Crunching the Numbers: Why Re-Building is Harder than Ever

[Frk It]

Exactly - maximize the odds of getting what the team needs to be competitive again (even if those odds kind of suck to begin with). Maximize your chances of pulling a Subban or Weber out of the 2nd round (by taking, as Frk It said, the high ceiling players, and by having as many spins at the wheel as possible), maximize your chances of grabbing a Bergeron, and maximize your chances of getting that #1/#2 for Dahlin or Svech (whichever you prefer). Trying to play this "well, we don't have to suck too much, and then anything can happen!" game is ridiculous. Missing the playoffs because you were "only" the 8th worst team in the league (after spending most of the season as one of the three worst) isn't going to endear you to fans any more than just being one of the 3 worst teams the whole way.

The point is that at some point we are talking about diminishing returns. That's what the league wants. The balance where the worst teams still have the best odds, but the odds aren't good enough to incentivize teams to be bad. That's what the goal of this lottery re-structure was.

 

[Henkka]

I estimated us to be 6th-3rd worst team in the league based on latest seasons and some trends we and opposite teams are having.

29th - 30.7%
28th - 30.7%
27th- 26.0%
26th- 23.4%

Those would be the percentages in lottery, to get a TOP3 pick. 27.7% on average.

So in every ~4th year we should get a lottery pick, if we stay on the bottom.

 

[Dotter]

I feel like teams have a better chance at snagging a Duncan Keith or Shea Weber type talent in the 2nd round than getting the #1 pick if you're bottom 5 in the league.

That's why I don't get the purposely tanking thought process. Getting the #1 pick is never a guarantee and could take years to get that one lucky hit. Hardly worth it.

People use examples what TML did, but they got incredibly lucky and are the outlier. Their luck is something Oilers have been trying to find since before the McDavid pick, and have whiffed out and failed for a decade.

I think every season the GM should be shooting for the playoffs without selling the farm. And make trades like Kenny did last season; Smith, Vanek, Jurco, Ott.... Though I would have liked to have kept Smith for a much cheaper price. But he's not worth what Rangers gave him.

Realistically, there wasn't *much* Kenny could have done to change the future of the team in the grand scheme of things. Wings didn't get "lucky". There might be small insignificant hindsight-20/20 things that he could've done differently... ie, Hossa over Franzen, but that wouldn't have done anything as far as winning cups.

And biggest thing people always turn their blind eye to is ***OWNERSHIP*** - They want revenue. New Arena... etc. That is the biggest motivation for the Red Wings Franchise. The absolute biggest motivation factor.

 

[njx9]

The point is that at some point we are talking about diminishing returns. That's what the league wants. The balance where the worst teams still have the best odds, but the odds aren't good enough to incentivize teams to be bad. That's what the goal of this lottery re-structure was.

Absolutely, but again, if you're going to be bad, why not maximize those bad odds? What's the benefit to being the 6th worst team, rather than being the 3rd worst team with a few more shots at the better pick? I get that the league didn't want teams to tank, but there's just not a lot of incentive for an already bad team to not just be worse.

Regardless, I think the argument is that some folks think the team can keep pushing for 8th place, and default into a Philadelphia move if they just miss, right? It seems clear that that's a failing strategy the vast majority of the time.

 

[Frk It]

I estimated us to be 6th-3rd worst team in the league based on latest seasons and some trends we and opposite teams are having.

29th - 30.7%
28th - 30.7%
27th- 26.0%
26th- 23.4%

Those would be the percentages in lottery, to get a TOP3 pick. 27.7% on average.

So in every ~4th year we should get a lottery pick, if we stay on the bottom.

Man, that's depressing.

This lottery re-structure is a good measure to deter teams from tanking. But man, it just makes re-building for teams looking to get their new core so much harder.

Like, I understand you have to protect the integrity of the product, and teams jockeying for last place does not help. But when you have teams like Edmonton get multiple #1 picks and STILL take forever to re-build, how are teams supposed to get out of the basement with a best case scenario of a 48.1% chance at a top 3 pick?

I don't see how teams don't flounder forever and pressure the NHL to throw them a rope with this lottery system.

 

[Henkka]

I feel like teams have a better chance at snagging a Duncan Keith or Shea Weber type talent in the 2nd round than getting the #1 pick if you're bottom 5 in the league.

That's why I don't get the purposely tanking thought process. Getting the #1 pick is never a guarantee and could take years to get that one lucky hit. Hardly worth it.

People use examples what TML did, but they got incredibly lucky and are the outlier. Their luck is something Oilers have been trying to find since before the McDavid pick, and have whiffed out and failed for a decade.

I think every season the GM should be shooting for the playoffs without selling the farm. And make trades like Kenny did last season; Smith, Vanek, Jurco, Ott.... Though I would have liked to have kept Smith for a much cheaper price. But he's not worth what Rangers gave him.

Realistically, there wasn't *much* Kenny could have done to change the future of the team in the grand scheme of things. Wings didn't get "lucky". There might be small insignificant hindsight-20/20 things that he could've done differently... ie, Hossa over Franzen, but that wouldn't have done anything as far as winning cups.

And biggest thing people always turn their blind eye to is ***OWNERSHIP*** - They want revenue. New Arena... etc. That is the biggest motivation for the Red Wings Franchise. The absolute biggest motivation factor.

Exactly.

Good good good good... absolutely great post.

This is 100% how things are.

 

[Frk It]

Absolutely, but again, if you're going to be bad, why not maximize those bad odds? What's the benefit to being the 6th worst team, rather than being the 3rd worst team with a few more shots at the better pick? I get that the league didn't want teams to tank, but there's just not a lot of incentive for an already bad team to not just be worse.

Regardless, I think the argument is that some folks think the team can keep pushing for 8th place, and default into a Philadelphia move if they just miss, right? It seems clear that that's a failing strategy the vast majority of the time.

I think we're a little naive as to how much it is in our control of whether we are the 3rd, 6th, 9th worst team or whatever.

 

[Frk It]

I feel like teams have a better chance at snagging a Duncan Keith or Shea Weber type talent in the 2nd round than getting the #1 pick if you're bottom 5 in the league.

They most definitely do not.

 

[Flowah]

And biggest thing people always turn their blind eye to is ***OWNERSHIP*** - They want revenue. New Arena... etc. That is the biggest motivation for the Red Wings Franchise. The absolute biggest motivation factor.

You are at some point going to have to admit that if revenue is the biggest motivation, then icing a contender comes second. And if it comes second, it will almost necessarily suffer to prop up revenue. And if that's true, then how can you simultaneously defend all of Holland's moves as being best for the team *and* that they're just being made because the owners want money?

Besides, what makes more money? 5 playoff appearances with 1 cup finals and 5 playoff misses, or 10 playoff 1st round exits? Hell, at the rate we're going, we're not going to be doing either of them, all in the name of "revenue."

We could sell all our picks next season and our entire farm team for some good players right now and make the playoffs this season. Maybe even go to the 2nd or 3rd round. That would get plenty of good revenue for the new arena! It would be an idiotic decision though. This is where you say "Holland would never do that because that's dumb and shortsighted" but I'd say what we're doing now is almost just as dumb and shortsighted. We're still huge longshots to make the playoffs and we're not bad enough to get a high pick. We're the worst of both worlds. You keep trying to sell this as the only way for either money reasons or because a 1st overall isn't a guarantee. But all you've done is try to justify that we are mired in mediocrity forever.

 

[Henkka]

They most definitely do not.

I think it's nowadays a 50/50 split.

50% from Elite Talents will come from Top15 picks. Every team ouside of playoffs have one chance there.

But another 50% of Elite Talents will come outside of TOP15. It's all other draft pick probabilities combined together.

They are there.

Just get lucky with them in maximizing your draft picks and analyzes.

#33 COL, C Ryan O'Reilly
#35 CAR, F Sebastian Aho
#37 CBJ, F Boone Jenner
#43 CHI, LW Brandon Saad
#47 LAK, RW Tyler Toffoli
#51 NYR, C Derek Stepan
#55 MTL, W Artturi Lehkonen
#58 ARZ, C Christian Dvorak
#58 TBL, RW Nikita Kucherov
#60 DET, W Tomas Tatar
#61 LAK, W Wayne Simmonds
#64 FLO, C Vincent Trocheck
#75 NYR, F Pavel Buchnevich
#77 PIT, LW Jake Guentzel
#79 TBL, C Brayden Point
#104 CGY, LW Johnny Hockey
#110 DET, F Andreas Athanasiou
#112 NSH, W Viktor Arvidsson
#121 DET, W Gustav Nyquist
#129 DAL, LW Jamie Benn
#130 OTT, LW Mike Hoffman
#147 MTL, RW Brendan Callagher
#157 CBJ, RW Cam Atkinson
#178 OTT, RW Mark Stone
#208 TBL, LW Ondrej Palat


#37 CAR, RD Justin Faulk
#37 BOS, RD Brandon Carlo
#38 NSH, LD Roman Josi
#43 MTL, RD PK Subban
#43 ANA, RD Justin Schultz
#53 NYI, RD Travis Hamonic
#64 COL, RD Tyson Barrie
#66 CAR, RD Brett Pesce
#78 PHI, LD Shayne Gostisbehere
#86 STL, RD Colton Parayko
#95 LAK, LD Alec Martinez
#102 NSH, LD Mattias Ekholm
#106 ANA, RD Sami Vatanen
#114 CGY, LD TJ Brodie
#120 CAR, LD Jaccob Slavin
#131 DAL, RD John Klingberg
#141 LAK, LD Jake Muzzin
#160 ANA, RD Josh Manson
#201 SJS, RD Justin Braun

Looks like Carolina and Tampa Bay has been drafting best on latest years outside of the 1st round.

Let's hire their scouting directors, whatever it would cost. Let's burn some PIZZA money!

EDIT:

Teams with most hits outside of 1st:

Carolina, 4 (1x forward, 3x defenceman)
Los Angeles, 4 (2x forward, 2x defenceman)
Anaheim, 3 (3x defenceman)
Nashville, 3 (1x forward, 2x defenceman)
Montreal, 3 (2x forward, 1 defenceman)
Tampa Bay, 3 (3x forward)
Detroit, 3 (3x forward)
Dallas, 2 (1 forward, 1 defenceman)
Colorado, 2 (1 forward, 1 defenceman)
Calgary, 2 (1 forward, 1 defenceman)
Columbus, 2 (2x forwards)
NY Rangers, 2 (2x forwards)
Ottawa, 2 (2 forwards)

One-hit wonders (could be just being lucky)

BOS, 1 defenceman
NYI, 1 defenceman
PHI, 1 defenceman
STL, 1 defenceman
SJS, 1 defenceman
CHI, 1 forward
ARZ, 1 forward
FLO, 1 forward
PIT, 1 forward

 

[Flowah]

What is that a list of? It's not elite players. I wouldn't call Tatar or AA or Nyquist elite.

Even if 50% of elite players are found outside the top15, that's a minuscule percentage. There's 6.5 rounds of picks you're comparing to just .5 rounds. You're comparing 195 picks to 15. The 50% chance is vastly better in the top15.

Put another way, if there are 6 elite players in a draft, you have a 20% chance of finding it in the top15 and a 1.5% chance of finding it in the rest of the draft. And that's aggregated. If you separate it by teams it gets even worse. Each team only has 6-10 picks max in the last 6 rounds. Having 6-10 shots at finding the 3/195 players that are elite is awful.

 

[Frk It]

I think it's nowadays a 50/50 split.

50% from Elite Talents will come from Top15 picks. Every team ouside of playoffs have one chance there.

But another 50% of Elite Talents will come outside of TOP15. It's all other draft pick probabilities combined together.

They are there.

Just get lucky with them in maximizing your draft picks and analyzes.

#33 COL, C Ryan O'Reilly
#35 CAR, F Sebastian Aho
#37 CBJ, F Boone Jenner
#43 CHI, LW Brandon Saad
#47 LAK, RW Tyler Toffoli
#51 NYR, C Derek Stepan
#55 MTL, W Artturi Lehkonen
#58 ARZ, C Christian Dvorak
#58 TBL, RW Nikita Kucherov
#60 DET, W Tomas Tatar
#61 LAK, W Wayne Simmonds
#64 FLO, C Vincent Trocheck
#75 NYR, F Pavel Buchnevich
#77 PIT, LW Jake Guentzel
#79 TBL, C Brayden Point
#104 CGY, LW Johnny Hockey
#110 DET, F Andreas Athanasiou
#112 NSH, W Viktor Arvidsson
#121 DET, W Gustav Nyquist
#129 DAL, LW Jamie Benn
#130 OTT, LW Mike Hoffman
#147 MTL, RW Brendan Callagher
#178 OTT, RW Mark Stone
#208 TBL, LW Ondrej Palat


#37 CAR, RD Justin Faulk
#37 BOS, RD Brandon Carlo
#38 NSH, LD Roman Josi
#43 MTL, RD PK Subban
#43 ANA, RD Justin Schultz
#53 NYI, RD Travis Hamonic
#64 COL, RD Tyson Barrie
#66 CAR, RD Brett Pesce
#78 PHI, LD Shayne Gostisbehere
#86 STL, RD Colton Parayko
#95 LAK, LD Alec Martinez
#102 NSH, LD Mattias Ekholm
#106 ANA, RD Sami Vatanen
#114 CGY, LD TJ Brodie
#120 CAR, LD Jaccob Slavin
#131 DAL, RD John Klingberg
#141 LAK, LD Jake Muzzin
#160 ANA, RD Josh Manson
#201 SJS, RD Justin Braun

Looks like Carolina and Tampa Bay has been drafting best on latest years outside of the 1st round.

Let's hire their scouting directors, whatever it would cost. Let's burn some PIZZA money!

But it's improbable to the point where you can't really rely on it. Lists like these are always deceiving. Yes, if you look at the entire league and using picks that encompass 180 picks on a yearly basis, you are going to see that it yields good players.

But your odds of doing that on an individual basis are terrible. Probably something like 1-3% if you want to talk about ACTUAL elite talent, and not players like Justin Braun and Boone Jenner...

 

[Henkka]

More and more I gather is information, it looks like Tampa Bay Lightning's Scouting Director Al Murray could be the best in the business.

Yzerman did hire him from Los Angeles to Hockey Canada, when Stevie was the GM of Hockey Canada.

When Stevie Joined Tampa Bay, Murray followed.

https://www.nhl.com/lightning/team/hockey-staff/al-murray

Before coming to Tampa Bay, Murray served with Hockey Canada for three years as head scout of men's national teams. During his time with Hockey Canada, he was responsible for all player evaluations and selections for National Junior Team as well as the National Men's Under-18 Team. He also worked with regional under-17 programs. Murray won the Gold Medal at both the 2008 and 2009 World Junior Championships, and won gold at the 2008 World Under-18 Championship. He won championships with the National Men's Summer Under-18 Team at the 2008, 2009 and 2010 Ivan Hlinka Memorial Tournaments.

Prior to joining Hockey Canada, Murray spent 12 years with the Los Angeles Kings, serving as director of amateur scouting.

So this guy did scout LA Kings SC Winning teams.

He is his track record:

2014 (7 picks)
Anthony De Angelo
Brayden Point

2013 (6 picks)
Jonathan Drouin

2012 (8 picks)
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Cedric Paquette
Jake Dotchin

2011 (6 draft picks):
Vladislav Namestnikov
Nikita Kucherov
Nikita Nesterov
Ondrej Palat

**************

2008 (9 picks)
Drew Doughty
Slava Voynov

2007 (10 picks)
Wayne Simmonds
Alec Martinez
Dwight King

2006 (9 picks)
Jonathan Bernier
Trevor Lewis

2005 (8 picks)
Anze Kopitar
Jonathan Quick

Didn't went any longer, because before 2005 NHL was different.

Nice video about the guy at 2017 Entry draft.

Al Murray about 2017 draft

 

[ArGarBarGar]

The point is that at some point we are talking about diminishing returns. That's what the league wants. The balance where the worst teams still have the best odds, but the odds aren't good enough to incentivize teams to be bad. That's what the goal of this lottery re-structure was.

Which I think was a boogeyman invented by people who watched a team here and there do a hard rebuild, made to look even worse when Buffalo was tanking and their fans cheered for the other team to win.

What makes tanking less honorable than just being regular bad because you decided not to trade your good assets for picks?

 

[BinCookin]

Another thought- I agree with Provenzano (the athletic) when he warned about the pitfalls of hoarding picks while attempting to rebuild properly:

A garbage pick for Ott and a bunch of 3rd rounders aren't moves of a team searching to rebuild. We need 1st's or realistically with how little the Wings have to offer 2nd's to increase our odds of finding core players.

Ya, but every GM knows this. 1st round picks are becoming more and more "not traded". As this new trend towards a top player traded for 2 2nd round picks is becoming more common.

 

[Run the Jewels]

You are at some point going to have to admit that if revenue is the biggest motivation, then icing a contender comes second. And if it comes second, it will almost necessarily suffer to prop up revenue. And if that's true, then how can you simultaneously defend all of Holland's moves as being best for the team *and* that they're just being made because the owners want money?

Besides, what makes more money? 5 playoff appearances with 1 cup finals and 5 playoff misses, or 10 playoff 1st round exits? Hell, at the rate we're going, we're not going to be doing either of them, all in the name of "revenue."

We could sell all our picks next season and our entire farm team for some good players right now and make the playoffs this season. Maybe even go to the 2nd or 3rd round. That would get plenty of good revenue for the new arena! It would be an idiotic decision though. This is where you say "Holland would never do that because that's dumb and shortsighted" but I'd say what we're doing now is almost just as dumb and shortsighted. We're still huge longshots to make the playoffs and we're not bad enough to get a high pick. We're the worst of both worlds. You keep trying to sell this as the only way for either money reasons or because a 1st overall isn't a guarantee. But all you've done is try to justify that we are mired in mediocrity forever.

It's an argument you never heard Mike Ilitch make, bless his soul. The goalposts keep getting moved and the final inch of land the status quo people have to stand on is revenue. Unfortunately that argument fell apart the past couple years as it became painfully obvious making the playoffs is a crap shoot at best. Hey everybody, we want to make the playoffs! Good for us! Woohoo! Make sure you tell that to every other team in the east that is competing for playoff spots but have much more talent on their rosters. Maybe they will take it easy on us!

Detroit ain't Toronto or Montreal when it comes to unlimited demand for tickets. I think this year the team will do alright with ticket sales due to the novelty of a new arena. I imagine the Ilitch family will make gobs more money now that they control pretty much every revenue stream attached to the venue. If that's the case and they can make money while icing a crappy team I am certainly not going to be one of those people who cheers on an owner who can be profitable while icing a mediocre product. Sorry, simply trying our best to make the playoffs isn't a goal that really interests me. I can't really understand why people defend that, as if it is something they get some amount of comfort or pride from. The Ilitch family made money on the Red Wings this year! Woohooo!

Now if the franchise still needs to host playoff games in order to make money well the revenue people are going to have to eventually figure out this team isn't built to be profitable. Certainly not with all the awful contracts Holland has given out to players who will never carry the load necessary to be a consistent playoff team. So you either do everything in your power to rid yourselves of the awful contracts - hey it's one way to be profitable! Or you need to compete with every other team in the league in order to acquire enough talent to put yourself in a position to make the playoffs and win a round or two every now and then in order achieve your holy grail of profitability.

I personally don't give a **** about profitability. I'm like Mike Ilitch in that regard I guess. And hey, if it results in the REVENUE people finally figuring out what needs to be done in order to be profitable well that's great too. Let them come along for the ride.

 

[Run the Jewels]

But it's improbable to the point where you can't really rely on it. Lists like these are always deceiving. Yes, if you look at the entire league and using picks that encompass 180 picks on a yearly basis, you are going to see that it yields good players.

But your odds of doing that on an individual basis are terrible. Probably something like 1-3% if you want to talk about ACTUAL elite talent, and not players like Justin Braun and Boone Jenner...

Yep, the math is pretty clear. Yet we hear this again and again. It is possible to draft a really good d-man in the second round. The problem is the Wings haven't done it since the guys in the latest draft class were born.

But yes Anything Can Happen!

 

[StargateSG1]

It's an argument you never heard Mike Ilitch make, bless his soul. The goalposts keep getting moved and the final inch of land the status quo people have to stand on is revenue. Unfortunately that argument fell apart the past couple years as it became painfully obvious making the playoffs is a crap shoot at best. Hey everybody, we want to make the playoffs! Good for us! Woohoo! Make sure you tell that to every other team in the east that is competing for playoff spots but have much more talent on their rosters. Maybe they will take it easy on us!

Detroit ain't Toronto or Montreal when it comes to unlimited demand for tickets. I think this year the team will do alright with ticket sales due to the novelty of a new arena. I imagine the Ilitch family will make gobs more money now that they control pretty much every revenue stream attached to the venue. If that's the case and they can make money while icing a crappy team I am certainly not going to be one of those people who cheers on an owner who can be profitable while icing a mediocre product. Sorry, simply trying our best to make the playoffs isn't a goal that really interests me. I can't really understand why people defend that, as if it is something they get some amount of comfort or pride from. The Ilitch family made money on the Red Wings this year! Woohooo!

Now if the franchise still needs to host playoff games in order to make money well the revenue people are going to have to eventually figure out this team isn't built to be profitable. Certainly not with all the awful contracts Holland has given out to players who will never carry the load necessary to be a consistent playoff team. So you either do everything in your power to rid yourselves of the awful contracts - hey it's one way to be profitable! Or you need to compete with every other team in the league in order to acquire enough talent to put yourself in a position to make the playoffs and win a round or two every now and then in order achieve your holy grail of profitability.

I personally don't give a **** about profitability. I'm like Mike Ilitch in that regard I guess. And hey, if it results in the REVENUE people finally figuring out what needs to be done in order to profitable well that's great too. Let them come along for the ride.

I don't understand why some people are still buying the argument of "revenue" ties to the playoffs.
Unless you go on the long, long run, it's negligible.
1 Playoff game brings in 1 million bucks, best case scenario.
They should be worried that fans stay away for 41 regular season games, watching the garbage roster suffer on the ice game in and game out.

Last summer an intern from Michigan told me that the Wings are already an "afterthought" there and that no one really cares.
Local TV viewership fell 37%, if I remember correctly.

That should make Chris Ilitch really scared.

 

[Frk It]

Ya, but every GM knows this. 1st round picks are becoming more and more "not traded". As this new trend towards a top player traded for 2 2nd round picks is becoming more common.

Good players still get firsts. Shattenkirk and Hanzal returned 1st's even as pure rentals. We really do need to try and pull off getting a year or two with multiple 1st rounders.

I don't see why if Hanzal could return a 1st why someone like Tatar couldn't? If Yandle can return a 1st, don't see why Mike Green couldn't. I mean, Ryan Reaves and a 2nd rounder got St. Louis an extra 1st rounder this year. We just have to be more creative on the trade front. And we need to firmly identity ourselves as a seller and a team that is re-building.

 

[ArGarBarGar]

I don't understand why some people are still buying the argument of "revenue" ties to the playoffs.
Unless you go on the long, long run, it's negligible.
1 Playoff game brings in 1 million bucks, best case scenario.
They should be worried that fans stay away for 41 regular season games, watching the garbage roster suffer on the ice game in and game out.

Last summer an intern from Michigan told me that the Wings are already an "afterthought" there and that no one really cares.
Local TV viewership fell 37%, if I remember correctly.

That should make Chris Ilitch really scared.

Hell, if the Forbes numbers are to believed, the Red Wings were seeing diminishing returns as early as 2010.

The idea that the Ilitch family should be looking at the immediate future instead of the long term stability of the franchise is mind boggling to me.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

I think it's nowadays a 50/50 split.

50% from Elite Talents will come from Top15 picks. Every team ouside of playoffs have one chance there.

But another 50% of Elite Talents will come outside of TOP15. It's all other draft pick probabilities combined together.

They are there.

Just get lucky with them in maximizing your draft picks and analyzes.

#33 COL, C Ryan O'Reilly
#35 CAR, F Sebastian Aho
#37 CBJ, F Boone Jenner
#43 CHI, LW Brandon Saad
#47 LAK, RW Tyler Toffoli
#51 NYR, C Derek Stepan
#55 MTL, W Artturi Lehkonen
#58 ARZ, C Christian Dvorak
#58 TBL, RW Nikita Kucherov
#60 DET, W Tomas Tatar
#61 LAK, W Wayne Simmonds
#64 FLO, C Vincent Trocheck
#75 NYR, F Pavel Buchnevich
#77 PIT, LW Jake Guentzel
#79 TBL, C Brayden Point
#104 CGY, LW Johnny Hockey
#110 DET, F Andreas Athanasiou
#112 NSH, W Viktor Arvidsson
#121 DET, W Gustav Nyquist
#129 DAL, LW Jamie Benn
#130 OTT, LW Mike Hoffman
#147 MTL, RW Brendan Callagher
#157 CBJ, RW Cam Atkinson
#178 OTT, RW Mark Stone
#208 TBL, LW Ondrej Palat


#37 CAR, RD Justin Faulk
#37 BOS, RD Brandon Carlo
#38 NSH, LD Roman Josi
#43 MTL, RD PK Subban
#43 ANA, RD Justin Schultz
#53 NYI, RD Travis Hamonic
#64 COL, RD Tyson Barrie
#66 CAR, RD Brett Pesce
#78 PHI, LD Shayne Gostisbehere
#86 STL, RD Colton Parayko
#95 LAK, LD Alec Martinez
#102 NSH, LD Mattias Ekholm
#106 ANA, RD Sami Vatanen
#114 CGY, LD TJ Brodie
#120 CAR, LD Jaccob Slavin
#131 DAL, RD John Klingberg
#141 LAK, LD Jake Muzzin
#160 ANA, RD Josh Manson
#201 SJS, RD Justin Braun

Looks like Carolina and Tampa Bay has been drafting best on latest years outside of the 1st round.

Let's hire their scouting directors, whatever it would cost. Let's burn some PIZZA money!

EDIT:

Teams with most hits outside of 1st:

Carolina, 4 (1x forward, 3x defenceman)
Los Angeles, 4 (2x forward, 2x defenceman)
Anaheim, 3 (3x defenceman)
Nashville, 3 (1x forward, 2x defenceman)
Montreal, 3 (2x forward, 1 defenceman)
Tampa Bay, 3 (3x forward)
Detroit, 3 (3x forward)
Dallas, 2 (1 forward, 1 defenceman)
Colorado, 2 (1 forward, 1 defenceman)
Calgary, 2 (1 forward, 1 defenceman)
Columbus, 2 (2x forwards)
NY Rangers, 2 (2x forwards)
Ottawa, 2 (2 forwards)

One-hit wonders (could be just being lucky)

BOS, 1 defenceman
NYI, 1 defenceman
PHI, 1 defenceman
STL, 1 defenceman
SJS, 1 defenceman
CHI, 1 forward
ARZ, 1 forward
FLO, 1 forward
PIT, 1 forward

You really, really need to work on your definition of Elite Talent.

 

[Run the Jewels]

I don't understand why some people are still buying the argument of "revenue" ties to the playoffs.
Unless you go on the long, long run, it's negligible.
1 Playoff game brings in 1 million bucks, best case scenario.
They should be worried that fans stay away for 41 regular season games, watching the garbage roster suffer on the ice game in and game out.

Last summer an intern from Michigan told me that the Wings are already an "afterthought" there and that no one really cares.
Local TV viewership fell 37%, if I remember correctly.

That should make Chris Ilitch really scared.

Yeah, I think it's mostly people who defend the status quo looking for any "defense" they can find to do absolutely nothing. This isn't a good hockey team and we aren't a slam dunk to make the playoffs. Management has been peddling retool on the fly since the first salary cap was put into place.

It's all been a total failure. Ken Holland has one year left on his contract so he pretty much looks for any reason to keep doing what you've been doing and hope you can luck into one more playoff appearance. Anything can happen!!!

I fully understand why Ken Holland is doing this. I have no understanding of how a single fan can be gullible enough to believe this is an appropriate route and is in the best interest of the franchise. The scary prospect is if Martin or Draper replace Holland and they follow the exact same path. It only makes any sense for a guy like Holland who is at the very end of his tenure and is too timid and tired to do the actual work that is necessary.

To be fair Holland is in a great place to start building out the next core. If this draft class is as good as expected he should be able to acquire multiple first rounders and bring in some high quality skill. I don't want his scouting team involved in another draft if it can be avoided but Holland absolutely can set up the future of the franchise by acquiring 2 or more additional first rounders. Unfortunately he's hell bent on trying to make the playoffs one last time. I hope we don't look back at this draft and have to ask "what if" while we spend the next decade as one of the ten worst teams in the league.

 

[Red Stanley]

Man, that's depressing.

This lottery re-structure is a good measure to deter teams from tanking. But man, it just makes re-building for teams looking to get their new core so much harder.

Like, I understand you have to protect the integrity of the product, and teams jockeying for last place does not help. But when you have teams like Edmonton get multiple #1 picks and STILL take forever to re-build, how are teams supposed to get out of the basement with a best case scenario of a 48.1% chance at a top 3 pick?

I don't see how teams don't flounder forever and pressure the NHL to throw them a rope with this lottery system.

The Oilers mismanaged their high draft picks. They also got really lucky when it counted the most. Call it a combination of the two extremes at work. I'm glad the NHL is moving away from the welfare state that used to be the draft. It goes hand-in-hand with the salary cap they instituted and the parity league they wanted. If some teams scrape bottom for too long, it would point to an organizational problem, rather than a systemic one, but with such a small sample size it's hard to be certain one way or the other just yet.

 

[Flowah]

This isn't a good hockey team and we aren't a slam dunk to make the playoffs.

That's being generous.

If anything we're a slam dunk to miss.

 

[StargateSG1]

That's being generous.

If anything we're a slam dunk to miss.

With this Defense they are about to "unleash" on the NHL,
it's a bottom 3 finish potential for sure.