Devils 2017-18 team discussion (player news and notes) VII - Playoff push; read warning in OP first

[Spoiled Bratt]

It gets better than that.

In two must win late season games, when BOTH Mueller & Severson WERE in the lineup, with 6 minutes left in one game and with over 2 minutes left in the other game, Severson got benched and Mueller took his spot playing with Moore.

I've proposed the question of "why did that happen" several times to the Severson lovers here, and my question has never been answered, just simply ignored.

Let me try one more time:

Why was Severson benched for Mueller in the waning minutes of two late-season must win 1 goal games, with the playoffs on the line?

Answer... he's a defensive liability and his offensive game isn't good enough to cover his regular brain cramps.

 

[Jets012]

You should at least define advanced stats properly if you're going to post them. CF% is not "corsi for", it's "corsi for percentage" which is (corsi for / (corsi for + corsi against)). Not everyone knows every advanced stat, so it's important to make sure they are labelled correctly and used in the proper context.

Question though, obviously Severson has a 1-3% difference when playing with Moore compared with not playing with more, which is actually minuscule and almost meaningless, but what is it that changes? Is it that Severson gives up more chances against when with Moore, or that he's on the ice for fewer chances for?

The "%" symbol didn't clarify that it was "for percentage" for you lol. Fine I'll make sure I'll do that in the future if someone is actually going to get confused by it.

First off, a 3% difference actually is meaningful. NJ's team CF% was 48.59% which was good for bottom 11. Now they combated that by having a very solid HDCF% which helps alleviate their lack luster CF%. But if their CF% was 51.59% they'd be amongst the top 8 or so in the league moving up 12 or so positions. The 1% isn't a huge deal in the grand scheme, but 3% is.

And Severson boosts Moore's Corsi For percentage drastically.

 

[BahlDeep]

The "%" symbol didn't clarify that it was "for percentage" for you lol. Fine I'll make sure I'll do that in the future if someone is actually going to get confused by it.

First off, a 3% difference actually is meaningful. NJ's team CF% was 48.59% which was good for bottom 11. Now they combated that by having a very solid HDCF% which helps alleviate their lack luster CF%. But if their CF% was 51.59% they'd be amongst the top 8 or so in the league moving up 12 or so positions. The 1% isn't a huge deal in the grand scheme, but 3% is.

And Severson boosts Moore's Corsi For percentage drastically.

And yet Severson bumps Moore GA.

 

[BahlDeep]

It sucks that Corsi isn't considered in the final score, or Severson might actually be a top 2 defenseman.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Their both horrible... the thing is that Moore doesn't act like a 4th forward most of the time and can actually tie up his man in front of the net.

He's not always in the proper position but at least he's next to his man where as Damon just looks lost and confused.

Let's be honest here, Hynes gave Severson all the rope he needed and ended up hanging himself. He was eventually replaced by Mueller, who's making our second pairing much better.

Damon Severson is horrible. Also, let’s trade Damon Severson for a first pairing left handed defenseman. Makes sense!

Genuinely hilarious that people think Mueller, a guy with zero goals and 4 assists, playing a handful of decent games makes him more valuable than Severson. Laughable nonsense.

 

[MartyOwns]

 

[BahlDeep]

I wonder what Severson could fetch us if he was on the block.

 

[BenedictGomez]

There was an analysis posted earlier in the season here that showed that the standings more closely related to high danger corsi than it did to straight corsi, and the thought was that teams have given up on caring about facing outside shots and are mostly focused on preventing and generating high danger shots. The eye test for how the Devils play definitely supports that, the team is content with letting the opponent take shots from the outside all game.

And if that should be proven to be the case, and I dont know if it is, but if it is, Corsi is near irrelevant.

What I DO know, however, is that straight up +/-, for all it warts and weaknesses, is more important than Corsi. This should be intuitively obvious, as he sport is decided by "goals scored", not by "soft wristers from the blue line into the goalies bread basket".

So I'm not much bothered by the fact Severson's Corsi is 1% better than Moore's (as if that's THAT big of a deal), but I do care that for whatever reason you want to ascribe to it, the puck has ended up in the back of the Devils net this year more often with Severson on the ice than with Moore on the ice.

 

[Spoiled Bratt]

The "%" symbol didn't clarify that it was "for percentage" for you lol. Fine I'll make sure I'll do that in the future if someone is actually going to get confused by it.

First off, a 3% difference actually is meaningful. NJ's team CF% was 48.59% which was good for bottom 11. Now they combated that by having a very solid HDCF% which helps alleviate their lack luster CF%. But if their CF% was 51.59% they'd be amongst the top 8 or so in the league moving up 12 or so positions. The 1% isn't a huge deal in the grand scheme, but 3% is.

And Severson boosts Moore's Corsi For percentage drastically.

The Phoenix Coyotes are runner by a analytic wizard... that's all I need to know about advanced stats.

This isn't moneyball, it's a team game and those stats are ok to look at but they don't paint the entire picture.

Some do take them like it's coming straight out of gods mouth.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

I wonder what Severson could fetch us if he was on the block.

Nothing, because the top minds of HF told me he stinks and is worse than Mirco Mueller and John Moore.

 

[BenedictGomez]

It sucks that Corsi isn't considered in the final score, or Severson might actually be a top 2 defenseman.

Even though Severson's CF% is 2.5% worse than Ben Lovejoy?

 

[Devils731]

Damon Severson is horrible. Also, let’s trade Damon Severson for a first pairing left handed defenseman. Makes sense!

Genuinely hilarious that people think Mueller, a guy with zero goals and 4 assists, playing a handful of decent games makes him more valuable than Severson. Laughable nonsense.

Also, Severson was scratched a few games so the coach knows he’s horrible. AND look how good Mueller is(please ignore his long time being scratched by the smart coach).

On a serious note, I think Mueller and Severson should both be playing.

 

[Jets012]

The Phoenix Coyotes are runner by a analytic wizard... that's all I need to know about advanced stats.

This isn't moneyball, it's a team game and those stats are ok to look at but they don't paint the entire picture.

Some do take them like it's coming straight out of gods mouth.

And Chicago invests more than just about any team in analytics the last 10 years, how did that work out for them? Every team in the league has an analytics department. Sorry if that upsets you

 

[Spoiled Bratt]

Damon Severson is horrible. Also, let’s trade Damon Severson for a first pairing left handed defenseman. Makes sense!

Genuinely hilarious that people think Mueller, a guy with zero goals and 4 assists, playing a handful of decent games makes him more valuable than Severson. Laughable nonsense.

In his own zone, he's one if not the worst defender we have and if you don't understand the word "package", it's probably why you're having a hard time understanding my post.

Severson, Quenneville and a 1st (preferably our 2019 since we don't have a 2nd or 3rd this year) is what I'm trying to get at because Severson alone wouldn't get us much.

 

[BenedictGomez]

The Phoenix Coyotes are runner by a analytic wizard... that's all I need to know about advanced stats.

The Carolina Hurricanes have the #1 CF% in the entire NHL, that's all I need to know about advanced stats.

Team Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Maybe the Hurricanes GM can consult with an MIT professor of mathematics next week on the golf course to figure out what went wrong.

 

[BahlDeep]

And Chicago invests more than just about any team in analytics the last 10 years, how did that work out for them? Every team in the league has an analytics department. Sorry if that upsets you

They are, but if you want to look like the Coyotes, you make your decisions based on advanced stats.

 

[Jets012]

They are, but if you want to look like the Coyotes, you make your decisions based on advanced stats.

Oh okay.

 

[Spoiled Bratt]

Nothing, because the top minds of HF told me he stinks and is worse than Mirco Mueller and John Moore.

He wouldn't fetch us nothing... he'd fetch us a mid pairing dman with issues.

So we'd be getting Damon Severson!

 

[BenedictGomez]

Why was Severson benched for Mueller in the waning minutes of two late-season must win 1 goal games, with the playoffs on the line?

Seems the Severson apologists are going to ignore this question yet again rather than attempt to answer it.

 

[BahlDeep]

Seems the Severson defenders are going to ignore this question yet again rather than attempt to answer it.

Simple: Hynes is clueless

 

[Better Call Sal]

I'm pumped the way our schedule for the playoffs fell, I'll be able to make it to the first home game.

Woo hoo!

 

[Devils731]

Seems the Severson apologists are going to ignore this question yet again rather than attempt to answer it.

Everyone rages that Greene and Lovejoy are out there at the end but the coaches choice in this instance is proof of who is worthwhile? Come on.

The coach puts out the most defensive guys he can at that moment. It doesn’t mean anyone not out there is worthless.

The question was more ridiculous than really needing an answer but since you asked twice, now you have it.

 

[JimEIV]

Wait a second, are we just making believe that Mueller wasn't trash last night?

 

[BenedictGomez]

The coach puts out the most defensive guys he can at that moment. It doesn’t mean anyone not out there is worthless.

The question was more ridiculous than really needing an answer but since you asked twice, now you have it.

Ummmmmm........ So wouldn't that mean that Mueller is adjudicated by the Devils coaching staff to be a better defender than Severson?

Given your response, not only was the question not "ridiculous", it fully served in proving my point.

So thank you.

 

[Spoiled Bratt]

Simple: Hynes is clueless

I actually love Hynes cause he's not afraid to ruffle some feathers when things aren't going his way and he's right more often then not.

Hes been pressing all the right buttons for us and the fact that the MVP to be can't say enough good things about the guy is another reason why the haters should sit down and shut their yaps.