HF Habs: Current Standings Thread: Going the Wright Way - Top 7 pick Clinched!

[MarkovsKnee]

This is it! Season is almost done. Final 10 games. Last game is Friday, April 29th vs Florida at home.

The Standings as of April 20th:

Ground Rules for this thread:
• This is the thread where you can cheer against your Habs to improve their draft position. Want to tank? This is your sanctuary.

• If you root against the Habs in GDTs or other threads on the Habs board, you may be warned for trolling.

• Don't bring your anti-tank arguments here or you may be warned for trolling.

• Tank you for your support.

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[rahad]

Last time, we put so much effort into tanking has the year of 2012. All those top prospect talk, wishing others team to win(lol).... Will not be surprise to see ''mock draft'' on May or June.

Anyone else getting 2012 vibe from this forum???

 

[Sorinth]

Depending on what we land at the lottery - what is the number where you consider trading down to CLB for their two firsts (including a + from MTL more than likely)?

Getting the right guy is probably more important for us then getting more darts so I'm not sure I do it unless I'm very confidant that "my" guy will still be on board. Which for me personally is one of the D, which is actually a possibility especially if there's a surprise pick like Lambert/Kemell.

Since the NYR under Gorton traded up a few times, perhaps the better question is do we flip our two 1sts to move up?

 

[Sorinth]

I don’t understand why in the world you have MORE chances to pick lower than your final rank. The lottery is a s**** show and the NHL is a freaking joke. It shouldn only count the top 10 and with lower odds

I prefer this to the previous lotteries but if I was in charge I would go to a draft wheel model. No more tanking/cheering to lose, and you have a clearer path when trying to rebuild.

 

[The Great Weal]

If Philly wins just 3 games in their next 10, we would have to go 7-3 to pass them. So that’s not happening.

If Devils win 3 games in their next 10, we would have to go 6-4 to pass them. Possible but unlikely at this point. They also play Kraken and Coyotes.

Seems like a top 5 pick is nearly guaranteed.

 

[Tetragrammaton]

If Philly wins just 3 games in their next 10, we would have to go 7-3 to pass them. So that’s not happening.

If Devils win 3 games in their next 10, we would have to go 6-4 to pass them. Possible but unlikely at this point. They also play Kraken and Coyotes.

Seems like a top 5 pick is nearly guaranteed.

Slafkovsky - Suzuki - Caufield

This is gonna be a killer 1st line

 

[KevSkillz4]

If Devils win 3 games in their next 10, we would have to go 6-4 to pass them. Possible but unlikely at this point. They also play Kraken and Coyotes.

Seems like a top 5 pick is nearly guaranteed.

Yes, if Flyers wins 3 games in their 10 games remaining... Habs are not going to catch them. They have more wins right now with 23 wins... and if wins are equal... with their 11 loses in OT... 23 + 11 = 34. Habs are 20 + 11 = 31. So they got the tiebreaker.

 

[Colezuki]

Bit bored and do analysis for a living so thought I'd try something, two simple models

			Straight line	Straight Line	Straight Line	QOC	QOC	QOC
	Points	GR	TODAY	Total	Extra Points	TODAY QOC	Extra Points	Total
Arizona	49​	10​	34.0%​	52.4​	3.4​	58.5%​	2.50​	51.5​
Montreal	51​	10​	36.1%​	54.6​	3.6​	57.6%​	3.02​	54.0​
Seattle	52​	10​	35.4%​	55.5​	3.5​	56.3%​	3.30​	55.3​
New Jersey	56​	10​	38.9%​	59.9​	3.9​	51.8%​	4.81​	60.8​
Philadelphia	57​	10​	39.6%​	61.0​	4.0​	52.1%​	4.81​	61.8​
Ottawa	58​	11​	40.8%​	62.5​	4.5​	51.5%​	5.55​	63.6​
CHI	59​	11​	41.5%​	63.6​	5​	52.2%​	5.43​	64.4​

Model 1 is simnple straight line, just for perspective. But I also modeled based on QOC, Arizona, MTL and Seattle all have the toughest schedules remaining of the bottom 7 teams. Average of the league is 0.5542.

IT does show though that there looks to be two distinct tiers at the bottom, ARI, MTL and Sea and everyone else. It also predicts that we finish 2nd when the dust settles

Also curious to check in on this at the end of the month as there are a couple different factors at play that I couldn't quantify (probably could if I took some more time). Those include the games between teams in this pool (right now 8 in total exist between the bottom 7. NJD atrocious slide since Jack hughes went down and the impact at seasons end of teams mailing it in. (Example BOS, NYR, FLA are our last three games, do they rest starters, compared to Ottawa who has BOS TOR inside of their next 4.)

 

[Tripledeke333]

IMO it would huge for this franchise to land Wright or Cooley. We would be set at center for years with Suzuki and Wright/Cooley. That duo would make us a tough team to play against.

 

[JianYang]

That being said SEA has a better record than MTL over the past ten games… Always hope

It surprises me that the habs are 2 games under 500 in the last 10 games. It feels to me like they have been hovering around 500 in their last 10 games, but I guess all that losing under ducharme skews the perception of what a good stretch feels like.

I think the habs finish 30th but let's see how it goes.

 

[Milhouse40]

For sure. Though usually two teams move up, so I think the most likely scenario is we will pick 5th.

Well, that's the worst case scenario than the more likely one. As you say....usually two teams move up and we might end up with the best odds of being one of those two teams. Regardless, we can't control this outcome.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

Well, that's the worst case scenario than the more likely one. As you say....usually two teams move up and we might end up with the best odds of being one of those two teams. Regardless, we can't control this outcome.

If you finish 3rd last you are most likely picking 4th. I think we end up 3rd last so am expecting to pick 4th. Hopefully Jiricek comes back and plays amazing and turns the top 3 into a top 4.

 

[Luigi Habs]

As much as it will suck to have the 3rd slot heading into the lottery, the reality is we are simply not on the same level of suck as Seattle and Arizona. Brace yourselves, but we are likely picking 5th when it’s all said and done.

Last time we drafted 5th we got Price. Last 2 times we drafted 3rd we got Galchenyuk and KK. I’m ok drafting 5th.

 

[Milhouse40]

If you finish 3rd last you are most likely picking 4th. I think we end up 3rd last so am expecting to pick 4th. Hopefully Jiricek comes back and plays amazing and turns the top 3 into a top 4.

Finishing 3rd gives you great odds of moving 2nd or 1st also, we did move up in the KK year.
I'm personnaly ready to see a top 5 pick, I just leave the rest to the lottery.

What's weird about this draft is that you have Wright and after that....no one knows. I could see Jiricek going 2nd just like I could see Cooley or Slafkovsky going 2nd too. Very hard to predict.

 

[Milhouse40]

Last time we drafted 5th we got Price. Last 2 times we drafted 3rd we got Galchenyuk and KK. I’m ok drafting 5th.

Yeah...too much stock are being made about having the highest pick, most concentrate of picking the right guy either it's at 1st or 25th overall.

Still can't figure out how in the hell we got Caufield at 15......

 

[KevSkillz4]

Yeah...too much stock are being made about having the highest pick, most concentrate of picking the right guy either it's at 1st or 25th overall.

Still can't figure out how in the hell we got Caufield at 15......

Suzuki is 13th OA.
Caufield is 15th OA.
Guhle is 16th OA.
Mailloux is 31th OV.
Romanov is 38th OA.
Farrell is 124th OA.
Roy is 150th OA.

Suzuki is a top 5 talent.
Caufield is a top 5 talent.
Guhle is a top 10 talent (in another year than the stacked 2020 year).
Romanov is a top 20 talent.
Mailloux is a top 15 talent.
Farrell is a top 20 talent.
Roy is a top 20 talent. (maybe more).

Habs got really good talent//potential in their system... and they are not even picking in top 5.

 

[RationalExpectations]

Yeah...too much stock are being made about having the highest pick, most concentrate of picking the right guy either it's at 1st or 25th overall.

Still can't figure out how in the hell we got Caufield at 15......

recent cup winners :
LAK : Doughty 2 OA, Carter Kopitar 11 OA
CHI : Kane 1 OA Toews 3 OA Seabrook 14 OA
PIT : Crosby Fleury 1 OA, Malkin 2 OA, Kessel 5 OA Staal 2 OA
WSH : Ovi 1 OA Bacsktrom 4 OA
STL : Schenn Pietrangelo 4 OA
TBL : Stamkos 1 OA Hedman 2 OA

not messing your top pick is kind of nice for your core

 

[RationalExpectations]

Suzuki is 13th OA.
Caufield is 15th OA.
Guhle is 16th OA.
Mailloux is 31th OV.
Romanov is 38th OA.
Farrell is 124th OA.
Roy is 150th OA.

Suzuki is a top 5 talent.
Caufield is a top 5 talent.
Guhle is a top 10 talent (in another year than the stacked 2020 year).
Romanov is a top 20 talent.
Mailloux is a top 15 talent.
Farrell is a top 20 talent.
Roy is a top 20 talent. (maybe more).

Habs got really good talent//potential in their system... and they are not even picking in top 5.

Top 5 talent like potential being one of the 5 best centers in the league ? You kidding right ?

 

[KevSkillz4]

Top 5 talent like potential being one of the 5 best centers in the league ? You kidding right ?

In their respective draft. Based on re-draft, based on talent, Suzuki, Caufield are top 5 talent in their draft. Maybe 6-7, but it's debeatable. The talent they worth to be picking at top 5 pick.

 

[Rockomax]

Last time we drafted 5th we got Price. Last 2 times we drafted 3rd we got Galchenyuk and KK. I’m ok drafting 5th.

Also, the Price draft was much deeper than Galchenyuk and KK drafts.

 

[McGees]

Hopefully he helps them win a game or 2.

 

[Vachon23]

Last time, we put so much effort into tanking has the year of 2012. All those top prospect talk, wishing others team to win(lol).... Will not be surprise to see ''mock draft'' on May or June.

Anyone else getting 2012 vibe from this forum???

I would say that in 2012, they where no players with the talent of Shane Wright though

 

[sheed36]

You see MSL we tried to tell you that you were way overplaying Allen and by doing so you broke him from facing all these shots. I still don't see why playing him every game was necessary at this point but what do I know.

 

[ArtPeur]

Suzuki is 13th OA.
Caufield is 15th OA.
Guhle is 16th OA.
Mailloux is 31th OV.
Romanov is 38th OA.
Farrell is 124th OA.
Roy is 150th OA.

Suzuki is a top 5 talent.
Caufield is a top 5 talent.
Guhle is a top 10 talent (in another year than the stacked 2020 year).
Romanov is a top 20 talent.
Mailloux is a top 15 talent.
Farrell is a top 20 talent.
Roy is a top 20 talent. (maybe more).

Habs got really good talent//potential in their system... and they are not even picking in top 5.

You should probably add "in another year than the [selected] year" for Caufield and Suzuki. There were a lot of good names in their draft. More or less the same for Romanov but top-20 is more debatable than top5.
Let's wait a bit on Mailloux who only played 12 games this season and Roy translating his game to the pro (specifically the NHL: See the Farrell vs Roy thread.)

 

[Ezpz]

Honestly I see 4 really good prospects at the top. 5th is ok. If we drop further than that season was a fail. Not sure I want Nimec; I don't put much stock into Slovakian league stats.

 

[McGees]

Bit bored and do analysis for a living so thought I'd try something, two simple models

			Straight line	Straight Line	Straight Line	QOC	QOC	QOC
	Points	GR	TODAY	Total	Extra Points	TODAY QOC	Extra Points	Total
Arizona	49​	10​	34.0%​	52.4​	3.4​	58.5%​	2.50​	51.5​
Montreal	51​	10​	36.1%​	54.6​	3.6​	57.6%​	3.02​	54.0​
Seattle	52​	10​	35.4%​	55.5​	3.5​	56.3%​	3.30​	55.3​
New Jersey	56​	10​	38.9%​	59.9​	3.9​	51.8%​	4.81​	60.8​
Philadelphia	57​	10​	39.6%​	61.0​	4.0​	52.1%​	4.81​	61.8​
Ottawa	58​	11​	40.8%​	62.5​	4.5​	51.5%​	5.55​	63.6​
CHI	59​	11​	41.5%​	63.6​	5​	52.2%​	5.43​	64.4​

Model 1 is simnple straight line, just for perspective. But I also modeled based on QOC, Arizona, MTL and Seattle all have the toughest schedules remaining of the bottom 7 teams. Average of the league is 0.5542.

IT does show though that there looks to be two distinct tiers at the bottom, ARI, MTL and Sea and everyone else. It also predicts that we finish 2nd when the dust settles

Also curious to check in on this at the end of the month as there are a couple different factors at play that I couldn't quantify (probably could if I took some more time). Those include the games between teams in this pool (right now 8 in total exist between the bottom 7. NJD atrocious slide since Jack hughes went down and the impact at seasons end of teams mailing it in. (Example BOS, NYR, FLA are our last three games, do they rest starters, compared to Ottawa who has BOS TOR inside of their next 4.)

Nice analysis. Did you incorporate the MSL and Price variables tho