There are generally two models to win the Cup, with one being a lot more common.
The most common place model is two elite forwards - typically centers - who typically do not play together. This model has been repeated over and over for decades going back to Gretzky-Messier, to Lemieux-Francis, to Yzerman-Federov, to Sakic-Forsberg to Modano-Nieuwendyk, and over the last decade or so with Crosby-Malkin, Datsyuk-Zetterberg, Lecavalier-Richards, Staal-Weight, and most recently with Toews-Kane (I know Kane isn't a center, but he plays like one after the draw is taken). If you have one elite center on your team, and an average 2nd line center, you are pretty much doomed (unless you can do the 2nd model).
Two star players to build around. Typically there is an allstar d-man of elite status and a great goalie, but not always. Fair to say we are not tracking on this, even if Zibby improves quite a bit. Just not realistic to envision Turris and Zib at that top echelon level. Really, this is most commonly done thanks for some top overall picks and some lottery luck.
The other way, which is less common, has been done by New Jersey and Anaheim back in the day, and more recently with Boston and Los Angeles, which at least bodes well for us in that it has become a bit more common. This is the model we'll have to follow and it's generally a bit more fluid.
This model is involves tremendous depth at center with some elite centers, albeit not quite at the level of the perennial allstar , but involves more depth. Jersey did it back in the day with Gomez-Nieuwendyk-Holik-Madden. The Ducks beat us with MacDonald-Getzlaf-Pahlsson-Rob Niedermeyer(MacDonald playing with a hall-of-famer Selanne of course). Boston was loaded with Bergeron-Krejci-Seguin-Kelly (and hasn't won it since moving Seguin). And LA has been loaded with Kopitar-Carter-Richards-Stoll.
That is some serious depth down the middle, with truly elite level checking centers on the 4th line basically.
The thing is with this other model, is there is typically more to it required. These teams often had other tremendous things going for them at the same time. The Devils had two Norris calibre defenders in Stevens and Niedermeyer, along with one the best goalies of all time in Brodeur. The Ducks also had two Norris calibre defenders in Pronger and Niedermeyer, along with a Vezina calibre Giguerre. The Bruins had Norris winner Chara and a stacked blueline in front of a Vezina winning Thomas. And LA had a Norris winning Doughty with another stacked blueline, along with a Vezina calibre Quick. And all the teams had good wingers too, for the most part.
This is the model we're tracking for, and I think we have several of the pieces to perhaps have the center depth, along with the required forwards. We're missing a real workhorse d-man for the 2nd pairing for sure, and all of this assumes some of our young players continue to progress and turn into the players we'll hope they will (in particular Lazar, Pageau and likely one of Prince or Puempel).
I do think this is the reason Murray thinks we need one more elite forward (could be a LW) or top 4 defender though. Or both. They look at this model to an extent and find us falling short in the next 2-3 years, unless we have another piece or two. But I do think we're getting closer.
