Player Discussion Dmitry Orlov

[amin723]

OK. It’s time to talk about what we may have here. This guy is looking elite. Is it the Olympics? All of our Russians are playing out of their minds right now. Every time I watch Orlov I find myself saying, “Wow, nice play/smart play/great D, etc.”. He is playing really well right now, right? Am I just missing his off nights?

 

[txpd]

OK. It’s time to talk about what we may have here. This guy is looking elite. Is it the Olympics? All of our Russians are playing out of their minds right now. Every time I watch Orlov I find myself saying, “Wow, nice play/smart play/great D, etc.”. He is playing really well right now, right? Am I just missing his off nights?

Same guy they have had for years. He has been capable of the flashy plays all along but with Trotz he and Niskanen got the shutdown defensive assignment and he played a conservative game. Laviolette's system calls for full offensive buy in from everyone, even the shutdown guys. Orlov is perfect for that system. It helps a lot that Jensen is playing as well as Niskanen at his best which gives Orlov more freedom.

But Orlov has been the same guy for a long time

 

[Marshall]

I've been skeptical of Orlov since the get-go and he's proven me wrong at every turn. I'm a believer.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Really wondering what AAV # (less than JC74) we can afford extend this guy at?

I’ve always felt like he was eventually a trade candidate after this year, but he’s looking too important to let go.

 

[DWGie26]

Really wondering what AAV # (less than JC74) we can afford extend this guy at?

I’ve always felt like he was eventually a trade candidate after this year, but he’s looking too important to let go.

It probably depends on if he wants to stay. He is certainly a candidate for a hometown discount to see his countryman break the record. He is not JC74 in areas that drive contract value (1st pair, points, PP1). Sure he could likely get that role (and money) elsewhere, but i suspect he’d rather sign here. No more than $6M and maybe 3 years. maybe he takes 5.5M for 5 years but that is a long contract.

 

[Midnight Judges]

OK. It’s time to talk about what we may have here. This guy is looking elite. Is it the Olympics? All of our Russians are playing out of their minds right now. Every time I watch Orlov I find myself saying, “Wow, nice play/smart play/great D, etc.”. He is playing really well right now, right? Am I just missing his off nights?

No. He's under-appreciated.

I think it's because he doesn't get the offensive opportunities because John Carlson really is the superior offensive player.

Orlov's deployment has been perfect this season IMO. He can play big 5v5 minutes with some PP time. The team has given him and Jensen freedom to pinch and it is working beautifully.

 

[txpd]

It probably depends on if he wants to stay. He is certainly a candidate for a hometown discount to see his countryman break the record. He is not JC74 in areas that drive contract value (1st pair, points, PP1). Sure he could likely get that role (and money) elsewhere, but i suspect he’d rather sign here. No more than $6M and maybe 3 years. maybe he takes 5.5M for 5 years but that is a long contract.

He is a potential all star on a team that uses a left shot at the top of their pp and could use him other than against the opposing top line. Most good players get a reasonable chance to show what he can do but as long as Ovechkin is the prime shooter on the pp, thats not going to happen here. I would guess that it would be a terrible decision to have to make. The Caps are a tight bunch. Ted treats all his staff very well. The facilities and lifestyle away from the rink are as nice as you get. An opportunity to show what you can really do or no risk happiness.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I don’t see why Orlov takes a team friendly deal when nobody else really has when it was their turn.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

I don’t see why Orlov takes a team friendly deal when nobody else really has when it was their turn.

Nor should he. Instead, GMBM should not overpay free agents and should prioritize filling gaps, especially in the bottom six, from players already in the organization. This is not a knock on GMBM, just a general comment that we should prioritize cap dollars for our highest-impact players.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I’d want at least 5 years if I’m him….but what if he wants $7 per AAV?

How high are we willing to go?

As TX said, he could go be an all situations/ all star-type for someone else (and probably command a big UFA deal even at 31/32).

 

[McVechkin]

I don’t see why Orlov takes a team friendly deal when nobody else really has when it was their turn.

I’d say ovechkin is trying his best to prove his deal is team friendly!

 

[txpd]

Nor should he. Instead, GMBM should not overpay free agents and should prioritize filling gaps, especially in the bottom six, from players already in the organization. This is not a knock on GMBM, just a general comment that we should prioritize cap dollars for our highest-impact players.

I assume this is the regular shot at Hagelin. What other bottom six free agents has MacLellan overpaid?

 

[Hivemind]

I assume this is the regular shot at Hagelin. What other bottom six free agents has MacLellan overpaid?

Panik, for starters. And the term given to Hagelin, Panik, Hathaway, and even now Dowd is something that has blocked younger/cheaper solutions for their positions.

 

[Kuz]

Panik, for starters. And the term given to Hagelin, Panik, Hathaway, and even now Dowd is something that has blocked younger/cheaper solutions for their positions.

Dowd is definetely a very good 4th line center and fits the role way better than McMichael would do. Dowd is also earning 0,75 now and with Hathaway is forming one of the best 4th line in the leagues.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Panik…

 

[txpd]

Panik…

Yea. Panik was a definate goof.

 

[g00n]

Well this thread is already jacked so I'll add that there's a distinct possibility we're not appreciating the veteran influence on some of the younger players. I recall years where the bottom 6 (or more) were stocked with waiver wire dumpster players and call-ups and we were perpetually leaking defense and receiving zero scoring support.

Maybe the young guys don't fare as well without that influence? We can't know unless we just trash the lineup and start over.

Back on topic. Orlov is a badass.

 

[twabby]

Hagelin and Schultz will be off the books by the time Orlov's hypothetical extension would kick in. Both should be easily replaced by cheaper players, probably more than enough to give Orlov the raise he'd command on the open market. Eller is also off the books, and McMichael will still be on his ELC in 2023-24 so that could be another significant savings at least for that year.

The only players whose (non-ELC) contracts run longer than Orlov's are Ovechkin, Kuznetsov, Backstrom, Oshie, Wilson, Mantha, and Dowd. Unless Mantha has a standout 2022-23 season I could see his contract as a candidate to move. Not only to fit Orlov, but others who might be candidates for re-signing (Jensen, TVR, Fehervary, maybe a few others who might command raises) along with potential UFA acquisitions or trade targets.

Barring Orlov asking for the moon, there's really no reason they can't fit him. The cap is also expected to go up an extra $1 million next season, so that's a little more wiggle room.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Stop hemming and hawing….give us a fair AAV and term Orlov and the Caps could be happy with Twabby.

Use those statistical abilities for good not evil today!

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Don’t look now but Orlov and Jansen are a top The league in plus minus. Also Ovechkin is top five in that stat

 

[Hivemind]

Dowd is definetely a very good 4th line center and fits the role way better than McMichael would do. Dowd is also earning 0,75 now and with Hathaway is forming one of the best 4th line in the leagues.

Dowd at $0.75M is a steal, no doubt. The concern is three more years of Dowd at $1.3M following this year. It's still a pretty fair price for a 4th liner, but the term could end up blocking younger players. Not so much CMM, but guys like Protas (if he's destined to return to center after his stint as 1RW concludes), Lapierre, Pilon, and whatever new prospects arrive via the 2022 draft/undrafted free agents. I don't think it's a crippling move by any means, but it does fit into GMBM's penchant for locking up complimentary and depth guys for 3-4 year extensions that end up limiting flexibility.

The 4th line is a plus, for sure. But I also don't prescribe to the view that it must be viewed as a rigid unit of 3 players that can't be interchanged at all. I think we've seen this year already that individuals from the 4th line can be moved around or replaced by younger players and it can still be effective.

 

[twabby]

Stop hemming and hawing….give us a fair AAV and term Orlov and the Caps could be happy with Twabby.

Use those statistical abilities for good not evil today!

I think anything up to $8 million AAV you make it work. If he wants anything above it I try my best to give him more term to bring the AAV down.

I think $6.5M AAV is something everyone could likely be happy with. He likely doesn't have the point totals to command a huge salary, which is to the benefit of Washington.

He's a top 20 defenseman in the league IMO and he's been money in the playoffs. I'm not playing hardball over a few hundred grand.

 

[zappa4ever]

Orlov has been steadily improving for years in the D-zone, and often overlooked is how responsible he is now on breakouts...
5 years ago he would regularly make dangerous breakouts from behind the goal and got burned several times
Now he's been getting more oppty to go on O and he's been getting good results
Always thought he should be 12-15 goals/season with his skill

And one of the few remaining open ice check specialists, nothing like an Orlov hip check on a winger coming in the zone

Golden Rule - Never trade away Top Defensemen

 

[txpd]

Well this thread is already jacked so I'll add that there's a distinct possibility we're not appreciating the veteran influence on some of the younger players. I recall years where the bottom 6 (or more) were stocked with waiver wire dumpster players and call-ups and we were perpetually leaking defense and receiving zero scoring support.

Maybe the young guys don't fare as well without that influence? We can't know unless we just trash the lineup and start over.

Back on topic. Orlov is a badass.

We should move this forward stuff off to where it belongs. Veterans, influence, leadership. Intangibles. No value. right?

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Orlov's game has really matured. Breakouts are controlled or played safely at least. He activates from the point only when he knows that the situation is favourable after a cycle down low.

If you go back and watch the 2016 playoffs, you will see how frequently he would get burned by fast forechecking teams like the 2016 Pens. I'd call him a solid #2 now. He will never reach Carlson's level all around but he will anchor any 2nd D pairing we have for at least 3-4 years I think.