Does this team make the playoffs?

[sureWhyNot]

There's very few similarities between the Leafs and Wings.

True. We're both bad. Biggest diff is they have a brighter future.

 

[jkutswings]

There's very few similarities between the Leafs and Wings.

Only if you mean that one team is on the way up, and the other is on the way down.

While Detroit has definitely had more success over the last couple of decades, the two franchises today are both clearly outside contention. The only difference is that one has young high end talent that might put them in the conversation in the next few years, while the other hasn't even hit bottom yet.

 

[Claypool]

Only if you mean that one team is on the way up, and the other is on the way down.

While Detroit has definitely had more success over the last couple of decades, the two franchises today are both clearly outside contention. The only difference is that one has young high end talent that might put them in the conversation in the next few years, while the other hasn't even hit bottom yet.

Meh, for the longest time everyone said the same thing about the Oilers. They basically went through two rebuilds since 07. They'll soon be in cap trouble and I'm not so sure their team is any good.

Remember when the Avs were a young, up and coming team? Looks like they're about to go through another rebuild. All those top picks didn't work.

I guess what I'm saying is let's pump the breaks a bit on the Leafs. They still have a lot of work to do.

 

[avssuc]

Meh, for the longest time everyone said the same thing about the Oilers. They basically went through two rebuilds since 07. They'll soon be in cap trouble and I'm not so sure their team is any good.

Remember when the Avs were a young, up and coming team? Looks like they're about to go through another rebuild. All those top picks didn't work.

I guess what I'm saying is let's pump the breaks a bit on the Leafs. They still have a lot of work to do.

I have no problem agreeing with stemming the Toronto hype. I only become indifferent only when it becomes a defense of the way things are being managed here.

The salary cap makes teams deal with probability. Since the chance of pulling HoF players out of the draft in the later rounds is now much more difficult, the second major advantage of the Wings teams of the past (1990s-2010) is now gone. The reality now states that teams can't corner the market on locality scouting and they cant buy players from small market teams, so there needs to be periods mediocrity to achieve success. Simple market economics.

The Wings could change in hopes to win again within the next decade, or keep up with the current BS... and generate positive revenue until the new car smell wears off the Pizza Palace, and people say F this ****, lets wait until the Pistons play tomorrow night.

 

[Go Wings]

Nothing lasts forever but the earth and sky.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Meh, for the longest time everyone said the same thing about the Oilers. They basically went through two rebuilds since 07. They'll soon be in cap trouble and I'm not so sure their team is any good.

Remember when the Avs were a young, up and coming team? Looks like they're about to go through another rebuild. All those top picks didn't work.

I guess what I'm saying is let's pump the breaks a bit on the Leafs. They still have a lot of work to do.

The Leafs analogy was more meant as they refused to rebuild for years even after the window to win with Sundin was long gone.

Detroit is in a similar spot with the Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Kronwall window long gone.

Toronto refused for years to admit that they needed an aggressive rebuild. In reality all they did was delay the inevitable. Detroit refusing to rebuild is also just delaying the inevitable.

If the Wings are aggressive they can make this around a 5 year rebuild. If they continue to make moves to try and be competitive like signing an old Nielsen to a long term deal, trading down in the 1st round to unload Datsyuk, etc. this will be closer to a 10 year rebuild.

If you don't like the Leafs analogy then insert Vancouver (Sedins window long gone).

The rebuild should start this trade deadline!

 

[Pavels Dog]

True. We're both bad. Biggest diff is they have a brighter future.

Only if you mean that one team is on the way up, and the other is on the way down.

While Detroit has definitely had more success over the last couple of decades, the two franchises today are both clearly outside contention. The only difference is that one has young high end talent that might put them in the conversation in the next few years, while the other hasn't even hit bottom yet.

Was replying to the idea that the Wings can be compared to the Leafs prior to their scorched earth tank. Leafs were the product of a ton of trades, many of them bad and extremely shortsighted (trading two high 1st round picks is different from trading Janmark and Backman for a rental), they had poor drafting and development, no veteran leadership, a questionable culture with a lot of bad apples, an extremely hostile media and fan environment and generally were just a mess top to bottom.
There's a reason they had to tear it down and completely rebuild their organization.

Wings need to add 1-2 elite talents, but going scorched earth is not the right approach for us.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

What does scorched earth really mean?

We don't need to do that but we do need to move out some salary anf players for picks and prospects and accept finishing bottom 6 this year, bottom 8 next year and bottom 12 the year after that.

If we can do that while maintaining some of our vets (zetts, kroner,nielsen) we should be looking more at 5 years than 10.

 

[Shaman464]

Was replying to the idea that the Wings can be compared to the Leafs prior to their scorched earth tank. Leafs were the product of a ton of trades, many of them bad and extremely shortsighted (trading two high 1st round picks is different from trading Janmark and Backman for a rental), they had poor drafting and development, no veteran leadership, a questionable culture with a lot of bad apples, an extremely hostile media and fan environment and generally were just a mess top to bottom.
There's a reason they had to tear it down and completely rebuild their organization.

Wings need to add 1-2 elite talents, but going scorched earth is not the right approach for us.

They need 2-3 elite talents. They still need one center and two defensemen at minimum to fill out the top of the team. The odds of drafting all of those without going bottom basement is low.

 

[The Zermanator]

Meh, for the longest time everyone said the same thing about the Oilers. They basically went through two rebuilds since 07. They'll soon be in cap trouble and I'm not so sure their team is any good.

Remember when the Avs were a young, up and coming team? Looks like they're about to go through another rebuild. All those top picks didn't work.

I guess what I'm saying is let's pump the breaks a bit on the Leafs. They still have a lot of work to do.

The fact that these are the teams we're judging the Wings against now speaks volumes. Who cares who's better when they're all near the bottom?

Obviously this team needs a change of direction, and that starts with management.

 

[smurfyeah19]

We need to get healthy but I think we do. I really like the addition of Sproul to our back end

 

[Claypool]

The Leafs analogy was more meant as they refused to rebuild for years even after the window to win with Sundin was long gone.

Detroit is in a similar spot with the Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Kronwall window long gone.

Toronto refused for years to admit that they needed an aggressive rebuild. In reality all they did was delay the inevitable. Detroit refusing to rebuild is also just delaying the inevitable.

If the Wings are aggressive they can make this around a 5 year rebuild. If they continue to make moves to try and be competitive like signing an old Nielsen to a long term deal, trading down in the 1st round to unload Datsyuk, etc. this will be closer to a 10 year rebuild.

If you don't like the Leafs analogy then insert Vancouver (Sedins window long gone).

The rebuild should start this trade deadline!

Ok, and I'll point you, again, to the Colorado Avalanche, Arizona Coyotes, Buffalo Sabres, or New York Islanders that did blow it up and still suck. I'll even throw the Florida Panthers and Carolina Hurricanes in there. Sometimes when you suck you just never make it back out. There's no guarantee either way. Why the hell anyone thinks Ken Holland would decided to start tanking is beyond me. Of course he's going to try to keep winning while getting younger.

 

[Pavels Dog]

The Leafs analogy was more meant as they refused to rebuild for years even after the window to win with Sundin was long gone.

Detroit is in a similar spot with the Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Kronwall window long gone.

Toronto refused for years to admit that they needed an aggressive rebuild. In reality all they did was delay the inevitable. Detroit refusing to rebuild is also just delaying the inevitable.

If the Wings are aggressive they can make this around a 5 year rebuild. If they continue to make moves to try and be competitive like signing an old Nielsen to a long term deal, trading down in the 1st round to unload Datsyuk, etc. this will be closer to a 10 year rebuild.

If you don't like the Leafs analogy then insert Vancouver (Sedins window long gone).

The rebuild should start this trade deadline!

Difference is the Leafs did things like trade two 1st round picks for Kessel instead of rebuilding organically. They also traded Steen away. Imagine, they could have had Seguin-Steen on their top line the last few years.
Vancouver has also made some questionable trades. Neither team drafted well at all in the later rounds either, and neither had any sort of winning culture to build upon and pass on to their younger players.

Who was Toronto's Mrazek/Mantha/Larkin/AA/Nyquist/Tatar during their years of not accepting a rebuild? Who was their Zetterberg and Kronwall? Who is the equivalent young talent on Vancouver?

Nothing really indicates that Holland will go all-in this season to make the playoffs. He's just never going to go all-in for a top 3 draft pick.

They need 2-3 elite talents. They still need one center and two defensemen at minimum to fill out the top of the team. The odds of drafting all of those without going bottom basement is low.

For our future, best thing that could happen may be that we just suck this year and/or next and get good draft picks. Maybe.
But I maintain what I've said before, it will happen as a natural thing. If our current batch of kids aren't good enough, we will suck.
If we get a top 10 pick, so be it. But chasing it? I don't think that's the right move for us.

By all accounts, there isn't even a talent in this year's draft good enough to be that 'sure thing' elite player to build around. They rarely appear. And even when you think you have one, you may not. Ekblad sucks this year. And he's one of the most sure thing d-men drafted in ages. What really says that Cholowski at #20 is worse than Sergachev or Juolevi in the top 10? What says that Hronek can't be one of the best d-men of that draft?

 

[Shaman464]

Difference is the Leafs did things like trade two 1st round picks for Kessel instead of rebuilding organically. They also traded Steen away. Imagine, they could have had Seguin-Steen on their top line the last few years.
Vancouver has also made some questionable trades. Neither team drafted well at all in the later rounds either, and neither had any sort of winning culture to build upon and pass on to their younger players.

Who was Toronto's Mrazek/Mantha/Larkin/AA/Nyquist/Tatar during their years of not accepting a rebuild? Who was their Zetterberg and Kronwall? Who is the equivalent young talent on Vancouver?

Nothing really indicates that Holland will go all-in this season to make the playoffs. He's just never going to go all-in for a top 3 draft pick.


For our future, best thing that could happen may be that we just suck this year and/or next and get good draft picks. Maybe.
But I maintain what I've said before, it will happen as a natural thing. If our current batch of kids aren't good enough, we will suck.
If we get a top 10 pick, so be it. But chasing it? I don't think that's the right move for us.

By all accounts, there isn't even a talent in this year's draft good enough to be that 'sure thing' elite player to build around. They rarely appear. And even when you think you have one, you may not. Ekblad sucks this year. And he's one of the most sure thing d-men drafted in ages. What really says that Cholowski at #20 is worse than Sergachev or Juolevi in the top 10? What says that Hronek can't be one of the best d-men of that draft?

19 organizations that pay people millions of dollars a year to decide that some players are better than others? It's not perfect and people surprise you, but the odds are not in your favor.

 

[Frk It]

Wings need to add 1-2 elite talents, but going scorched earth is not the right approach for us.

Sounds great. But not sure that adds up.

 

[Pavels Dog]

19 organizations that pay people millions of dollars a year to decide that some players are better than others? It's not perfect and people surprise you, but the odds are not in your favor.

Yeah but that's at the draft. Draft position starts mattering less and less as time goes on. And the difference between someone picked around 5-10 and someone picked #20 isn't necessarily huge, organizations can rank these guy very differently. We know Arizona had Chychrun in the top 10, and we know the Wings saw Hronek as a 1st round talent. Scouts are good, but it's extremely difficult to accurately assess where players stand in relation to eachother when they're playing in different leagues and situations and sometimes different continents.

For what it's worth, compare Hronek's stats in the OHL to those top d-men of the draft.

Juolevi : 22GP, 5+11=16p
Sergachev: 12GP, 0+8=8p
Hronek: 23GP, 4+16=20p

 

[Nauzhror]

I think so long as Mantha stays in the NHL for the remainder of the season, they have a chance.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Difference is the Leafs did things like trade two 1st round picks for Kessel instead of rebuilding organically. They also traded Steen away. Imagine, they could have had Seguin-Steen on their top line the last few years.
Vancouver has also made some questionable trades. Neither team drafted well at all in the later rounds either, and neither had any sort of winning culture to build upon and pass on to their younger players.

Who was Toronto's Mrazek/Mantha/Larkin/AA/Nyquist/Tatar during their years of not accepting a rebuild? Who was their Zetterberg and Kronwall? Who is the equivalent young talent on Vancouver?

Toronto definitely made a boatload of errors to set themselves back. Getting the rebuild message far too late was a major part of the issue.

However, towards the end of the Sundin era did have Stajan, Wellwood, White, Steen (until dealing him in 08-09). These guys were are all young and had some good seasons. They also had Antropov & Ponikarovsky who were in the Nyqist/Tatar age range and productive NHLers. I expect you'll mock some of those names cause hindsight is 20/20 for what they became.

Toronto also had Sundin, Kaberle, McCabe, Tucker, Kubina as vets. The Leafs got the message far too late to strip the team down, take a step back by getting max value for a few guys and start building at the draft again.

Signing a 32 year old Nielsen to a 6 year deal to me is equivalent to a Jason Blake/Pavel Kubina just trying to hang on type of deal. Moves like dealing for David Legwand & Erik Cole at the deadline are the types of moves the Leafs did that contribute to bleeding an organization of assets.

Detroit has some nice young pieces but anyway you want to slice it, Detroit is in trouble for multiple seasons. Much like the last few years of the Sundin era they're just good enough to not quite make the playoffs or if they get really lucky just grab the 8th seed. But they're headed nowhere for a while. Detroit is capped out with multiple bad contracts. Need multiple top end building pieces that are usually acquired at the top of the draft. Then they need to wait on those players.

Vanek and Smith should be dealt at the deadline for whatever futures they can get.

Green should be dealt and would bring back a good return.

Nyqist is a 27 year old support player in his prime but by the time the Wings turn this around he'll be headed out of his prime (potentially out of the league) and they'll have wasted his value.

 

[jkutswings]

Ok, and I'll point you, again, to the Colorado Avalanche, Arizona Coyotes, Buffalo Sabres, or New York Islanders that did blow it up and still suck. I'll even throw the Florida Panthers and Carolina Hurricanes in there. Sometimes when you suck you just never make it back out. There's no guarantee either way. Why the hell anyone thinks Ken Holland would decided to start tanking is beyond me. Of course he's going to try to keep winning while getting younger.

Saying that rebuilding has low odds of success does not in any way mean that the current approach is any more likely to eventually bring another championship.

Ken Holland wants to stay the course because the front office is tremendously risk averse, and they're going into a new building next year, and they just want the easy money of selling short-term regular season tickets, with a chance at a couple of home playoff games. But the long-term results will be the same, with talent declining until they miss the playoffs, and fan support starts dropping.

A rebuild MIGHT flop, or MIGHT work. If it flops, you're stuck for several years, before you can try again. If it works, you have a collection of cheap young talent with a shot to do some real damage.

The current approach has exactly zero MIGHTS about it. It WILL continue to yield a slow decline, with no spectacular failures or phenomenal successes, and it WILL eventually result in some sort of a rebuild, but with 5-10 years wasted on meaningless early exits and assets lost to retirement or free agency, instead of using them to hasten a new and worthwhile core.

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

People always try to take away from proper rebuilds by pointing at teams with terrible front offices. Do we really need to illustrate how poorly run the Oilers were top to bottom before the summer of McDavid? Or how poorly ran the Aves were under Sakic and especially coach Roy? Tanking and starting over isn't a guaranteed, no, but you need to have competent staff to make it work. Of course, the train of thought then takes us to the question of whether or not we have a competent enough staff to execute one, and, well, the answer is not very likely.

 

[Frk It]

Ok, and I'll point you, again, to the Colorado Avalanche, Arizona Coyotes, Buffalo Sabres, or New York Islanders that did blow it up and still suck. I'll even throw the Florida Panthers and Carolina Hurricanes in there. Sometimes when you suck you just never make it back out. There's no guarantee either way. Why the hell anyone thinks Ken Holland would decided to start tanking is beyond me. Of course he's going to try to keep winning while getting younger.

We're not a cap floor team like Carolina or Arizona. Florida had more points than us last year. Islanders made it farther in the playoffs than us last year.

Avs are bad (and have bad management), I'll give you that. Buffalo had to start the first 1/4 of the season without Eichel, but they have a pretty good young core.

 

[Nauzhror]

Vanek and Smith should be dealt at the deadline for whatever futures they can get.

Green should be dealt and would bring back a good return.

Nyqist is a 27 year old support player in his prime but by the time the Wings turn this around he'll be headed out of his prime (potentially out of the league) and they'll have wasted his value.

Ultimately, the goal of hockey is to sell tickets, and fill the arena. The **** you're suggesting would make games abysmal to watch, and likely result in ticket sales dropping.

Vanek and Green have been our two best players this year.

 

[TheMule93]

Ultimately, the goal of hockey is to sell tickets, and fill the arena. The **** you're suggesting would make games abysmal to watch, and likely result in ticket sales dropping.

Vanek and Green have been our two best players this year.

Well the ticket sales are gonna drop anyway with the team on continual decline. We're going to have to rebuild eventually. Why wait?

 

[Mount Suribachi]

Vanek and Green have been our two best players this year.

Yep, both should net us a first at the trade deadline, and a decent prospect or two

 

[Pavels Dog]

Toronto definitely made a boatload of errors to set themselves back. Getting the rebuild message far too late was a major part of the issue.

However, towards the end of the Sundin era did have Stajan, Wellwood, White, Steen (until dealing him in 08-09). These guys were are all young and had some good seasons. They also had Antropov & Ponikarovsky who were in the Nyqist/Tatar age range and productive NHLers. I expect you'll mock some of those names cause hindsight is 20/20 for what they became.

Toronto also had Sundin, Kaberle, McCabe, Tucker, Kubina as vets. The Leafs got the message far too late to strip the team down, take a step back by getting max value for a few guys and start building at the draft again.

Signing a 32 year old Nielsen to a 6 year deal to me is equivalent to a Jason Blake/Pavel Kubina just trying to hang on type of deal. Moves like dealing for David Legwand & Erik Cole at the deadline are the types of moves the Leafs did that contribute to bleeding an organization of assets.

Detroit has some nice young pieces but anyway you want to slice it, Detroit is in trouble for multiple seasons. Much like the last few years of the Sundin era they're just good enough to not quite make the playoffs or if they get really lucky just grab the 8th seed. But they're headed nowhere for a while. Detroit is capped out with multiple bad contracts. Need multiple top end building pieces that are usually acquired at the top of the draft. Then they need to wait on those players.

Vanek and Smith should be dealt at the deadline for whatever futures they can get.

Green should be dealt and would bring back a good return.

Nyqist is a 27 year old support player in his prime but by the time the Wings turn this around he'll be headed out of his prime (potentially out of the league) and they'll have wasted his value.

Yeah I still don't see it with the comparison. Leafs had no winning culture, they hadn't won a cup in ages. Sundin was it when it comes to great veteran presence, but he had no one to pass his influence onto. There was no Larkin, no Mantha, no Mrazek. Some players on the Wings may be somewhat comparable to players the Leafs had, but the differences are obvious if you look closer. Most players on the Wings have been carefully developed, they have excellent work ethic and pay attention defensively. Leafs were a tire-fire of questionable work ethic with nothing holding it all together.
Leafs rebuild wasn't just a matter of trying to add some talent. It was an attempt to completely demolish what came before. To tear down the culture of losing and build something new. They had awful drafting, couldn't develop players at all, were wildly swinging in the trade and FA markets. This isn't the Wings at all.

If we are out of the playoffs by a lot when the deadline comes along, I fully agree with trading Vanek/Smith (Smith could be traded right now for all I care) and maybe more. But we're not there yet.

This guy:

has only played 11 games so far. And the team has been significantly better when he's played. Add Athanasiou and Helm to the lower lines and you may start seeing an improvement to this team, even with a clueless coach.