Dan Girardi Part II

[silverfish]

Yes and that 10 seconds is not arbitrary. It is 'supposedly' the average time it takes for the puck to exit either zone after a draw. At least that is what I recall reading. In theory this should favor strong posession players on both sides.

Yeah, but let's look at it in practice for a couple of players (including Girardi to get this thread back on track )

So, a few players who have been brought up in this thread for comparison. Chart is pretty self-explanatory. There are a few things I have a problem with in this chart.

Zuccarello, which I've said before, there's no reason for his zone start adjusted CF% to go up when his OZone starts are at 56.2%. The same can be said for Stralman, who also sees his zone-start adjusted CF% go up despite > 50% Ozone starts.

Seidenberg gets absolutely murdered, as his CF% remains unchanged zone-start adjusted despite 43.7% ozone starts? That's crazy to me.

Weber's goes down despite 45.9% ozone starts?

So in this (small) sample size of 10 players, I personally have an issue with 4 of the outcomes.

 

[Ail]

Yeah, but let's look at it in practice for a couple of players (including Girardi to get this thread back on track )

So, a few players who have been brought up in this thread for comparison. Chart is pretty self-explanatory. There are a few things I have a problem with in this chart.

Zuccarello, which I've said before, there's no reason for his zone start adjusted CF% to go up when his OZone starts are at 56.2%. The same can be said for Stralman, who also sees his zone-start adjusted CF% go up despite > 50% Ozone starts.

Seidenberg gets absolutely murdered, as his CF% remains unchanged zone-start adjusted despite 43.7% ozone starts? That's crazy to me.

Weber's goes down despite 45.9% ozone starts?

So in this (small) sample size of 10 players, I personally have an issue with 4 of the outcomes.

I don't have a problem with any of them. There will be exceptions, some may not be expected, but it's not to the point I question the method.

Boyle, Hayes and Kindl are expected as they have really high OZS%. It should drop at least a little. This is the the kind of extreme OZS% bias you would expect adjusted numbers to highlight. Kindl is a full 18% from the median! On the other hand Girardi with the worst OZS% is only 7% from the median.

Zucc, Stepan, Stralman and Leddy are close to middle of the road on both sides. Zucc and Stralman are known to be very good possession drivers. Unexpected, but not totally surprising to me they actually saw an increase. Stepan didn't move. Nothing unusual there, he's not been very good this year at driving possession or I would be surprised his didn't rise, especially considering how low it is unadjusted. Leddy dropped, with such a high unadjusted CF%, that doesn't stand out as unusual. Only .30% but he's also a good possession driver.

Lastly Weber, Girardi and Seidenberg. Girardi rose albeit not much, expected given the lowest OZS% on the list, but also not a possession driver. Seidenberg didn't move, not a possession driver, not unusual imo. Weber dropped. Unexpected for sure, he is a possession driver historically, but much like Stepan is not showing that this season.

I mean are you just expecting adjusted CF% by zone starts to immediately make people who get a lot of one or the other to see a rise or fall? Out of curiosity why would you expect it to be that black and white? Shouldn't the ability of the player to control possession have an impact on how much the zone start impacts them? Furthermore, the fact that all three players with the highest deviation from the 50/50 zone starts see their CF% impacted the way you would expect is telling.

Again, this is not a perfect method, but I don't see anything that really makes me say, "This can't be correct."

 

[DutchShamrock]

I actually brought up the face off question because we are just so bad at that aspect.

My thinking was we lose a d zone draw and we get hemmed in. Or we lose an o zone draw and lose offensive opportunities.

But, its pretty much the same circumstances for every ranger and if stats are adjusted for it there shouldn't be too much bias for our poor face off team.

Maybe if Girardi gets a ton if starts with Stepan it will impact his possession numbers (as well as McDonagh). Maybe more so since we thrive on the cycle.

I guess my bad for derailing the thread since I gave up on the thought as all of the rangers have the same disadvantage. Fwiw, just something to consider when comparing guys across lines and teams...

 

[silverfish]

I don't have a problem with any of them. There will be exceptions, some may not be expected, but it's not to the point I question the method.

Boyle, Hayes and Kindl are expected as they have really high OZS%. It should drop at least a little. This is the the kind of extreme OZS% bias you would expect adjusted numbers to highlight. Kindl is a full 18% from the median! On the other hand Girardi with the worst OZS% is only 7% from the median.

Zucc, Stepan, Stralman and Leddy are close to middle of the road on both sides. Zucc and Stralman are known to be very good possession drivers. Unexpected, but not totally surprising to me they actually saw an increase. Stepan didn't move. Nothing unusual there, he's not been very good this year at driving possession or I would be surprised his didn't rise, especially considering how low it is unadjusted. Leddy dropped, with such a high unadjusted CF%, that doesn't stand out as unusual. Only .30% but he's also a good possession driver.

Lastly Weber, Girardi and Seidenberg. Girardi rose albeit not much, expected given the lowest OZS% on the list, but also not a possession driver. Seidenberg didn't move, not a possession driver, not unusual imo. Weber dropped. Unexpected for sure, he is a possession driver historically, but much like Stepan is not showing that this season.

I mean are you just expecting adjusted CF% by zone starts to immediately make people who get a lot of one or the other to see a rise or fall? Out of curiosity why would you expect it to be that black and white? Shouldn't the ability of the player to control possession have an impact on how much the zone start impacts them? Furthermore, the fact that all three players with the highest deviation from the 50/50 zone starts see their CF% impacted the way you would expect is telling.

Again, this is not a perfect method, but I don't see anything that really makes me say, "This can't be correct."

I'd like it to eliminate any potential bias and level the playing field for players who get absurd zone starts compared to others. I don't feel that removing 10 seconds of play from the data is doing that. Maybe we need to take a deeper dive than 10 players.

 

[Kel Varnsen]

I'd like it to eliminate any potential bias and level the playing field for players who get absurd zone starts compared to others. I don't feel that removing 10 seconds of play from the data is doing that. Maybe we need to take a deeper dive than 10 players.

There's definitely a better way to produce adjusted numbers than removing data. I actually didn't realize that's how they were producing these adjusted numbers. It seems like they should be able to mathematically figure out some factor number to normalize Ozone and Dzone starts with rather than pretending certain events didn't happen.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

There's definitely a better way to produce adjusted numbers than removing data. I actually didn't realize that's how they were producing these adjusted numbers. It seems like they should be able to mathematically figure out some factor number to normalize Ozone and Dzone starts with rather than pretending certain events didn't happen.

http://ownthepuck.blogspot.ca/

'Usage adjusted' adjusts for ZS, QoT and QoC. As stated before, you can adjust for every observable bias in the infinitude of the universe and Girardi still sucks at possessing/driving possession of the puck. That doesn't necessarily make him a bad defenseman, though.

IMO, if you look at RHD who play on top pairings across the league, DG def is on the lower end of the spectrum . It's weird though, gotta give credit where credit is due. He has survived and even flourished at times in a top-pair role despite having the physical skillset and senses of a bottom pair IMO. SAH shot-blocking iron man who plays in the face of top players and somehow has performed relatively well against them over the course of his career.

 

[Ail]

There's definitely a better way to produce adjusted numbers than removing data. I actually didn't realize that's how they were producing these adjusted numbers. It seems like they should be able to mathematically figure out some factor number to normalize Ozone and Dzone starts with rather than pretending certain events didn't happen.

Is there or isn't there? I'm getting a mixed signal here.

 

[Ail]

http://ownthepuck.blogspot.ca/

'Usage adjusted' adjusts for ZS, QoT and QoC. As stated before, you can adjust for every observable bias in the infinitude of the universe and Girardi still sucks at possessing/driving possession of the puck. That doesn't necessarily make him a bad defenseman, though.

IMO, if you look at RHD who play on top pairings across the league, DG def is on the lower end of the spectrum . It's weird though, gotta give credit where credit is due. He has survived and even flourished at times in a top-pair role despite having the physical skillset and senses of a bottom pair IMO. SAH shot-blocking iron man who plays in the face of top players and somehow has performed relatively against them over the course of his career.

HERO charts are not well liked 'round these parts, boy.

 

[Kel Varnsen]

Is there or isn't there? I'm getting a mixed signal here.

There definitely is, but as far as I can tell it hasn't been discovered yet. Truth isn't any less true because at a particular time it isn't known. There's definitely a better way to adjust for zone starts, but as far as I can tell at this moment in time it hasn't been revealed yet. I'm confident it will at some point in time, probably soon.

 

[Ail]

There definitely is, but as far as I can tell it hasn't been discovered yet.

This seems contradictory. I'm not sure how something that doesn't exist is definite.

I also don't think zone starts make the impact many people here assume they do.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

This seems contradictory. I'm not sure how something that doesn't exist is definite.

I also don't think zone starts make the impact many people here assume they do.

On average, or across all situations, perhaps not. But, DG plays in very unfavorable situations from a possession standpoint such as when leading in the third (where Girardi sees more ice time than anyone). Teams change how they play depending on score. That's why score adjusted metrics exist at the team level, to account for this. However, I am not sure how this gets factored into personal player evaluations, if at all.

I am also not saying that if you were to adjust for score, DG would have good possession numbers or be a 'good possession player'. He wouldn't. He sucks at handling the puck and driving possession in the direction away from his goal. Eye test with a big confirmation on that.

I am also not saying I think he is a 'bad' defenseman because of this, just not as good as most #2/top pair RHD across the league. Again kudos to him, skillset and senses of a bottom pair IMHO but has gotten the job done in his career as a #2.

 

[Ail]

On average, or across all situations, perhaps not. But, DG plays in very unfavorable situations from a possession standpoint such as when leading in the third (where Girardi sees more ice time than anyone). Teams change how they play depending on score. That's why score adjusted metrics exist at the team level, to account for this. However, I am not sure how this gets factored into personal player evaluations, if at all.

I am also not saying that if you were to adjust for score, DG would have good possession numbers or be a 'good possession player'. He wouldn't. He sucks at handling the puck and driving possession in the direction away from his goal. Eye test with a big confirmation on that.

I am also not saying I think he is a 'bad' defenseman because of this, just not as good as most #2/top pair RHD across the league. Again kudos to him, skillset and senses of a bottom pair IMHO but has gotten the job done in his career as a #2.

Right, which what most of the Girardi critics would agree on. Horrible possession driver, not a great top-pairing guy, has a skill set that is successful yet very situational.

 

[Kel Varnsen]

This seems contradictory. I'm not sure how something that doesn't exist is definite.

I also don't think zone starts make the impact many people here assume they do.

Think about scientific progress in general. There are a lot of things that don't exist now that people in certain fields are confident will exist soon. Or think through it backwards. Think about things today that we have that didn't exist in the recent past but were predicted with confidence to exist in the future.

 

[schabadoo]

Just a warrior out there, hope he's not injured.

 

[KingWantsCup]

Oh boy. Seemed to hit right under the glove. Based on the location of the puck hit and Girardi's unusual reaction I would say it's a broken wrist at worst and absolute best a bad bone bruise. If the ladder then it's a 4 week injury.

 

[eco's bones]

My guess is that injury is not all that serious and if he has to miss a game or two--up comes McIlrath.

 

[PromNite]

McI coming in for Girardi is like replacing steak with ground up hot dogs that the cook spit on. I sincerely hope it's nothing major and that he won't miss any games. But judging by the way that he gripped is arm and went off the ice, it looks like he will

 

[vladmyir111]

TSN feed showed he was cut on the forearm so it's definitely not the wrist, but still if it's broken he's out at least 2 rounds at this point.

Hopefully it's nothing, but in all the years when has Girardi ran off the ice into the tunnel? Never?

 

[RangerDude]

It doesn't look serious.

#NYR Injury Update: Dan Girardi suffered a "gash" on his arm according to AV when struck by puck...is receiving stitches

 

[vladmyir111]

It doesn't look serious.

looks that way, my guess is he wouldn't be out high fiving people if his arm was broken.

 

[Baby Punisher]

G is a warrior!

 

[eco's bones]

McI coming in for Girardi is like replacing steak with ground up hot dogs that the cook spit on. I sincerely hope it's nothing major and that he won't miss any games. But judging by the way that he gripped is arm and went off the ice, it looks like he will

FWIW--I'm not one of them but at least a few people here think Girardi kind of sucks. If he had to miss a couple game--that's not necessarily the end of the world and it wouldn't hurt McIlrath to get a couple games before the season was over.

As of now it sounds like he'll probably be playing Boston on Saturday though.

 

[PromNite]

Initial impressions after the game have Girardi with just a deep cut. If so, we lucked out hard. He's gonna be key in the playoffs

 

[LaffyTaffyNYR]

but.. its just Girardi.. he sucks anyway...

dude is a warrior.

 

[Kel Varnsen]

Great news on G with it only being a cut. He'll be fine. He's an original member of the Black and Blueshirts, it's just pain.