSLs absurd thighs]

Haha. No. If he offered to pay me to write for his site, though...



Yep. Which is why I don't like using a person's reputation in decision making as leverage in a debate. Everyone has made mistakes. Every argument on this forum could be shutdown by saying ' well, what do you know? He's a gm and you're typing on a keyboard'. Not conducive to healthy debate.



As in it would be nice to see? Or something? Murray can't handle the opposition Subban faces.

For someone who likes micro-stats... You quite conveniently ignore the fact that quite often, Subban gets sent out there in purely offensive missions against weaker opposition.

Do I want to see Murray with Subban? No. I have him pegged on the 3rd pair, with either Bouillon or Diaz, who should be the ones who share the 6th spot depending on the kind of team we face. But to say Subban faces top opposition is ridiculous.

Another example of how the micro-stats have HUGE flaws in them: All Leafs d-men have TERRIBLE numbers in those graphics/charts. Still, I don't feel they're a weak team by any way. I don't think we particularly kept possession more than against any other team this season when playing Toronto...

 

[MSLs absurd thighs]

Solid point! Granted. Actually I thought it was pretty unclear what years he used for that article, but a safe assumption is that he only used last year's.

edit: No, I'm an idiot. It's clearly written 2012-2013 one year sample. My bad.

However, there is this one as well:

http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2013/8/24/4652676/can-douglas-murray-be-an-asset-shorthanded


Takes a few years into account when analyzing.


Cheers.

I would swear you and the other stats addicts would know this after spending about as many time analyzing deep analytics as watching games, but apparently not...

Every damn stay-at-home d-man out there have weak statistics. Following these numbers, the Leafs have one of the worst d-group in the league, when in fact I'd consider it one of the best.

 

[overlords]

For someone who likes micro-stats... You quite conveniently ignore the fact that quite often, Subban gets sent out there in purely offensive missions against weaker opposition.

Do I want to see Murray with Subban? No. I have him pegged on the 3rd pair, with either Bouillon or Diaz, who should be the ones who share the 6th spot depending on the kind of team we face. But to say Subban faces top opposition is ridiculous.

Another example of how the micro-stats have HUGE flaws in them: All Leafs d-men have TERRIBLE numbers in those graphics/charts. Still, I don't feel they're a weak team by any way. I don't think we particularly kept possession more than against any other team this season when playing Toronto...

Subban will obviously be the one sent out at the end of a game if we need a goal and if we need to defend a lead. That's why he's our #1 D. Outside that, he's far too important as a tough minute eating 2 way guy to give soft opposition to. Especially when there's nobody else that can be dependable against the strong opposition that is sure to follow.

"Micro stats have huge flaws in them because the leafs d-men are rated as being bad and I don't think they're bad."

Okay.

 

[MSLs absurd thighs]

With SJS, Murray was their top d-men SH if you look at TOI. Previous year he was second behind Vlasic.

With the Pens, he was in third (behind Orpik and Martin) at par with Letang.


So he does play PK but will probably be on our second pair.

You'd think a team like the Sharks supposedly using micro-statistics would have noticed it and refrain from doing that if they're using the same methodology as those geeks. Apparently not... heh... What a surprise.

 

[overlords]

I would swear you and the other stats addicts would know this after spending about as many time analyzing deep analytics as watching games, but apparently not...

Every damn stay-at-home d-man out there have weak statistics. Following these numbers, the Leafs have one of the worst d-group in the league, when in fact I'd consider it one of the best.

Why do you seem to be getting so hot and bothered here? Taking it personally? chill out.

Maybe you're awful at judging hockey teams? I'd hardly expect you to think that everyone here is very good at it, judging by how often you fly off the handle. Maybe it's you?

 

[MSLs absurd thighs]

Why do you seem to be getting so hot and bothered here? Taking it personally? chill out.

Maybe you're awful at judging hockey teams? I'd hardly expect you to think that everyone here is very good at it, judging by how often you fly off the handle. Maybe it's you?

Provoking people as a mod? Really? heh... That was the self-admitted goal of your original post no? So why are you surprised?

Still waiting for a valid answer as to how the Leafs have such a terrible defense, and how no freaking stay-at-home D out there in the mold of Murray (Regehr, Smid, etc...) have good statistics to show in those charts.

You would think that THE team who is the most openly admitting they're using micro-stats would be seeing the same thing as you guys if you were doing it correctly. Yet, Murray keeps being used on the PK unit again and again... Ever wondered about YOU being wrong? As I see nobody here being all that vocal about Murray not being and NHL d-man as you and MathMan. (by the way, take a look at this topic on the Pens board, it made your evaluations look... I'd rather not put a qualificative on them, because you're quite clearly trying to ambush me here. It's so obvious it's not even funny).

Then again, I wouldn't expect you to come out and agree with all of the above. You're clearly already too far in your agenda to do so. But I think it's fairly obvious stats such as this taken out of context by some wannabe journalist (in fact, journalists have to watch hockey to become just that. Which doesn't seem to be the case for this moron) are full of holes and flaws.