Does Ilya Kovalchuk Have A Chance At 700 Goals?

[TasteofFlames]

Does anyone know what Kovys reputation is for off season work???

FWIW Kovalchuk is a physical freak of nature, and, from what I understand, the only thing Kovy does more than workout is hang with his family, so I wouldn't be too worried about him getting fat and lazy. That said, he does rely heavily on his speed, and has history shows, these type of players tend to break down a bit earlier. Now, given his relatively injury free career, thus far, it wouldn't surprise me if he played at a high level a bit longer than average.

As for 700 goals, I highly doubt it, though as a fan of Kovalchuk, and a fan of the game in general, I'd love to see it. Would be an amazing feat by an amazing goal scorer.

 

[TasteofFlames]

And yet the conversation becomes paralyzed when even considering a future HHOF induction - which isn't good for him

I went to look his awards up, because I figured he had at least a couple of ASTs to go with his Richard and, it turns out, he has a whopping 1 2nd team award. Could somebody link me to the AST voting records for 05-06 - 09-10 (if such a thing exists). I'm curious as to how much impact career years have had on his AS voting.

 

[blue425]

20 goals/season for 10 more years, until he's 39

or 25/season for 8 more years until he's 37, to reach 600.

Those are extremely reasonable numbers for a guy like Ilya Kovalchuk, who's on pace for his 9th straight 30 goal season, and a guy who's scored 30 goals+ every year of his career outside his rookie season (29).

Guy is having a monster season this year. And what you have suggested makes sense.

Yes. I think he has a pretty good chance barring injury.

 

[popculturereference]

I went to look his awards up, because I figured he had at least a couple of ASTs to go with his Richard and, it turns out, he has a whopping 1 2nd team award. Could somebody link me to the AST voting records for 05-06 - 09-10 (if such a thing exists). I'm curious as to how much impact career years have had on his AS voting.

LW AST: 13th (02-03), 2nd (03-04), 3rd (05-06), 6th (06-07), 3rd (07-08), 3rd (08-09), 5th (09-10)

RW AST: 10th (05-06), 12th (09-10)

When he was 3rd, he was behind: Ovechkin/Heatley (05-06), Ovechkin/Zetterberg (07-08), Ovechkin/Parise (08-09)

 

[TasteofFlames]

LW AST: 13th (02-03), 2nd (03-04), 3rd (05-06), 6th (06-07), 3rd (07-08), 3rd (08-09), 5th (09-10)

RW AST: 10th (05-06), 12th (09-10)

When he was 3rd, he was behind: Ovechkin/Heatley (05-06), Ovechkin/Zetterberg (07-08), Ovechkin/Parise (08-09)

Thanks man (guess I should have checked the sticky...), that's precisely what I was looking for. I guess that's pretty much what I was expecting, not amazing, but a solid AST record. I think one could make a decent argment out of 5 top 5 ASTs. His Hart voting, however, is atrocious (high of 11, 2 other top 20), but that shouldn't come as a surprise. Playing for the Thrashers through one's peak, combined with the (imo, undeserved) rep as a "me-first" player does a lot to hinder one's MVP cred.

I do think that 5 top-5 AST finishes and 600 goals would probably do the trick to get him in the Hall, even if he has to wait a bit.

OT, but, as a fan of the game, I feel I missed out on some amazing hockey when Don Waddell decided a 90 point top end passing center in Marc Savard wasn't worth $5mil. The things those two could have done. Stick Hossa with them, and I think you have a combo every bit as good as the pizza line.

 

[Hardyvan123]

He's at 398 now. Assuming he'll add another say 6 goals this year in the remaining 15 games. He'd have 404 before turning 29. So he needs 296 goals past age 29.

12 players have managed that: Howe, Esposito, Bucyk, Brett Hull, Ratelle, Dionne, Messier, Selanne, Gartner, Mullen, Andreychuk and Shanahan. Selanne and Shanahan have done it primarily in the recent low-scoring era and both needed 11 years to do it. To take from that, Kovalchuk has a small but real chance if he ages well and plays to 40.

I agree the chances of him making it are both small but still quite realistic is he stays healthy IMO.

 

[Hardyvan123]

Guy is having a monster season this year. And what you have suggested makes sense.

Yes. I think he has a pretty good chance barring injury.

not sure about monster there are a couple of clear monster seasons going on and then a huge pack of guys, close to 20, that are in a pack for goals (Stmakos then Malkin then over 20 guys within 27-34 goals) and PPG, as the point totals reflect the injury parade that has happened this year.

 

[popculturereference]

Thanks man (guess I should have checked the sticky...), that's precisely what I was looking for. I guess that's pretty much what I was expecting, not amazing, but a solid AST record. I think one could make a decent argment out of 5 top 5 ASTs. His Hart voting, however, is atrocious (high of 11, 2 other top 20), but that shouldn't come as a surprise. Playing for the Thrashers through one's peak, combined with the (imo, undeserved) rep as a "me-first" player does a lot to hinder one's MVP cred.

I do think that 5 top-5 AST finishes and 600 goals would probably do the trick to get him in the Hall, even if he has to wait a bit.

OT, but, as a fan of the game, I feel I missed out on some amazing hockey when Don Waddell decided a 90 point top end passing center in Marc Savard wasn't worth $5mil. The things those two could have done. Stick Hossa with them, and I think you have a combo every bit as good as the pizza line.

Well, I don't think that an AST finish out of the top-2 is going to amount to anything, in terms of HHOF induction. However, it looks likely that Kovalchuk will finish in the top-2 this year, which should help his chances a bit. But, I think it would be incredibly difficult to ignore Kovalchuk if he hits 600 goals. The only guy who has done it and looks unlikely to make the HHOF is Andreychuk.

Kovalchuk has 7 top-10 goal leading finishes (3 of those are top-3), and 4 top-10 point leading finishes (only 1 is top-3). And, it's possible that he could add to both of these totals this year. So, the lack of All-Star finishes may not even hurt him.

 

[popculturereference]

not sure about monster there are a couple of clear monster seasons going on and then a huge pack of guys, close to 20, that are in a pack for goals (Stmakos then Malkin then over 20 guys within 27-34 goals) and PPG, as the point totals reflect the injury parade that has happened this year.

I think when people say monster, they are also including the fact that he's averaging nearly 25 minutes a game, and has become more of a defensive presence. He's also fourth in PPG if you discount Backstrom and Crosby because of their smaller games played totals. His PPG is a level down from Stamkos/Giroux/Malkin, but he's ahead of the rest at the moment.

 

[seventieslord]

He's at 398 now. Assuming he'll add another say 6 goals this year in the remaining 15 games. He'd have 404 before turning 29. So he needs 296 goals past age 29.

12 players have managed that: Howe, Esposito, Bucyk, Brett Hull, Ratelle, Dionne, Messier, Selanne, Gartner, Mullen, Andreychuk and Shanahan. Selanne and Shanahan have done it primarily in the recent low-scoring era and both needed 11 years to do it. To take from that, Kovalchuk has a small but real chance if he ages well and plays to 40.

That's an incredible little piece of trivia. If someone asked me who these 12 are, I'd have guessed the other 11 within a few minutes. But never Ratelle.