Do you believe our "window" to win the Cup is still open?

[Var]

Boy you fellas are looking a gift horse in the mouth. Back to back president's trophies and half of you are acting like little babies with no backbone. This team isn't the Flames, they're the Canucks. Have some faith.

 

[BoHorvatFan]

We lose to really good teams in the playoffs. Last years Kings were really good, deep, physical, great goaltending, the Hawks the first two times were incredibly deep, physical, had great play from their defence... in the cup run we beat a Hawks team that was torn apart by the cap, a Preds team that couldn't score, and a Sharks team that was pretty thin outside the big line. If we luck out and get a good match-up, we can make another run but if we play a deep, physical team with good goaltending we are going to lose because our secondary scoring is not good enough, we are pretty small, our best players seem to always get hurt, and so on.

To me its all the luck of the draw, where we are in the standings means nothing, obviously last year is a perfect example of that. Hope for opponents with flaws and take advantage.

In a best on best 7 game series against a really good team I don't trust our group.

 

[alternate]

I think our window is still open. And we're starting to see the "next generation" fill in the gaps, with guys like Kassian, Schroeder, Tanev and Schneider becoming bigger parts of the team. That should extend the window even more.

For all the doom and gloom, imo we're in a good spot as an organization both short and longer term. I know people love to compare our prospects to the teams drafting early in round 1 and say how crappy our stable is, but this has been going on for a decade now and we have a ton of home-grown talent on our roster.

Whether it's our elite guys like the Sedins and Kesler who had just "third line upside", or unheralded dmen like Bieksa and Edler who came out of nowhere, or valuable depth guys like Hansen and Raymond, our prospects have consistently exceeded expectations for the last while. No reason to think we'll go back to the Pat Quinn era of never having prospects graduate to become contributing members of the big squad.

 

[dave babych returns]

To me its all the luck of the draw, where we are in the standings means nothing, obviously last year is a perfect example of that.

Well - it doesn't mean everything, but I don't think you can say it means nothing.

The West is a very deep conference but even so the Canucks have been unlucky to draw very strong opponents in the first round the last two playoffs.

That being said you are still likelier to get an easy draw in the first round with the top seed than you are with the bottom.

 

[AmazingNuck]

Easily? He was in a 3 way tie for 22nd in assists last year. I'm not saying he's a bad play-maker, and you could even make an argument that he's close to or in the top 5...but easily? I have trouble agreeing with that.

He was also injured for about 10 games and the Sedins did have an off-year.


2010-2011: 3rd ranked in forwards for assists. That is also despite Henrik scoring only 19 goals. Only winger better? St. Louis. 2nd in winger assists.


2009-2010: 10th ranked in forwards for assists.. while playing 63 games. He had a 72 assist pace, which would've put him second. He was only behind Kane, Ovechkin, and St.Louis for wingers. 4th in winger assists, despite his injury.

2008-2009: 13th ranked in forwards for assists. Wingers who were better? Ovechkin, Iginla, and Whitney.. 4th for winger assists.


So for the 3 years prior to last year, he was top 5 in winger assists. Admittedly, last year was a down season for our team- I mean, we had just made the cup finals and we were knocked out in the first round.

Is he easily top 5? I'm challenged to name 5 guys that I think are better. Who'd be considered top 5 playmaking wingers, if not Daniel? The group of playmaking wingers isn't as elite as you think. Kane, St. Louis, Whitney, Zetterberg, Parise? Who else challenges Daniel? I'd say Daniel is a better playmaker (ignoring all other facets) than Parise and possibly Zetterberg, which lands him comfortably in the top 5.

 

[LeftCoast]

How long our window stays open depends on a lot of things that we won't really know until this season progresses a bit.

How many years of PPG production to the Sedins have left in them? Their style of play does not depend upon speed and their conditioning is usually excellent. They do however take a lot of abuse. Personally I think it all depends upon how the NHL enforces its own rules. If they continue the trend towards letting the clutch and grab, interference infractions to go un-punished, the Sedins production may decline faster. If they reassert the 2005 post lockout enforcement standards the Sedins could play at a high level for another 3 - 5 years.

Can Kesler continue to take the pounding he takes game in, game out? He had wrist surgery - how good is his shot going to be? He has had hip/labrum, shoulder and wrist surgeries - not to mention a broken jaw courtesy of Jesse Boulerice and several broken fingers. His body has a lot more miles on it than the average 28 year old.

Can Mason Raymond bounce back? Can Kassian step up to the next level? If so, it takes a lot of offensive pressure of the Sedins and Kesler.

Can Jordan Schroeder be an everyday top 6 forward? He has the tools and work ethic, can he do it at the NHL level?

How good is Nicklas Jenssen?

What piece or pieces are we getting in return for Roberto Luongo?

I think we will have an answer to all of these questions in about 10 - 15 games.

 

[Shareefruck]

Conversely, most teams that sit at or near the top of the league for most of the season - don't win the cup.

Silly logic. Most teams don't win the cup period, so of course most teams that sit at or near the top of the least for most of the season don't win the cup. The important thing is that their chances are better than the teams that are below them.

 

[Scurr]

The young guys are going to determine how long the window stays open but as long as the Sedins are elite players we'll be contenders. Gillis has a lot of really good hockey players locked up to great contracts.

 

[Wisp]

I feel a lot better about the breeze coming from the window with Edler locked up.

 

[Shareefruck]

The young guys are going to determine how long the window stays open but as long as the Sedins are elite players we'll be contenders. Gillis has a lot of really good hockey players locked up to great contracts.

Honestly, I think this team's D and goaltending are way too good and we'll be good for a long time as a result. Even if the Sedins regress into second line players, this team could probably still be effective playing a checking a defensive style.

 

[Drop the Sopel]

Honestly, I think this team's D and goaltending are way too good and we'll be good for a long time as a result. Even if the Sedins regress into second line players, this team could probably still be effective playing a checking a defensive style.

Absolutely, as long as Kesler can stay in the lineup.

The window looked more in jeopardy before Gillis decided to hitch his wagon to the 7 year younger Schneider. That decision, coupled with the longterm contract to Garrison will play a big role in maintaining success in Vancouver.

 

[Scurr]

Honestly, I think this team's D and goaltending are way too good and we'll be good for a long time as a result. Even if the Sedins regress into second line players, this team could probably still be effective playing a checking a defensive style.

I agree. The other thing that nobody seems to consider is that we get better. Our team is oldish but nobody should start regressing in the next few seasons imo. Our lineup is a 3rd line centre and 2nd line RW away from being sick imo. Stacked. If two of Kassian, Jensen and Schroeder can develop into those roles... watch out.

 

[Wisp]

I think our prospect depth has improved since then, too. Likely Tanev and Kassian graduate this year, and I still think prospect depth is better than 2011.

 

[604]

I agree. The other thing that nobody seems to consider is that we get better. Our team is oldish but nobody should start regressing in the next few seasons imo. Our lineup is a 3rd line centre and 2nd line RW away from being sick imo. Stacked. If two of Kassian, Jensen and Schroeder can develop into those roles... watch out.

This is a bit of wishful thinking but if we trust our youngsters, I could see us rolling with something like this in 2013-14:

CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER
My Custom Lineup
FORWARDS
Daniel Sedin ($6.100m) / Henrik Sedin ($6.100m) / Alex Burrows ($4.500m)
Nicklas Jensen ($0.894m) / Ryan Kesler ($5.000m) / Zack Kassian ($0.870m)
David Booth ($4.250m) / XXX XXX ($0.000m) / Jannik Hansen ($1.350m)
Maxim Lapierre ($1.000m) / Jordan Schroeder ($0.900m) / Dale Weise ($0.615m)
Jim Vandermeer ($0.600m) /

DEFENSEMEN
Jason Garrison ($4.600m) / Kevin Bieksa ($4.600m)
Dan Hamhuis ($4.500m) / Chris Tanev ($0.900m)
Alex Edler ($5.000m) / Frank Corrado ($0.599m)

GOALTENDERS
Cory Schneider ($4.000m)
Eddie Lack ($0.750m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $57,128,611; BONUSES: $15,000
CAP SPACE (21-man roster): $7,186,389

Vandemeer can play both forward and D so we could role with 21 guys leaving $7.186M if we want to try and sign top tier two-way centre for the 3rd line (xxx)...putting a guy like Getzlaf in that spot would give us a very solid top 9 and isn't even a stretch with $7M to offer.

 

[Dado]

The important thing is that their chances are better than the teams that are below them.

Not since the lockout.

There have been more 7 and 8 seeds in the SCF than there have been 1 seeds. In particular, our conference has sent as many 8 seeds to the finals as it has sent 1 seeds.

 

[Shareefruck]

I agree. The other thing that nobody seems to consider is that we get better. Our team is oldish but nobody should start regressing in the next few seasons imo. Our lineup is a 3rd line centre and 2nd line RW away from being sick imo. Stacked. If two of Kassian, Jensen and Schroeder can develop into those roles... watch out.

Absolutely. If that happened, in all trade discussions, I would just be like "No, forget it. Just don't do anything and sit on this" for every proposal.

 

[Shareefruck]

Not since the lockout.

There have been more 7 and 8 seeds in the SCF than there have been 1 seeds. In particular, our conference has sent as many 8 seeds to the finals as it has sent 1 seeds.

Why would you compare 7 AND 8 seeds vs. 1 seeds? What if we went with 6-8 vs. 1-3 or 5-8 vs. 1-4 since the lockout? I would imagine the latter would be ahead in terms of success.

 

[opendoor]

Not since the lockout.

There have been more 7 and 8 seeds in the SCF than there have been 1 seeds. In particular, our conference has sent as many 8 seeds to the finals as it has sent 1 seeds.

When you look at what seed wins the cup the evidence is pretty clear, even since the lockout:

05-06: 2nd (3rd in the league)
06-07: 2nd (3rd in the league)
07-08: 1st (1st in the league)
08-09: 4th (8th in the league)
09-10: 2nd (3rd in the league)
10-11: 4th (7th in the league)
11-12: 8th (13th in the league)

1 team has won without home ice advantage in the 1st round, and they're only the 2nd team to do that since the introduction of the current playoff format. Winning the cup without being a top 8 team in the league was virtually unprecedented until last season which I'll bet will go down as an anomaly.

 

[Scurr]

Absolutely. If that happened, in all trade discussions, I would just be like "No, forget it. Just don't do anything and sit on this" for every proposal.

Best case scenario for us is Ballard and Booth rebounding but getting outplayed by young guys. We flip them for prospects/picks, trade Lu next offseason for the same and replenish the cupboards in what is likely to be a really good draft class.

We have a great core, great goaltending, great role players and great contracts. The last thing we need to complete the puzzle is some great young players. Dare to dream.

 

[Agent007]

When you look at what seed wins the cup the evidence is pretty clear, even since the lockout:

05-06: 2nd (3rd in the league)
06-07: 2nd (3rd in the league)
07-08: 1st (1st in the league)
08-09: 4th (8th in the league)
09-10: 2nd (3rd in the league)
10-11: 4th (7th in the league)
11-12: 8th (13th in the league)

1 team has won without home ice advantage in the 1st round, and they're only the 2nd team to do that since the introduction of the current playoff format. Winning the cup without being a top 8 team in the league was virtually unprecedented until last season which I'll bet will go down as an anomaly.

I think this might be another weird year with the season being only 48 games long.

 

[timw33]

I feel a lot better about the breeze coming from the window with Edler locked up.

I feel so much better with Edler and the rest of the Top 4 signed for the next 4 years and Kes/Bur signed too.

It's all going to come down to our prospects producing on ELCs.

 

[Dado]

Winning the cup without being a top 8 team in the league was virtually unprecedented until last season which I'll bet will go down as an anomaly.

Getting to the cup as a 7/8 seed (post lockout) happens often enough that I don't consider it an anomaly. Once in the finals, winning is a coin toss. From that I conclude that what the Kings did last year is not, in fact, an anomaly.

 

[Fat Tony]

Getting to the cup as a 7/8 seed (post lockout) happens often enough that I don't consider it an anomaly. Once in the finals, winning is a coin toss. From that I conclude that what the Kings did last year is not, in fact, an anomaly.

This makes little sense.

 

[AlphaMale]

Laughable how some people think this isn't even a playoff team anymore. The top 6 is the same as it was in 2011 but what has been exposed is this teams lack of offense after losing Ehrhoff. Sedins would of put up 90-100 points in an 82 game season if Daniel was healthy last year if he was still around. Gilles should of just made him the highest paid D-man on the team at the time and forgot about bringing in Ballard and Booth.

 

[Brooklanders*]

I keep reading posts referring to our window to win the Cup being open for 2 or 3 years.

I love the Canucks, and have been following their fortunes from day one, but I doubt that their window is still open.

I love the Sedins, but does anyone seriously believe they are the type of players that can triumph in the playoffs when the refs put their whistles away. The series vs Boston
is strong evidence that this is true.

And then there is Ryan Kesler. He is an injury waiting to happen. And his production has become less for various reasons.

I guess the fact that the L.A. Kings won the Stanley Cup after just making the playoffs show us that the window is still open for our team. But the evidence of the past 2 or 3 years suggests that it is quite unlikely that the Canucks are a serious contender for the Cup.

I hope I'm wrong.

The Canucks are at a big disadvantage and have been for awhile. The team continues to amass wins in the regular season which limits them in the draft. Right now the Canucks prospects are not all that promising and with the Cap changing next season they arent going to be able to sign quality free agents. This is the way things are designed. Im not saying that the Oilers all of a sudden will be great. If a team has low draft picks they have to make the most of it. Detroit has been successful because they have done great at this aspect. To a lesser degree I have to give Vancouver some props as well. However other than the likes of Erhoff, Edler, Burrows the Canucks havent had enough diamonds in recent memory.