Does this team make the playoffs?

[TheMule93]

The only way we contend again w/o top 5 picks is if

1) Larkin and Mantha turn into elite players

2) We somehow sign Karlsson when his contract is up

If #1 happens I think our chances of #2 happening go up a lot, as that's the only way we could possibly lure him here (plus the Swedish mafia), but the chances of that happening are almost 0, especially by the time Karlsson hits UFA status. Even if Karlsson wanted to come here, we'd have no cap room for his (deserved) $10m+ contract due to Hollands horrible roster mismanagement.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Which one of these players are #1 centers or #1 defenseman?

If ANYTHING, the fact that Datsyuk and Z were drafted all of 15-16 years ago... it should make us be very realistic that we are unlikely to find a player of that caliber again without the benefit of a top 5-10 pick

So like other organizations?

 

[Ezekial]

Belly might be the GOAT coach, he's definitely the best current coach, he's also the GM. Coaching in an NFL game has more of an impact than coaching in any other sport - not just on gameday (which already puts it over the edge) the preparation is way more extensive.

Comparing the Patriots and the NFL draft to an NHL team and the NFL draft is just bonkers, not even in the same universe.

Throw in the elite QB..... don't even think about it. Look at the Packers GM/QB, Ron Wolfe and Favre to Ted Thompson and Favre/Rodgers. The NFL is an entirely different animal. The hockey goalie position is, imo, the hardest position in sports - followed closely by the QB, the most important position in sports

 

[Frk It]

So like other organizations?

Explain... Because I can't think of another organization in the league in the same situation as the Wings. They have ALL had top 5 or too 10 picks since we drafted those two. All except us.

 

[Reddwit]

look at the NFL patriots. Year in and year out on top and yet still draft good. There is nothing unrealistic about wanting competition drafts and now we have a glut of NHL players from Grand Rapids. So why the gap?

Drafting in the NFL and NHL is nothing alike. Even just looking at age, you're removing a huge period of variability by drafting at ~21 versus ~18.

 

[Reddwit]

So like other organizations?

So then what is your argument (I'm coming into this debate late)? You say the Wings have done quite well for where they've drafted but that they'll ultimately end up just like any other organization. Where are you going with this?

 

[Bench]

Drafting in the NFL and NHL is nothing alike. Even just looking at age, you're removing a huge period of variability by drafting at ~21 versus ~18.

NFL coaching is also probably the most important coach in all of pro sports. He clears every single play run from top to bottom. NHL players are like jazz musicians, they need to improvise most of their routine based around a central theme. NFL is a chess match of back and forth strategy between schemes that allows you to have very specialized players for very specialized plays. Usually only one player, the QB, will make any significant changes on the fly.

Belichick is the best in the game at this. Plus he has a star QB, a position way more important than any single NHL position. So that's why the Patriots are awesome for so long.

 

[ap3x]

Like I said in another post, the blood, sweat and money poured into it will make anyone directly involved want to keep it going for as long as possible. It's a great source of pride for fans and organization alike and the hockey world keeps talking about it year after year. It's reached the status of legacy as much as winning any single Cup, maybe even more so. Hate or dismiss it all you want, but it's true.

As much as I love to be in the playoffs, I'm afraid we became more of a laughing stock lately. Streak itself is pretty nice & admirable. How we got in & bounced in the first in the last three years wasn't that impressive anymore, though. That cost us in terms of reputation. Ask around & I'd be surprised if most of other fanbases still got lots of respect for our most recent playoff appearances.

That playoff run vs. the Bruins still gets me the creeps, they tossed & kicked us around just like they wanted. First match-up vs. the Bolts admittedly close & we should have won it. But - despite some better moments here and there - last playoffs back to normal, losing it in 5 again. And how we qualified for those was also pretty embarrassing, benefiting from the incapability of others.

That being said, considering

1) how deep the draft is this year

2) it is the last season at the JLA &

3) I'm in Detroit around playoff time next year,

I'd like us to sneak in one last time before getting us some nice draft picks from next season on.

 

[Claypool]

As much as I love to be in the playoffs, I'm afraid we became more of a laughing stock lately. Streak itself is pretty nice & admirable. How we got in & bounced in the first in the last three years wasn't that impressive anymore, though. That cost us in terms of reputation. Ask around & I'd be surprised if most of other fanbases still got lots of respect for our most recent playoff appearances.

That playoff run vs. the Bruins still gets me the creeps, they tossed & kicked us around just like they wanted. First match-up vs. the Bolts admittedly close & we should have won it. But - despite some better moments here and there - last playoffs back to normal, losing it in 5 again. And how we qualified for those was also pretty embarrassing, benefiting from the incapability of others.

That being said, considering

1) how deep the draft is this year

2) it is the last season at the JLA &

3) I'm in Detroit around playoff time next year,

I'd like us to sneak in one last time before getting us some nice draft picks from next season on.

This team has had far more embarrassing playoff performances over the past 25 years than the last three series' against Tampa and Boston. San Jose in '94, Colorado in '99, Los Angeles in 2001, Calgary in 2003, Edmonton in 2006, and Nashville 2012 are far worse playoff failures than than these more recent ones.

 

[ap3x]

I didn't argue about that. There's a negative trend right now, though. Just a matter of time until we completely miss the playoffs, instead of barely limping in.

 

[njx9]

Huh?

Wings fans were just absolutely spoiled with getting HOF worthy guys in Datsyuk + Zetterberg in back to back drafts in the later rounds then following it up with Kronwall.

The expectations are now just unrealistic.

Wings drafting been just fine with what they've had to work with.

I have no idea why you quoted me. I said we can't draft elite players, and because of that, we're spoiled? Our drafting has been just fine, when other teams have consistently found better players after our picks? Please try again, and this time maybe actually make some vague attempt to address something I actually said.

15 years is being unfair. About 10 of those years we were top contenders and barely had any 1st round picks, and when we did they were in the 20-30 range.

Mantha, Larkin, Svechnikov and Cholowski are some of the earliest draft picks we've had in 30 years. We'll get another in the 2017 draft, propably #16-17 at the latest and #5-10 at the earliest. Likely same thing in the 2018 draft.

Also wasn't a big chunk of the scouting team replaced?

*shrug* Other teams consistently found players after our draft slots that were higher quality than the guys we picked. When was the scouting team replaced? If it was incrementally over a period of time, it doesn't seem to have worked. If it was wholesale, and recently, then I guess we'll see what kind of results we get in the next 2-5 years (Mantha and Larkin at the near end, Svech and Cholo at the far end). I don't have a lot of faith, currently, and the team hasn't really given fans any real reason to have any.

 

[InGusWeTrust]

This team has had far more embarrassing playoff performances over the past 25 years than the last three series' against Tampa and Boston. San Jose in '94, Colorado in '99, Los Angeles in 2001, Calgary in 2003, Edmonton in 2006, and Nashville 2012 are far worse playoff failures than than these more recent ones.

I think the LA one was the most embarrassing. I still remember that and I was like 10.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

The only way we contend again w/o top 5 picks is if

1) Larkin and Mantha turn into elite players

2) We somehow sign Karlsson when his contract is up

If #1 happens I think our chances of #2 happening go up a lot, as that's the only way we could possibly lure him here (plus the Swedish mafia), but the chances of that happening are almost 0, especially by the time Karlsson hits UFA status. Even if Karlsson wanted to come here, we'd have no cap room for his (deserved) $10m+ contract due to Hollands horrible roster mismanagement.

Never mind the fact that they had 10M+ THIS YEAR to throw at Stamkos if he wanted it.

 

[Frk It]

-We are 29th in shots for/game
-We are 10th in shots allowed/game
-Our PP is 25th in the league
-We are 27th in Team CF%

If we didn't have top 10 team SV% (good goaltending), all indications to me are that we would be a bottom 10 team in the league.

We are currently sitting 18th in the league, and 11th in the conference. I think the most likely scenario for this season is we just miss the playoffs and draft 11th-14th. Which is pretty much worst case scenario for us.

If we continue on the path we are going, we need to make a hard decision around Jan/Feb/Mar. If we are still sitting in the same place in the standings I would either try to sell Green or Vanek, or I would contemplate bringing in a new coach. But some kind of shakeup needs to happen, or we are on a path to just miss out on the playoffs and also just miss out on drafting top 10. I know we all disagree a lot, but I know none of us want that.

 

[Birko19]

For some reason my gut is telling me they will pull through.


My common sense and from watching them tells me no. Especially with the amount of under performing players we have, injuries we have..etc.

I hope your gut is wrong, then again if they end up competing for a playoff spot and not make it by a spot or two, I prefer them to make it.

If we're not gonna make it, I'd rather have a top 10 pick at least.

 

[Winger98]

If we continue on the path we are going, we need to make a hard decision around Jan/Feb/Mar. If we are still sitting in the same place in the standings I would either try to sell Green or Vanek, or I would contemplate bringing in a new coach. But some kind of shakeup needs to happen, or we are on a path to just miss out on the playoffs and also just miss out on drafting top 10. I know we all disagree a lot, but I know none of us want that.

I could get behind dealing Vanek for futures, but if we're dealing folks off we need to remember the expansion draft coming up and how what we bring in through trades affects that. It's one thing if we bring in a big time addition that we don't mind making a tough decision or two on who to protect. We don't want to bring in more guys who would be on that bubble along the lines of guys like Sproul, XO, and even AA (considering our club and how we might protect Helm/Gator instead).

Also, Green's got another year on his deal, so we have time to make a decision on him. And maybe someone will find themselves a bit weaker after the expansion draft/UFA and will be willing pay a premium for a guy like Green.

 

[Pavels Dog]

While 15 years might be an unfair duration, it's also unacceptable to go from being one of the best drafting records in the history of the sport, to, "Aww shucks...we didn't have any high picks, so hardly anybody panned out for a decade."

Should the results be less than basement dwellers? You betcha. But let's not pretend the front office hasn't underperformed, even considering the resources they've had.

I wouldn't say out drafting has underperformed. The contender run could have been over in the mid 00s if we weren't able to insert guys like Franzen, Hudler, Filppula, Helm etc., and the playoff streak would certainly have ended a lot sooner if not for Nyquist, Tatar, Howard etc.

We've had some underwhelming 1st round picks and not enough quality coming in on D, but if you remove every player picked in the top 14 on the teams around the league you'll start seeing how bad many of them look.

The only way we contend again w/o top 5 picks is if

1) Larkin and Mantha turn into elite players

2) We somehow sign Karlsson when his contract is up

If #1 happens I think our chances of #2 happening go up a lot, as that's the only way we could possibly lure him here (plus the Swedish mafia), but the chances of that happening are almost 0, especially by the time Karlsson hits UFA status. Even if Karlsson wanted to come here, we'd have no cap room for his (deserved) $10m+ contract due to Hollands horrible roster mismanagement.

There are a lot of alternatives to the 2nd point. Heck Karlsson himself was drafted at #15. He's special, but he's an example of how undersized but skilled guys can drop in the draft (Hronek/Cholo/Saarijarvi anyone?).