With defensemen, I don't look at point production nearly as much as I do with forwards. I don't care how many points Nikita Okhotyuk scores, I just care that when he's on the ice he makes it very, very difficult for the opposition to score. Conversely, a defenseman like Reilly Walsh needs to produce points because that's what his game is based upon -- driving the offense from the blueline, while you hope he just plays respectable defense. In his case, someone looking at the numbers should feel encouraged -- in his final two Harvard seasons, Walsh potted 58 points in 63 games, excellent numbers for an NCAA blueliner. Still, I ranked Walsh behind McCarthy, because McCarthy is quite advanced defensively and thus has a higher "talent floor". I think the odds are terrific that McCarthy develops into a quality, third-pairing guy who is very difficult to play against.
I suspect where I am more optimistic than you is that I strongly believe NHL teams need a mix of high-end talent and depth in order to succeed. Tampa Bay obviously is loaded with high-end talent with players like Kucherov, Point, Stamkos, Hedman and Vasilevski. But they had all these talented guys for the past two seasons and had disappointing playoff exits. What put them over the top in 2020? Well, to me (and to most of the hockey minds I've discussed this with), it was clearly the addition of excellent depth players -- Coleman and Goodrow and Pat Maroon and Bogosian combined with the continued development of tough players-who-are-far-better-than-their-numbers-indicate like Cirelli, Cernak and Gourde.
I'm very optimistic about the Devils young talent because I think they have a nice balance of high-end guys and depth players. Jack Hughes has incredible scoring potential, while Nico Hischier is on the verge of joining the conversation as one of the best two-way centers in the league. Blackwood looked great in goal last year, and Ty Smith tore up the WHL and has to be considered a top prospect by anyone worth their salt. Jesper Bratt might turn out to be the best 6th round pick of the entire decade. Alexander Holtz was widely touted as the best goal-scoring prospect in the 2020 draft and Dawson Mercer has an even superior all-around game. Nolan Foote has a shot which is almost as good as Holtz's and also gives you a physical, power game at LW. That's a lot of high end talent.
But we also have a large group of promising, physical defensemen and checking line caliber forwards coming up to add the balance and physicality and compete level on a bottom six and the defense core. To me, this is something to be excited about when you look at the last few Stanley Cup winners, not just Tampa but also St. Louis and Washington. They all had high-end talent complimented by physical, high-compete depth players who could log big minutes and make a difference in ways that don't always show up on the stat sheet. I think the Devils have done a nice job following this model.
