Do Stats tell a story in prospect evaulation .

Discussion in 'NHL Draft - Prospects' started by Mess, Nov 27, 2004.

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  1. Mess

    Mess Global Moderator

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    Just for fun .... Whats in the numbers ???.. NO BASHING INTENDED

    The Chicago team in ranked #3 in the Team Rankings ..and taken from the write up directly its top 3 prospect forwards are... .

    "At forward, a trio of Russians in Igor Radulov, Mikhail Yakubov, and Pavel Vorobiev are all NHL ready, and any one of them could have a future on a scoring line. "

    Interesting write-up considering the facts don't really tell the same story..

    PLAYER ................POS....GP ...G ..A ..PTS

    Igor Radulov.......... L..........15...0....0....0
    Mikhail Yakubov .....C..........18...4....6...10
    Pavel Vorobiev ......R...........19...2...5.....7

    Totals..........................52 ..6...11...17

    So Chicago Terrific Trio has played 52 games combined for 17 points..

    PLAYER .............POS....GP ..G ..A ..PTS

    Michael Cammalleri.....C....17...16..14....30

    Totals........................17..16...14...30

    So what is in the numbers ???

    Is prospect rankings based on actual facts, while statistics alone don't tell the whole story agreed.. but do Hype and Draft position also factor in, or size or physical abilities more than actual results ??

    Thought it was quite interesting that LA unranked ranked prospect could statistically out perform Chicago's highly touted trio by himself .. and if you factor in it took them 52 man games to get 17 points while Cammalleri has played in only 17 games & If you projected Cammalleri's current pace to = 52 games ..He would have 92 points..

    Now the Chicago forwards all have a size advantage, but do they really have a skill or talent advantage as all are expected to make the NHL if they do as top line players ??

    .. but when it really comes down to it who is the better player/prospect of all the 4 combined ?? Certainly based on actual stats the answer is clear ..

    Can we draw any conclusions from comparisons like this ??

    None are currently on any TOP LIST but have been in prior years .. but are some considered better prospects then others, all with different skill sets, but do some skill sets have more prospect weighting??.
     
  2. NYR469

    NYR469 Registered User

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    stats can be usually in some cases, but they can also be very misleading. really you can make stats say whatever you want them to say by adjusting the criteria, looking at only a certain number of games, etc
     
  3. David A. Rainer

    David A. Rainer Registered User

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    Your points are valid and you present an interesting discussion. But I thought I would just point out that HF has not had a chance to rerank the Kings prospects since the criteria change (when Cammalleri again became a "prospect"). That is why he's "unranked". Presume that when the reranking is done, he will be somewhere in the 3-5 range.
     
  4. Mess

    Mess Global Moderator

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    Fair enough ... but it really wasn't a direct reflection on that point .. Cammer is a smaller skilled player that often does not get the recognition of the more PROTOTYPICAL NHL ones ... and always have to overcome the stereotyping .. yet when you look at their success offensive point scoring statistics present a whole different picture ..

    If the NHL was running today .. the report makes it sound like the 3 Hawk forwards are ready for NHL duty .. no guarantee that Cammer would be there despite is stats..

    Radulov has ZERO points in the AHL this season ..but what NHL team would recall a young prospect that is performing like that in the AHL ??
     
    Last edited: Nov 27, 2004
  5. thestonedkoala

    thestonedkoala Everyone! PANIC!

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    You can make a case, especially with goaltenders, but sometimes even with goaltenders you can't make a case.

    Numbers just boost a player...
     
  6. Prucha73

    Prucha73 Guest

    I think if the NHL wouldn't put so much emphasis on size of the players and let the short, small, fast and offensively dynamic players play more then it would be a much funner and better quality product.
     
  7. andora

    andora Registered User

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    i just wish we could see those other special stats the nhl used to keep, hits given/taken, takeaways/giveaways etc.. those ones
     
  8. Mess

    Mess Global Moderator

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    That touches on one of the points that my post makes ... The NHL is constantly wanting to open up the game .. increasing scoring and create excitement ..

    If NHL teams played Best Player Available at the NHL level that they stress on Draft day .. They could solve their own problem without all the rules changes because by nature the smaller skilled players play less or a trap & clutch and game ..

    Management is stuck on the NHL is a big players league and Size matters .. yet fans do not care what size the players are just want to see the most exciting game possible ... One of the reasons the CHL is so popular .. Size is not a factor in the roster and as such we see fans flocking out in droves to see the best skilled players ..

    Good Point ...
     
  9. Leaf Army

    Leaf Army Registered User

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    A statistic is a way to measure skill.

    When you say the word "statistic" people automatically think of goals and assists.

    But when people say "Player A shoots 92 miles per hour" is that not a stat? Or if Player B can skate around the rink in 14 seconds, isn't that a stat?

    The point is that everything can be expressed as a stat- even things like shooting and skating ability.
     
  10. Mess

    Mess Global Moderator

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    That is a good point :handclap: & POINT TAKEN ..perhaps the wording is leading to the misconception at times, and one needs to be more specific when trying to make a point ..
     
    Last edited: Nov 27, 2004
  11. andora

    andora Registered User

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    actually i agree leaf army too, those things can all be deducted into stats, no doubt.
     
  12. DownFromNJ

    DownFromNJ Registered User

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    Stats have to be put into perspective in order to be effective.

    If your showing me a guy with awesome "goal scoring potential", but he has 4 goals in 25 games in the OHL, he doesn't have "goal scoring potential".
     
  13. MS

    MS 1%er

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    Stats tell a story in some cases but not others. For Radulov and Vorobiev they definitely tell a story - two pure offensive players with two goals in 34 games between them. Both guys are hurtling toward bust status in a big hurry. In Yakubov's case, not so much ... his stats don't look great but he's a big, strong guy who plays a strong positional game and has a good chance of developing into a quality defensive center. So despite his mediocre production, his future still looks relatively bright.
     
  14. mazmin

    mazmin Go! Jets! Go!

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    IMHO stats like goals and assists can tell you a lot about a player as long as you know the players role with the team. Both Vorobiev and Radulov are expected to score which they aren't. They don't even have great potential as checkers so I guess what I'm trying to say is that sometimes stats tell the truth.
     
  15. Prucha73

    Prucha73 Guest

    maybe they are just bored of AHL, many Europeans are.
     
  16. BuppY

    BuppY xGoodwillx

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    sometimes stats tell a story sometimes it doesn't, depends on what type of a player you are, for the Hawks prospects stats tell a story, they are not performing well, and all of them are offensive players, and none of them is a great checker so they will have hard time playign in the NHL on a 4th line, and they can't score in the AHL, how are they going to score in the NHL?
     
  17. Barnaby

    Barnaby Registered User

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    True... but when you slack off and get reduced numbers thats one thing... when your an offensive player who has ZERO points then it might be time to worry.
     
  18. Mess

    Mess Global Moderator

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    This is my theory .. For offensive prospect successful results and points do not guarantee a NHL career , however unsuccessful results nearly guarantee failure ..
     
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