Value of: Dougie Hamilton
- Thread starter GregSirico
- Start date
thank you for thoughtful analysis.
my comparison varies slightly to somewhat.
TBL 2018 1st and 2019 2nd = Flames 2019 1st (value of course depends how Flames play next year, but too much risk involved).
No the TBL 2018 1st on its own = Flames 2019 1st
reason, even tho TB projects very late this year and CAL projects medium late [assumes you have successful year but fall short, it is we agree a crapshoot], even tho that, the Lightning pick is this year, and the Flames pick is a one year wait. Add that while both are considered good years to draft, this is the marquee year. So at least = if not small edge to Flames.
BOS 2018 1st = Fox (he might no sign, but his value is late 1st at the moment. Although I'm not willing to trade Fox yet, him not being interested signing with Flames is 100% speculation).
Disagree, and I explain why.
Yeah, it's speculation, but the fact is Fox is a risk until he signs. If he were signed I would acknowledge and pay more. But that is not the case, and he knows he controls the cards. He can stay in shape w/college +, get Ivy League Education, and not too long after go UFA route.
Now he may say, hey, I'm a righty shot RD, supply and demand, it behooves me to get into the NHL, play my cards right, and then max my worth based on this shortage as soon as possible
Or he may think college UFA is best/most expeditious to do that.
He might see too much logjam ahead on Flames, to which he otherwise has no negative concern, and recognize NYR or most clubs are thin on RD.
Bottom line, there is risk.
In this situation, the guaranteed 2019 TBL 2nd which can morph into a 1st is fair value. If you wanted a further conditional pick after he signs and has then demonstrated he actually is all that and a bag of chips, I would be open to that.
That leaves
Zuccarello (50% retained) and Buchnevich for Hamilton. Retaining 50% does not really matter for the Flames, and in the worst case they lose him in a year. Flipping him for a 1st means 1st and Buchnevich for Hamilton is still not enough, as the 1st would most likely be late 1st.
Goalie prospect swap does not make up for the difference.
So it would be the above + the Boston 1st this year.
The salary retained on Zuc is not big for you, but it could be key to a trading partner pinching pennies, assuming it comes to that. I think he wants to test the market, but if you pay him, I expect he accepts. But let's say he goes and you get something for him than risk nothing. So that is another 1st.
That leaves Buchnevich.
While RFA awaits after next season, that + this upcoming season's elc make him more affordable this year, and he obviously has tools to be potential scoring force. But the other thing is you pick up cap space on the deal, and that can help w/UFA additions useful to you.
HOW big is Ham? WHAT potential does Buch have?
I think enuf dif of opinion kills this deal.
I don't say discount Hamilton, but I do say don't shortchange Buchnevich
Idealistic 1:1 will be very hard to find, prepare for disappointment. I refer you to my last post for contrast in values.
Maybe not what you unrealistically prefer, but arguably value not awful unless you overrate Hamilton from borderline premium to elite.
And yes, Oil gave Hall for Larsson.
It was ridiculous. And they are paying the price for it.
Hamilton is a serious asset, yes, agree.
However, this is premium/borderline premium, not elite.
You got a build piece productive where you need, scoring W in Buch.
You got an immediate W help in Zuc, who you can add if you pay him, he is reasonably likely to consider your $ as good as anyone else's. If you go there and he doesn't you can cut cord and still get 1st.
I understand you want a home run, but that is unlikely. How many guys like Nylander are there, and how many of those are available? Even making room, Toronto is not gonna move a Nylander for Hamilton or anyone else. If worse comes to worse, which it won't b'c they have other deadwood clearing options, they'll move Kadri before they move Nylander.
Kadri at mo $ at what appears to be his potential for Hamilton?
Not enough, you want more. Would they pay?
Why is that any more ballpark than my offer?
Buch who is just starting to scratch his potential at elc followed by RFA.
Plus half yr of Zuc production morphed into 1st
plus picks
blankall
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No one is preparing for disappointment, because there is absolutely no need to trade Hamilton, who could be our future #1.
So unless an amazing offer comes along, Hamilton stays where he is.
Liferleafer
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Yeah don't see Nurse being traded but I do understand asking for him over Klefbom . I like Klefbom and last year he was very very good . If he can return to form I would move him for a similar RD before he is broke again . I remember throwing glass bottles as a kid . They broke less then Klefbom
ThePhoenixx
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ThePhoenixx
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Wanting the rebuild to end sooner than it should have (outbid Edmonton for d-men) is the reason the Flames are missing the playoffs and have no help coming from draft picks.
Nope the Oilers . Don't see how this is a bad trade from the Oilers . They get a big need in a RHD PPQB . While giving up an often injured Klefbom , A small prospect who looks good but still a prospect and the 2019 1st shouldn't be a big deal as I expect heads to roll this off season and the Oilers should be back in the playoffs .
Maybe you are expecting someone to gift the Oilers a 45 to 50 point RD
ThePhoenixx
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Your selling low while paying them a premium. Klefbom bounces back next season (had surgery) and it's a horrible trade.
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blankall
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The Flames are at the point now where any current draft picks they get will not be ready by the time their current the is totally ready to contend. A mid first is highly unlikely to be of help for the organization in the next three years. Better coaching and effective depth scoring is what they need now. 5v5 the Flames were right on track. Their horrendous special teams is what killed them, not missing yet another draft pick.
Throw bricks.
Klefbom looked completely lousy this year, maybe he rebounds maybe he doesn't. But right now, he's not that interesting for Hamilton.
Simply put there's no reason to trade Hamilton unless its a homerun period.
So unless its an offer that's completely knocking socks off its selling low.
- Sep 27, 2017
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I understand on Klefbom, but I did include a lottery pick in the proposal.
Literally someone posted Klef + Yam + 1st for just Hamilton, yet you're taking out Yam and adding Bennett? Lol the only Oilers dman who'd be in a Hamilton trade would be Nurse and add on to him.
Unless that pick is top three, there's no point in the trade for Calgary, maybe top 5 if Brady is still available, but Svech/Zadina are the big two that would help Calgary now, Dahlin would obviously become Gio's replacement but no team should trade Dahlin for Hamilton (even though it'd be pretty fair) just that ELC top pairing dman is more important than a 6m (just under) top pairing dman(also proven top pairing vs potential top pairing)
biturbo19
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I like the idea of moving Hamilton for the Flames. Brodano+Valimaki-Hamonic is a nice Top-4 that should fit together well, if Valimaki is ready at least. And moving Hamilton clears a nice bit of salary space and would return a nice enough haul.
I'd figure probably about the same sort of price the Flames paid to acquire him initially. A mid-1st and a couple 2nds sort of value. He's a bit more a proven commodity now which maybe enhances his value, but he's also a bit older and with no real "upside" left to potentially explore, which probably balances it out to around the same ballpark as previously. Though for the Flames purposes, an NHL-ready prospect in that sort of value range would probably work a lot better than just picks.
I'd figure probably about the same sort of price the Flames paid to acquire him initially. A mid-1st and a couple 2nds sort of value. He's a bit more a proven commodity now which maybe enhances his value, but he's also a bit older and with no real "upside" left to potentially explore, which probably balances it out to around the same ballpark as previously. Though for the Flames purposes, an NHL-ready prospect in that sort of value range would probably work a lot better than just picks.
ThePhoenixx
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Contend? They are not going to get any better unless they trade all their 2019 picks.
The reason they are in purgatory is they tried the quick fix. Instead of staying the path they traded away all their picks for Dmen Edmonton wanted because they were scared that Edmonton was going to be better.
Now they are screwed.
How exactly are they "screwed" and I'm pretty sure Calgary and Edmonton where in the Hamilton/Talbot discussions (with pretty much the same deals being involved for both), Hamonic had what? 4-5 teams that he wanted to go to for family reasons? So you can't really say it was cause of Edmonton.
But i don't understand how the Flames are screwed, 3 strong forward build pieces(Johnny, Money, Chucky), 4 top four dmen (Giordano is the oldest and best while Hamilton is the youngest with Hamonic and Brodie), with strong defensive prospects coming up (Valimaki and Andersson are the two I see going the farthest with the team), a couple forward prospects who could help the depth we need at forward.I don't see how we're screwed?
Critical13
Fear is the mind-killer.
Divide those trades in half and thats what you would get for Hamilton. One of the most overrated defensemen in the NHL.
Overrated? So a 40+ defenseman isn't worth half of a top 6 forward? (Most forwards on that list are top 5's), funny thing is I'd keep the guy who can score 40 plus points on the backend, not like theres 30 of them in the league right? You see defense prices all the time(I'd say Shatty/Yandle would be closer ideas, but Hamilton is also younger than they both were when traded and signed at a reasonable cap hit for a top pairing dman), I
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