Do the Oilers make the playoffs?

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

so were the Flames, Ducks, and Sharks (until the final 10 games)

any team that stays healthy will perform better and injuries can happen to any team...not sure what makes the Oilers so unique

Because for years the Oilers were anything but healthy. Time will tell if last year's health was a blip on the radar of a sign of things to come.

 

[tiger_80]

They should be competing for the division title. The Oilers are the team on the way up. Teams like SJ and Anaheim might have passed their peak. Losing Sekera might hurt in the short term though. Much depends on key players staying healthy. The Oilers also have a lot of young players who may be on the verge of really establishing themselves this year (Klefbom, Benning, Nurse, Slepyshev, Strome).
Jokinen is probably a good addition too.

 

[Porkleaker]

As long as Talbot and McDavid can stay healthy I say we make it in with ease, maybe 1st in the pacific.

 

[thadd]

If we're going strictly by the Vegas odds, we're currently in a 4-way tie for second most likely team to win the cup, with Anaheim, Tampa, and Washington. It's still way too early to make anything more than an educated guess, but at least as far as oddsmakers go, we're counted among the powerhouses now.

I don't see how Washington works their way into the conversation even if Ovechkin comes back from the dead with a 50 goal season.

Not even sure they've got a full roster yet.



As for the Oilers, I'm thinking 1st or 2nd in the Pacific.

Expecting more out of:
Lucic: Hoping he's more emotionally invested in the team now that he's bled with us.
Klefbom: Healthy off-season after his first full season. Thinking he could flirt with 20 goals this year.
At least one of Benning or Nurse: The odds of one of them not upping their game is pretty low considering their age.
Maroon: On a contract year and he claimed that he's going to spend the off-season preparing himself for another career year.
At least one of Caggiula or Slepyshev: See Nurse and Benning.

Addition via subtraction:
Eberle: Missed the net and was 1 dimensional and forced his line-mates to work harder.
Pouliot: That guy was a complete masochist with all the dumb penalties he took.

No reason to believe they'll regress:
McDavid: 1st overall projected generational players don't usually do that so early in their careers.
Larsson: He's still young and we don't throw him in situations he's not used to playing in.
Talbot: Dude is in his prime. Playing all of this games might shorten the length of his prime, but it's only going to pay off now.
Letesnu: Same as Larsson. All we do is ask him to win face-offs and shoot the puck.
Kassian: Only thing that could go wrong is him taking things too far and start taking a lot more dumb penalties. He wasn't so bad with dumb penalties last year.
Russel: Plays a style that drains the life out of a player but I figure he'll be solid for at least the first 2 years of his contract.
Gryba: He's awfully consistent even when he's got getting a lot of games.
Khaira: Still young and not expected to turn into a real game changer and might not play a lot of games, but it's pretty easy to see that we've got a fast and physical 4th liner in him.

Don't count your chickens before they hatch:
Draisaitl: Went on a mad playoff run which nobody could have predicted. If he plays on the 2nd line next year the 80+ points that people are talking about sounds quite lofty.
Puljujarvi: Put up decent point totals in the AHL but people in Bakersfield said that his decision making is still lacking, while he was used sparingly most of the games he played on a very weak Finnish team at the worlds.

New faces:
Jokinen: Unless Caggiula or Slepyshev regress he's going to be a 4th line winger that's going to log minutes on the PK and be a regular in the shoot-out.
Strome: Nobody knows what we've got in this guy. Could be a 2nd line winger, a 3rd line center or even a 3rd line winger. Too soon to tell.

Next to be voted off of the island:
Hopkins: Nice kid that works his but off but if he doesn't either start dominating in the face-off circle or putting up a lot more points he's going to price himself out of Edmonton.

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

It sure looks like the entire team is getting extra fit this year. As others have stated, if Talbot and McDavid are healthy, this team will easily make the playoffs again. If they team is relatively healthy, I think we win the Prez trophy and the cup. They're determined

 

[guymez]

Because for years the Oilers were anything but healthy. Time will tell if last year's health was a blip on the radar of a sign of things to come.

The team was remarkably healthy last season. Very lucky in that regard.

They wont be quite as lucky this season and for that reason I am not expecting a 100+ point season.

Should still make the playoffs though.

 

[nexttothemoon]

I'm going to make a speculative guess that their goal scoring drops this year. I think the forward quality on lines 2-4 is full of potential but it's going to be a mish-mash trying to develop quality lines and getting them all to gel once again.

I actually think the D group is better overall than the forward group currently (other than the top line with McDavid obviously).

Regression amongst the forwards... progression amongst the dmen.


Talbot is the anchor that breaks the tie and whether they make the playoffs or not basically comes down to whether he can play as well as he did last season.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Because for years the Oilers were anything but healthy. Time will tell if last year's health was a blip on the radar of a sign of things to come.

So for years they were "unlucky" to lose some players to injury
Then they have 1 single year where they're relatively healthy and now it's back to being unhealthy?
What kind of logic is that? Lol
Maybe they'll string a few "lucky" years together after years of losing players to injury

 

[thadd]

So for years they were "unlucky" to lose some players to injury
Then they have 1 single year where they're relatively healthy and now it's back to being unhealthy?
What kind of logic is that? Lol
Maybe they'll string a few "lucky" years together after years of losing players to injury

Who do we have that's injury prone?
Klefbom?

That's the only gut I was worried about but he stayed healthy all of last season.
We really don't know if his previous injuries woes were because of how he's built or because of how he was taking care of himself so those days of constantly getting injured could be over for him too.

I could see a guy like Caggiula get injured because he's smaller but goes into the dirty areas.

Don't see us racking up a ton of injuries.

 

[Still DRAI]

I don't see how Washington works their way into the conversation even if Ovechkin comes back from the dead with a 50 goal season.

Not even sure they've got a full roster yet.

To my knowledge, they don't have a full roster!

That said I'm sure that the back to back President's trophies weigh into whatever models the oddsmakers use, and most of their core from those seasons is still intact. If I were to bet myself it sure wouldn't be on the caps, but Ovi and Holtby are still capable of carrying that team.

 

[thadd]

To my knowledge, they don't have a full roster!

That said I'm sure that the back to back President's trophies weigh into whatever models the oddsmakers use, and most of their core from those seasons is still intact. If I were to bet myself it sure wouldn't be on the caps, but Ovi and Holtby are still capable of carrying that team.

Their blueline depth is no longer strong enough. Holtby is going to be tested like Price has been in recent years. Alzner and Shattenkirk are overrated at times but they're better than chop liver.

They don't have crazy depth up front anymore any Ovechkin isn't the best forward on that team anymore. I think I'd rather have Backstrom over Ovechkin at this point and Kuznetsov could pass Ovechkin in the next year or two.

The first jersey I ever bought with my own money was an Ovechkin one. Never gave 2 ***** about the Caps but I really enjoyed watching what Ovechkin was doing early on in his career but he lacks the passion and motivation that he used to bring game in game out.

Caps could easily end up 3rd behind the Jackets and Penguins in the Metropolitan. They've got goalies, too.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

I will say yes based on what I watched last year, in the playoffs and what I see now.

I will say No based on the mood around here about the team on the whole.

 

[NeutralFan88]

Yea. Not a doubt about it. The oilers were pretty healthy like a team should be. Resulted in a good season. More news at 11.

I don't sit up at night worrying about whether we will have injuries. Anything can happen. Maybe a team like cgy loses its horseshoes and gets injuries to top players.

 

[bucks_oil]

my point is there no reason to play Devil's Advocate any more. I feel this team is past that. They are a contender for the Cup now. They have the best player in the world (debatable at the very least), and the top producing duo of players from the past season as well. They have goalie who finished 4th in Vezina voting and should of been a finalist for that award. They have a real top pairing on D now, that should only get better with time and experience. They have depth and balance up front and some good young talent on D. They could of easily been in the Conference final, and my bet is they are hungry for more. If they miss the playoffs this coming season, it will be a HUGE disappointment to the entire organization.

While I fully expect them to make the playoffs and I am a known "optimist/koolaid drinker" around here....

I do still think that now IS the time to start being critical again on management's ability to manage around expectations and risk. The job is, IMO, easier now that so much progress has been made... the gaps and risk are more obvious.

Playing devils advocate: I'm quite concerned about ONE injury killing our season.

While McD is the best C in the league and there is a huge drop off from McD to Drai/Nuge, the fact of the matter is that we have deeeep Cs. We can withstand a loss of any of them.

And our D... Nurse was playing some first line minutes for us two years ago as a rookie... now he's on the 3rd pairing. That alone spells depth. I think we are fine here as well.... One injury (in addition to Sekera) won't sink us.

But... as you say, we got Vezina quality goaltending last year and that WAS the difference between us making the playoffs and missing them. Talbot's impact on our team was phenomenal... but look at our backup. We have no proven backup. This was our biggest weakness and was addressable. Why are we going into the season at risk of a washout based on one injury? If Talbot is injured, we are exceptionally exposed.

 

[NeverForget06]

In terms of Draisaitl's production, I think there are two general scenarios:

He centres his own line, and his productions probably goes down a little bit (maybe 73 points). Although I believe in him, not playing with the best player in the world will obviously have an effect.

The other option is he plays with McDavid and his numbers go up a bit, maybe 85-90 points.

I can't really see either of these being a negative outcome that would make the team worse than last year.

I think the most important factor in terms of goal scoring will be how the rest of the top 6 performs around McDavid and Drai. If Maroon can come close to his production, and one or both of RNH/Strome can find some chemistry somewhere this team will score even more than they did last year.

I also believe that all of our young defencemen will take a step forward at some point. The experience that they all gained last year in the playoffs is invaluable. We have never really seen how that kind of experience will affect this team, and I think it will be very positive.

Overall, although a few injuries could land us in hot water, I think we will be better. The injury argument is a tough one for me. It doesn't really matter how deep this team is if Drai/McDavid/Klef/Larsson goes down. You can't really replace those guys. Of course Talbot would be in that category as well, probably the most important. But really there are only a handful of teams that could handle losing their #1. Nothing to worry about.

 

[Les Pantalons Fancie]

As long as Talbot and McDavid can stay healthy I say we make it in with ease, maybe 1st in the pacific.

This is going to be the defining element. A healthy Talbot, with a lighter work load, should win us 10-15 games on his own; as in stealing games we had no business winning.

 

[bucks_oil]

This is going to be the defining element. A healthy Talbot, with a lighter work load, should win us 10-15 games on his own; as in stealing games we had no business winning.

Talbot is a great asset and our biggest unaddressed risk. The fall from Talbot to LB is actually unmeasurable.... as in we just don't know enough about LB to know whether he can even compete in this league.

And there is no NHL vet backup in the AHL or available via free agency.

I am quite concerned about this potential liability (and I'm a big fan of LB, to be honest... I just think he's the type of player you can't rely on until he proves himself ready).

I think Chia has underestimated Talbot's importance to our success.

 

[thadd]

Talbot is a great asset and our biggest unaddressed risk. The fall from Talbot to LB is actually unmeasurable.... as in we just don't know enough about LB to know whether he can even compete in this league.

And there is no NHL vet backup in the AHL or available via free agency.

I am quite concerned about this potential liability (and I'm a big fan of LB, to be honest... I just think he's the type of player you can't rely on until he proves himself ready).

I think Chia has underestimated Talbot's importance to our success.

I don't think that he's underestimated Talbot's importance. He's just got a limited time table.

Obviously Katz wants the money to keep rolling in and they've gotta compete now because of new building and to keep good young players happy with the team's direction.

If that wasn't the case he wouldn't have been pressured into the Reinhart trade. We could have drafted BPA and continued to just develop naturally for another year kinda like the Jets have.

Heck, he might not have even signed Lucic, but my guts tell me he still would have because he covets players like him especially considering the season before last we were pretty weak physically when it came to player that could log big minutes.

 

[Soundwave]

Yes they will make the playoffs, likely every year for many more years.

Crosby, Ovechkin, Kane have all only missed the playoffs once in their careers -- their rookie seasons.

McDavid is in that tier, I think it'll be pretty much the same story. People still don't understand what impact a player like that has on a franchise, you will see. Not only that a player like tends to elevate other players. You think it's random coincidence that Pittsburgh, Washington, Chicago, etc. all seem to have role players break out all the time? No, this is the superstar effect, IMO the 80s Oilers benefitted from this massively too as I don't know if Messier, Coffey, Anderson, Tikkanen, etc. would've turned out the same way without Gretzky there.

 

[Still DRAI]

Brossoit is at the point in his career where he pretty much has to start getting games as the backup or we'd be better off trading him, so I'm not super worried about him coming into this season. While it's a small sample size, he still put up a 0.928 save percentage over 8 games last year, so I don't think that getting ~0.915 over ~20 games is unreasonable to expect.

Sure, I'm also a bit nervous because we don't really know if he can handle being an NHL backup, but from a cap management and team management perspective I can understand why they'd stick with their up-and-coming backup who's put in his lumps in the ECHL and AHL already.

 

[Soundwave]

People forget last year too our blue line was pretty freaking young. Larsson, Klefbom, Nurse, and Benning's average age was like 21 or 22?

This year I think that group of 4 will be better having more games, especially playoff games, under their belts and be less prone to some of the sloppier stretches of play. As these guys age from now on IMO there will be an element of stability added to the back end.

 

[ujju2]

I don't see how Washington works their way into the conversation even if Ovechkin comes back from the dead with a 50 goal season.

Not even sure they've got a full roster yet.



As for the Oilers, I'm thinking 1st or 2nd in the Pacific.

Expecting more out of:
Lucic: Hoping he's more emotionally invested in the team now that he's bled with us.
Klefbom: Healthy off-season after his first full season. Thinking he could flirt with 20 goals this year.
At least one of Benning or Nurse: The odds of one of them not upping their game is pretty low considering their age.
Maroon: On a contract year and he claimed that he's going to spend the off-season preparing himself for another career year.
At least one of Caggiula or Slepyshev: See Nurse and Benning.

Addition via subtraction:
Eberle: Missed the net and was 1 dimensional and forced his line-mates to work harder.
Pouliot: That guy was a complete masochist with all the dumb penalties he took.

No reason to believe they'll regress:
McDavid: 1st overall projected generational players don't usually do that so early in their careers.
Larsson: He's still young and we don't throw him in situations he's not used to playing in.
Talbot: Dude is in his prime. Playing all of this games might shorten the length of his prime, but it's only going to pay off now.
Letesnu: Same as Larsson. All we do is ask him to win face-offs and shoot the puck.
Kassian: Only thing that could go wrong is him taking things too far and start taking a lot more dumb penalties. He wasn't so bad with dumb penalties last year.
Russel: Plays a style that drains the life out of a player but I figure he'll be solid for at least the first 2 years of his contract.
Gryba: He's awfully consistent even when he's got getting a lot of games.
Khaira: Still young and not expected to turn into a real game changer and might not play a lot of games, but it's pretty easy to see that we've got a fast and physical 4th liner in him.

Don't count your chickens before they hatch:
Draisaitl: Went on a mad playoff run which nobody could have predicted. If he plays on the 2nd line next year the 80+ points that people are talking about sounds quite lofty.
Puljujarvi: Put up decent point totals in the AHL but people in Bakersfield said that his decision making is still lacking, while he was used sparingly most of the games he played on a very weak Finnish team at the worlds.

New faces:
Jokinen: Unless Caggiula or Slepyshev regress he's going to be a 4th line winger that's going to log minutes on the PK and be a regular in the shoot-out.
Strome: Nobody knows what we've got in this guy. Could be a 2nd line winger, a 3rd line center or even a 3rd line winger. Too soon to tell.

Ya missed RNH, unless I'm blind.

 

[ujju2]

Their blueline depth is no longer strong enough. Holtby is going to be tested like Price has been in recent years. Alzner and Shattenkirk are overrated at times but they're better than chop liver.

They don't have crazy depth up front anymore any Ovechkin isn't the best forward on that team anymore. I think I'd rather have Backstrom over Ovechkin at this point and Kuznetsov could pass Ovechkin in the next year or two.

The first jersey I ever bought with my own money was an Ovechkin one. Never gave 2 ***** about the Caps but I really enjoyed watching what Ovechkin was doing early on in his career but he lacks the passion and motivation that he used to bring game in game out.

Caps could easily end up 3rd behind the Jackets and Penguins in the Metropolitan. They've got goalies, too.

My first jersey was an Ovi as well. But I disagree with you here. I actually think this could be good for the Caps, as long as Ovi rebounds, which I think he will. Every cup-winning team has it's share of unknown players who step it up when it counts. Usually younger guys. I think it'll be good for some of the Caps younger guys to get more time and opportunities.

 

[thadd]

Ya missed RNH, unless I'm blind.

I didn't feel like dragging the kid through the mud. Added him for you.

My first jersey was an Ovi as well. But I disagree with you here. I actually think this could be good for the Caps, as long as Ovi rebounds, which I think he will. Every cup-winning team has it's share of unknown players who step it up when it counts. Usually younger guys. I think it'll be good for some of the Caps younger guys to get more time and opportunities.

It's possible, but unlikely.
I watched around 20 caps games last year and he's a totally different player than he was 5 years ago.
He isn't as hard to play against as he used to be.

 

[Brian McDavid]

I think we are virtually a lock for the playoffs** for the next 9 years. This season we finish 1st in the division and 2nd in the Conference.

Contenders**