HF Habs: Current Standings Thread: Going the Wright Way - Top 7 pick Clinched!

[MarkovsKnee]

This is it! Season is almost done. Final 10 games. Last game is Friday, April 29th vs Florida at home.

The Standings as of April 20th:

Ground Rules for this thread:
• This is the thread where you can cheer against your Habs to improve their draft position. Want to tank? This is your sanctuary.

• If you root against the Habs in GDTs or other threads on the Habs board, you may be warned for trolling.

• Don't bring your anti-tank arguments here or you may be warned for trolling.

• Tank you for your support.

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[GrandBison]

There is always a possibility of a team going for a D at that spot. Wouldn't be THAT surprising for me but in my mind, top 3 are forwards this year.

Teams like San Jose or New Jersey could be tempted by a defenseman project with a lottery win

 

[HuGo Burner Acc]

I sure hope so but my fear is HuGos desire to turn things around quickly may have us closer to a wild card spot than bottom 5 next year. This offseason will tell us a lot

Problem is Hugo will have their hands tied up with clearing cap space all summer. The Suzuki extension also kicks in. They are anticipating a Caufield extension too. Even if it isn't done this summer, they'll have to keep their books cleared. They just don't have the capital necessary to make substantial moves this offseason. But I can see them making a big splash in 2023 offseason.

 

[themilosh]

How are my wonderful fellow Tankers? Almost there guys!! Continue to lose, and hope for an AZ win.. so close.

 

[dcyhabs]

There is always a possibility of a team going for a D at that spot. Wouldn't be THAT surprising for me but in my mind, top 3 are forwards this year.

Other than Wright most lists are pretty different. I expect surprises, even in the top few picks, and interviews could make a big difference. I've seen at least one site go really high on Savoie, Nemec, Cooley, Nazar, Lambert, Geekie, Slafkovsky, etc. at least point in time. I've seen other sites that point out flaws and list them later.

I'm not sure anything will be a surprise this year. We'll see if Wright even goes 1OA.

 

[WeThreeKings]

There's not really much that Hugo can do in this off season to make such a dramatic difference.

The only way this team gets dragged out of the bottom 10 is if Suzuki and Caufield play above PPG hockey all year long, Price returns to form, and a bunch of young prospects show early returns way ahead of schedule.

In which case, it's a good thing. There's no concern in my mind that the corpse of Gallagher, Edmundson and Savard, plus Anderson, Armia and Drouin will drag this team out of the bottom 10.

 

[beowulf]

There's not really much that Hugo can do in this off season to make such a dramatic difference.

The only way this team gets dragged out of the bottom 10 is if Suzuki and Caufield play above PPG hockey all year long, Price returns to form, and a bunch of young prospects show early returns way ahead of schedule.

In which case, it's a good thing. There's no concern in my mind that the corpse of Gallagher, Edmundson and Savard, plus Anderson, Armia and Drouin will drag this team out of the bottom 10.

Well that and Petry returning to form will help as I think he will.

Like usual for the Habs, at least over the last 20 years or so it seems, there is a TON of ifs, if this and if this and if this the team might be respectable etc.

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

you can add Radulov and Markov

Not for me but you can make your own list - I never blamed Bergevin for either of those guys leaving.

 

[CHwest]

I'm like 95% sure you're not a fan and just here to troll. You don't think fans should enjoy a run to the finals? Really?

It's fun, but you cannot hang your hat on it like a Cup. And it's not like we were a strong team and had a chance.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Well that and Petry returning to form will help as I think he will.

Like usual for the Habs, at least over the last 20 years or so it seems, there is a TON of ifs, if this and if this and if this the team might be respectable etc.

I think Petry is gone in the off season. He's played well enough and there will be enough teams eliminated early that will see a slightly retained Petry at 5ish as an attractive option to fix their defense on the right side.

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

How about not offer sheeting Aho in the first place so this whole situation never happens?

He got what he deserved.

This is was just the cherry on top. Guy had lost his mind long time ago. Not resign Markov was his worst mistake. Habs have never made the playoffs in a normal year since

Haha - you MUST be a closet Carolina fan - it's all you talk about. The Aho signing was no mistake. It cost the Canadiens nothing. It's not the Habs fault or Bergevin's that the Hurricanes can't get over things. Gosh that's hilarious. Of all the things to pick out! Oh my goodness - thanks for the chuckle...

 

[dcyhabs]

There is always a possibility of a team going for a D at that spot. Wouldn't be THAT surprising for me but in my mind, top 3 are forwards this year.

Other than Wright most lists are pretty different. I expect surprises, even in the top few picks, and interviews could make a big difference. I've seen at least one site go really high on Savoie, Nemec, Cooley, Nazar, Lambert, Geekie, Slafkovsky, Kemell, etc. at least point in time. I've seen other sites that point out flaws and list them later.

I'm not sure anything will be a surprise this year. We'll see if Wright even goes 1OA.

 

[Benstheman]

There's not really much that Hugo can do in this off season to make such a dramatic difference.

The only way this team gets dragged out of the bottom 10 is if Suzuki and Caufield play above PPG hockey all year long, Price returns to form, and a bunch of young prospects show early returns way ahead of schedule.

In which case, it's a good thing. There's no concern in my mind that the corpse of Gallagher, Edmundson and Savard, plus Anderson, Armia and Drouin will drag this team out of the bottom 10.

Exactly this. Suzuki and Caufiled won't play at PPG if they don't get bigger support. I can see some younger players making the jump but mostly on D. Ylonen and RHP might be making the jump but won't have a bigger impact than the Armias, Drouins and Gallaghers in their 1st season. Price won't return to form. If he plays at all for the Habs, it will be half the games. Even if he does a good job, it won't be enough to take the team out of the bottom 10.

Realistically, what we will see next season is complete season of what we experienced since the trade deadline. Suzuki and Caufield playing together and the rest will be a complete mess with lost veterans and experiences with young players up and down the line up. That's what is a real rebuild and i'm ok with that. Opportunities for the young players and auditions for the veterans that will stay for the next step.

 

[beowulf]

I think Petry is gone in the off season. He's played well enough and there will be enough teams eliminated early that will see a slightly retained Petry at 5ish as an attractive option to fix their defense on the right side.

That's a possibility also personally would move others before him but he is probably going to get more interest than Savard etc.

 

[Nicko999]

Haha - you MUST be a closet Carolina fan - it's all you talk about. The Aho signing was no mistake. It cost the Canadiens nothing. It's not the Habs fault or Bergevin's that the Hurricanes can't get over things. Gosh that's hilarious. Of all the things to pick out! Oh my goodness - thanks for the chuckle...

No Canes fan at all.

But you my friend have an unhealthy approval of Bergevin.

 

[Habs Halifax]

It's fun, but you cannot hang your hat on it like a Cup. And it's not like we were a strong team and had a chance.

In terms of being a year/year contender, we were not yes. But I'm pretty sure you have been low on the Habs for a while now and even after that play in playoffs where we beat the Pens and were in the North division the year after, you and others also said we would not even make the playoffs. We reach a cup finals due to covid circumstance and there are still fans who are trying to diminish what the players did and calling it a fluke. Why? It reeks of Bergevin hate and it's always a diminish narrative as a result.

What's your point? Bergevin should have not tried to improve the team and the cup finals was meaningless cause we were not year/year contenders?

Even the "optimistic" ones felt we were a bubble team that could cause some damage. But something tells me you will try to say the optimistic ones thought we were contenders. False! Most felt we were not contenders so I just don't see the point of throwing the cup finals under the rug. Just be happy we have new management and lets not try to diminish what the players accomplished. You don't win playoff rounds on a fluke. That's just absolute nonsense

 

[Spring in Fialta]

It's fun, but you cannot hang your hat on it like a Cup. And it's not like we were a strong team and had a chance.

Nobody did that. You're making this up. You're just looking for reasons to whine. It's kind of weird, honestly. You should probably give up on the Habs, TBH.

 

[Adam Michaels]

I think Petry is gone in the off season. He's played well enough and there will be enough teams eliminated early that will see a slightly retained Petry at 5ish as an attractive option to fix their defense on the right side.

I remember one report a few months back said that Detroit was interested in Petry, but only wanted to pay $5M, meaning Habs would retain $1.25M for the remainder of his deal.

And then at the TDL, Renaud Lavoie on TVA Sports reported that there have been talks between Yzerman and Hughes regarding Petry.

So it's very possible the groundwork on a potential deal between them has been laid.

Red Wings traded Leddy. DeKeyser and Staal are in the final year of their deals. I imagine Staal might be extended. So I can see Yzerman wanting to bring another vet D to help with their young guys. Also going back home could be a real big motivator for Petry.

 

[Habs Halifax]

No Canes fan at all.

But you my friend have an unhealthy approval for Bergevin.

It don't have to be a love or hate thing with Bergevin. You can be in the middle and call out both the pros and cons vs being overly one sided.

An unhealthy approval for Bergevin can be spinned into an negative obsession to diminish. Both sides really don't look good if you want to draw a line in the sand and make it like that. People need to drop the pro vs anti Bergevin narratives. It's nonsense

 

[dcyhabs]

Haha - you MUST be a closet Carolina fan - it's all you talk about. The Aho signing was no mistake. It cost the Canadiens nothing. It's not the Habs fault or Bergevin's that the Hurricanes can't get over things. Gosh that's hilarious. Of all the things to pick out! Oh my goodness - thanks for the chuckle...

Sure. Nobody does offer sheets for years and years because they're sure that other teams would match and retaliate at an inconvenient time. Bergevin does a rash offer sheet more to look like he's trying to get a center and get the press off his back than because he actually thinks it will work, or, worse, because he's dumb enough to think it will work. Surprise, the 'Canes do what everyone expected, match the offer and exploit Bergevin's bad relationship with a player to take the guy with an overpay. How could anyone ever have expected such a thing.

Look, Kotkaniemi may bust, but that doesn't make the whole mess something Bergevin can be proud of. I suppose best case Dvorak breaks out and Kotkaniemi busts, but, more likely, Dvorak ends up as a C who can play top 2 lines or succeed at shutdown, and KK eventually becomes a reasonable 2C or 3C. As with most of Bergevin's move each individual part isn't so bad, but the whole is pretty bad. Reaching with a 3OA is risky, but it could work out if he develops, but then you yoyo the project and kill his development. Ooh destroy the relationship, he's an RFA so it doesn't hurt, well, unless you also annoy another team into offer sheeting him, but that could be OK if he busts, you get a pick, unless you trade that pick for a player who doesn't fit your team. Yet another reason they are capped out and bottom 3 in the league.

Most of the individual steps are bad and dumb but excusable. The whole snowball effect from lack of foresight and poor management lets the consistently bad and ill fitting moves add up to a huge mess. Out of the five or six steps in the process Bergevin probably just had to get one or two right, but he messed up each step pretty impressively.

 

[Colezuki]

			Straight line	QOC
	Points	GR	TODAY	Total	Extra Points	TODAY QOC	Total	Extra Points
Arizona	49​	6​	32.2%​	50.9​	1.9​	59.1%​	1.26​	50.3​
Montreal	51​	5​	33.1%​	52.7​	1.7​	58.2%​	1.24​	52.2​
Seattle	56​	7​	37.3%​	58.6​	6.6​	57.6%​	2.21​	58.2​
New Jersey	61​	6​	40.1%​	63.4​	7.4​	52.4%​	2.86​	63.9​
Philadelphia	57​	5​	37.0%​	58.9​	1.9​	46.8%​	3.01​	60.0​
Ottawa	65​	5​	42.2%​	67.1​	9.1​	49.1%​	2.86​	67.9​
CHI	61​	6​	40.1%​	63.4​	4​	49.7%​	3.26​	64.3​
Total	400​	40​	3​	​	33​		17​	​

Revised Model from a few ago, MTL and Zona still have the toughest stretch here to close the year and with seattles latest wins It thinks that we're going to finish 2nd. May work on this more as I do get enjoyment out of it for next year in particular

 

[covfefe]

			Straight line	QOC
	Points	GR	TODAY	Total	Extra Points	TODAY QOC	Total	Extra Points
Arizona	49​	6​	32.2%​	50.9​	1.9​	59.1%​	1.26​	50.3​
Montreal	51​	5​	33.1%​	52.7​	1.7​	58.2%​	1.24​	52.2​
Seattle	56​	7​	37.3%​	58.6​	6.6​	57.6%​	2.21​	58.2​
New Jersey	61​	6​	40.1%​	63.4​	7.4​	52.4%​	2.86​	63.9​
Philadelphia	57​	5​	37.0%​	58.9​	1.9​	46.8%​	3.01​	60.0​
Ottawa	65​	5​	42.2%​	67.1​	9.1​	49.1%​	2.86​	67.9​
CHI	61​	6​	40.1%​	63.4​	4​	49.7%​	3.26​	64.3​
Total	400​	40​	3​	​	33​		17​	​

Revised Model from a few ago, MTL and Zona still have the toughest stretch here to close the year and with seattles latest wins It thinks that we're going to finish 2nd. May work on this more as I do get enjoyment out of it for next year in particular

Nice, very cool.

Micah McCurdy is also doing some interesting modelling that you might find interesting:

https://twitter.com/IneffectiveMath

 

[Habs Halifax]

			Straight line	QOC
	Points	GR	TODAY	Total	Extra Points	TODAY QOC	Total	Extra Points
Arizona	49​	6​	32.2%​	50.9​	1.9​	59.1%​	1.26​	50.3​
Montreal	51​	5​	33.1%​	52.7​	1.7​	58.2%​	1.24​	52.2​
Seattle	56​	7​	37.3%​	58.6​	6.6​	57.6%​	2.21​	58.2​
New Jersey	61​	6​	40.1%​	63.4​	7.4​	52.4%​	2.86​	63.9​
Philadelphia	57​	5​	37.0%​	58.9​	1.9​	46.8%​	3.01​	60.0​
Ottawa	65​	5​	42.2%​	67.1​	9.1​	49.1%​	2.86​	67.9​
CHI	61​	6​	40.1%​	63.4​	4​	49.7%​	3.26​	64.3​
Total	400​	40​	3​	​	33​		17​	​

Revised Model from a few ago, MTL and Zona still have the toughest stretch here to close the year and with seattles latest wins It thinks that we're going to finish 2nd. May work on this more as I do get enjoyment out of it for next year in particular

I'm calling 31st spot (pre lottery) now. There is a very solid probability that the Coyotes don't catch us but we don't catch the Kraken or Flyers either. Even if we beat the Flyers tomorrow.

2nd pick (pre lottery). Top 4 pick after lottery. Book it people! The numbers and probability support it

 

[Lshap]

How about not offer sheeting Aho in the first place so this whole situation never happens?

He got what he deserved.

This is was just the cherry on top. Guy had lost his mind long time ago. Not resign Markov was his worst mistake. Habs have never made the playoffs in a normal year since

The original mistake was drafting poorly. Had our scouts not screwed up a 3OA pick, we'd have a player who would be part of a future core and (hopefully) signed. The Habs desperately need cap space; the last thing we need is another longterm contract for a depth player.

Markov wasn't close to the worst move, although I'd agree it was the worst PR move.

As to the playoffs, last year was as legit as any. There have been many configurations of divisions/teams/matchups over the decades. Unless you want to rewrite history, the Habs earned it like every team in every division in every season.

 

[Colezuki]

Nice, very cool.

Micah McCurdy is also doing some interesting modelling that you might find interesting:

https://twitter.com/IneffectiveMath

he's what kinda inspired me, my model is probably rudimentary compared to his, but at the same time as he seems to focus on expected goals. I think I'd try and look at streaks next year more to determine it

 

[26Mats]

I'm calling 31st spot (pre lottery) now. There is a very solid probability that the Coyotes don't catch us but we don't catch the Kraken or Flyers either. Even if we beat the Flyers tomorrow.

2nd pick (pre lottery). Top 4 pick after lottery. Book it people! The numbers and probability support it

I'm expecting us to pick 3rd or 4th, based on the numbers.

Hopefully we get lucky and it will be 1 or 2.