Dougie Hamilton - II

[Man Rocket]

Duncan Kieth, through 2023 at 5.5, dreams big dream.

Come on Doug!

He also signed 5 years ago when the cap landscape was significantly different.

if Hedman is being used as any sort of comparable, Dougie should come in at about 75% of Hedman's contract, imo.

Hedman's got the grits. Dougie don't. NHL is a grit league. not at the expense of skill, but in addition to the skill, grit is the NHL's differentiator.

Dougie might never have been in a fight off-ice in his life. he might never have even been in a heated argument. You need a well-managed dark space inside to compete at that level in the playoffs and Dougie does not have that. i fear he may become a less off-putting Dennis Wideman or Mike Green. ie. not ever going to be a true difference maker.

So you really expect Hamilton to sign for 3m per season? And are you really making it a point that he's probably never been in a real life fight? really?? That is not something to be proud of, I wasn't proud when my friend and I were jumped by 8 St Mary's kids and put in the hospital.

People need to realize that every year the cap landscape changes when the cap goes up and comparable players sign "bad" deals, for example how Orpik at 5.5m lead to Boychuk making 6m. There are so many more examples of this. The contracts are going to up every year. 5m now is not 5m 3-4 years ago. It's more like 7m now.

 

[ThorntonFightClub*]

Duncan Kieth, through 2023 at 5.5, dreams big dream.

Come on Doug!

Duncan Keith might be the most protected D in hockey.

He plays against 3rd lines and never draws the task of stopping someone.

Hjalmarsson-Oduya do the real heavy lifting for that team.

 

[Ice Nine]

Numbers don't lie...but everyone can lie with statistics by withholding some numbers and putting others in big bold caps.

For those who asked, here is Hamilton's Corsi breakdown with and without every player on the Bruins along with how much he played with player X: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1666&withagainst=true&season=2014-15&sit=5v5

He played 30% of the time with Bergeron and those two KILLED IT together, despite the fact they were being given a very low amount of offensive zone starts. Hamilton clearly had better stats when he played with Bergeron on the ice. Its also clear, that when Bergeron isn't on the ice the Bruins were A BAD TEAM LAST YEAR, and yet, Hamilton still had his Corsi above 50% w/o Bergeron.

This is one of my favorite Dougie charts: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...00&teamid=3&type=corsi&sort=TMPCT&sortdir=ASC

Only Bergeron increased his teammates Corsi more than Hamilton on the Bruins. When players played with Hamilton, their Corsi was 55%. Without Hamilton they are at 50%. When neither Bergeron or Hamilton were on the ice? Well. Hello Edmonton Oilers. And thats with Hamilton getting some of the hardest zone starts on the team (with Bergeron and Chara). He is an excellent driver of possession. Easy 1st pairing on a good team. At 21.

Where his season went down hill this year was how often the shots he gave up ended up in the net. For some reason, Hamilton (.906), Marchand (.902) and Bergeron (.895) just had some real bad luck with save % against while they were on the ice. Now, before the Dougie bashers use that save % as a demerit of Dougie...last year Dougie was 3rd in the NHL at .952...so it can't be luck one year and skill a different year.

Is Dougie ready to be your all situations #1? No. He needs some muscle and he makes mistakes in his own end at a higher rate than you would want. He is an average 2nd pairing D at shot suppression and a high end top pairing guy at shot generation. He is 21. If his progression goes poorly, he is at worst case Brent Burns or Yandle. I mean, he is those guys right now. Best case he is a multiple Norris winning Hall of Famer. No BS. What is most likely? Top 5 D in the NHL in his prime. You can win a Cup with one of those, and getting one of those for 6 to 7 a year is awesome, even if he is overpaid for 2 of 8 years. If he plateaus out and doesn't get any better? Well, paying 6 to 7 for a 2nd pairing offensive minded D-man isn't going to kill you either.

Just an excellent post all around.

 

[EverettMike]

Just an excellent post all around.

You undersold it.

 

[bp13]

Numbers don't lie...but everyone can lie with statistics by withholding some numbers and putting others in big bold caps.

For those who asked, here is Hamilton's Corsi breakdown with and without every player on the Bruins along with how much he played with player X: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1666&withagainst=true&season=2014-15&sit=5v5

He played 30% of the time with Bergeron and those two KILLED IT together, despite the fact they were being given a very low amount of offensive zone starts. Hamilton clearly had better stats when he played with Bergeron on the ice. Its also clear, that when Bergeron isn't on the ice the Bruins were A BAD TEAM LAST YEAR, and yet, Hamilton still had his Corsi above 50% w/o Bergeron.

This is one of my favorite Dougie charts: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...00&teamid=3&type=corsi&sort=TMPCT&sortdir=ASC

Only Bergeron increased his teammates Corsi more than Hamilton on the Bruins. When players played with Hamilton, their Corsi was 55%. Without Hamilton they are at 50%. When neither Bergeron or Hamilton were on the ice? Well. Hello Edmonton Oilers. And thats with Hamilton getting some of the hardest zone starts on the team (with Bergeron and Chara). He is an excellent driver of possession. Easy 1st pairing on a good team. At 21.

Where his season went down hill this year was how often the shots he gave up ended up in the net. For some reason, Hamilton (.906), Marchand (.902) and Bergeron (.895) just had some real bad luck with save % against while they were on the ice. Now, before the Dougie bashers use that save % as a demerit of Dougie...last year Dougie was 3rd in the NHL at .952...so it can't be luck one year and skill a different year.

Is Dougie ready to be your all situations #1? No. He needs some muscle and he makes mistakes in his own end at a higher rate than you would want. He is an average 2nd pairing D at shot suppression and a high end top pairing guy at shot generation. He is 21. If his progression goes poorly, he is at worst case Brent Burns or Yandle. I mean, he is those guys right now. Best case he is a multiple Norris winning Hall of Famer. No BS. What is most likely? Top 5 D in the NHL in his prime. You can win a Cup with one of those, and getting one of those for 6 to 7 a year is awesome, even if he is overpaid for 2 of 8 years. If he plateaus out and doesn't get any better? Well, paying 6 to 7 for a 2nd pairing offensive minded D-man isn't going to kill you either.

For anybody digging into these numbers at all, the CF% ReITM seems to be the key column to show the difference in Corsi between when this player is on the ice vs. when he isn't. Just as notable to me as Hamilton's great stats are Seidenberg's horrific ones. Seids is a -4.9%, 3% lower than anyone else. If our eyes didn't tell us how terrible he was last year, that stat proves it.

 

[Ice Nine]

You undersold it.

Probably... but then I can't tell if you're being sarcastic or not... ?

 

[EverettMike]

Probably... but then I can't tell if you're being sarcastic or not... ?

I've been keeping a list of everyone bad-mouthing Dougie.

 

[Ice Nine]

For anybody digging into these numbers at all, the CF% ReITM seems to be the key column to show the difference in Corsi between when this player is on the ice vs. when he isn't. Just as notable to me as Hamilton's great stats are Seidenberg's horrific ones. Seids is a -4.9%, 3% lower than anyone else. If our eyes didn't tell us how terrible he was last year, that stat proves it.

Seid is awful by these numbers. He literally makes almost everyone he plays with worse.

Before his injury, he wasn't this bad. Here is 2007-2011:

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=462&withagainst=true&season=2007-11&sit=5v5

But still, never a corsi heavyweight.

 

[Ice Nine]

I've been keeping a list of everyone bad-mouthing Dougie.

Noted.

And yeah, I undersold it. It was an outstanding post, really.

 

[Harry Lime]

Seid is awful by these numbers. He literally makes almost everyone he plays with worse.

Before his injury, he wasn't this bad. Here is 2007-2011:

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=462&withagainst=true&season=2007-11&sit=5v5

But still, never a corsi heavyweight.

Obviously, the Seguin trade was the biggest blunder Chia made in the 2013 off-season, but the Seidenberg extension is comes in a solid second place. Not only did it lock up a d-man who is pretty close to useless into his late 30s, which is harmful in its own right, it cost us the ability to retain Boychuk, who is actually good.

Honestly, Seidenberg's always been overrated to varying degrees, both by the local fans and media, and more importantly, by the team. As you said, even at his peak, he was never loved by the numbers. And during the lockout year, those numbers began to slip even further.

 

[Gordon Lightfoot]

if Hedman is being used as any sort of comparable, Dougie should come in at about 75% of Hedman's contract, imo.

Hedman's got the grits. Dougie don't. NHL is a grit league. not at the expense of skill, but in addition to the skill, grit is the NHL's differentiator.

Dougie might never have been in a fight off-ice in his life. he might never have even been in a heated argument. You need a well-managed dark space inside to compete at that level in the playoffs and Dougie does not have that. i fear he may become a less off-putting Dennis Wideman or Mike Green. ie. not ever going to be a true difference maker.

You can't be serious.

 

[Ice Nine]

Obviously, the Seguin trade was the biggest blunder Chia made in the 2013 off-season, but the Seidenberg extension is comes in a solid second place. Not only did it lock up a d-man who is pretty close to useless into his late 30s, which is harmful in its own right, it cost us the ability to retain Boychuk, who is actually good.

Honestly, Seidenberg's always been overrated to varying degrees, both by the local fans and media, and more importantly, by the team. As you said, even at his peak, he was never loved by the numbers. And during the lockout year, those numbers began to slip even further.

Serious question: do the Bruins have an analytics department? I always assumed we did. But... uh, you'd think if we did, we wouldn't make these sorts of mistakes. In 2012/13, Seguin was a corsi beast, contending with Bergeron for the best of the team.

 

[Harry Lime]

Serious question: do the Bruins have an analytics department? I always assumed we did. But... uh, you'd think if we did, we wouldn't make these sorts of mistakes. In 2012/13, Seguin was a corsi beast, contending with Bergeron for the best of the team.

Well, they hired this guy last June to the position of "Director of Hockey Operations/Analytics," but I don't know who had that position before, or if it even existed. If it did exist, they clearly didn't value whoever had the job's opinions. They did so many things over the last few years of Chia's reign that set off red flags from an analytics perspective: Trading Seguin instead of Krejci, who despite being "clutch" (you know, expect for all those years where he wasn't) has never been a great possession player, trading a supremely talented player like Seguin to begin with, extending Kelly into his mid 30s when forward production tends to peak in a player's late 20s, extending Seidenberg, keeping Paille around, and perhaps most damningly (even if it wasn't as relatively harmful as some other moves) keeping Campbell around even though, from a numbers point of view, he's been arguably the worst non-goon forward in the NHL over the past 2 seasons.

 

[ThorntonFightClub*]

Serious question: do the Bruins have an analytics department? I always assumed we did. But... uh, you'd think if we did, we wouldn't make these sorts of mistakes. In 2012/13, Seguin was a corsi beast, contending with Bergeron for the best of the team.

Contending with him? More like propped up by him. If we're going to knock Hamilton as being a product of Bergeron then what the heck do you call his winger?

Regarding Seidenberg, lots of disingenuous folks around here.

I remember people building shrines to the Chara-Seidenberg pair in 2011

All I heard in 2014 was "we can make a run if Seidenberg can come back"

I heard universal praise for his deal as being an extremely team friendly cap hit.

 

[Harry Lime]

Contending with him? More like propped up by him. If we're going to knock Hamilton as being a product of Bergeron then what the heck do you call his winger

Actually, Seguin was very impressive on his own right during his last two years here. If you look at his WOWY numbers during that time http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1351&withagainst=true&season=2011-13&sit=5v5 he was just as impressive without Bergeron as Bergeron was w/o him.

It's really unbelievable that they broke up the Marchand-Bergeron-Seguin line, which had been easily thier best line for the better part of 2 seasons, after 7 poor games against Toronto.

 

[Trap Jesus]

Seguin in Dallas is a completely different player than he was here. I feel like he's more of the one "driving" possession in Dallas now, whereas he was more of a passenger in Boston. Center vs. wing has something to do with it, but if you watched the MBS line for the two years they were together, you knew it was Bergeron and Marchand doing their thing and Seguin being the guy that looked to stretch the ice through the neutral zone or looked to get open in space more in the offensive zone. The guy did backcheck like crazy though.

 

[Ice Nine]

Contending with him? More like propped up by him. If we're going to knock Hamilton as being a product of Bergeron then what the heck do you call his winger?

Regarding Seidenberg, lots of disingenuous folks around here.

I remember people building shrines to the Chara-Seidenberg pair in 2011

All I heard in 2014 was "we can make a run if Seidenberg can come back"

I heard universal praise for his deal as being an extremely team friendly cap hit.

If you think this is true, you're not reading the Corsi stats right. In 2012/13, pretty much every player was better when playing with Seguin than without:

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1351&withagainst=true&season=2012-13&sit=5v5

On the ice together, Bergeron and Seguin were possession beasts (62 CF%) but when not on the ice together, they were both still very good with Seguin showing 54.5 CF% without Bergeron being actually marginally better than Bergy without Seguin (54.2). So much for that theory.

Anyways, I don't want to digress into another Seguin debate.

Let's return to Seids / Hamilton.

I don't know about hypocrisy, but who cares?

The numbers are pretty telling. Seids in 2014/15 was bad on D in ways Campbell was awful for us up front. That is the reality 2014/2015 and the contract we're now locked into.

People have long overrated Seids and underrated Hamilton, IMHO, at least in recent years.

 

[Salem13]

Duncan Keith might be the most protected D in hockey.

He plays against 3rd lines and never draws the task of stopping someone.

Hjalmarsson-Oduya do the real heavy lifting for that team.

The D man who led the team with 30:19 TOI in the final game of the Stanley Cup, LMAO.

Hjalmarsson-Oduya also had less time on ice than Seabrook.

 

[ODAAT]

Duncan Keith might be the most protected D in hockey.

He plays against 3rd lines and never draws the task of stopping someone.

Hjalmarsson-Oduya do the real heavy lifting for that team.

yes, all game long he plays against opponents 3rd liners only...what an absolutely inaccurate statement

sorry, guy is a beast and you`d be absolutely singing his praises on here if in a spoked B

 

[HuskyBruinPride]

Duncan Keith might be the most protected D in hockey.

He plays against 3rd lines and never draws the task of stopping someone.

Hjalmarsson-Oduya do the real heavy lifting for that team.

Keith is still an absolute beast. Arguably the best d-man in the game right now and a strong bet to make the HHOF.

 

[BruinDust]

Duncan Keith might be the most protected D in hockey.

He plays against 3rd lines and never draws the task of stopping someone.

Hjalmarsson-Oduya do the real heavy lifting for that team.

Yeah all 17 of the voters who unanimously voted Keith for the Conn Smythe mustn't have a clue. It was really Hjalmarsson and Oduya all along.

 

[ThorntonFightClub*]

The D man who led the team with 30:19 TOI in the final game of the Stanley Cup, LMAO.

Hjalmarsson-Oduya also had less time on ice than Seabrook.

Fact is Hjalmarsson-Oduya draw the toughest minutes and have for a few years now

http://somekindofninja.com/nhl/usag...el&yAxis=relQoc&update-filters=Update+Results

 

[wintersej]

Fact is Hjalmarsson-Oduya draw the toughest minutes and have for a few years now

http://somekindofninja.com/nhl/usag...el&yAxis=relQoc&update-filters=Update+Results

Keith is a beast. He also gets the offensive zone starts and the easier matchups. Saying he only plays against 3rd liners is a little hyperbolic, but he certainly gets put in the best position to succeed. Hjalmarsson does the hard defensive work.

I love how Chicago deploys Keith. Let the most offensively skilled D man do his thing.

In the short run, Hamilton would be a crap load better off if he got the Keith treatment...but...for his long term development the tough assignments now might make him better than Keith in the long run.

 

[Salem13]

Fact is Hjalmarsson-Oduya draw the toughest minutes and have for a few years now

http://somekindofninja.com/nhl/usag...el&yAxis=relQoc&update-filters=Update+Results

Yes, to a degree Hammer and Oduya get the tougher minutes, which is very skewed by the fact I could probably handle the minutes the bottom 2 D get.

To call that "the most protected D in hockey" is pure hyperbole when you look at just the TOI. Over 30 minutes in a 60 minute game, seriously?

Edit: If you said that about Timonen I'd sit down and talk about how lucky he is to be on that team.

 

[Randomtask68]

Haven't read the entire thread, but I'm wondering what posters think the Bruins should do if they allow Hamilton to be offer sheeted? Do you use part of the draft compensation in a trade for a more experienced top pairing defenseman?