Defenseman Scoring Race

[Barrie22]

Can i say vlasic to finish 3rd behind karlsson and burns? Its just as crazy as saying doughty.

 

[GellMann]

Ristolainen was in the teens last year, and is playing pretty poorly while still potting 5 assists in 3 games. I think he has a shot to crack the top 10.

 

[Sureves]

1. Karlsson
2. Burns
3. Letang

Those are the obvious top 3 without injuries, after that it's too tight to accurately predict anything.

 

[jacks*]

Can i say vlasic to finish 3rd behind karlsson and burns? Its just as crazy as saying doughty.

Really.

Last season .
Doughty-51 pts
Vlasic-39 pts

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Really.

Last season .
Doughty-51 pts
Vlasic-39 pts

Didn't you hear? PP points don't count. Doughty is Dan Girardi.

 

[Regal]

1. Karlsson
2. Burns
3. Letang

Those are the obvious top 3 without injuries, after that it's too tight to accurately predict anything.

Pretty much.

After them, any of Josi, Klingberg, OEL, Subban, Byfuglien, Giordano, Shattenkirk, Weber, Hedman, Gostisbehere, Hedman, Barrie, Yandle, Keith, Doughty, Suter, Carlson, Faulk, Pietrangelo, etc, etc could sneak into the top 10.

Best guess:

Josi, Subban, Klingberg, Giordano, Shattenkirk, Carlson, and OEL round it out.

 

[Regal]

Karlsson was 1st in the league in even strength PPG/60 last season with 1.52

Burns was 2nd in the league with 1.39

Doughty was 79th in the league with 0.65 (the same 5 on 5 PPG/60 as Radko Gudas and Dennis Seidenberg)

Doughty isn't in the same league as those two guys offensively.

He isn't in the same tier for sure, or even in the top 10, but P/60 for defensemen is a terrible stat.

 

[AngelDuck]

Burns and Karlsson are completely head and shoulders above the rest of the defenseman offensively. Letang is probably next after that, then OEL, Josi, Subban, etc

 

[CrypTic]

Really.

Last season .
Doughty-51 pts
Vlasic-39 pts

Vlasic missed 15 games last season. Pro-rated, he had 47 points, the same as Yandle. Vlasic also got better as the season went on. He's a slightly worse guess than Doughty (who played 82 games last season) but it's not that far off.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Burns and Karlsson are completely head and shoulders above the rest of the defenseman offensively. Letang is probably next after that, then OEL, Josi, Subban, etc

I think Letang is right up there with those two, it's just a question of if he can play 82 games.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

I'd give it 70% Karlsson, 20% Burns, 5% Letang, 5% anyone else.

This is pretty much how I feel.

My sentiments as well.

 

[Makar Goes Fast]

tyson barrie will be top 10

 

[Community]

I'm gonna be the first one to make a bold prediction that Rielly ends up somewhere in the top 10 (I can understand if you call it a homer pick, but I think this is his offensive break-out year with a team that shouldn't struggle too much on the offensive side of the game)

1-3 Karlsson, Burns, Letang
4-6 Klingberg, OEL, Subban
7-11 Josi, Rielly, Shattenkirk, Keith, Carlson (Doughty, Suter, Faulk, and Hedman challenge)


*Gio and Weber drop out of the top 10 in pts from last year (Weber due to switching to the Habs which I think will affect his offensive points, Gio just due to age I guess -> no real reason TBH, just expect it).

I'm expecting at least a couple of the listed 15 players to miss 10+ games which could cause them to drop out of the top 10. There's lots of guys that can sneak into the #7-10 area IMO, I didn't even list guys like Ghost, Yandle, Barrie, Seabrook, Buff, and Risto who have a legit chance at ending up top 15.

 

[Tomas W]

I'm gonna be the first one to make a bold prediction that Rielly ends up somewhere in the top 10 (I can understand if you call it a homer pick, but I think this is his offensive break-out year with a team that shouldn't struggle too much on the offensive side of the game)

1-3 Karlsson, Burns, Letang
4-6 Klingberg, OEL, Subban
7-11 Josi, Rielly, Shattenkirk, Keith, Carlson (Doughty, Suter, Faulk, and Hedman challenge)


*Gio and Weber drop out of the top 10 in pts from last year (Weber due to switching to the Habs which I think will affect his offensive points, Gio just due to age I guess -> no real reason TBH, just expect it).

I'm expecting at least a couple of the listed 15 players to miss 10+ games which could cause them to drop out of the top 10. There's lots of guys that can sneak into the #7-10 area IMO, I didn't even list guys like Ghost, Yandle, Barrie, Seabrook, Buff, and Risto who have a legit chance at ending up top 15.

I think Green could be a dark horse for the top 4 to 10 at least. He on to a good start!

Karlsson, Burns and Letang in that order are going to make the top three barring injuries.

 

[ramdm5]

I'd give Burns better odds actually. He produced a lot of goals last season and I see no reason as to why that shouldn't continue.

 

[CashMash]

Karlsson
Burns
Letang
Subban

 

[Non Player Canadiens]

Petry's off to a hot start

 

[Hale The Villain]

Didn't you hear? PP points don't count. Doughty is Dan Girardi.

PP points are way easier to get than even strength points.

Elite offensive players produce at even strength and on the powerplay. Doughty only does one of those things.

He isn't in the same tier for sure, or even in the top 10, but P/60 for defensemen is a terrible stat.

Ignoring adjustments for ice-time, Doughty was 41st in even strength production last season.

Hardly Norris-worthy production playing 5 on 5.

 

[Regal]

Vlasic missed 15 games last season. Pro-rated, he had 47 points, the same as Yandle. Vlasic also got better as the season went on. He's a slightly worse guess than Doughty (who played 82 games last season) but it's not that far off.

Except pace doesn't mean much when it's way above what he's ever done before. His career high before that was 36 points. Doughty is a bad choice as well, but at least he at least made the top 10 last season and has finished top 3 in the past (09-10).

 

[KJoe88]

Obviously the big expected guys, but Green may actually have a better season in terms of points. He won't finish top three or anything, but I'd say he's on a good start to maybe place in the top 8 to 10. Would be huge for the Wings.

 

[DL44]

Karlsson, obviously.

Another Swede isn't getting enough mentions tho..... Klingberg.

 

[Sysreq]

Except pace doesn't mean much when it's way above what he's ever done before. His career high before that was 36 points. Doughty is a bad choice as well, but at least he at least made the top 10 last season and has finished top 3 in the past (09-10).

New coach and new system are responsible, not a crazy PDO or shot percentage. Vlasic is the rover on that pairing - crazy as that sounds. PDB's system encourages the D to slide low and take shots. TMac's didn't. No reason to expect him to "regress" statistically unless they pair him with a more offensive partner.

 

[Nordic*]

Most other top-projected point-getters among defencemen have a much better supporting cast than Karlsson.

Imagine if Letang and Karlsson swapped teams.

 

[Regal]

New coach and new system are responsible, not a crazy PDO or shot percentage. Vlasic is the rover on that pairing - crazy as that sounds. PDB's system encourages the D to slide low and take shots. TMac's didn't. No reason to expect him to "regress" statistically unless they pair him with a more offensive partner.

His on-ice shooting % last year was 10.22, compared to 7.56 the year before and 7.43 from 07-08 to 14-15. It is a "crazy PDO" situation.

 

[Sysreq]

His on-ice shooting % last year was 10.22, compared to 7.56 the year before and 7.43 from 07-08 to 14-15. It is a "crazy PDO" situation.

I am seeing 7.32% 5v5 and ~9.5% on the PP.

Edit: Ohh you mean 10.22% of shots go in while he is on the ice. Not he shoots at 10.22%. Honestly, a PDO of 101.4 isn't an outlier. Slightly lucky. But close enough to the mean.