Does Ilya Kovalchuk Have A Chance At 700 Goals?

[ted2019]

Here is His Stats:
http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/k/kovalil01.html

I think He has a 30% chance of doing it.

Click to read more...

 

[unknown33]

Oh hell no.
Have you even bothered to check how many players in NHL history managed to score 700 goals?

Kovalchuk would need to score 30 goals on average for the next 10 years.

 

[Plural]

Everything is possible. But it is very unlikely.

I think your 30% is a "little" off. I´d give it something around 2%.

 

[Strong Island]

If he stays healthy and plays out his contract he'll do it. If either of those don't happen he probably falls short.

 

[begbeee]

No. 500 is sure bet, 600 is likely. 700? Nooo - that means 2%.

 

[Joe Thornton]

Only if he was still scoring at his old 40-50 goal pace. Like another poster said he would have to do 30 goals a season for the next ten years not factoring injuries. There is a chance but its not likely.

 

[tony d]

He'll make it close but I think he'll end up with 652 career goals.

 

[Big Phil]

He'll make it close but I think he'll end up with 652 career goals.

Well that's precise, hehe.

No I don't think he does it at all. He has 394 now, but if there is one thing for sure it is that any player north of 30 will see his goal production drop quicker than even his point production. Kovalchuk is almost 29 and I think we are seeing it right now. He cracked 31 last year, has 25 this year and might be a longshot for 35 this season. I don't see him ever getting 50 again. He'll hit 500 for sure, barring injury there is little doubt about that. But that's the thing when it comes to goal scorers, everyone thinks they will score at that same pace forever. It didn't happen with Ovechkin (unless he can somehow turn it around) and it didn't even happen with Gretzky and Lemieux north of 30. And believe me the same thing will happen to Stamkos. How do I know? Because Kovalchuk was once an "it" kid and it was hard to imagine him ever slowing down.

 

[seventieslord]

But that's the thing when it comes to goal scorers, everyone thinks they will score at that same pace forever. It didn't happen with Ovechkin (unless he can somehow turn it around) and it didn't even happen with Gretzky and Lemieux north of 30.

I try telling this to so many people who apparently think Bure and Bossy would have bucked that trend.

 

[LeBlondeDemon10]

I'd highly doubt he hits 600. As others have said, he is nearing the end of his peak and he's been around 30 a year lately. Had he stayed in Atlanta and played the way he was, he might have a chance at 600. But I think he is a better player now even though he is scoring less. He is playing very good hockey and utilizing his underrated play making skills. If NJ can keep Parise or someone like him to compliment Kov, he can put up some very good seasons, say 30 goals and 50-60 assists, that actually may enhance his HHOF chances. Shaking that 'selfish tag' will be key.

 

[Big Phil]

I try telling this to so many people who apparently think Bure and Bossy would have bucked that trend.

Yeah, hmmm, that's the thing when you have players that retire at 30, you can't really prove them wrong. If Ovechkin doesn't look like the type that'll buck the trend then I don't see how Bure could have been. That's about the best evidence I can give for ones who think Bure would have done this.

As for Bossy, well his last season he had 38 and while he did have back problems I still don't think he was on pace for 50 either. The Isles were turning into a worse and worse team as time went on and I think he just would have burned out. That man played a ton of hockey. I guess the best evidence you can give is that Trottier floundered from a statistical perspective after 30 years old.

 

[Plural]

I try telling this to so many people who apparently think Bure and Bossy would have bucked that trend.

Well, Selanne was a 40 goal scorer over the age of 35. It is very unlikely that someone keeps the production that long but it is possible.

 

[Blackjack]

It's not common, but it does happen. Shanahan, Hull, Selanne, Guerin had some good seasons after 30.

I'd say he has an outside shot, but he needs to have some big seasons, 40-50 goals, and he needs to have them soon.

 

[HF007]

He turns 30 next year and will have a little over 400 goals this year.
If he plays 10 more years i see him averaging at-least 25 goals per season which would put him at 650. 700 is in reach but he would have to put up some 40-50 goal seasons.

 

[Dondini]

I was actually thinking about this the other day.

He has 395 right now. Lets say he has 400 at the end of this year. (his 28 year old season)

He would need another 300 goals. Its a long shot but not unrealistic. If he takes training seriously and keeps motivated I think he can do it.

He also has injury history on his side. He has had a very healthy career. I believe he has only missed 34 games befor this season. And 17 of those were in his rookie season.

I honestly dont think his 40 goal days are done. He still looks way to dangerous and explosive. If he could muster up a couple 40-45 goal seasons in the next 3-4 years it will go a long ways for him.

Its just to bad he missed a season due to the lockout in his prime. He would probably be sitting around 440 goals right now. Of course thats speculation but he defintely missed alot of goals missing that year.

Lets just hope he plays healthy until 38-39 years old. He might make things interesting.

Even if he finishes with 600-650 goals thats super impressive considering his era. Kind of like what Jarome is doing. But I honestly dont think Kovalchuk is going to be below a 30 goal scorer for another 5-6 years


Lets look at a hypothetical career for him.

hes currently on pace for 33 goals which would put him at 402 goals

28 years old 402 goals (33)
29 years old 440 goals (38)
30 years old 476 goals (36)
31 years old 508 goals (32)
32 years old 530 goals (22) injury season
33 years old 561 goals (31)
34 years old 590 goals (29)
35 years old 616 goals (26)
36 years old 641 goals (25)
37 years old 657 goals (16)goals)( injury season)
38 years old 680 goals (23)
39 years old 700 goals (20)

of course this is a pure guess but sometimes I like to see what kind of seasons a player would have to have to score at a certain rate. I certainly do not think these numbers are unrealistic.

It largely depends on health, motivation and off season training.



Does anyone know what Kovys reputation is for off season work???

 

[Big Phil]

It's not common, but it does happen. Shanahan, Hull, Selanne, Guerin had some good seasons after 30.

I'd say he has an outside shot, but he needs to have some big seasons, 40-50 goals, and he needs to have them soon.

How long was that maintained though? Shanahan did have that 40 goal campaign when he was 36, but it was not a trend for him. His goal production had been slowly dropping over the years. The 40 goal year was a blip. Hull still scored well after his 30s but it was a stark difference from his prime. He was a 70+ goal man and as high as a 57 goal man as a 29 year old and then never more than 43 once he hit 30. It looks like he stayed elite but two things are factored in, he started his career not at 18 but at 23 meaning he didn't suffer burnout as quickly. And by Hull's lofty standards scoring 35-40 goals was a huge drop off for him. Selanne cracked 40 and 48 goals when he was 35 years old but it was after a year long lockout and after a few seasons where he had dropped like a stone, so it was more of a resurgence than anything. Since then, just 31 goals as his high. Guerin has Joe Thornton to thank for giving him 40 goals.

 

[revolverjgw]

If he stays healthy and wants to play for a long time, he can definitely do it. He has the right skills to stay effective after he slows down.

 

[gja]

Unlikely, but if the lockout never happened and he was sitting on 445 instead of 395 right now, it would be a very different discussion.

 

[Seanconn*]

yes. but would have to play better than Teemu Selanne is this season, but at 42.

Kovalcuk has 395 goals. If he can play at a high level with New Jersey, to the end of his contract and maybe a few years beyond.

who knows, maybe scoring goes up 3 seasons from now. "dead puck era's" don't = ice ages. and hockey isn't global warming. I hope we get rid of boring hockey though.

Kovalchuk could very well end up playing in many high scoring seasons. no one knows what the league will look like another 2 years from now.

Selanne, Jagr, Shanny, Sakic, Lindros, Forsberg, etc, all missed 1.5 seasons because of 2 lockouts. Kovalchuk could probably handle that too.

Kovalchuk is top 3 Russian player right now I think. Ovechkin will eventually overtake Dastyuk, when he becomes too old. not anywhere close right now.

 

[Jersey Fresh]

Unlikely, but if the lockout never happened and he was sitting on 445 instead of 395 right now, it would be a very different discussion.

Yup. Says something about the kind of scorer he's been in this league.

 

[Big Phil]

Yup. Says something about the kind of scorer he's been in this league.

And yet the conversation becomes paralyzed when even considering a future HHOF induction - which isn't good for him

 

[Dondini]

2 goals tonight......obviously his chances had to have gone up by at least 5-10%. 4% at the very very least.

 

[Strong Island]

How long was that maintained though? Shanahan did have that 40 goal campaign when he was 36, but it was not a trend for him. His goal production had been slowly dropping over the years. The 40 goal year was a blip. Hull still scored well after his 30s but it was a stark difference from his prime. He was a 70+ goal man and as high as a 57 goal man as a 29 year old and then never more than 43 once he hit 30. It looks like he stayed elite but two things are factored in, he started his career not at 18 but at 23 meaning he didn't suffer burnout as quickly. And by Hull's lofty standards scoring 35-40 goals was a huge drop off for him. Selanne cracked 40 and 48 goals when he was 35 years old but it was after a year long lockout and after a few seasons where he had dropped like a stone, so it was more of a resurgence than anything. Since then, just 31 goals as his high. Guerin has Joe Thornton to thank for giving him 40 goals.

He was still playing games from 18-23. Do NHL games make you "burn out" quicker than NCAA and Junior games?

His point is it's possible that he has a few more elite goal scoring season. Is that really such an absurd assertion?

 

[Sky04]

I'd highly doubt he hits 600. As others have said, he is nearing the end of his peak and he's been around 30 a year lately. Had he stayed in Atlanta and played the way he was, he might have a chance at 600. But I think he is a better player now even though he is scoring less. He is playing very good hockey and utilizing his underrated play making skills. If NJ can keep Parise or someone like him to compliment Kov, he can put up some very good seasons, say 30 goals and 50-60 assists, that actually may enhance his HHOF chances. Shaking that 'selfish tag' will be key.

20 goals/season for 10 more years, until he's 39

or 25/season for 8 more years until he's 37, to reach 600.

Those are extremely reasonable numbers for a guy like Ilya Kovalchuk, who's on pace for his 9th straight 30 goal season, and a guy who's scored 30 goals+ every year of his career outside his rookie season (29).

 

[TheMoreYouKnow]

He's at 398 now. Assuming he'll add another say 6 goals this year in the remaining 15 games. He'd have 404 before turning 29. So he needs 296 goals past age 29.

12 players have managed that: Howe, Esposito, Bucyk, Brett Hull, Ratelle, Dionne, Messier, Selanne, Gartner, Mullen, Andreychuk and Shanahan. Selanne and Shanahan have done it primarily in the recent low-scoring era and both needed 11 years to do it. To take from that, Kovalchuk has a small but real chance if he ages well and plays to 40.