Do we give up on our Goalies too easily?

[jmart21]

But when is the last time anyone can recall a player on the Leafs getting endless time to develop?

That is true, sometimes a change of scenery is useful for a player. But a deal like Tlusty for Paradis never made any sense to me. Schenn, on the other hand was clearly mishandled in his development.

Tlusty for Paradis is the same thing as Schenn for JVR; just on a less hyped level.

Both young players struggling, in need of a change of scenery. We just got the Flyers end of that deal.

 

[ForSpareParts*]

Are people really talking about Tlusty still? Where would fit on this team if we had him? Do we want Tlusty when we have all these other dynamic players?

 

[Damisoph]

The Bruins didn't want Pogge. It wasn't the Leafs choosing one over the other.

I had never heard that, but cool. It boils down to the same thing in my mind, JFJ chose Pogge over Rask.

 

[ACC1224]

I had never heard that, but cool. It boils down to the same thing in my mind, JFJ chose Pogge over Rask.

More like he chose Raycroft over Rask.

I'd like to think if it were up to JFjr he would have moved Pogge.

 

[Loosie]

But when is the last time anyone can recall a player on the Leafs getting endless time to develop?

In all honesty I'd say Kadri. The Leafs were actually patient with him and it's worked. Everyone including Don Cherry wanted to be playing him as an 18 year old, and he was sent back to junior then two season in the AHL (with some sopt duty) before finally cracking the NHL full time last year.

 

[Elimanator]

LA also traded Bernier and Scrivens. Vancouver traded Schneider and Luongo. Atlanta/Winnipeg traded Lehtonen. Chicago let Niemi go. Montreal traded Halak. Ottawa traded Elliott. Philly traded Bobrovsky. Columbus traded Mason. etc. etc.

Goalies are extremely difficult to project, especially younger goalies. One year, on one team, they'll be sub-par and get outplayed by other goalies in the system. The next, on a new team, they'll be absolutely brilliant and make you regret ever moving them. I'm not going to complain about our goalie situation this year; who knows how well Rask would have developed in our system or if Scrivens could play like he has for LA/Edmonton.

Ottawa also traded Bishop for Conacher, heck Conacher was just on waivers and bishop in Tampa looks to win the Vezina so you never know

 

[likeabosski]

Goalies are very hot/cold and have very streaky careers. It's rare for a goalie to be consistently good throughout their career (ie. Martin Brodeur up until age caught up with him in recent years).

Jonathan Bernier has one more year on his contract to prove that he's worthy of the big bucks. So if the Leafs re-sign him to a rich deal, hopefully we don't get burned.

As for James Reimer, given his shrinking role on this roster, it might not even be worthwhile to give him a qualifying offer ($1.8 million+). Reimer's (Goals Versus Threshold) GVT is only 1.9 as of March 10th (it's probably higher now for sure though). A GVT of 1.9 means that James Reimer prevented 1.9 more goals this season compared to what a typical minimum wage, "replacement level" ($550,000) goaltender would. The GVS (Goals Versus Salary) rule states that 3 goals caused/prevented = 1 win = $1 million value. The 3-1-1 was universally accepted in hockey for awhile. The author of the GVT and GVS stats says that the true value these days is probably no more than 2.8 goals caused/prevented per $1 million. Even less now actually with the rising cap space. Assuming 2.8 goals caused/prevented = $1 million though, James Reimer's GVT would have to be 3.5 at least by the end of the season to justify a $1.8 million salary. Reimer is barely playing these days. There are other backup goaltenders out there who can do Reimer's job for a lower cap hit. A guy like Reimer needs to split starting duties or be given a more substantial backup role in order to be paid $1.8 million+. Unless he can steal Bernier's job, it's best for his career to leave anyway.

 

[KuleminFan41]

Pogge had a great world junior where he was a big part in Canada winning gold though I think Rask had a better tournament if I recall correctly not sure

 

[ToMaLe]

hated JFJ the second I heard of the Rask trade...just a bone headed trade...mind you that was not the only stupid trade that he made....didnt mind the Scrivens trade and if we traded Reimer for the right return, I would be ok with that...

 

[My Sweet Shadow]

Ottawa also traded Bishop for Conacher, heck Conacher was just on waivers and bishop in Tampa looks to win the Vezina so you never know

Thanks, I forgot about that one. Another example that just goes to show how mercurial the goalie market is.

 

[Marian Gaborik]

Pogge had a great world junior where he was a big part in Canada winning gold though I think Rask had a better tournament if I recall correctly not sure

Rask was named goalie of the tournament that year.

 

[hoglund]

No, everyone here just exaggerates everything to one extreme or the other. From Reimer being done to "see, I told you he'd be fine!" based on two periods of play.

I agree with this, but not completely. Too many including Carlyle gave up too quickly to a system that WAS working. For Oct, Nov and most of Dec both Goalies were the starters (1A and 1B) this allowed both goalies to stay sharp and not get burned out from being outshot many nights. Why they changed that still puzzles me, it was working, why fix something that isn't broken?

 

[FerrisRox]

Everyone thought Pogge would be the better goalie, we dealt Rask for a Calder Winning goalie, in hopes he'd bounce back from his Sophmore year. He didn't. It was a risky trade that didn't work out. Unfourtunatley, neither did Pogge.

First of all, not "everyone" thought Pogge would be the better goaltender. The deal was widely criticized outside of Toronto and Rask was named a 1st team All-Star and the top goaltender at the World Junior Championships - a tournament that Pogge also played in. This issue wasn't really so much that the Leafs picked the wrong goalie to trade away, the issue was why were they trading a goalie for Andrew Raycroft in the first place?

Saying that Raycroft was acquired hoping he would "bounce back from his sophomore year" makes this trade sound like a more reasonable gamble then it was. Raycroft was really bad in '05-'06. His save percentage was .879 and he lost his job out-right to Tim Thomas, who, at the time, was considered a journeyman minor-leaguer. As if that wasn't bad enough, he then lost his back-up job to Hannu Toivinen and became a third-stringer and a healthy scratch. The Bruins were simply looking to dump a contract and the Maple Leafs, inexplicably, offered up a top-tier prospect in return.

His fall from grace with the Bruins was fairly predictable too. The writing was on the wall coming into that year. He was rookie of the year in '03-'04 and the following year, during the lock-out, he went to play over in Europe and was so bad in the Finnish league that he lost the starters job pretty early on to Mikka Lehto and spent the bulk of his time in Finland on the bench.

 

[dubey]

Everyone knows we let some stellar talent slip through the system in past years.

From Tuukka Rask, who's playing amazingly in Boston and one of the major reasons Finland won a Bronze medal in the Olympics.

Ben Scrivens who's now stopping 50 shots in Edmonton, and looks like a possible future number one.

To now, James Reimer who according to some rumours was shopped around the trade-deadline. IMO passed up on for the 'more attractive' Jonathan Bernier. But yesterday, he showed us that he's still a great goalie, and will be wherever he goes.

Do we have a hard time holding on to good Goalies, what do you guys think?

Really have to question how often (if ever) you watch this team if you have to ask that question

 

[SprDaVE]

We gave up on Vesa Toskala too soon.

 

[zeke]

The only thing we do wrong with goalies is ignore save percentage.

We ignored it too long when it was telling us that raycroft, toskala, gustavsson and pogge all sucked.

We ignored it when it told us reimer and scrivens were quite good.


The lesson? Stop ignoring save percentage.

 

[daveleaf]

Another mindless thread. It would be wonderful if people sharpen up with their Leaf history every now and then, not including current happenings.

 

[daveleaf]

I agree with this, but not completely. Too many including Carlyle gave up too quickly to a system that WAS working. For Oct, Nov and most of Dec both Goalies were the starters (1A and 1B) this allowed both goalies to stay sharp and not get burned out from being outshot many nights. Why they changed that still puzzles me, it was working, why fix something that isn't broken?

Because Bernier is a better goalie. You don't have to be a nuclear physicist to see that but cue all the BS armchair coaches and GM's on here.

 

[dimi78]

this is the thing

Would Rask be the same player [because he pretty much developed/grew up in the Boston system for the most part] today if he grew up/developed on the Leafs. He could still be great, or we could have ruined him.

Gustvasson was a hot mess here (and a lot of it apparently had to do with Allaire)

if we don't trade Scrivens, we don't have Bernier. I'd do that trade every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

He would have won a Vezina by now. Playing with Boston has taken away from just how good he is. If he were to go down due to injury I'll show everybody just how overgeneralized "SYSTEM" talk is when talking the impact on goalies. There's no starting point for any system without goaltending. They're on an Island themselves that separate in there development curves than any other position. There's no real way to develop goalies they're good cause they're good and is also the hardest position for sustainability. It's the most important position in hockey no different for the Boston Bruins, everything a team strides to do starts from having stability in net.

Boston turned the corner when Thomas came in and broke out not because of the system, Tampa turned the corner 2 times when Khabibulin came in they won the cup and now with Bishop not because of system.

There's tones of examples but nothing better than the 8 year playoff drought with our Leafs... Didn't turn the corner until we got a strong season from Riemer last season.

The old saying of "show me a good goalie and I'll show you a good coach" is the most honest saying in hockey. Again it's because without goaltending you have no starting point. That's why most GM's have issues putting there eggs with young guys in net cause the most pressure for the success of a team lies in that position.

 

[achtungbaby]

I can say one thing with complete certainty, we definitely gave up on Allan Bester too soon.

 

[likeabosski]

Yeah if you don't have good goaltending, you are ****ed. The New Jersey Devils would be in a playoff spot right now if they had Cory Schneider in net for almost all the games and didn't split duties with Martin Brodeur so often. Brodeur is a legend but he is past his prime. Cory Schenider's save % is much better than his so I don't think you can blame New Jersey's defense.

 

[uncleherman77]

We gave up on Vesa Toskala too soon.

Almost the anniversary of this goal :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L9WuzswaKHs

 

[Gary Nylund]

Goalies are very hot/cold and have very streaky careers. It's rare for a goalie to be consistently good throughout their career (ie. Martin Brodeur up until age caught up with him in recent years).

Jonathan Bernier has one more year on his contract to prove that he's worthy of the big bucks. So if the Leafs re-sign him to a rich deal, hopefully we don't get burned.

As for James Reimer, given his shrinking role on this roster, it might not even be worthwhile to give him a qualifying offer ($1.8 million+). Reimer's (Goals Versus Threshold) GVT is only 1.9 as of March 10th (it's probably higher now for sure though). A GVT of 1.9 means that James Reimer prevented 1.9 more goals this season compared to what a typical minimum wage, "replacement level" ($550,000) goaltender would. The GVS (Goals Versus Salary) rule states that 3 goals caused/prevented = 1 win = $1 million value. The 3-1-1 was universally accepted in hockey for awhile. The author of the GVT and GVS stats says that the true value these days is probably no more than 2.8 goals caused/prevented per $1 million. Even less now actually with the rising cap space. Assuming 2.8 goals caused/prevented = $1 million though, James Reimer's GVT would have to be 3.5 at least by the end of the season to justify a $1.8 million salary. Reimer is barely playing these days. There are other backup goaltenders out there who can do Reimer's job for a lower cap hit. A guy like Reimer needs to split starting duties or be given a more substantial backup role in order to be paid $1.8 million+. Unless he can steal Bernier's job, it's best for his career to leave anyway.

Interesting post. Food for thought indeed. And 100% agree with bolded part. People often forget just how streaky goalie careers are. In the last 30 years or so the best goalies have been Hasek and Roy, then Brodeur, Belfour and maybe Fuhr. Even they had some ups and downs but everyone else ...

Yeah if you don't have good goaltending, you are ****ed. The New Jersey Devils would be in a playoff spot right now if they had Cory Schneider in net for almost all the games and didn't split duties with Martin Brodeur so often. Brodeur is a legend but he is past his prime. Cory Schenider's save % is much better than his so I don't think you can blame New Jersey's defense.

So true. The goalie is the single most important guy on the team. The fact that the Leafs have Bernier is the reason they will probably make the playoffs this year and anything they accomplish there will be on Bernier's back.

 

[Quares27]

We chose Pogge over Rask... obviously not a good choice but we didn't give up on Rask too easily. We had to make a choice between him or Pogge and we chose Pogge. Other than that we haven't gotten rid of any goalies too easily so I don't see the point of this thread.

 

[SmoggyTwinkles]

I'd point out that we haven't had a bonafide #1 since Eddie Belfour which was almost a decade ago.

Bernier is the best bet we've had in all those years, so I'm going to say no we don't give up on goalies too soon.

The Rask thing....ok sure he's phenomenal, but he also plays behind the Bruins and he's $7m cap hit for 8 years or something. Obviously that was a bad trade but hey those happen to every team in some way.

If Bernier is indeed that #1 for this team like a Belfour/Cujo/Potvin than he's come around at just the right time since even if we had a our goalie of the future years ago the team around him sucked anyway.