The Athletic Don Granato has breathed life into the Sabres

[KeyserSoze81]

Those Sam comments are amazing.

If Granato stays, we could actually see a Jack/Sam combo in the top 6. Something many of us have wanted to see for some time.

The possibilities on the wings would be exciting with all the youth and Skinner.

As good as the Reinhart/Eichel duo was, Sam always deferred to Eichel. He's a cerebral player, but you could see some hesitation in him. Away from Eichel, Sam is able to dictate play more and utilize his skillset more. I love him at centre. But again, we've been wanting this for eternity.

 

[jc17]

I’m not sure what your point is. I wasn’t arguing we’re great defensively. Plus why would we expect a them to be better at suppressing chances against than when they were completely focused on it with Krueger.

What Granato is hoping for with the group he’s working with was the stat line after the first two periods against the Pens. (It changed in the 3rd) They had almost twice as much offensive zone time as we did. But we had twice as many rush chances and more overall scoring chances. We don’t really have the roster at the moment to expect much more.

Our d-group as a whole is not that good defensively. The only pair to realistically hope to win the chances battle is Dahlin/Joker. Only because they'd have the puck more not because of their play in our zone.

Whoops, meant to have quoted fezzy, whose original post I misread anyway

One of the things that has been on my mind is how bad the analytics still look, but watching the Sabres it 'feels' like there is serious improvement.

I took a closer look and noticed that we are allowing a serious amount of low danger shots recently, the table below is sorted by LDSA/60:

View attachment 424552

We lead the league by far in this category. I wonder if the opposition scouting report is stressing shooting from everywhere as much as possible, based on our goalies and their performance to date. This high volume shot strategy would drive the corsi and even the xG metrics down, but also explain why the Sabres seem more dangerous lately.

 

[2 others]

As good as the Reinhart/Eichel duo was, Sam always deferred to Eichel. He's a cerebral player, but you could see some hesitation in him. Away from Eichel, Sam is able to dictate play more and utilize his skillset more. I love him at centre. But again, we've been wanting this for eternity.

To be fair (to Bylsma), he was definitely slower in his first years than he is now.

 

[Royisgone]

Dean Evason and Sheldon Keefe are doing fine in their first full seasons after coming in as replacement coaches with no prior NHL head coaching experience. Granato's resume is comparable. It's not as if the Sabres brought in Matt Ellis or someone like Alain Nasreddine. The Devils have one win in their last 10 and have lost their last 5 straight under Lindy Ruff.

The question is not "can it be done?" The question is "how likely is it that Granato will get it done next season."

I think he's looked great and would not compare what he has done to lucky win streaks of the past with other coaches.

I also think way too much is discussed about raw "coaching" at the NHL level. These guys all have relatively short shelf lives and one competent coach is as good as the next.

Granato has shown himself to be a good coach; maybe we should keep him here until his luck wears out and the bloom comes off the rose.

Experienced, named head coaches will continue to be available to the Sabres down the road when it starts going pear shaped for Granato.

 

[brian_griffin]

What if Granato is just reading the message boards for his ideas?

Then hire him permanently. Such behavior clearly indicates his superior intellect.

Love this quote. Be prepared before the game. Then go out and play. Don’t worry about mistakes.

That is a great quote. Puts the emphasis explicitly on preparation.

One of the things that has been on my mind is how bad the analytics still look, but watching the Sabres it 'feels' like there is serious improvement.

I took a closer look and noticed that we are allowing a serious amount of low danger shots recently, the table below is sorted by LDSA/60:

View attachment 424552

We lead the league by far in this category. I wonder if the opposition scouting report is stressing shooting from everywhere as much as possible, based on our goalies and their performance to date. This high volume shot strategy would drive the corsi and even the xG metrics down, but also explain why the Sabres seem more dangerous lately.

Does that take into account score effects? Given the Sabres stronger performance since Granato took over, and the in-game leads the Sabres had, I would expect opponents might lean toward throwing more low-quality shots on net hoping for e.g., Hutton to let in a softie, vs. waiting patiently for a high-quality shot vs. e.g., Ullmark.

 

[joshjull]

You're 100% right about sample size. History shows teams do get a burst of energy after firing a head coach. There is very little pressure. I mean we should all remember Ron Rolston.

So yeah if we can land a top guy then do it, Bruce Boudreau would be great. However if the young players continue to respond to Granato then there are many reasons to move forward with him.

I agree its a small sample size with Granato and we can’t say for certain its proof he’d succeed next year.

But the Rolston comparisons to Granato don’t work very well for 4 reasons.

1) The enormous youth movement and the lineup reconfiguration we’ve seen under Granato. Its not just that he's playing a ton of youngsters but he’s also giving them key roles and they’re responding. Especially guys like Asplund, Tage. Mitts and Joker. Guys who were struggling to be relevant in the lineup before the coaching change.

2) Ryan Miller. Having him doesn’t guarantee anything. But he can help a roster bounce back after a tough start to the season. He started 24 of the 31 games Rolston coached as the interim HC. Granato has had Tokarski (9gms), Ullmark (7gms) and Hutton (1gm)

3) Coaching experience. Granato had 16 years of head coaching experience (USHL/ECHL/AHL/NTDP) and 4+ years as NHL assistant coach before getting the interim gig. Rolston was a college assistant coach for years with one head coaching stint (34gms with U17 NTDP) before getting the Amerks head coaching gig. At the end of his 2nd year with Amerks he took over as Sabres interim.

Granato has FAR more head coaching experience as well as time in the NHL compared to Rolston.

4) Plans for the following year. We had already started to tear down the roster with the intention of bottoming out in 13-14. Roslton wasn’t a good coach but the team he was coaching wasn’t very good either. Even under Nolan they had a .427 pts% before the trade deadline and the wheels fell off. I don’t see us looking to do that this offseason no matter who our coach is.



None of this means Granato will succeed. Its just to show there really isn’t that much in common between the circumstances other than the duration of time.

 

[joshjull]

Its worth pointing out that whatever Granato does down the stretch. It will be done with.......

1) A goalie tandem of NHL nobodies. Tokarski who is a 31yr old career AHLer. UPL who is a prospect with promise but still needs work.

2) Already working with a ton of youth and will likely be rotating in even more.


If he can pull off .500 or better with what he’s working with and who we’ll be playing. That will be impressive.

 

[OkimLom]

The results of seeing the players enjoying the game again and really working their A** off every game, coupled with coaching adjustments actually taking place, alone, has Don sliding up as my 4th preferred choice for long term Head Coach.

It's not that I don't think he would be bad, I just think that there are better options out there.

I wouldn't be mad if he got the job long term.

 

[Sabre Dance]

I agree its a small sample size with Granato and we can’t say for certain its proof he’d succeed next year.

But the Rolston comparisons to Granato don’t work very well for 4 reasons.

1) The enormous youth movement and the lineup reconfiguration we’ve seen under Granato. Its not just that he's playing a ton of youngsters but he’s also giving them key roles and they’re responding. Especially guys like Asplund, Tage. Mitts and Joker. Guys who were struggling to be relevant in the lineup before the coaching change.

2) Ryan Miller. Having him doesn’t guarantee anything. But he can help a roster bounce back after a tough start to the season. He started 24 of the 31 games Rolston coached as the interim HC. Granato has had Tokarski (9gms), Ullmark (7gms) and Hutton (1gm)

3) Coaching experience. Granato had 16 years of head coaching experience (USHL/ECHL/AHL/NTDP) and 4+ years as NHL assistant coach before getting the interim gig. Rolston was a college assistant coach for years with one head coaching stint (34gms with U17 NTDP) before getting the Amerks head coaching gig. At the end of his 2nd year with Amerks he took over as Sabres interim.

Granato has FAR more head coaching experience as well as time in the NHL compared to Rolston.

4) Plans for the following year. We had already started to tear down the roster with the intention of bottoming out in 13-14. Roslton wasn’t a good coach but the team he was coaching wasn’t very good either. Even under Nolan they had a .427 pts% before the trade deadline and the wheels fell off. I don’t see us looking to do that this offseason no matter who our coach is.



None of this means Granato will succeed. Its just to show there really isn’t that much in common between the circumstances other than the duration of time.

I agree. It'll play itself out. Sabres would be dumb to replace Granato if the young players continue to respond to him.

 

[elchud]

He is stealing the coaching job. Gran-theft-ato

 

[UnleashRasmus]

You basically have to hire him at this point.

Without Jack, and our better goalie, we're still pushing.

 

[WeDislikeEich]

I’m still not 100% ready to say I want Granato to get the job. He’s definitely winning me over more and more with each game/interview. But I’ve been fooled before by new Sabres coaches before so I’m trying to take a more patient approach (not that it matters what I think anyway).

But If for some reason Granato doesn’t get the job, I wonder if he (and the Sabres) would have any interest in making him the head coach in Rochester? assuming he doesn’t get another NHL head coaching job.

 

[tsujimoto74]

Without Jack, and our better goalie, we're still pushing.

And with no playoff hopes. These guys are still out there playing their best hockey of the season by far (well, except Risto, who was definitely much better at the beginning of the season under Krueger and before covid).

 

[SackTastic]

One of the things that has been on my mind is how bad the analytics still look, but watching the Sabres it 'feels' like there is serious improvement.

I took a closer look and noticed that we are allowing a serious amount of low danger shots recently, the table below is sorted by LDSA/60:

View attachment 424552

We lead the league by far in this category. I wonder if the opposition scouting report is stressing shooting from everywhere as much as possible, based on our goalies and their performance to date. This high volume shot strategy would drive the corsi and even the xG metrics down, but also explain why the Sabres seem more dangerous lately.

1. You are doing the right thing by looking at the numbers in context.
2. A large portion of hockey statistics are still basically made up from "I think this idea makes sense" and haven't been fully fleshed out to prove/disprove theories. Don't treat them as the bible.

 

[TheDawnOfANewTage]

He is stealing the coaching job. Gran-theft-ato

Ps- There’s some weird emojis on here.

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

The Granato hype is getting nutty. For sure, he's better but what brains did it take to bench Eakins, Irwin and start playing young kids? Kevyn Adams should own a big part of this year. People want to hand Granato the keys long-term for team playing really well for 10 games. Sabres typical reaction. Slow it down. Still so much wrong with this team from goalies to bad contracts.

 

[Fjordy]

The Granato hype is getting nutty. For sure, he's better but what brains did it take to bench Eakins, Irwin and start playing young kids? Kevyn Adams should own a big part of this year. People want to hand Granato the keys long-term for team playing really well for 10 games. Sabres typical reaction. Slow it down. Still so much wrong with this team from goalies to bad contracts.

You just have to understand that it can always be worse. No one can guarantee that if Tortorella is the next coach for example and everything goes well, things could be much worse.

 

[BananaSquad]

The Granato hype is getting nutty. For sure, he's better but what brains did it take to bench Eakins, Irwin and start playing young kids? Kevyn Adams should own a big part of this year. People want to hand Granato the keys long-term for team playing really well for 10 games. Sabres typical reaction. Slow it down. Still so much wrong with this team from goalies to bad contracts.

The Mittlestadt development alone earns him the job.

 

[jputt99]

There's no reason for Adams to make a decision on HC yet . Allow Donnie G to finish out the season and then talk with your players . Adams probably already as an idea of what he wants to do . As for me , there's no denying Granato has this team going in the right direction . He deserves a shot at head coach .

 

[Buffaloed]

I thought Granato was just a dull paint-by-numbers, behind the scenes, unassuming role player. Then it takes over and it's like who is this guy?

 

[Washed Up 29YearOld]

Every great head coach has had 0 games of experience at some point. If the Sabres finish at a playoff pace after being a blight to the sport of hockey, that's a miracle in itself and how could you not keep him.

 

[TehDoak]

I wouldn't put too much stock in the post Krueger coaching. Granato has exactly nothing to lose by feeding youngsters ice time and freeing them shackles of a restrictive system. You ever see the Seinfeld episode where George just does the opposite of his natural instinct, he gets the girl, gets a job with the yankees, etc? That is pretty much Granato right now, he's simply thinking "Well what would Ralph do" and doing the opposite.

I think there is too much at risk next season to go with another rookie head coach. Unless the plan is to trade Eichel this summer for a bounty of futures, than it doesn't really matter who we have as a head coach because we'd be rebuilding again.

 

[Jim Bob]

I wouldn't put too much stock in the post Krueger coaching. Granato has exactly nothing to lose by feeding youngsters ice time and freeing them shackles of a restrictive system. You ever see the Seinfeld episode where George just does the opposite of his natural instinct, he gets the girl, gets a job with the yankees, etc? That is pretty much Granato right now, he's simply thinking "Well what would Ralph do" and doing the opposite.

I think there is too much at risk next season to go with another rookie head coach. Unless the plan is to trade Eichel this summer for a bounty of futures, than it doesn't really matter who we have as a head coach because we'd be rebuilding again.

I think that is being too dismissive of Granato.

I am not in the "Give Granato the job right ****ing now!" boat. But, I also believe that he has earned the right to be a legit candidate when they do a full search after the season.

Granato has been Eichel's head coach before. So, that might be viewed as a positive if they want to try and keep Jack happy.

 

[Buffaloed]

I wouldn't put too much stock in the post Krueger coaching. Granato has exactly nothing to lose by feeding youngsters ice time and freeing them shackles of a restrictive system. You ever see the Seinfeld episode where George just does the opposite of his natural instinct, he gets the girl, gets a job with the yankees, etc? That is pretty much Granato right now, he's simply thinking "Well what would Ralph do" and doing the opposite.

I think there is too much at risk next season to go with another rookie head coach. Unless the plan is to trade Eichel this summer for a bounty of futures, than it doesn't really matter who we have as a head coach because we'd be rebuilding again.

What did Krueger have to lose by giving the youngsters ice time and making the system less restrictive?

 

[TehDoak]

I think that is being too dismissive of Granato.

I am not in the "Give Granato the job right ****ing now!" boat. But, I also believe that he has earned the right to be a legit candidate when they do a full search after the season.

Granato has been Eichel's head coach before. So, that might be viewed as a positive if they want to try and keep Jack happy.

It IS being dismissive of him because it would be impossible to look at 28 games of a lost season and think its indicative of his NHL coaching resume, even if they went 0-28-0. Given injuries, covid, the streak....I don't think there is much you can take away from this year when evaluating the coach.

I have no issue with interviewing him, but I think you should probably set the results of this season aside and weigh him on the strength of his resume before coming to the team when compared to the other candidates. I don't think he will stack up well.