It’s an opinion more than anything, but if you want some numbers to make my case, here are the HF 2013 rankings of Stars prospects. For reference,
8 is first line forward/D pair/Goalie:
7 is second line forward/D pair/Journeyman Goalie:
6 is third line forward/D pair/Backup Goalie:
Nuke – 8.5 – Probably about the same ranking now.
Campbell – 8.0 (now probably 6, on one year deal to prove something)
Brendon Dillon – 7.5 – Now 6, Sharks got some offseason D help, Dillon now 3rd pair. Could bounce back, so maybe 6.5
Kevin Connaulton – 7 – Now third pair on bad D, or 6
Scott Glennie – 7 – Now a 0, or bust
Jirki Jokipakka – 6.5- Now a 6.5 (second or third pair D, probably third at 6)
Alex Chaisson – 7.5, Now struggling second liner, at 6.5 to 7
Brett Richie – 7.5 – Probably same, based on potential
Jamie O – 7.5 – no more than 6, probably 5.5 on one year deal to prove something
Alex Guptil – 7.5- Still in development, probably lower.
Jason Dickenson – 7.5, seems to have dropped, hard to tell. Say 7
Devin Shore – 7.5 – probably lower, hard to tell.
Radek Faksa- 7.0 – Now lower
Nemeth – 7.0 – about the same.
Klingberg – 7 – higher, about 8 to 8.5
If we take those drafted early enough to really project, we have:
Klinger has risen a grade
Nuke, Nemth, JJ, at same level
Ritchie probably at same level
Dillon, Connauton, Chaisson, JO, Campbell, Faksa, Glennie, at lower level
JD, Shore, Guptil hard to tell, maybe we split them up as one rises, one same, one drops.
The scorecard reads
2 rise – (13%)
5 at same level – 33%
8 dropped – 54%
And thus my statistically and historically valid point – more than half of prospects drop in rankings over time and less than half stay the same or rise.
The recent poll sure made it seem as if our fandom thinks all 20 will rise and make the NHL (since JJ was ranked so low)
Maybe you can spin the numbers differently using more complete stats. And I realize that different HF writers rank differently, etc.
Just MHO, but it isn’t just about making it to the NHL, a la Glennie or Campbell 1 game careers, its about impact. So do we count the Sceviors, etc. who are lower line forwards as successes? My view is that this team needs more top line players to improve. Statistically, our prospects are mid level talents, and have more than a 50% chance of not living up to even that potential.
We may get a few first line players, maybe a third of those 20 prospects will be second line/pair somewhere, and more than half will be low level performers or out of the league. I think Nil agrees to some point, as he has successfully traded quantities of prospects for proven players from other systems, even while stating that he wants to draft his core.
Sure, we hope its higher, but I am just trying to be realistic, even if slightly pessimistic.
I didn't take the time to refute your other point, but I am pretty sure I could find threads/posts lamenting taking JC over Fowler, and the lack of first round successes under the Niewy era - SG, JC, JO, RF, NONE of which have made the NHL (other than JO, who is now on a one year last ditch prove it deal, like JC and SG before him) That doesn't sound too promising to me.