Prospect Info: Do we overvalue our prospects?

[olaf1393]

New to the forum entirely, so if there's already a thread on this topic, feel free to redirect me.

The title of the post is mostly rhetorical IMO... of course we do - I think every team, as well as their fans do, naturally. But how much? I drafted Connor Brown in a keeper league last year after with one of the last overall picks (75) when I had him ranked in my top 30. We're all more familiar with the names of our own prospects and we've all read enough of the optimistic articles about them.

But lets be honest, there are about 15-20 leaf prospects who probably get tossed around in different discussions of having a legitimate NHL future, how realistic is that?

Some examples:

What the hell is Kasperi Kapanen, really? I've heard anything from career AHLer to NHL 1st liner - he's probably the most ambiguous case of them all. Either way, it seems like he's going to be a guy who's got a couple years left before we find out for sure. but is the latter even remotely realistic?? on any NHL team??

Connor Brown - 4th-2nd liner could be anywhere in there and that is a question that probably doesn't ever get answered for some players (i.e. Komarov, Bozak, Kadri all 1st-3rd)

Is Willie a bonafied 1st liner in the future??

Will Sparks or Biebeau ever even be backups?

Is Harrington a top 4/6/7th?

Sosh/Hyman/Johnson/The other Knights kid - Piccinicch or whatever the hell it is - when do they project to at least fulfill whatever potential we seem to think it is and how crazy are our dreams for some??

Click to read more...

 

[Terrible GM]

I have no doubt we do at times, but every fan base does. Difference is there are a lot more leaf fans than other teams.

And welcome.

 

[Joey Hoser]

Basically every page of every thread has somebody saying that people are overrating/overhyping whatever that thread is about.

 

[firstemperor]

My thoughts:

Kapanen- He's definitely not ready for the NHL. He shows flashes but he's too much of a perimeter player. Good acceleration. I don't think he's a blue chip prospect. Others are higher on him than I am.

Brown- Mediocre skater and size. Good motor and a history of producing- Juniors, AHL. I think because of his work ethic and general grittiness he can work himself into a top 6 or top 9 role on this team. Underrated prospect that has a chance to surprise.

Sparks- He's been pretty bad at times but his fundamentals are decent, unlike Reimer, who always had things to nitpick on (played too deep, no glove, no good rebound control). His biggest problem is he can't track the puck well. Goalies are hard to project but he's not a long term solution for us right now.

Nylander- Still need to decide if we play him Center or Wing. He has elite level skills- hands, skating, vision, etc. He definitely has first-line potential but he needs to work on his 2-way game. Our best prospect right now in the system.

Harrington- Can't skate so I don't think he'll ever cut it in the NHL as anything more than a bottom pairing D-man at best despite how much Babcock supposedly likes him.

Sosh- He's basically our potential replacement for Komarov with some upside. His motor puts others to shame.

 

[Schenn]

"Now hold on, Lois! A boat's a boat, but the Mystery Box could be anything! It could even be a boat!"

^
HF reasoning in a nutshell.

 

[A1LeafNation]

No our prospects are that good at the levels they are playing at and getting accolades from the experts.

Dont let the rest of the leagues fans get to you, they are getting jealous real fast!

 

[Orfieus]

I don't have a problem with it TBH. It just means we value who we have. Some people do go overboard (comparing Marner to McDavid or comparing Matthews to McDavid) but overall we are just fans admiring our young kids.

 

[Swervin81]

At times, yeah.

Hell, in the past, we used to hype prospects to the moon even though we were really kinda in denial about how we had very few guys, if any at all. Now? It's actually justified given that most experts are even agreeing.

 

[McMatthews]

Not anymore than any other team.

The difference is that as of right now, we have the best group of prospects in hockey.

It may seem like hype but think it's observation and factual.

 

[Craig Button]

We did before our top prospects were Mathews, Nylander & Marner.

We're not guilty of it now.

 

[DD03]

"Now hold on, Lois! A boat's a boat, but the Mystery Box could be anything! It could even be a boat!"

^
HF reasoning in a nutshell.

qft.

 

[34]

I have no doubt we do at times, but every fan base does. Difference is there are a lot more leaf fans than other teams.

And welcome.

Every fan base does is right.

 

[613Leafer]

Some guys that this forum loves will end up busting.

In saying that, I think the Leafs objectively have one of the top top farm systems in the league. While some guys will bust, some guys should also exceed expectations. We have enough talent and enough depth that there should be a bunch of NHLers coming out of this group. And with 12 picks, including the 1st OA, a late 1st, and two 2nds in this draft, the farm will only be getting better.

 

[TLeafsFan]

We did before our top prospects were Mathews, Nylander & Marner.

We're not guilty of it now.

Yeah, not exactly like our top prospect is Tyler Biggs anymore.

 

[Craig Button]

Yeah, not exactly like our top prospect is Tyler Biggs anymore.

Bahahaha
God those were awful times.

 

[Pinto]

Fans of every team here do, HF will tell you only we do though.

 

[Purity*]

Yeah, not exactly like our top prospect is Tyler Biggs anymore.

You just had to go there didn't you


Oh god just thinking about that makes me wanna puke.

 

[-DeMo-]

it's also amazing how alot of fans can be proven wrong aswell, Dumba take for example was a consensus bust on here for about the first 2 years after his draft. now everyone is trying to put together a package so we can deal for him as he's suppose to be the next up and coming player. another player I seen being a consensus bust was Faksa but he's starting to look pretty good in Dallas. what I find is that mostly there's no middle ground either you trash/bust or your the best thing since slice bread.

 

[TLeafsFan]

You just had to go there didn't you


Oh god just thinking about that makes me wanna puke.

At least we can all finally consider the palate fully cleansed.

 

[Stand Witness]

I don't think we overvalue our top end guys. They really are as great as they are.

Our 3-probably 12ish are about the same as id say mosts teams 2/3-5/6. Those are talented players that you hope a couple become 2nd liners/top 4 D. So while they may not be top talent they seem to be quality prospects.

The biggest reason is a lot of our prospects have high potential but also seem more likely to bust. Although I do question this as picking guys like Bracco and Timashov in the spots we did seem like a high expected bust rate anyways.

In general, yes we have a top 3 prospect group and arguably the 3 of the top 5 prospects in the world if you include Matthews. Our depth is excellent as well.

Some may overrate our prospects in the grand scheme of things but when you compare to other prospect pools it is easy to see why some might perceive it as overrating because our prospect pool truly is that great.

 

[trellaine201]

It's natural. Every team does.

 

[TMLegend]

Yes. Many posters were saying Mitch Marners floor was RNH not very long ago. A quick check of recent 4th overall picks means it's no guarantee you get a star at that slot.

Sam Bennett, Seth Jones, Griffin Reinhart, Adam Larsson, Ryan Johansen, Evander Kane, Alex Pietrangelo, Thomas Hickey and Nicklas Backstrom have been selected 4th overall between 2006-2014.

You're hoping for quality top-6 Forward or top-4 D, anything else is exceeding expectations.

 

[TLeafsFan]

It's natural. Every team does.

Correction. Every team's FANS do, unless your name is Burke or Nonis, then you grossly overvalue both the state of your team and the value of your players.

 

[Blair]

Welcome. Hard not to raise an eyebrow when a brand new person makes a topic like this, but the benefit of the doubt is yours.

Many fans naturally overvalue their prospects. Some leaf fans undervalue them also. We're in amazing shape if close to half of our stable of young players pan out but there will undoubtedly be a lot who don't. I think most of us are able to realize that. It's the guys with high end potential I'm really keeping my fingers crossed for. There's no reason to think Marner for instance won't be an impact player or even a star but it hasn't happened yet. A lot of question marks still in terms of what exactly we have at this point.

 

[Buds17]

Probably. Prospects represent a great deal of what we're trying to build here. Early projections seem solid. We'll see what happens.