Defensemen dominate Anaheim Ducks Preseason Top 20

[Ducks Nation*]

Fowler has no balls, that's his only problem, his shot could be a little harder too but he can skate and do everything else well. I see more of a fire in Theodore watching wjc and Seattle games as well as being vocal something I think Fowler could be a little more of. I hope we can have all 4 of them if possible but that's doubtful.

 

[Sojourn]

Fowler has no balls, that's his only problem, his shot could be a little harder too but he can skate and do everything else well. I see more of a fire in Theodore watching wjc and Seattle games.

I think you're missing the point. All that fire hasn't made Theodore a better player than the ball-less Fowler at any stage in their development. But suddenly it will in the NHL?

I'm very high on Theodore. I think he could be a damn good defenseman for us. But you're saying he'll be better than a defenseman who was arguably our best in the playoffs. That's not even factoring in future improvement for Fowler, who is only 23. Man, I'd be thrilled if Theodore could be better than that, but I don't see anything in him right now that suggests that. His development has been a step behind Fowler at every point. Realistically, what is there to suggest he surpasses him? Sure, there's the potential in that. There is always that potential with good prospects. It's just that very few meet it, and top pairing ability is pretty close to what I'd call Shea's ceiling, while Fowler has already shown that ability, albeit not consistently.

Which goes back to my original, and primary, point... If Theodore is our #2, we probably need a better blue line. In fact, if Theodore is our #2, it probably means we moved Fowler and didn't get a superior defenseman. We had better hope Lindholm is fantastic, because we'll need him to play a lot.

 

[Ducks Nation*]

Defensemen development is all over the place.

 

[Sojourn]

Defensemen development is all over the place.

That's not really an argument, so much as it is a blanket statement.

It's also not really true. While there are defensemen who bloom late, the average(in number, not ability) defenseman takes a predictable path. If it were that volatile, you'd see defensemen treated more like goaltenders in drafts. Their development isn't nearly that uncertain. It's just a bit harder to predict than forwards. Personally, I think some of that is physical development, but some of it is the structure, system play, and, especially, intelligence needed at the NHL level. Kind of just my feeling though.

But you're essentially saying you think Theodore will be better than Fowler and Vatanen because you like him more. That's cool. I was just curious what your rationalization was. I dig Theodore. He's going to be a good one. I just don't see anything in his development that says he'll be at quite that level.

 

[Sean Garrity]

Fowler has no balls, that's his only problem, his shot could be a little harder too but he can skate and do everything else well. I see more of a fire in Theodore watching wjc and Seattle games as well as being vocal something I think Fowler could be a little more of. I hope we can have all 4 of them if possible but that's doubtful.

Fowler has been a step ahead of Theodore at every developmental checkmark/milestone...I like Theodore, and definitely agree that Fowler needs to be more assertive, but I don't understand your line of thinking.

 

[AngelDuck]

Fowler has no balls, that's his only problem, his shot could be a little harder too but he can skate and do everything else well. I see more of a fire in Theodore watching wjc and Seattle games as well as being vocal something I think Fowler could be a little more of. I hope we can have all 4 of them if possible but that's doubtful.

Did you watch the playoffs last year? Especially the series against the Blackhawks where Fowler was the Ducks best defenseman by a mile and a half?

I know you saw it...I'm just confused what the problem with Fowler is. He was generally top notch once boat anchor Lovejoy was moved on from

I think you should at least give him a full season with Despres before you start claiming Theodore (who has played 15 games at the AHL level) will be better than him

 

[DucksAreCool]

I think the most likely development of our defensemen best to worst will most likely be Lindholm, Fowler, Theodore, Vatanen, Montour, Manson. Don't know enough about Larsson.

I think Lindholm/ Fowler could be top pairing defensemen, Theodore/ Vatanen could be second pairing defensemen, Montour could be second or third and Manson third pairing. I don't mean as these pairings specifially or even all with us, I just mean them as individuals at the NHL level.

 

[Nurmagomedov]

You do realize that, at the same age, Theodore was worse than Fowler, right? Fowler has been the better player at every step in their development. Which is why I go back to Theodore's developmental curve needing to steepen, for that to happen.

I'm hardly one to give prospects credit for development they've yet to have but i think what you're saying here is not quite as clear cut.

Yes, comparing draft years Fowler comes out ahead. But if you look at their age, Fowler was an old 2010 draftee, born a few weeks after the draft cutoff, whereas Theo was a young 2013 draftee, born a few weeks before the cutoff. If you want to compare their level at the same age, more accurate would be to compare Fowler's draft year to Theo's draft+1 year. I'm not sure if Fowler comes out ahead in that comparison.

 

[91Fedorov]

I think the most likely development of our defensemen best to worst will most likely be Lindholm, Fowler, Theodore, Vatanen, Montour, Manson. Don't know enough about Larsson.

I think Lindholm/ Fowler could be top pairing defensemen, Theodore/ Vatanen could be second pairing defensemen, Montour could be second or third and Manson third pairing. I don't mean as these pairings specifially or even all with us, I just mean them as individuals at the NHL level.

Remember that Despres is still young and developing. I think he will easily be better than Manson, and probably others on that list.

 

[DucksAreCool]

Remember that Despres is still young and developing. I think he will easily be better than Manson, and probably others on that list.

I totally spaced out Despres haha.

Yeah, I would definitely say better than Manson, I would say he could be a second pairing defenseman, in the Theodore/ Vatanen range.

 

[Ducks Nation*]

That's not really an argument, so much as it is a blanket statement.

It's also not really true. While there are defensemen who bloom late, the average(in number, not ability) defenseman takes a predictable path. If it were that volatile, you'd see defensemen treated more like goaltenders in drafts. Their development isn't nearly that uncertain. It's just a bit harder to predict than forwards. Personally, I think some of that is physical development, but some of it is the structure, system play, and, especially, intelligence needed at the NHL level. Kind of just my feeling though.

But you're essentially saying you think Theodore will be better than Fowler and Vatanen because you like him more. That's cool. I was just curious what your rationalization was. I dig Theodore. He's going to be a good one. I just don't see anything in his development that says he'll be at quite that level.

I don't like anyone more, I watch all the Ducks game and most of the Seattle games and all the WJC games and I think Theodore will be the better player. It's not about liking anyone better, I can careless. I watch the game and from what I see I think Theodore will be better than Vatanen/Fowler, the same way I thought Lindholm would be better than Fowler. Have your own opinion about it because you are not going to change mine when I have seen both of them play a ton.

 

[Ducks Nation*]

Did you watch the playoffs last year? Especially the series against the Blackhawks where Fowler was the Ducks best defenseman by a mile and a half?

I know you saw it...I'm just confused what the problem with Fowler is. He was generally top notch once boat anchor Lovejoy was moved on from

I think you should at least give him a full season with Despres before you start claiming Theodore (who has played 15 games at the AHL level) will be better than him

Yes I did, he's a great defensemen, we have seen these flashes before (last post season) hopefully he can keep it up.

 

[HanSolo]

That's not really an argument, so much as it is a blanket statement.

It's also not really true. While there are defensemen who bloom late, the average(in number, not ability) defenseman takes a predictable path. If it were that volatile, you'd see defensemen treated more like goaltenders in drafts. Their development isn't nearly that uncertain. It's just a bit harder to predict than forwards. Personally, I think some of that is physical development, but some of it is the structure, system play, and, especially, intelligence needed at the NHL level. Kind of just my feeling though.

But you're essentially saying you think Theodore will be better than Fowler and Vatanen because you like him more. That's cool. I was just curious what your rationalization was. I dig Theodore. He's going to be a good one. I just don't see anything in his development that says he'll be at quite that level.

It also hurts his argument more than it helps. Following that logic, Theodore could conceivably develop worse than Fowler who I still maintain, is a fine #2 defenseman when he's playing well.

 

[KaseMeOutside]

Fowler has been a step ahead of Theodore at every developmental checkmark/milestone...I like Theodore, and definitely agree that Fowler needs to be more assertive, but I don't understand your line of thinking.

not everyone develops at the same rate, also take into account Theo spent much of his time in jr's coming up with an awful team, while Fowler was in a good situation in Windsor. Theo seems to trust his talent a lot more imo, his potential is very high but we won't know how good is truly is til he plays in the pro's

the concern about Fowler's toughness is a fair critique, i think that's part of the reason he is so inconsistent but i would also like to believe the playoffs were a turning point for him in his career

 

[Kalv]

not everyone develops at the same rate, also take into account Theo spent much of his time in jr's coming up with an awful team, while Fowler was in a good situation in Windsor. Theo seems to trust his talent a lot more imo, his potential is very high but we won't know how good is truly is til he plays in the pro's

the concern about Fowler's toughness is a fair critique, i think that's part of the reason he is so inconsistent but i would also like to believe the playoffs were a turning point for him in his career

His first playoffs - that one series vs Nashville was his ''coming out party'' too. He was our best defenseman there, was being agressive and made plays happen. Then he returned back to ''usal Fowler'' next season, including playoffs and series against Detroit, Dallas, LA. Last year again we saw some very good games from him in the playoffs.
For me, i am fine him playing his style in the regular season, he is still a very effective defenseman. Just Cam, please make sure we see that ''Nashville series and some of last years playoffs'' Fowler when the offseason comes. That one is a damn good player.

 

[Ducks Nation*]

It also hurts his argument more than it helps. Following that logic, Theodore could conceivably develop worse than Fowler who I still maintain, is a fine #2 defenseman when he's playing well.

There is no argument, development is subjective to the player and everyone is different, fact. And I'm not arguing about everything else I said it's my opinion. There are a lot of players that put up crazy numbers and you can tell they are getting them from skills that may not translate as well (Emerson Etem) from what I have seen of Theodore I think his skills will all translate and I like his fire a lot more than Fowler, of course it's possible Fowler will be the better player, he is already a borderline top pairing defensemen at a young age, he just needs to play with a little more confidence and fire for more than a 7 game series like he seems to every year. Every playoffs it's his "breakout" season than he reverts to playing timid. Hopefully this time he keeps it up because we could really use him to play like he did vs Chi especially now since Big Beauch is gone.

 

[anezthes]

I love Theodore, but if he's our #2 we probably need to upgrade our blue line. ... Alternatively, if Theodore's development just takes a steep turn for the better.

Was gonna say that depends on how he progresses, but you already covered that.

Keep in mind that, developmentally speaking, he's been a solid level below a guy like Fowler at every step.

Could you elaborate? (Seriously asking, not trying to pick a fight.)

As it stands, Lindholm and Fowler as our 1/2 is perceived as not good enough compared to some of the better teams in the league.

If Fowler becomes a bit more consistent, preferably playing at the level he did this postseason, and Lindholm continues to develop "as expected"... I think we could possibly approach top 5.

From what I've seen, Theodore could be the better offensive player, but it's unlikely he has the two-way capability that Cam has.

IIRC, Fowler's defensive play improved immensely in 2013-2014. But like Theodore, wasn't Fowler's defensive game also questionable when he was drafted?

He also shares some of the same weaknesses, in that he doesn't really engage much physically, and he'll rely a lot on positional play, but he isn't as good on his skates, he isn't as mobile, and I'd say they have comparable hockey IQ.

That's not really a knock on Theo though IMO, who, as far as I've seen and read he is a very strong skater in his own right. Cam's just *that* good.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

IIRC, Fowler's defensive play improved immensely in 2013-2014. But like Theodore, wasn't Fowler's defensive game also questionable when he was drafted?

Yes it was, but that point cuts both ways. Not every defenseman gets really good at defending. Fowler took a great leap forward in defensive effectiveness this past season, after a smaller step the season before. In 13-14 he was just okay. Last year though he was truly a high end defensive presence. Theo has a long, looooooong way to go before reaching that level.

Cam needs a nutsack and he needs a better sense of when taking risks is okay, and he'll be an elite defenseman. It remains to be seen how much of his defensive reliability comes at the expense of his offense, as opposed to being defensively reliable in addition. He's an easy #2 right now, more reliable even than Lindholm who gets all the love. We saw that overall elite level from Cam in the playoffs last year (not in 2010- he was still a defensive mess back then).

 

[Ducks Nation*]

Yes it was, but that point cuts both ways. Not every defenseman gets really good at defending. Fowler took a great leap forward in defensive effectiveness this past season, after a smaller step the season before. In 13-14 he was just okay. Last year though he was truly a high end defensive presence. Theo has a long, looooooong way to go before reaching that level.

Cam needs a nutsack and he needs a better sense of when taking risks is okay, and he'll be an elite defenseman. It remains to be seen how much of his defensive reliability comes at the expense of his offense, as opposed to being defensively reliable in addition. He's an easy #2 right now, more reliable even than Lindholm who gets all the love. We saw that overall elite level from Cam in the playoffs last year (not in 2010- he was still a defensive mess back then).

I agree with this so much

 

[anezthes]

Yes it was, but that point cuts both ways. Not every defenseman gets really good at defending.

Yeah, absolutely. Nothing's given.

 

[Sojourn]

I'm hardly one to give prospects credit for development they've yet to have but i think what you're saying here is not quite as clear cut.

Yes, comparing draft years Fowler comes out ahead. But if you look at their age, Fowler was an old 2010 draftee, born a few weeks after the draft cutoff, whereas Theo was a young 2013 draftee, born a few weeks before the cutoff. If you want to compare their level at the same age, more accurate would be to compare Fowler's draft year to Theo's draft+1 year. I'm not sure if Fowler comes out ahead in that comparison.

Because that isn't how you look a player's development. Sure, age factors in, but you're giving Theodore the benefit of 3 years of WHL experience vs. what would have been 2 years(normally) of OHL experience for Fowler. In Fowler's case, it was actually only one year, and he was a 1st year OHL rookie the year he was drafted, but that isn't Theodore's fault.

The age cut off factors into more than their draft. It's one of the things that determines where they fall into developmental leagues.

 

[Getzmonster]

I think Cam has only now reached the point in his career (eclipsing the 300 GP mark in his 5th season) where we should be expecting what we saw in the playoffs to carry over and become his new norm. This coming season should tell us fairly definitively what we have with Fowler. I'm hesitant to be overly skeptical and sell him short given how so many other top d-men didn't put it together consistently until around that same ~300 game mark (4th, 5th, or 6th seasons depending). Guys like Doughty, Keith, and Hedman immediately come to mind. Heck, even Scotty didn't get a Norris or AS vote until his 6th season. There are plenty of examples, I think this is closer to the norm than the exception. And bear in mind that most of these guys were 1-2 years older than Cam was breaking into the league.

I think the most important thing for this blueline going forward is not just the guys that have the punch to their game that Cam seems to lack (like Vatanen now, maybe Theodore and/or Montour in the near future), but to have a truly stabilizing force on the back end. Even if he isn't the prototypical shutdown guy, I believe Cam is very close to being that stabilizing presence for us. And given how this team has unraveled in the past few playoffs, that to me is probably our biggest need to get over the hump. It's why I cringe when people are quick to offer up Cam as trade fodder or cap relief. Lindholm is certainly capable as well, maybe even becoming more of the true shutdown guy we lack eventually, but I feel he is still a couple seasons from that, and we'll have to see how Hampus responds to the loss of Beauchemin.

 

[TheJoeMan]

Fowler and Theodore are very similar players. They are about the same size and build, they each played in a similar junior league, and they play a very similar style of hockey. Because of that I think it's appropriate to judge each player's development track apples-to-apples. At this stage of Theo's development Cam was already a two-year veteran of the NHL. Granted he was able to step in the lineup partly based on the weakened state of our blueline whereas Theo was drafted after he has won our division. But the moment Cam was drafted everyone expected him to make the jump. No one had any such dilusions about Theo. His progression has been great but at the same age, to me, what I've seen out of each player suggests Fowler is definitely the better player.

I'm weary about Theo's ultimate effectiveness until I see him at this level. He looked good but not great each of the last two camps. I'm excited about his potential but suggesting he's going to be better than Fowler can only really be based on hype because comparing them doesn't draw that conclusion.

 

[Sojourn]

Could you elaborate? (Seriously asking, not trying to pick a fight.)

It basically amounts to Fowler being a better player at the same point in their development. That obviously isn't any sort of guarantee, but when we're talking about a prospect who hasn't played a single NHL game, it's pretty noteworthy.

Let's face it, we're talking about similar type of D here. Both Theodore and Fowler would be viewed as skill defensemen. Neither of them are, or were, particularly physical. They rely on their skills and smarts, so it's actually pretty easy to compare them along their development. Obviously, there are differences. For example, Fowler was on a better team in Windsor, while Theodore was on a pretty crappy team. But at the same time, Fowler was a rookie in the OHL the year of his draft(having come from the US Development Program) the year he was drafted, while Theodore was in his 2nd year. Of course, the following year, Fowler was a rookie in the NHL, while Theodore was a 3rd year player in the WHL. Fowler played in the WJC's his draft year, while Theodore played in the WJC's the year following. They actually even had similar responsibilities for their WJC team, though I'd argue that Theodore benefited more from playing with Nurse, while Fowler was playing with Jake Gardiner.

It does get a little more muddled, but Fowler was definitely a step ahead of Theodore at every point.

If Fowler becomes a bit more consistent, preferably playing at the level he did this postseason, and Lindholm continues to develop "as expected"... I think we could possibly approach top 5.

I agree. It's a big if, and it requires Fowler to be a more assertive player on a more consistent basis, while also requiring Lindholm to continue to develop into the stud that many think he can/will be.

IIRC, Fowler's defensive play improved immensely in 2013-2014. But like Theodore, wasn't Fowler's defensive game also questionable when he was drafted?

It was, and there are a lot of similarities between the two in that regards. Though, I'm not sure I'd say questionable is the right label. For either of them. More that their games were still a little raw, and (I think) they would need to make a bit more of a commitment in the defensive side of the game. That's pretty normal for D of their type.

That's not really a knock on Theo though IMO, who, as far as I've seen and read he is a very strong skater in his own right. Cam's just *that* good.

I agree, 100%. But that's kind of the point, isn't it?

I'm not trying to dismiss Theodore at all, and I'm really excited about him as a player. But when you're comparing him directly with Fowler, he falls a bit short. It's entirely possible that Theodore just continues to blossom as a player, and he surpasses Fowler, but realistically that's unlikely to happen because he's already behind where Fowler was at the same point. He also doesn't have the advantage in the skill department. I'm just looking at this in terms of what is probable. Of course there are always exceptions, and maybe Theodore is one, but realistically he ends up being worse than Fowler while still being a good defenseman(if he transitions well to the NHL, and I think he will).

 

[Nurmagomedov]

Because that isn't how you look a player's development. Sure, age factors in, but you're giving Theodore the benefit of 3 years of WHL experience vs. what would have been 2 years(normally) of OHL experience for Fowler. In Fowler's case, it was actually only one year, and he was a 1st year OHL rookie the year he was drafted, but that isn't Theodore's fault.

3 years WHL vs. 1 year OHL and 2 years U.S National Team Development Program.

During Theo's time there, Seattle had precisely zero other dmen that warranted a draft pick. During Cam's time at the USNTDP they had 7 dmen other than Cam drafted in the first 2 rounds. It's difficult to argue that experience in the WHL is more benefitial than experience in the USNTDP.

You on the other hand, by hinging their development curves to a couple months difference that happened to be around the cutoff, are at every season by season comparison giving Cam the benefit of almost a years worth of physical and mental maturity as well as an extra year of USNTDP experience. As teenagers no less.