Prospect Info: Do we overvalue our prospects?

[Nithoniniel]

I think I've honestly seen more complaints in the style of: "Oh geez, Leafs? Now Prospect X will be better than Gretzky of course" than actual clear cases of overrating.

And yeah, I think there's more people who do the absolute opposite too.

Difference is mostly that there's always so much discussion about our prospects, they (and their fanbases overrating) doesn't go as unnoticed as with some other franchises.

To OP:

I dont, but others on here do.

Same here. All my opinions are absolute truths too, compared to the clueless guesses of others.

 

[CBinTokyo]

Same here. All my opinions are absolute truths too, compared to the clueless guesses of others.

I know you are joking, but as far as I'm concerned you are one of the most objective posters on here, and I think you work hard to be so.

 

[hullsy47]

My thoughts:

Kapanen- He's definitely not ready for the NHL. He shows flashes but he's too much of a perimeter player. Good acceleration. I don't think he's a blue chip prospect. Others are higher on him than I am.

Brown- Mediocre skater and size. Good motor and a history of producing- Juniors, AHL. I think because of his work ethic and general grittiness he can work himself into a top 6 or top 9 role on this team. Underrated prospect that has a chance to surprise.

Sparks- He's been pretty bad at times but his fundamentals are decent, unlike Reimer, who always had things to nitpick on (played too deep, no glove, no good rebound control). His biggest problem is he can't track the puck well. Goalies are hard to project but he's not a long term solution for us right now.

Nylander- Still need to decide if we play him Center or Wing. He has elite level skills- hands, skating, vision, etc. He definitely has first-line potential but he needs to work on his 2-way game. Our best prospect right now in the system.

Harrington- Can't skate so I don't think he'll ever cut it in the NHL as anything more than a bottom pairing D-man at best despite how much Babcock supposedly likes him.

Sosh- He's basically our potential replacement for Komarov with some upside. His motor puts others to shame.

you ll take some heat but your spot on ,in one regard id love a calder cup win ,but in another regard id love to see Mathews ,zaitsev shine at the world champ;ionship ,and marner and timoshov face each other in the mem cup

should the marlies not face adversity well ,it ll seal the fate of some of the the overhyped prospects ,, good post

 

[Mad Brills*]

The non marner/nylander/matthews ones. Yes. but those 3 have put up remarkable production compared to historical precedent.

 

[pheasant]

Yes we definitely over rate some players. All fans tend to do that for their respective teams. Mathews, Marner and Nylander are worth the hype they get.

This is true, for the most part. What you hear about the guys at the top of the list (Mathews, Marner and Nylander) is pretty much acurate.

There is a real problem with lower rated prospects, though. People discuss what their absolute ceiling is, their max potential. And then they tend to believe that each prospect will unquestionably achieve that status. But it's impossible. We have a dozen prospects that could end up as 'middle 6' type forwards. But it could end up that half never play a full NHL season.

I called Travis Dermott an "expendable B prospect" a while ago on the trade board. I then got attacked by Leafs fans saying "not available in trade talks" and "future top 4 D" and stuff like that. Let's not pretend this guy can't be moved.

 

[ACC1224]

Not sure I've ever overrated a Prospect, at least that I recall.

 

[StevieBlunder]

It's not like we have anything else to attach any value to besides our coach.

Therefore, I'm all for it. They've lived up to the hype so far.

 

[Doc300c]

Even though the Marlies lost last night, I think Kapanen was the most dangerous player on the ice for the Marlies.

 

[Jack Bauer]

New to the forum entirely, so if there's already a thread on this topic, feel free to redirect me.

The title of the post is mostly rhetorical IMO... of course we do - I think every team, as well as their fans do, naturally. But how much? I drafted Connor Brown in a keeper league last year after with one of the last overall picks (75) when I had him ranked in my top 30. We're all more familiar with the names of our own prospects and we've all read enough of the optimistic articles about them.

But lets be honest, there are about 15-20 leaf prospects who probably get tossed around in different discussions of having a legitimate NHL future, how realistic is that?

Some examples:

What the hell is Kasperi Kapanen, really? I've heard anything from career AHLer to NHL 1st liner - he's probably the most ambiguous case of them all. Either way, it seems like he's going to be a guy who's got a couple years left before we find out for sure. but is the latter even remotely realistic?? on any NHL team??

Connor Brown - 4th-2nd liner could be anywhere in there and that is a question that probably doesn't ever get answered for some players (i.e. Komarov, Bozak, Kadri all 1st-3rd)

Is Willie a bonafied 1st liner in the future??

Will Sparks or Biebeau ever even be backups?

Is Harrington a top 4/6/7th?

Sosh/Hyman/Johnson/The other Knights kid - Piccinicch or whatever the hell it is - when do they project to at least fulfill whatever potential we seem to think it is and how crazy are our dreams for some??

To put it into perspective:

Our top 3 prospects(after our #1 pick...) would be the #1 prospect on almost any NHL team.

Our secondary prospects playing pro (Carrick, Kapanen, Brown, Hyman, Soshnikov) would be a top 3 prospect on most NHL teams.

Our junior prospects (Dermott, Timashov, Neilson, Bracco, Dzierkals) are probably twice the depth of most NHL teams.

Are we over-rating some players? Hindsight will eventually say yes. But all of them? No. We have the deepest prospect group in the league.

And 3 picks in the top 31 this year to add to it.

Maybe none of them develop into what we expect. Maybe they all achieve more then we want. Time will tell. And the more kids you have, the better chance you have of finding a player.

 

[Mess]

All fan bases tend to overvalue their own prospect pools as bias creeps into rankings and expectations. Its human nature really to not see the blemishes present by being too emotionally involved.

Leaf fans believed Burke was building up the Leafs prospect pool while outside sources had the Leafs ranked in the bottom 5 and the THN even as low as 28th.

Now after all the Biggs, Ross, Blacker, Ryan, D'Amigo, McKegg etc etc have been cleared amounting to little it was proven that overvaluing was present believing the system was good despite all the frivolous trading of high picks. .

As good as Hunter's eye for talent might be the same thing is happening again as only a few of his picks are likely to pan out as expected and in time many will fall by the wayside.

 

[TheProspector]

Of course. It's an entire forum dedicated to prospects. "Hockey's Future".

 

[Mad Brills*]

All fan bases tend to overvalue their own prospect pools as bias creeps into rankings and expectations. Its human nature really to not see the blemishes present by being too emotionally involved.

Leaf fans believed Burke was building up the Leafs prospect pool while outside sources had the Leafs ranked in the bottom 5 and the THN even as low as 28th.

Now after all the Biggs, Ross, Blacker, Ryan, D'Amigo, McKegg etc etc have been cleared amounting to little it was proven that overvaluing was present believing the system was good despite all the frivolous trading of high picks. .

As good as Hunter's eye for talent might be the same thing is happening again as only a few of his picks are likely to pan out as expected and in time many will fall by the wayside.

Even then, the top end guys should work out so it doesn't really matter

 

[slozo]

I think I've honestly seen more complaints in the style of: "Oh geez, Leafs? Now Prospect X will be better than Gretzky of course" than actual clear cases of overrating.

And yeah, I think there's more people who do the absolute opposite too.

Difference is mostly that there's always so much discussion about our prospects, they (and their fanbases overrating) doesn't go as unnoticed as with some other franchises.

This.

The sheer volume and mass of our fandom means other fans will just hear everything the Leafs fans are saying - good, bad or indifferent. So that really influences the negativity we get.

There are a lot of crazy kid optimists out there that overrate, sure; but that's every fan base. We just have more of them, not a higher percentage of them. I would actually wager that the Leafs have the largest fan base of absolute pessimist fans of any hockey market (save for perhaps the Habs, they are pretty harsh on themselves).

 

[Mess]

Even then, the top end guys should work out so it doesn't really matter

Well most teams do hit or should hit on top 10 overall picks.

A prospect pool usually loses top end prospects to the NHL early and the system is usually graded on the later round picks.

 

[Macallan18]

Same here. All my opinions are absolute truths too, compared to the clueless guesses of others.

Exactly!!
What I think people overrate are draft picks. I know they are valuable, but some are so keen to give up established players for a pick that if we are lucky will turn into... an established player.

 

[thewave]

Yes. Most do.

 

[The CyNick]

My issue is with people who slot every guy we draft into the future plans.

Mess mentioned a bunch of guys. If you look back on old posts you will see a lot of people pencil those guys for top 6-9 roles. You rarely see people on here say I think 70% of our picks from every draft will be busts. Or even awknowledge that that's the most likely scenario.

I'm from Missouri. Until they've done it in the show, I believe very few well pan out. Save for guys like Matthews who one would think would be a lock based on his skill set and accomplishments. But Timashov? I'll take a wait and see approach before putting him in my future lines.

 

[Jack Bauer]

Exactly!!
What I think people overrate are draft picks. I know they are valuable, but some are so keen to give up established players for a pick that if we are lucky will turn into... an established player.

Because established players have a small shelf life in most cases.

Right now with Holland we can get a pick for him or lose him for nothing over time due to our internal depth. Why wouldn't you take the pick?

At some point you have to stop waiting on development and cash out if you can.

 

[Jack Bauer]

My issue is with people who slot every guy we draft into the future plans.

Mess mentioned a bunch of guys. If you look back on old posts you will see a lot of people pencil those guys for top 6-9 roles. You rarely see people on here say I think 70% of our picks from every draft will be busts. Or even awknowledge that that's the most likely scenario.

I'm from Missouri. Until they've done it in the show, I believe very few well pan out. Save for guys like Matthews who one would think would be a lock based on his skill set and accomplishments. But Timashov? I'll take a wait and see approach before putting him in my future lines.

We are fans. Not GM's.

Our future projections don't have to be realistic based on random %'s.

 

[RoyalCitySlicker]

We are fans. Not GM's.

Our future projections don't have to be realistic based on random %'s.

So then the prospects are overrated, no?

If projections are not realistic or based on percentage liklihood of future success, what are the projections based on other than hope?

If Nylander ends up as a 60-75 point player, a lot of people will wrongly label him a bust.

An almost PPG player at 9 or where ever they got him is hardly a bust. Just because a player doesn't live up to outrageous expectations does not automatically mean he is a bust.

The Leafs have a great prospect pool made up of perhaps a future star or two, a few others who might have a real long NHL career and also a bunch of players who will never get much more than a cup of coffee. It's the reality of the draft and draft picks.

Overrating of prospects is done by every fan base of every team....fan bases are not objective, hence they can't objectively judge prospects. It's not a slight on the fan base or posters here, it is what it is. Part of the fun of being a fan is hoping that everything will turn out best case scenario - no matter how unlikely that is.

 

[Macallan18]

Because established players have a small shelf life in most cases.

Right now with Holland we can get a pick for him or lose him for nothing over time due to our internal depth. Why wouldn't you take the pick?

At some point you have to stop waiting on development and cash out if you can.

oh, I am all in for trading Holland!
It's when people say trade Gardiner that I get all flustered.
Trade Gardiner and play who in his place???

 

[cujoflutie]

Isn’t the stereotype that “leaf fans consider themselves stanley cup contenders every year†still going on? I don’t worry about it, I worry more about whether it’s unhealthy for non-leaf fans to have such a big obsession over them.

 

[Jack Bauer]

So then the prospects are overrated, no?

If projections are not realistic or based on percentage liklihood of future success, what are the projections based on other than hope?

If Nylander ends up as a 60-75 point player, a lot of people will wrongly label him a bust.

An almost PPG player at 9 or where ever they got him is hardly a bust. Just because a player doesn't live up to outrageous expectations does not automatically mean he is a bust.

The Leafs have a great prospect pool made up of perhaps a future star or two, a few others who might have a real long NHL career and also a bunch of players who will never get much more than a cup of coffee. It's the reality of the draft and draft picks.

Overrating of prospects is done by every fan base of every team....fan bases are not objective, hence they can't objectively judge prospects. It's not a slight on the fan base or posters here, it is what it is. Part of the fun of being a fan is hoping that everything will turn out best case scenario - no matter how unlikely that is.

Yep. It's pro sports...hope is all anyone has.

Putting peak expectations on paper for a player who may not meet them doesn't make him a bust if he falls a bit short.

Just look at Jonathan Toews stat line...stats are only 1 part of what players bring...if you expected 80 points in his peak....and who wouldn't?....then you would technically be disappointed I guess.

If Nylander is a 60-65 point player in his peak but an elite 2 way top 6 forward on a Cup contender then the people saying he's a bust can absolutely believe that.

 

[Jack Bauer]

oh, I am all in for trading Holland!
It's when people say trade Gardiner that I get all flustered.
Trade Gardiner and play who in his place???

You don't need to acquire a replacement to move someone out.

I'm not big on Gardiner.

I'd move him for the right offer.

Doesn't mean I have anyone to play his place outside of Zaitsev and a prospect or 2 who may deserve more ice time.

People are allowed to not be big on a player and wish he were moved without acquiring immediate replacements for them.

Especially when you just finished 30th overall.

 

[Jack Bauer]

Isn’t the stereotype that “leaf fans consider themselves stanley cup contenders every year†still going on? I don’t worry about it, I worry more about whether it’s unhealthy for non-leaf fans to have such a big obsession over them.

I stopped giving those people time and simply laugh them off.

If all you have to say about a pro sports team is some old cliche'd remark and childish putdown dating back to the 80's then why should anyone respect your opinoin?

As you say, the obsession from non-Leaf fans is what a lot of us don't get. But that makes it even sweeter then we do have success.

Anyone above the age of ~30 remembers the talk of us being a "retirement home" under Quinn because he had a team full of vets and free agents wanted to play for him. We were laughed at because players like Cujo, Belfour, Roberts, Mogilny, Corson, and Thomas wanted to play here.

People create a different standard for us then any other team. A St. Louis finally has a good playoff run and it's expected because they built for it over the past few years. But when we do it, we've rebuilt since 1967....the fact the Blues have as well never seems to come up to those people though...