Prospect Info: Devils Prospect Rankings By Position

[Lou is God]

In fact when you look at our bottom three picks in 2009, they combined for ZERO games played in the AHL, all players from NA, not Euro players. Sometimes Euro players picked late never came over even so they were good enough to at least get a taste of AHL hockey. These three were just terrible hockey prospects and should have never even been considered on draft day.

Even so we're talking 5th to 7th rounders, you would hope they would still play to a higher level than ECHL.

 

[Triumph]

I’m not disagreeing with you other than there’s too much focus on the Devils doing terrible in drafts with no zero depth when they had no early picks. They did badly when it was a lot harder to do well but that’s understandable. What do I think is Conte’s most disastrous draft and my least favorite?

Why? Because that draft was also fantastic, 55.2% made the NHL. Many teams loaded up and we got crap, that’s why they were good and we were bad.

Anaheim got Palmieri (26) and Vatanen (106). Minny got Nick Leddy (16), Kuemper (161) and Haula (182). Nashville picked Ryan Ellis at 11, then added Craig Smith (98) and Mattias Ekholm (102). NYI got Tavares obviously, and Calvin de Haan (12), Anders Nilsson (62), Casey Cizikas (92) and Anders Lee (152). Colorado Duchene (3), O’Reilly (33) and Berrie (64).

More teams just got NHL players. Washington got Mojo (24), Dr Orlov (55) and Cody Eakin (85). Hell, Buffalo drafted Zack Kassian (13), Brayden McNabb (66) and Marcus Foligno (104) with their first three picks. I looove Sens drafting around this time, Silfverberg (39), Lehner (46) and Hoffman (130) is pretty sweet haul. Even Atlanta found Ben Chaiarot (120) to join Evander Kane at 3rd overall. Nothing quite beats getting out-drafted in the late rounds by the Thrashers. I could go on.

We traded the 23 and 84 pick to get a talented injury report on skates who scored 60 points in 276GP, a hard shot from the point we used to swindle a 3rd round pick from Col and two defensive prospects that were discussed on this board for what felt like 14 years. That’s perhaps understandable in a bad draft but if you can’t even get one roster player even out of this draft we probably deserved our fate.

Several other teams forgot to get on the bags of gold line even if this was a very generous draft. Montreal got zilch, but 2007 went pretty well for them. If teams made it up in other drafts in a big way it’s not an issue, but we obviously didn’t. Vancouver, our sister draft screw-up at the time, also screwed up again. They got high octane bust Jordon Schroeder at 22 and some absolute garbage too in some weird mirror image of sadness. I’m rambling...

My point is at least in 2011 they got Larsson, even if it took a lottery win, but they got him and later Coleman bloomed. 2008 is another legendary draft, less depth at 50.7%, but the talent level is unreal. There’s more than just Carlson taken after Tedenby, but we did get Henrique at 82. They got jack shit in 2009 and compounding that with only getting a one good player a couple great drafts and bombing bad drafts all adds up to not enough talent. (I know, news flash!) Not even getting one functional NHLer out of 2009 is just the nadir to me.

I was going to say earlier that while it is not fair to him personally, Derek Rodwell is probably my least favorite Devils draft pick of all time (other than Anthony Brodeur). They at least gambled with Gelinas and he almost paid off - if he were just a little smarter he could've been a special player. But Urbom never should've been as highly thought of as he was and Helgeson is a plug and Rodwell developed exactly how you would expect a guy on a loaded AJHL team to develop. So yeah. 2009 bad.

 

[Guttersniped]

Back to full circle...based on what? Cause you say so?

10 years ago many here believed we had not just a good pool, but a very good pool...People were gaga over Bergfors, Josefson and Tedenby....Absolutely over the moon. And our defensive prospects looked even better...We were also a 48 win 103 point team in 2010 and had won 51 games the previous year... You now have the benefit of hindsight...But I can remember it like yesterday saying Bergfors wasn't very good and catching the hate here 10+ years ago while he was in Lowell...I can also remeber the same for Tedenby very early on.

Are you assuming that everyone believes all or most of our prospects are making it full time in the NHL? I assumed these are discussions about potential and hope in a fun sort of way. I describe my take as hopeful ambivalence about prospects, which is different and bouncier than my much darker take on almost everything else.

This is an escape. I’m going into this season thinking Mikey really might figure out how to pot a few goals and lock down that 4th line spot because if he doesn’t nothing really bad happens because this is entertainment in dark times.

@StevenToddIves is very optimistic, because it’s that or “guess the bust losers!”. I’d rather have him describe the player, their style, strengths/weaknesses, and possible future NHL roles than bag on players so he say “I knew Gignac sucked and Anderson was better from day one!”. He’s writer, not an oracle or being a dick to amateur teens to prove he can guess their final employment fates better than other amateur scouts. (Unless I’m wrong here Steve, I don’t want to be presumptuous.) edit: I know you rate them too.

Sure they all have one floor, not professional hockey, but that’s understood. It’s an elite job with few openings and they draft 211 guys a year now (plus undrafted FAs). “Most of these guys in the AHL won’t become full time NHL players!” No shit Sherlock.

I am bummed about the defensemen in 2019 class who aren’t playing. Some of defense boils down to pattern recognition, they really do need to get as many games in as they can, this shortened season could adversely affect their development the most, Brady too probably.

I get why everyone is very hyped up about defensive defensemen, but does everyone remember 2015-16? After Zidlicky’s ancient remains crumbled into a pile of dust on the ice the Devils wondered if a team could just have almost no offense from the blueline. Like what if only one defenseman scored over 20 points and by “over 20 points” I mean 21 points. It crippled the offense btw, even after the addition of Palmieri. Just saying you need both. Team Edwards.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Which of these guys (that you ranked) do you think could be trade targets for other teams? There are rumors about Vince Dunn being available and obviously Tampa will need to do something with 3 RFAs and only $5 million in cap space. You mentioned that you think Dubas liked Anderson, are there guys outside the highest profile prospects (Holtz/Smith/Mercer/Foote) that you think other teams might covet and be part of a package to land a defenseman?

I'd have to think that -- as the Devils are rebuilding -- the Devils top 5 prospects of Holtz/Mercer/Smith/Foote/Bahl are probably not available in a trade for a good player who is not an impact player, like a Dunn or a Cernak. Though I do think that one of them could be a centerpiece in a deal for a young player the Devils could envision as a core piece, like Sergachev.

It's my conviction that Tampa will be extremely reluctant to deal Sergachev, and I think the likely guy to leave the Lightning will be either Cernak or Cirelli.

Cirelli is a player I would really like to get on the Devils. It's possible that NJ could interest Tampa by offering a decent replacement at a lower salary in Pavel Zacha, then adding an intriguing prospect like Misyul or Merkley.

Both Tampa and St. Louis have clear prospect depth needs on the blueline. With Tampa, their weakest position in terms of prospect depth is LD, where the Devils are extremely deep. St. Louis likes physical Fs and high-motor kids, so they would likely have interest in prospects like Talvitie, Merkley and Moynihan. Tampa probably wants more high-upside kids since they will not be drafting high in the foreseeable future, so Boqvist or Thompson could be of great interest to them.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Are you assuming that everyone believes all or most of our prospects are making it full time in the NHL? I assumed these are discussions about potential and hope in a fun sort of way. I describe my take as hopeful ambivalence about prospects, which is different and bouncier than my much darker take on almost everything else.

This is an escape. I’m going into this season thinking Mikey really might figure out how to pot a few goals and lock down that 4th line spot because if he doesn’t nothing really bad happens because this is entertainment in dark times.

@StevenToddIves is very optimistic, because it’s that or “guess the bust losers!”. I’d rather have him describe the player, their style, strengths/weaknesses, and possible future NHL roles than bag on players so he say “I knew Gignac sucked and Anderson was better from day one!”. He’s writer, not an oracle or being a dick to amateur teens to prove he can guess their final employment fates better than other amateur scouts. (Unless I’m wrong here Steve, I don’t want to be presumptuous.) edit: I know you rate them too.

Sure they all have one floor, not professional hockey, but that’s understood. It’s an elite job with few openings and they draft 211 guys a year now (plus undrafted FAs). “Most of these guys in the AHL won’t become full time NHL players!” No shit Sherlock.

I am bummed about the defensemen in 2019 class who aren’t playing. Some of defense boils down to pattern recognition, they really do need to get as many games in as they can, this shortened season could adversely affect their development the most, Brady too probably.

I get why everyone is very hyped up about defensive defensemen, but does everyone remember 2015-16? After Zidlicky’s ancient remains crumbled into a pile of dust on the ice the Devils wondered if a team could just have almost no offense from the blueline. Like what if only one defenseman scored over 20 points and by “over 20 points” I mean 21 points. It crippled the offense btw, even after the addition of Palmieri. Just saying you need both. Team Edwards.

I must say you're 100% correct about everything you said about me... except I am kind of a dick.

 

[GameSeven]

I don't understand this chart.

The intention of the chart is to rank, within reach draft class/year, the total career Point Shares earned by all players drafted by each team. Point Shares are just another created stat, but I like that it attempts to quantify goalie contribution as well as offensive and defensive skater contributions.

The lower green numbers represent teams that placed higher in a given draft year, while the lower red numbers accumulated the lowest combined value in a given year.

One thing I think it illustrates is that NJ endured an extended period of time where it routinely placed among the bottom of the league in terms of point shares accrued across its entire draft class.

Some draft classes are stronger or weaker than others, but the Devils were routinely among the lowest cumulative value earned by all teams in most of the seasons from 01-14.

I have identified one mistake with one of the Vancouver drafts where they were ranked incorrectly. I think I had some cut and paste mistake. I'll eventually revise and correct in a couple of years to see if any trends change.

 

[StevenToddIves]

By the way, I'm watching Luke Hughes and co. with the US-NTDP right now. It's a free game vs. Muskegon on hockeytv.com.

Fun facts:
-- The US-NTDP second-line center is named Jack Hughes, but there's no relation or comparison. I think it's just meant to confuse us.

-- Yes, Ryan St. Louis is Martin's son.

-- Jeremy Wilmer is just 5'6, but I'm going to be talking about him a lot. Holy f**k, is that kid skilled.

-- Luke Hughes is going to be a top 5 pick. The US-NTDP has another very skilled offensive D who could be a first rounder in Sean Behrens, and Aiden Hreschuk is also a D with first-round aspirations. But Hughes is clearly the guy on that blueline.

-- Best US-NTDP forward playing tonight is Sasha Pastujov -- high-end vision and great talent. I would say he's a good bet to be a first-round pick, as well.

 

[JimEIV]

Let's get this straight, because I found a post from you from Spring 2016 where you were refuting the 'worst prospect pool in the league' narrative. (Here, for fun, is you calling the prospect pool 'fantastic' in 2016). All I did to find this was search Pietila and click around for a minute.

The Devils from that time graduated Zacha, Coleman, Wood, and Blackwood. The ONLY player that makes this not true is Blackwood who might be a starting goalie. If you think teams aren't doing better than graduating those 3 players over that time, you are mistaken and are not following other systems enough - absolutely anyone who hit on a 2015 1st rounder is doing better. But you've shown your colors here - you're just a contrarian. The Devils' prospect base sucked in 2016 and you're calling it good and now in 2020 when it's good you're calling it bad.

I actually never called it bad...I said I don't think it is as good as should be for how bad we've been and how high weve picked...and I have said how does anyone know our pool is better now from then....and it kind of funny you named 4 names that have graduated from 4 years draft years...Severson was also drafted from that time frame of 2011 to 2015 and you also left out Kerfoot who was from the same time frame....so 6 NHL regulars from 5 draft years is base line for Shero's 2016 through 2019 with 2 #1OA....A goalie, 2 top 4 defensemen, 2 bottom 6 forwards and Kerfoot and Coleman how every you want to classify them....you think 2016 through 2019 is going to produced a greater quantity of NHL regulars? Quality perhaps, but with 2 #1OA you better have the quality....I don't think this pool (excluding this draft) is clearly better than what we had in 2016...not at all. But that has been the claim for a couple of years now. And eventually we'll be able to to measure that empirically.

 

[Triumph]

I actually never called it bad...I said I don't think it is as good as should be for how bad we've been and how high weve picked...and I have said how does anyone know our pool is better now from then....and it kind of funny you named 4 names that have graduated from 4 years draft years...Severson was also drafted from that time frame of 2011 to 2015

If you want to put Severson in, who had played 2 full seasons in the NHL at the time you made that post, you are going to look far, far worse. You should probably leave Severson out. This implies that you ever even consider other NHL teams when you make these posts.

and you also left out Kerfoot who was from the same time frame

Kerfoot is a fine player. Borderline 2nd/3rd line player. I did forget about him though, in part because he never played here and was never part of the organization. But yes, he's a decent player.

....so 6 NHL regulars from 4 draft years is base line for Shero's 2016 through 2019 with 2 #1OA....A goalie, 2 top 4 defensemen, 2 bottom 6 forwards and Kerfoot how every you want to classify him....you think 2016 through 2019 is going to produced a greater quantity of NHL regulars? Quality perhaps, but with 2 #1OA you better have the quality....I don't think this pool (excluding this draft) is clearly better than what we had in 2016...not at all. But that has been the claim for a couple of years now. And eventually we'll be able to to measure that empirically.

It'll look insane to make this claim and you will shift the goalposts - you've already shifted the goalposts by including the years 2011 to 2015 in your set and 2016-2019 in the other set. Coleman took 2 years from spring 2016 to be anything of consequence in the NHL, Miles Wood is a cipher, Pavel Zacha is almost a cipher, and Kerfoot's better than them. So yes, I think Bratt, Hischier, everything else from 2017, Smith, Hughes, everything else from 2019 will be better than two 2nd/3rd liners, a 4th liner, a 3rd liner, and a potential starting goalie. If we exclude Bratt, Hischier, and Hughes, it will be awfully close, I grant, but I'd still bet on that cohort being better.

 

[JimEIV]

If you want to put Severson in, who had played 2 full seasons in the NHL at the time you made that post, you are going to look far, far worse. You should probably leave Severson out. This implies that you ever even consider other NHL teams when you make these posts.



Kerfoot is a fine player. Borderline 2nd/3rd line player. I did forget about him though, in part because he never played here and was never part of the organization. But yes, he's a decent player


It'll look insane to make this claim and you will shift the goalposts - you've already shifted the goalposts by including the years 2011 to 2015 in your set and 2016-2019 in the other set. Coleman took 2 years from spring 2016 to be anything of consequence in the NHL, Miles Wood is a cipher, Pavel Zacha is almost a cipher, and Kerfoot's better than them. So yes, I think Bratt, Hischier, everything else from 2017, Smith, Hughes, everything else from 2019 will be better than two 2nd/3rd liners, a 4th liner, a 3rd liner, and a potential starting goalie.

I did nothing of the sort...you did...you named Coleman, Wood, Zacha and Blackwood in your initial post...that's 2011 through 2015 drafts....you set the parameters not me.

 

[Triumph]

I did nothing of the sort...you did...you named Coleman, Wood, Zacha and Blackwood in your initial post...that's 2011 through 2015 drafts....you set the parameters not me.

You might notice that you included 5 drafts in one of these and 4 in the other. That's why it's a goalpost shift.

 

[JimEIV]

You might notice that you included 5 drafts in one of these and 4 in the other. That's why it's a goalpost shift.

That was just a mistake I called it 4 yeas too when it was actually 5...just an oversight...so yeah counting 5 years vs 4 is probably not fair...but those 4 have two #1OA in them and we tanked horribly bad to get those picks.

 

[JimEIV]

If you want to put Severson in, who had played 2 full seasons in the NHL at the time you made that post, you are going to look far, far worse. You should probably leave Severson out. This implies that you ever even consider other NHL teams when you make these posts.



Kerfoot is a fine player. Borderline 2nd/3rd line player. I did forget about him though, in part because he never played here and was never part of the organization. But yes, he's a decent player.



It'll look insane to make this claim and you will shift the goalposts - you've already shifted the goalposts by including the years 2011 to 2015 in your set and 2016-2019 in the other set. Coleman took 2 years from spring 2016 to be anything of consequence in the NHL, Miles Wood is a cipher, Pavel Zacha is almost a cipher, and Kerfoot's better than them. So yes, I think Bratt, Hischier, everything else from 2017, Smith, Hughes, everything else from 2019 will be better than two 2nd/3rd liners, a 4th liner, a 3rd liner, and a potential starting goalie. If we exclude Bratt, Hischier, and Hughes, it will be awfully close, I grant, but I'd still bet on that cohort being better.

it will be awfully close, I grant, but I'd still bet on that cohort being better.

And with this one sentence you just blew out of the water the entire notion that Lou left us with nothing that you and others have been pitching for the last 5 years. I'll take it and call it a win.

 

[Triumph]

it will be awfully close, I grant, but I'd still bet on that cohort being better.

And with this one sentence you just blew out of the water the entire notion that Lou left us with nothing that you and others have been pitching for the last 5 years. I'll take it and call it a win.

No, man. You don't understand that other teams also find players in the draft and some of these players can play on a first line. That some defensemen can play on a first pairing. This is in fact how teams in the NHL win, by having excellent players who are better than the majority of players in the league. Finding 1 above-average player in 5 years is not going to lead to winning, as we have seen.

 

[StevenToddIves]

If anyone wants to talk about the 2020 draft or even the 2021 draft, I'd do pretty much anything to stop bickering about the 2012 draft.

Seriously, folks. People log onto these pages to discuss the recent and upcoming drafts and the prospects. I think people stop following our threads when it's just a lot of bickering. So, pretty please with sugar on top, can we keep it a bit more positive and a bit more in the present and future than the past?

 

[JimEIV]

No, man. You don't understand that other teams also find players in the draft and some of these players can play on a first line. That some defensemen can play on a first pairing. This is in fact how teams in the NHL win, by having excellent players who are better than the majority of players in the league. Finding 1 above-average player in 5 years is not going to lead to winning, as we have seen.

Like Severson and Larsson?

 

[Triumph]

If anyone wants to talk about the 2020 draft or even the 2021 draft, I'd do pretty much anything to stop bickering about the 2012 draft.

Seriously, folks. People log onto these pages to discuss the recent and upcoming drafts and the prospects. I think people stop following out threads when it's just a lot of bickering. So, pretty please with sugar on top, can we keep it a bit more positive and a bit more in the present and future than the past?

Yeah, I agree, I'll stop. Sometimes you just gotta fight against the bullshit spewed here, though. Meant no disrespect, appreciate all your work on the board even if we don't always agree.

Things looking good with Holtz and Mukhamadullin since being drafted. Hopefully those leagues get in a full season, will be exciting to follow along.

 

[Devils731]

If anyone wants to talk about the 2020 draft or even the 2021 draft, I'd do pretty much anything to stop bickering about the 2012 draft.

Seriously, folks. People log onto these pages to discuss the recent and upcoming drafts and the prospects. I think people stop following out threads when it's just a lot of bickering. So, pretty please with sugar on top, can we keep it a bit more positive and a bit more in the present and future than the past?

It wouldn’t be so bad if it wasn’t the same discussion for the 10th or so time, with the same bad faith arguments and “innocent” questions.

Ethan Edwards wears my number so I hope he sees the NHL someday while continuing to wear it. What should we hope to see from him in the USHL this season to see some promise? Once he’s in the NCAA in 2 seasons it will be easier for me to judge what I think of him but I don’t really know how to judge AJHL and USHL defenseman.

 

[JimEIV]

If anyone wants to talk about the 2020 draft or even the 2021 draft, I'd do pretty much anything to stop bickering about the 2012 draft.

Seriously, folks. People log onto these pages to discuss the recent and upcoming drafts and the prospects. I think people stop following out threads when it's just a lot of bickering. So, pretty please with sugar on top, can we keep it a bit more positive and a bit more in the present and future than the past?

I hear what you are saying...but I just had to watch a 28 win season with a generational worst #1OA performance and other #1OA who has been putting up about .65 ppg since his rookie year without any upward trajectory at all....it's hard for me to be positive about the next wave of promises.

Now if you want to tell me how Holtz or Mercer is going to make this shitshow better I will listen.

 

[Guttersniped]

it will be awfully close, I grant, but I'd still bet on that cohort being better.

And with this one sentence you just blew out of the water the entire notion that Lou left us with nothing that you and others have been pitching for the last 5 years. I'll take it and call it a win.

Will you? Promise? We’re all happy for you.

 

[JimEIV]

Will you? Promise? We’re all happy for you.

Probably not...I'm easily provoked.

 

[Guttersniped]

I hear what you are saying...but I just had to watch a 28 win season with a generational worst #1OA performance and other #1OA who has been putting up about .65 ppg since his rookie year without any upward trajectory at all....it's hard for me to be positive about the next wave of promises.

Now if you want to tell me how Holtz or Mercer is going to make this shitshow better I will listen.

Are you complaining about the uncertainty of the future? They’re prospects not robots. That’s the beauty of drafts, the great unknown.

“Promises” is such a weird word to use hear, it suggests betrayal which... is an odd take to me. This about rooting for a team for enjoyment and you don’t HAVE to watch anything.

If you think everyone on the team sucks, then go ahead and think everyone on the team sucks. Hate all of the players and prospects, I don’t see what the issue is.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Yeah, I agree, I'll stop. Sometimes you just gotta fight against the bullshit spewed here, though. Meant no disrespect, appreciate all your work on the board even if we don't always agree.

Things looking good with Holtz and Mukhamadullin since being drafted. Hopefully those leagues get in a full season, will be exciting to follow along.

I think you're great, and I really love the passion and knowledge which people consistently display on our Devils boards. I really enjoy talking hockey with all the extremely intelligent folks I've been lucky to get to know a bit here. And I don't mind a bit when people make fun of me for getting something wrong or disagree with me on something I think is right -- because as long as it's all done respectfully, it's part of the fun. That being said, I think it's more fun for everyone when these threads are more about an interchange of ideas and knowledge than a battle, so to speak.

 

[StevenToddIves]

It wouldn’t be so bad if it wasn’t the same discussion for the 10th or so time, with the same bad faith arguments and “innocent” questions.

Ethan Edwards wears my number so I hope he sees the NHL someday while continuing to wear it. What should we hope to see from him in the USHL this season to see some promise? Once he’s in the NCAA in 2 seasons it will be easier for me to judge what I think of him but I don’t really know how to judge AJHL and USHL defenseman.

If you include the US-NTDP, I would rank the USHL as the second best developmental league in the world outside of the CHL. I find the defensive play, physicality and skill all far ahead of the Swedish, Finnish and Russian juniors. I would argue that last year's Chicago Steel team could have seriously competed in the QMJHL or OHL.

The AJHL is a different story. Though it has caught up with the BCHL in recent years, the consistency of talent and coaching/development are just not up there with the CHL or USHL. The stats really should be taken with a grain of salt. I'm a big of fan of Carter Savoie as anyone, but the 52 goals he scored in 53 games with Sherwood Park last year would probably be cut in about half were he playing for the USHL or WHL.

As far as Ethan Edwards go, he scored a respectable 33 points in 50 games for Spruce Grove of the AJHL last year. It's going to be far more difficult for him the USHL, which is defensively more sound and more physical. Edwards lacks a standout quality and he's neither big nor a speedster, so it's going to be a big test for him in Sioux City. I'm hoping that with the year of development, he can continue to progress defensively and still put up similar scoring averages to last year.

 

[TBF1972]

now i’m not sure which decade you’re referring to. my decade produced 5 noteworthy players. 5 players! in 10 years! and you’re complaining about mcleod, that’s the hilarious part to me.



martin, parise, zajac, and henrique is “much better” than hughes, nico, bratt, smith, holtz, mercer, foote, bahl, etc?

and of course, the kicker in all of this is that if lou/conte had drafted better, shero’s clubs would have had that winning thing you’re so fond of.

Reading all this counters to an unknown source ( ) I can just recommend to use the ignore function.