Post-Game Talk: Dallas 6, Canucks 3. Part II.

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biturbo19

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I'd say after 5 games, the "can we waive him next month" type of comments are laughable. I'd rather wait 20 or 30 games to see how the team is playing WD's system before drawing many conclusions. Making the observation as something to keep an eye on (as some have done) is totally fair game though IMO.

I think it might do some people a bit of good to reminisce on where the New York Rangers were this time last year, getting absolutely blasted night in and night out, full on panic mode, etc...and where they ended up, in the Stanley Cup Finals. Not saying i expect this team to pull off the same sort of cinderella story or anything, but a bit of perspective on early season results with a new coach/system wouldn't really hurt.

The transition to Willie D's system has actually been fairly smooth...but it's still a transition. It's clear that it's still a work in progress.

So yeah...waiting a bit longer might be wise.
 

Ozone

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Fair enough. My opinion was based on research people have done into the effects of faceoffs on puck possession, but it doesn't really matter in the end. If people want to worry about faceoffs, they can have at it. That's sports -- we're all invariably worrying about something dumb, regardless :laugh:

The Importance of Faceoffs

As it turns out, faceoffs can play a semi-important role in hockey. I know that statement is completely obvious, but I mean it more in terms of advanced statistics. To the naked eye, winning a draw gives your team possession of the puck and control of play, which is certainly a good thing. But when you dig deeper, you can find that these wins can add up to some tangible results. There was a study done back in 2012 by Michael Schuckers, Tom Pasquali and Jim Curro from St. Lawrence University on the importance of the faceoff in hockey. The entire study can be found here, from Stats Sports Consulting.

To quickly sum up their findings, faceoffs can have an impact on any hockey game, and on a team's overall chances to make the playoffs. There are three real interesting findings that I want to point out here, which will be relevant for this article:

76 faceoff wins at even strength are worth approximately one goal in value.
41 faceoff wins on special teams are worth approximately one goal in value.

A team that wins 60% of their faceoff draws as opposed to 50% gains approximately 12 extra goals per season, which equates to two extra wins.
Therefore, a player who can produce wins in the faceoff circle can provide tangible results for his team, in terms of goals and wins. The more faceoffs a player wins, the more his team possesses the puck, and the more his team possesses the puck, the more goals that team will score. 76 faceoff wins may seem like a lot, but players who are really good at winning draws can win a lot more than they lose. And anyone who watched this thriller from last year knows that winning faceoffs on the power play can definitely lead to goals.
http://www.inlouwetrust.com/2014/8/2/5961081/an-undervalued-stat-analyzing-faceoffs-in-nj
 

MS

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The problem with saying that you'd get great results if you're at 60%! and terrible losses in the standings at 40%! is that nobody gets anywhere near that.

29 of 30 teams last year were between 53% and 47% in the faceoff circle. The 30th team was Calgary at 46%. I agree completely that faceoffs would be huge if it was physically possible to win 70% on a yearly basis. But that will never happen.

Faceoffs are a coin flip. If, somehow, we continue at 40%, it is indeed a major problem. But that's extremely unlikely to happen. Faceoffs are the most over-rated stat in the NHL and have only a very limited effect on a team's success. In the end, we'll probably be a 'bad' faceoff team at 47-48%, and that will cost us maybe 1 point in the standings relative to being a 50% team.
 

opendoor

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So they're pretty minimal.

Based on the normal ratio of ES time to special teams time in a game I'd say 65-70 won faceoffs is worth a goal using those numbers. So assuming 5000 faceoffs in a year (that's about what the Canucks had last season) the difference between being 46%, which is usually the worst in the league, and 50% is 200 won faceoffs which would be 3-4 GF over a season. Not a huge deal IMO.
 

Proto

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So they're pretty minimal.

Based on the normal ratio of ES time to special teams time in a game I'd say 65-70 won faceoffs is worth a goal using those numbers. So assuming 5000 faceoffs in a year (that's about what the Canucks had last season) the difference between being 46%, which is usually the worst in the league, and 50% is 200 won faceoffs which would be 3-4 GF over a season. Not a huge deal IMO.

Basically exactly the numbers I used (without being generous). Sounds right.
 

Nona Di Giuseppe

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I'm a little confused as to how pointing out that we're 29th in FO% is considered A) freaking out, or B) Not taking a deep breath?

I'm pointing out that we're near last place in a statistic, and it's also not as insignificant a stat as you make it out to be. Possession is important, starting with the puck is important, and plenty of goals get scored off won draws. Being an average faceoff team is fine and dandy, being one of the worst is not.

This is also a larger factor now the hash-marks have been spread apart. There will be more scoring off the draw.
 

DL44

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But overall statistically, its a minor effect...

76 faceoffs at even strength = 1 goal...
41 faceoffs on special teams = 1 goal...

Last yr the Canucks took just under 5000 faceoffs... 60 faceoffs per game...
Let's pretend 3/4 were ES... 1/4 were ST...

Say we are rolling at 47% for the yr... it means a 28-32 deficit overall per game
so we win 4 less overall = 3 less ES FO/game, and 1 less ST FO per game.

So that translates to 1 ES goal per 25 games.. and 2 ST goals per season deficit.

So the study you posted actually supports the actual limited effect of faceoffs over the course of a season...


Edit: i see opendoor ran with similar numbers.. and MS along the same line... I'm a slow typer.

In looking at the actual numbers.... Faceoffs are not a massive concern... and should never really be a critical dictator of who plays or who doesn't over other criteria.. Or else David Steckel would still be in the league and not in the A.
 
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biturbo19

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More than just the stuff posted about the impact of faceoffs in a general sense, there seems to be a tendency to ascertain who should/should not be a "Center" based on what they do in the faceoff dot, rather than what they do during the actual course of play...which is far more relevant.
 

Pip

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More than just the stuff posted about the impact of faceoffs in a general sense, there seems to be a tendency to ascertain who should/should not be a "Center" based on what they do in the faceoff dot, rather than what they do during the actual course of play...which is far more relevant.

Which is why I'm so shocked when people pencil in Vey on the wing. From what I've seen, his game is a lot more effective as a centre
 

Soups On

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I don't really get the Vey hate. Everyone realizes that he's rookie right? Not every rookie is like a Couterier that can step in and be good defensively. There is definitely a learning curve as the pace is much higher in the NHL than the AHL. Regarding faceoffs, again, there's a learning curve and having Vey watch someone take a faceoff won't help him at all. There's gonna be bumps along the road for Linden and it's up to the coaching staff to help him along the way.

With that said, he does need to improve his board work and defensive positioning and if we know it, chances are the trainers do (and so does Vey). Just need to be patient and let Vey work through it.
Trying him on the wing next to Bonino with the two alternating faceoffs is something I hope Willie D tries at some point. Puts Vey with a skilled playmaker and tests his ability to adapt (or keep him at center, just put Bones and Vey together).

Sedin Sedin Vrbata
Higgins/Burrows Vey Bonino
Higgins/Burrows Horvat Kassian
Matthias Richardson Dorsett/Hansen

There's a lot of combinations and potential for success, let's hope Willie finds it sooner than later.
 

Huggy

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I don't really get the Vey hate. Everyone realizes that he's rookie right? Not every rookie is like a Couterier that can step in and be good defensively. There is definitely a learning curve as the pace is much higher in the NHL than the AHL. Regarding faceoffs, again, there's a learning curve and having Vey watch someone take a faceoff won't help him at all. There's gonna be bumps along the road for Linden and it's up to the coaching staff to help him along the way.

With that said, he does need to improve his board work and defensive positioning and if we know it, chances are the trainers do (and so does Vey). Just need to be patient and let Vey work through it.
Trying him on the wing next to Bonino with the two alternating faceoffs is something I hope Willie D tries at some point. Puts Vey with a skilled playmaker and tests his ability to adapt (or keep him at center, just put Bones and Vey together).

Sedin Sedin Vrbata
Higgins/Burrows Vey Bonino
Higgins/Burrows Horvat Kassian
Matthias Richardson Dorsett/Hansen

There's a lot of combinations and potential for success, let's hope Willie finds it sooner than later.

kassian on 2nd line instead of burrows and that lineup does damage.
 

Bure All Day

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Every team wants a few guys that you can put out at a clutch point, knowing that he'll win the draw. Canucks lack one guy, let alone a few.

A guy who is really good at faceoffs might get close to winning 60% over the course of a season... FAR from being able to know that he's going to win the draw
 

John Bender*

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A guy who is really good at faceoffs might get close to winning 60% over the course of a season... FAR from being able to know that he's going to win the draw

The top end guy in the league pushes mid to upper 60 percent, no? That still means he loses about 35 percent of the draws he takes.

No one is automatic. The Canucks do need to address this issue though. Good team simply do not slot in at 28th in the league in face offs.
 

Bure All Day

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The top end guy in the league pushes mid to upper 60 percent, no? That still means he loses about 35 percent of the draws he takes.

No one is automatic. The Canucks do need to address this issue though. Good team simply do not slot in at 28th in the league in face offs.

You definitely mis-read what I typed. Try again
 
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