Does anyone currently drafted have the potential to score 50 in 9 consecutive seasons?

[Merrrlin]

This is a carry over from the Mike Bossy thread.

Mike scored 50 in 9 straight years.

You would need to score at a higher than 0.61gpg pace, and with injuries, possibly closer to 0.70gpg+.

Of players with 200gp or more, these are some current gpg:

Matthews - 0.59
Pastrnak - 0.55
McDavid - 0.52
Draisaitl - 051

This is purely a production question, I don't want this to be a "who has the most talent" or "scoring across eras" conversation. Those have been done to death.

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[Holymakinaw]

I go with Matthews. Many Leaf haters will slag him in this thread, I'm sure. But the guy scores a ton of goals and that's all this question is about, really.

Nine consecutive years with 50+ goals is a TALL order, tho. He doesn't even have one yet. He would have this year......if not for plague.

 

[Emerz]

Nah, to be a guy who can score 50 for 9 straight seasons you'd almost have to be a regular 60 goal guy, that way you could hit 50 even on down years.

 

[EXTRAS]

A few of these guys could do it in the 80s.

 

[BlueBaron]

The question was have the potential to? Obviously a few do.

Matthews leads a small group who all have the "potential" but health, hold outs, lock outs, line mates are all variables beyond the players control making it among the hardest things to do.

 

[wintersej]

Healthy Matthews is the best bet, but still a no.

Pasta isn't as pure of a goal scorer as Matthews. I can see Pasta having a few seasons where he becomes more of a playmaker depending on line mates.

 

[filinski77]

I would give none of them a realistic chance (ie. higher than 5%). Assuming that Regular season does not continue (it probably won't), that puts all of them at 0 straight. Matthews would need to do it from his 23-31 year old seasons. Most goalscorers fall off and start to decline around 27 years old, and 50 would be incredibly hard at that point.

There's also too much random variation, you can't just look at a players GPG and expect the exact same goal amount every year (with the exception of Ovechkin, who other than his 2 down years, is incredibly consistent in his final goal numbers). ie. if Matthews were to average 52 goals a year for 9 years, it is extremely likely that there would be some 40-49 goal seasons in there (if not less than 40 due to off years). Look at Bossy who varied consistently between 51-69 goal, he could easily have scored 48 in a year or 2.

 

[bobholly39]

This is a carry over from the Mike Bossy thread.

Mike scored 50 in 9 straight years.

You would need to score at a higher than 0.61gpg pace, and with injuries, possibly closer to 0.70gpg+.

Of players with 200gp or more, these are some current gpg:

Matthews - 0.59
Pastrnak - 0.55
McDavid - 0.52
Draisaitl - 051

This is purely a production question, I don't want this to be a "who has the most talent" or "scoring across eras" conversation. Those have been done to death.

I think you have to start this by looking at "adjusted goals" - if not the answer is no one. By using hockey-reference's method of adjusting goals (which is far from perfect - but at least it's a baseline we can use for this discussion) - Bossy's stretch of 9 seasons of 50 goals becomes "adjusted" to seasons of 40 to 58 goals. Only twice does it amount to 50+ goals (58 and 52) the rest are in the 40 range.

So if you were to ask can anyone in today's league match this - I'd say yes. It'll be very hard to do - but I think someone like Matthews would be the most likely. 9 seasons in a row of 40+ - with a few spike years of 50+. I think the only other player in today's league I could see doing that also is Drai (being McDavid's teammate is a big reason why, if not I wouldn't mention him). I'd be surprised to see Pastrnak show that level of consistency year to year - Laine might spike higher than anyone (60+) - but consistency already seems like a major weakness of his - and no one else seems even worth a look to be honest.

Will any of them actually do it? Probably not. Just look at Matthews - 4 seasons into the league pacing for 40+ each year, but twice he missed it to injuries already - and even this season he would have hit 50+, but seems like he won't with season ending due to circumstances everyone knows. Maybe there's a lockout one year. Maybe another injury. The consistency and good fortunes needed to hit 40+ 9 years in a row is really difficult.

I do think Matthews can hit 40+ goals 9 times or more - just not sure about in a row.

Also just to show how difficult this is - even Ovechkin didn't do it, even ignoring all lockouts and injuries. He simply had an "off year" twice in 2011 and 2012, scoring 32 and 38 goals.

I voted Matthews. If you want to keep this strictly to 50+ though - my answer changes to no one.

 

[Merrrlin]

I think you have to start this by looking at "adjusted goals" - if not the answer is no one. By using hockey-reference's method of adjusting goals (which is far from perfect - but at least it's a baseline we can use for this discussion) - Bossy's stretch of 9 seasons of 50 goals becomes "adjusted" to seasons of 40 to 58 goals. Only twice does it amount to 50+ goals (58 and 52) the rest are in the 40 range.

So if you were to ask can anyone in today's league match this - I'd say yes. It'll be very hard to do - but I think someone like Matthews would be the most likely. 9 seasons in a row of 40+ - with a few spike years of 50+. I think the only other player in today's league I could see doing that also is Drai (being McDavid's teammate is a big reason why, if not I wouldn't mention him). I'd be surprised to see Pastrnak show that level of consistency year to year - Laine might spike higher than anyone (60+) - but consistency already seems like a major weakness of his - and no one else seems even worth a look to be honest.

Will any of them actually do it? Probably not. Just look at Matthews - 4 seasons into the league pacing for 40+ each year, but twice he missed it to injuries already - and even this season he would have hit 50+, but seems like he won't with season ending due to circumstances everyone knows. Maybe there's a lockout one year. Maybe another injury. The consistency and good fortunes needed to hit 40+ 9 years in a row is really difficult.

I do think Matthews can hit 40+ goals 9 times or more - just not sure about in a row.

Also just to show how difficult this is - even Ovechkin didn't do it, even ignoring all lockouts and injuries. He simply had an "off year" twice in 2011 and 2012, scoring 32 and 38 goals.

I voted Matthews. If you want to keep this strictly to 50+ though - my answer changes to no one.

I am not interested in era adjusted though, I am just curious if anyone can score 50 a bunch of time in a row like what happened in the 80's. It would obviously take a ridiculous amount of luck (injuries) and a great team around them.

Healthy Matthews is the best bet, but still a no.

Pasta isn't as pure of a goal scorer as Matthews. I can see Pasta having a few seasons where he becomes more of a playmaker depending on line mates.

Agreed, I could see Pasta putting up 50 one year, then 35 the next year with 70 apples.

 

[wetcoast]

A few of these guys could do it in the 80s.

Quite a few could if they were in the 80s..

Back to the OP, I think not unless some rule changes are relaxed, just a simple look at the size of goalie equipment in the 80's compared to now tells you the biggest reason why it's extremely unlikely.

 

[bobholly39]

I am not interested in era adjusted though, I am just curious if anyone can score 50 a bunch of time in a row like what happened in the 80's. It would obviously take a ridiculous amount of luck (injuries) and a great team around them.

The answer is absolutely no one then. To put in perspective how impossible this is - look no further than Draisait this season.

He's seen by many as a top 4 goal-scorer in the league (Ovi, Matthews, Pastrnak, him) according to a recent poll on here. He scored 50 last year. He's on pace to possibly have the greatest offensive season of the last ~30 years, possibly hitting 130+ points. He plays with McDavid, often on the powerplay and as a linemate for much of the season. So what i'm trying to say is - for Drai - this is as "perfect storm" of a season of everything going well for him as he's likely to ever see, offensively. Despite that - his current pace has him finishing at 49 goals, just 1 shy of 50.

So no - there's no one in the league today who will hit 50 goals 9 years in a row - unless there'a a drastic increase in scoring, that lasts. Scoring 50 in today's league is really hard.

 

[Merrrlin]

The answer is absolutely no one then. To put in perspective how impossible this is - look no further than Draisait this season.

He's seen by many as a top 4 goal-scorer in the league (Ovi, Matthews, Pastrnak, him) according to a recent poll on here. He scored 50 last year. He's on pace to possibly have the greatest offensive season of the last ~30 years, possibly hitting 130+ points. He plays with McDavid, often on the powerplay and as a linemate for much of the season. So what i'm trying to say is - for Drai - this is as "perfect storm" of a season of everything going well for him as he's likely to ever see, offensively. Despite that - his current pace has him finishing at 49 goals, just 1 shy of 50.

So no - there's no one in the league today who will hit 50 goals 9 years in a row - unless there'a a drastic increase in scoring, that lasts. Scoring 50 in today's league is really hard.

I agree, but I am an optimist and I'd like to see Matthews take a run at it. It would take a huge amount of luck, though.

Maybe some kid out there is pounding pucks in his basement and will one day be that kind of threat.

 

[bobholly39]

I agree, but I am an optimist and I'd like to see Matthews take a run at it. It would take a huge amount of luck, though.

Maybe some kid out there is pounding pucks in his basement and will one day be that kind of threat.

For a player to hit 50 9 years in a row - he'd likely have to average close to 60 goals per season for those 9 years. Injuries, luck, fluctuation year to year alone would necessitate this, if not he'd certainly fall below 50 a few years.

Bossy in those 9 years average 59 goals a season. I could see someone like Matthews - under the absolute best circumstances - manage to average 50 goals a season over 9 years. But he'd miss 50 in certain years (one year 45, one year 59, etc). But to actually hit 50 each year would mean averaging ~60 a year, which is insane. I'm not even sure a single player you listed will hit 60 goals once in their career, let alone average it over 9 years.

 

[Merrrlin]

For a player to hit 50 9 years in a row - he'd likely have to average close to 60 goals per season for those 9 years. Injuries, luck, fluctuation year to year alone would necessitate this, if not he'd certainly fall below 50 a few years.

Bossy in those 9 years average 59 goals a season. I could see someone like Matthews - under the absolute best circumstances - manage to average 50 goals a season over 9 years. But he'd miss 50 in certain years (one year 45, one year 59, etc). But to actually hit 50 each year would mean averaging ~60 a year, which is insane. I'm not even sure a single player you listed will hit 60 goals once in their career, let alone average it over 9 years.

Agreed. The floor production would need to be closer to 60. A 0.73 gpg would allow him to miss 12ish games in a year and still hit 50. Then the expectation would be that he'd hit 55-60 in healthy years.

He would need to up this years pace by an additional 5 goals/82 - tough ask, especially 9 times in a row.

 

[Steven Toast]

No one will ever get 9 straight 50 goal seasons again.

 

[CraigsList]

I put no one because it is so hard to score 50 goals consecutively for 9 seasons. That being said, I think Laine and Matthews would be my choice if I didn't have the option of saying "no one".

 

[BlueBaron]

No one will ever get 9 straight 50 goal seasons again.

It's actually far more likely someone will than won't, given unlimited time.

 

[Incognito]

It is damn hard to score 50 goals nine times in the course of a career, let alone 50 goals nine times in a row. Even Ovechkin has only ever scored 50+ goals in three consecutive seasons (though he's done this twice - 2007-2008 through 2009-2010, and 2013-2014 through 2015-2016). I feel pretty confident in saying that no player listed in the poll above will achieve this feat.

 

[Stealth JD]

Based on what we've seen, I'd say Draisaitl would have the best shot at it, considering his health (thus far) and having the other team's top defenders focused on McDavid.

 

[Golden_Jet]

no-one

 

[Dache]

This is a carry over from the Mike Bossy thread.

Mike scored 50 in 9 straight years.

You would need to score at a higher than 0.61gpg pace, and with injuries, possibly closer to 0.70gpg+.

Of players with 200gp or more, these are some current gpg:

Matthews - 0.59
Pastrnak - 0.55
McDavid - 0.52
Draisaitl - 051

This is purely a production question, I don't want this to be a "who has the most talent" or "scoring across eras" conversation. Those have been done to death.

I’m not sure why you’re talking about pace, this question has absolutely nothing to do with pace, but rather actual production. You wouldn’t need .61 or .7 gpg you would need 50g/per season

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

Be really tough to have both the talent combined w the durability to do this. Certainly some guys possess the hands /mind to do so (Matthews, pasta, Drai, Mcdavid, Laine) but man stars would need to align over an incredible sustained period.

 

[93gilmour93]

That's a very tough task for anyone but if I picked one off the list it would be Auston

 

[Thenameless]

It's actually far more likely someone will than won't, given unlimited time.

That's right. Some future NHL commissioner might change the game in a big way to promote more scoring, like the NFL did to promote passing. Some drastic changes might include larger nets or more 4 on 4 play.

 

[BlueBaron]

That's right. Some future NHL commissioner might change the game in a big way to promote more scoring, like the NFL did to promote passing. Some drastic changes might include larger nets or more 4 on 4 play.

No even without that. The law of averages dictates anything possible will happen if given a large enough sample. If it is possible to score one 50 goal season than 10 is possible and will happen eventually.