Did Babcock have it right to begin with?

[Dekes For Days]

“One particular surface result”……… that particular result is everything the team exists for.

I mean, that's not even true, but even if that's your perspective, that does not make that the only thing that matters when evaluating your team and making decisions for it moving forward. That one particular surface result (taken with zero context) does not provide very accurate representations of team quality, especially when the sample you're looking at features massive pieces missing from your usual roster. If you disagree, then you're saying that we lost to the 2nd best team in the league.

For 11 million Marner better dam well score a goal or two when we really need it.

Marner is not paid 10.9m to score goals at will whenever you demand it. He is justifiably paid 10.9m as an amazing player, and one of the best young playmakers seen in the cap era. I understand that you want to see more goals in certain situations, but judging Marner exclusively by his goals (and then ignoring his career high ES goal-scoring year, no less) is like judging Ovechkin exclusively by his assists. It shows that one is not actually interested in an honest discussion about a player's abilities and what they bring.

Tavares is not a massive piece

Tavares is an elite player and unquestionably a massive piece, especially in a series lost by such tiny margins.

we had him for other series and no success.

That does not make him irrelevant. We had him for two other series that we took to the limit (one against one of the best teams in the league, and the other an unusual 5-game set), where we had vastly different defense and goaltending. It's not the same team.

The Leafs were 5th in the league in scoring until it really mattered.

You claimed that we weren't a good offensive team. That was false. We've consistently been among the best offensive teams in the league, and that did not change this year, despite a down year for the PP. For the record, the only team to score better against Montreal in the playoffs was cup champion Tampa, largely as a result of their depth, which they only had due to a cap loophole giving them a massive advantage over everybody.

They had a good PP at the start of the year until the games got more serious and the other teams figured out that they were a PP 1 trick pony

There is no basis with which to conclude that all of our players were just suddenly and simultaneously "figured out" after 4 and a half years of excellent PP play. It's just a bad stretch. It happens, and we will likely continue to be a top PP team next year.

 

[Pookie]

@Dekes For Days - we haven’t been able to win when it matters.

There is nothing to defend.

And no amount of arguing will change that until we actually win.

Whatever they do this year... it comes down to playoff performance. And until then... they have achieved absolutely nothing but failure.

 

[Superstar]

@Dekes For Days - we haven’t been able to win when it matters.

There is nothing to defend.

And no amount of arguing will change that until we actually win.

Whatever they do this year... it comes down to playoff performance. And until then... they have achieved absolutely nothing but failure.

But the Leafs might win the President's Trophy though...

 

[Pookie]

But the Leafs might win the President's Trophy though...

yep. And who cares?

wait for the playoffs

 

[Dekes For Days]

@Dekes For Days - we haven’t been able to win when it matters.

We all know the surface outcomes of past series, and it's been repeated ad nauseum. That doesn't change anything that I said.

 

[Antropovsky]

Babs had it more right then Keefe... but he was disliked. Coaches need players who want to play for them. So both had it wrong.

Dubas had it wrong hiring Keefe.

 

[Pookie]

We all know the surface outcomes of past series, and it's been repeated ad nauseum. That doesn't change anything that I said.

what it means is that nothing you said has been correlated with Leafs success.

Couple of easy examples:

1. our truth is that having an offensively stacked regular season team is correlated with losing in the playoffs.

2. Having Tavares not only hasn’t made ANY difference in our playoff fortunes but his leaving has been impactful on the Islanders in a POSITIVE way. Evidence seems to suggest that having Tavares, as currently aged, is not correlated with success.

 

[rumman]

@Dekes For Days - we haven’t been able to win when it matters.

There is nothing to defend.

And no amount of arguing will change that until we actually win.

Whatever they do this year... it comes down to playoff performance. And until then... they have achieved absolutely nothing but failure.

They have the Northern Division banner, that pleases plenty here.

 

[Dekes For Days]

what it means is that nothing you said has been correlated with Leafs success.

You're not talking about anything I said. You came in, tagged me, and then ignored everything I actually said. Seemingly to look at nothing except a couple series losses for one team, and then arbitrarily draw broad, illogical, and obviously false conclusions from it.

 

[Pookie]

You're not talking about anything I said. You came in, tagged me, and then ignored everything I actually said. Seemingly to look at nothing except a couple series losses for one team, and then arbitrarily draw broad, illogical, and obviously false conclusions from it.

you talked about Tavares and good offence.

did you not?

and we can agree that neither of those things have resulted in playoff success.

right?

 

[Dekes For Days]

you talked about Tavares and good offence.

I talked about Tavares being an important piece of this team, and I talked about the fact that we have a good offensive team - both things that are true. That has nothing to do with you trying to squeeze broad, illogical conclusions from a couple of series losses. Tavares didn't even play against Montreal, and Tampa just won their 2nd back-to-back cup with one of the best offenses in the league. There is no basis with which to conclude that those things are the cause of us losing.

 

[cannucky]

Me too, a lot of that going around.

I was on a pretty good run but I posted in a couple of other teams threads and somebody cried lol.

 

[cannucky]

They have the Northern Division banner, that pleases plenty here.

LOL watched Moneyball again last night and to quote Billy Bean "If you lose the last game you play then nobody gives a S@#! what you did all year "

 

[PromisedLand]

They have the Northern Division banner, that pleases plenty here.

I really hope they dont raise that banner. It is a freakin' JOKE.

 

[Pookie]

I talked about Tavares being an important piece of this team, and I talked about the fact that we have a good offensive team - both things that are true.

It’s true we have Tavares. It’s true we have an offensive team.

It has not been true that either is important and correlated to winning playoff games.

There is no basis with which to conclude that those things are the cause of us losing

As for being the only cause, I didn’t say anything of the sort. I highlighted 2 easy examples.

Another is that Dubas’ implementation of an analytics focus on decision making has been WAY off the mark.

Either they don’t matter or he’s not very good at it.

bottom line = they haven’t helped us win anything.

Not. A. Single. Thing.

 

[Dekes For Days]

It’s true we have Tavares. It’s true we have an offensive team. It has not been true that either is important and correlated to winning playoff games.

Having elite players and having a good offense are absolutely correlated with winning playoff games, and analytics are a useful tool used by all teams in the NHL.

 

[Havoc]

It’s true we have Tavares. It’s true we have an offensive team.

It has not been true that either is important and correlated to winning playoff games.



As for being the only cause, I didn’t say anything of the sort. I highlighted 2 easy examples.

Another is that Dubas’ implementation of an analytics focus on decision making has been WAY off the mark.

Either they don’t matter or he’s not very good at it.

bottom line = they haven’t helped us win anything.

Not. A. Single. Thing.

Since Matthews entered the league, the teams with the most playoff wins are as follows:

Tampa
Vegas
Boston
Washington
Islanders

Tampa has the most regular season goals.
Vegas has the 5th highest goals per game since they entered the league
Boston has the 6th most goals
Washington has the 4th most goals
Islanders have the 12th fewest goals


Islanders are the one anomaly in the top 5 but all the other 4 teams actually made it to the Cup finals. Islanders are the one team out of the 5 who got stuck at round 3. (Bolding this incase you see Islanders , ignore everything else and use it as proof offensive teams don't correlate with playoff wins).


I'm just lending a helping hand here with some data. The conclusions you want to draw are up to you.

Me personally, I want Leafs to keep their offensive identity. They clearly need to just add to it with other elements, not subtract it.

 

[Pookie]

Since Matthews entered the league, the teams with the most playoff wins are as follows:

Tampa
Vegas
Boston
Washington
Islanders

Tampa has the most regular season goals.
Vegas has the 5th highest goals per game since they entered the league
Boston has the 6th most goals
Washington has the 4th most goals
Islanders have the 12th fewest goals


Islanders are the one anomaly in the top 5 but all the other 4 teams actually made it to the Cup finals. Islanders are the one team out of the 5 who got stuck at round 3. (Bolding this incase you see Islanders , ignore everything else and use it as proof offensive teams don't correlate with playoff wins).


I'm just lending a helping hand here with some data. The conclusions you want to draw are up to you.

Me personally, I want Leafs to keep their offensive identity. They clearly need to just add to it with other elements, not subtract it.

you’ll note that I said “for the Leafs, this has not been correlated with winning.”

Meaning for us, if those variables matter... we have something that “cancels them out”

just a helping hand back at you... having the 6th most of something means 5 others had more and failed. Hardly convincing

 

[Pookie]

Having elite players and having a good offense are absolutely correlated with winning playoff games, and analytics are a useful tool used by all teams in the NHL.

Not for us.

 

[Dreakmur]

Having elite players and having a good offense are absolutely correlated with winning playoff games, and analytics are a useful tool used by all teams in the NHL.

The most important part of analytics is understanding and interpreting the numbers. None of the metrics used accurately depict a hockey game, but if you combine them with real hockey knowledge, they can be beneficial.

You have to allow the data to inform your opinion rather than just using it to confirm the one you already had.

 

[DarkKnight]

They have the Northern Division banner, that pleases plenty here.

There won’t be a dry eye in the house when they raise the Expected Goals banner this fall.

 

[Pookie]

The most important part of analytics is understanding and interpreting the numbers. None of the metrics used accurately depict a hockey game, but if you combine them with real hockey knowledge, they can be beneficial.

You have to allow the data to inform your opinion rather than just using it to confirm the one you already had.

I agree. They can be beneficial.

While Dubas believes in their value, there is absolutely no evidence that he is any good at harnessing them to inform decision making.

same could be said about the video analysts and strategists he has employed. 3 straight losses to Montreal. We didn’t learn a thing from game to game.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Not for us.

Those things are still correlated with winning playoff games. They are just, obviously, not the only things that impact playoff outcomes.

You have to allow the data to inform your opinion

That's exactly what I do.

 

[daveleaf]

Leafs haven't been any better since the change. Say whatever you want but it is not. Now Babs rubbed Mathews and Marriner the wrong way but others flourished under him. Babcock was not the issue here, team makeup was. If anything has become even more solidified since Dubas has taken over is the sense of entitlement with these players. Marriner should have been pulled from the 1st line after no production after a couple of games. Keefe did not a thing to adjust to what was happening in the series. I honestly don't know what others see in him. He is over his head, on this stage and with this team. For all the number crunchers-it means squat. Ask Barry Trotz how much number crunching he does. Old Lou and old school Barry took an inferior team to the semi finals and gave the cup champ a major headache. What has boy wonder done? I hear about all his prowness in gauging young talent with numbers-how has that done? Of course young hats will come on now say look at the contract he gave Marleau. Hey, if he wasn't here, Mitch and Austin would not have developed as they have.

The way I look, if Lou was kept on as GM and Hunter as assistant. Leafs would have been in the cup final and this team would have been giving the Lightning a major headache. Shanahan made the wrong choice and he continues to do so. This team today is farther away from the cup appearance as we have ever been.

 

[Hclass47]

Babs had it right. He just didn’t have the horses or respect

keefes system needs skilled players. What both he and Dubas are learning is that skill alone will not win.

Dubas has now realized the balance required to win.

Really a hybrid of the 2 is the answer